Can India do a Falklands war type campaign if PLAN takes over Andamans

[Ray]

It is feasible for China to plan to capture Andaman and Nicobar with PLAN.

It is also possible for China to undertake logistic backup through Myanmar.

However, the point is that the PLAN has to have an adequate flotilla to pass through the Malacca Straits. The PLAN should be able to carry a Division plus worth of troops, weapons including artillery etc. Imagine the size of that force! Will the US or India permit such a force to move through the Malacca straits.

China can surely push logistics through Myanmar, but it has to have adequate ships to ferry it to Andaman and Nicobar. To have such a fleet mustered in Myanmar would require it to pass through Malacca Straits. Would that not give away the strategic surprise.

I have got to go. When I return I will elaborate.

 

[Param]

If France wanted to take over Car Nicobar, it could be done with relative ease. There isn't much protecting it and a nice juicy airbase with no combat aircraft. One Mistral should be plenty in a sneak attack. Move in a couple SAMP-T and Rafale squadrons and 4getaboutit.

A good reason for us to have a true ICBM.

France could easily launch cruise missiles at any of big cities close to the coast. Maybe even carry out airstrikes from CDG. Nuclear submarines could play havoc.
But the risk of huge losses to the French is what will keep them out. India is not Iraq or Libya or Yugoslavia. THOSE COUNTRIES DID NOT HAVE THE CAPABILTY TO BRING DOWN ENEMY AIRCRAFT , FORGET ABOUT SHIPS OR SUBS.Hence it was a cake walk.

 

[debasree]

Oh really? I doubt Mi-8s are going to do jack to Tiger attack helos. There is practically no garrison on Car Nicobar and it has the only mil spec airbase in the whole chain.

really , big mouth ,in ww-2 u also say it to najis and what happened next everybody knows it.and more over we r not small country like algeria ,one mistral ship will be a good target for the brahmos capable ships .

 

[Kunal Biswas]

1. This scenario is only meaningful in the context of a India-Pakistan/ China war, where hostilities are breaking out in multiple fronts. The thrust at the Islands will be essentially aimed at keeping the merchant marine open for PRC - especially oil and raw materials.

True, But it need the important assets to conduct such operation which simple PLAN dont have..

2. (If I am in charge of PLAN operations to take Great Nicobar ) The first idea would be to get a supply lien through Burma. It won't be easy - the allies did it in WW-2, called the famous "Burma road". It would be a long winding road through the mountains and jungles of Burma, but it will reach the coast all the way from China. Once this road is established (a lot of work has already been done, by the way), I would push thousands of tonnes of supplies into the PRC built ports in China - pretext, trade and infrastructure development in Burma. The Junta will keep quiet since the PRC is their godfather. I will also secretly build up a significant naval personnel presence in these ports. Remember, you do not need to have destroyers and aircraft carriers to invade a little inhabited island. You need infantry (marines) and engineers and equipment and shallow water vessels to land them. One container ship from PRC, stationed in Burma can be modified to carry several landing crafts for an invasion.

1. You are ignoring the facts are posted by me before..
2. Burma military regime have far better relation with India and Indian Army..

Rest is not feasible as Burma never allow itself to be some one pawn..

3. The first shots obviously will not be fired in this front. The opening volleys will come through Pakistan in the west, followed by PLA/ PLAAF in the north east. Once India is engaged in these areas, PLAAF will carry out a series of sorties on the eastern shores and the Andaman Islands, probably using missiles and LGBs from their "crappy fighters" like J-7Bs and JH-7s.

4 As IAF gets engaged in thwarting PLAAF, a PLAN task force will sail from Burma and take over a small area of Great Nicobar island with marines, engineers and hundreds of tonnes of equipment. The PLAN engineers will start assembling shore based guns, SAM batteries and preparing an airfield. With the heavy equipment and engineering skills PLAN will have a working airfield in place in 2-3 days, where a squadron of PLAAF J-10B and PLAN J-15B fighters can be flown over from China/ Burma and stationed. A squadron of PLA attack Helos and a few transport Helos can also be sent over to the island.

The BOLD part is correct but let me correct rest..

1st You need to know where the crappy fighter will come ?, What is their path ?, Thier is no possible way except from carrier fighters around South China Sea..

Second, PLAAF combat fighter strength is low compare to sum of all Neighbors fighter force, Their will be a detachment specifically for the Job, Where we have half of IAF modern Fighter based in major location, In that scene they are out numbered..

Also you should know what is Indian strength before overestimate PRC forces..

If you think this is unconvincing, please read about Iwo Jima ...

Do IJF have air-support on the Island ?
Do they have a Effective navy then..
What type of Air accets were their by then ?

Find above and compare to the info i posted on page 2..

 

[Armand2REP]

really , big mouth ,in ww-2 u also say it to najis and what happened next everybody knows it.and more over we r not small country like algeria ,one mistral ship will be a good target for the brahmos capable ships .

And Napoleon defeated every corner of Germany and most of Europe... history is the past. Mistral in peaceful stance can sneak up and launch a battalion before you even know it is on the island. Bang bang and it is over in an hour. Any ship in range of Mistral would be sunk by Rafales in a matter of minutes.

 

[Yusuf]

I think we are moving away from the main point of the thread that is a chinese attack on AnN.

Armand, what you say may be only good for a hit and scoot mission, not occupation. We are talking about chinese takeover of the islands which is not feasible as it cannot be sustained.

Lets say they have mistral and sneak up on India, they will be sitting ducks once India realizes what happened. They are not going to gain anything from it.

 

[pankaj nema]

Let us see what information we already have in the public domain

Andamans have huge huge strategic importance

Just yesterday there was a news that Eastern fleet would be further strengthened BECAUSE of Chinese threat

This news also mentioned that RIGHT NOW Eastern FLEET has got 50 major warships ;some armed with Brahmos missiles ; of the Indian Naval Fleet ; out of the total Indian Naval fleet of 170 major warships .

Secondly India has a tri services command in Andamans

There have been news reports of Sukhois being planned to be stationed there

Thirdly India has been raising army brigades for marine warfare

India already has INS Jalashwa and some other small LPD s

So the people who have a full time job of protecting India ie the armed forces ;are aware of ALL POSSIBLE threats and how to neutralise them

SO our armed forces must be having undisclosed and secret plans to deal with such eventuality because THIS THREAT is REAL ie PLAN trying to takeover Andamans .

 

[Suryakiran]

@ace009

If they launch from Chennai, great Nicobar is only 1600 KMs, MKI has almost double that range. Using refullers even Mirages can target any forces located in that region

Distance by Sea (In Kms.)
Between Port Blair & Chennai 1190
Between Port Blair & Calcutta 1255
Between Port Blair & Vishakapatnam 1200

Distance by Air Kms.
Between Calcutta & Port Blair 1303
Between Chennai & Port Blair 1330


Since the round trip is less than 3000 km from the above mentioned places in South and East India, MKI's and other medium air crafts can easily reach Andaman and Nicobar islands from air bases in Chennai or Vishakapatnam or Kolkata. IN has a huge Navy Airbase near Chennai in the place called Arakonam named INS Rajali where Tupolev Tu-142MK-E Aircraft are based. And, IAF has air base in Car Nicobar islands. Air force can maintain a sustained bombardment on Chinese forces and supply lines on any (hypothetical) misadventure by China to take over A&N islands. Looking at the geography, India can target and destroy the supply lines from Burma and at the same bombard any Chinese forces that has managed to land in the A&N islands.

 

[Suryakiran]

And Napoleon defeated every corner of Germany and most of Europe... history is the past. Mistral in peaceful stance can sneak up and launch a battalion before you even know it is on the island. Bang bang and it is over in an hour. Any ship in range of Mistral would be sunk by Rafales in a matter of minutes.

While France is landing its troops in A&N islands, what do you think Indian forces will be doing?

Did you say "Mistral in peaceful stance can sneak up and launch a battalion before you even know it is on the island"????? Bang bang and it is over in an hour??? lol... excellent dream man.

Air craft carrier is not a toy which you can put it into your pocket and sneak it in without getting noticed. Mistrel will be accompanied by a complement of ships and it is too big to get unnoticed. If a CWG passing through the sea near the A&N islands, every movement of that CWG will be monitored. And, do you think you can take out a well fortified and completely manned and well guarded tri-service military base with a battalion with size 300–1,300 (I donno the size of French battalion)? Not possible even in dreams.

 

[ace009]

Distance by Sea (In Kms.)
Between Port Blair & Chennai 1190
Between Port Blair & Calcutta 1255
Between Port Blair & Vishakapatnam 1200

Distance by Air Kms.
Between Calcutta & Port Blair 1303
Between Chennai & Port Blair 1330


Sonce the round trip is less than 3000 km from the above mentioned places in South and East India, MKI's and other medium air crafts can easily reach Andaman and Nicobar islands from air bases in Chennai or Vishakapatnam or Kolkata. IN has a huge Navy Airbase near Chennai in the place called Arakonam named INS Rajali where Tupolev Tu-142MK-E Aircraft are based. And, IAF has air base in Car Nicobar islands. Air force can maintain a sustained bombardment on Chinese forces and supply lines on any (hypothetical) misadventure by China to take over A&N islands. Looking at the geography, India can target and destroy the supply lines from Burma and at the same bombard any Chinese forces that has managed to land in the A&N islands.

The distance between Great Nicobar island and Andaman is about 500 kms. Adding that to the distances you have already mentioned (1200 + 500) means that MKIs with ~3000 km ferry range, cannot reach Great Nicobar from the mainland AND do much good. Maybe with air launched Brahmos or Nirbhay they can do some strikes.
If PLAN gets a beachhead in Great Nicobar, I am not sure the tri-services would like to keep the MKI like advance jets in the Car Nicobar air-base, since it is too close to the PLAN beach head. Maybe LCAs or Mig 21 Bisons. The airbases near Port Blair might be the only one usable for the MKI.
Also, remember that if the PLAN gets a toehold in the Great Nicobar islands, the first thing they deploy will be SAM and anti-Aircraft batteries to deter IAF or IN air strikes.
The sea supply lines from Burma maybe the weakest link, but even those will be heavily guarded by fighters from the Chinese mainland flying over Burma.
Also, the Chinese have built TWO ports in Burma - Moulmein and Dawei (Tavoy) and they are building a rail link from China to Dawei (links below). Dawei is only 550 miles (~800 kms) from Great Nicobar island and can be used to supply a landing force there. Also, PLAAF fighters based in Dawei can easily reach and provide air cover to supply convoys and air defense to landing parties in the Great Nicobar area.

As for all the claims of "India can bomb the shit out of any PLA misadventure in the Andamans - that is the precise reason of this post - to figure out if it is really true, if IA/ IAF/ IN have the necessary infrastructure and if they are preparing for something like this. Also, I never said anything about Andamans, I doubt the PRC would like to invade that far north. But Great Nicobar is the southern-most island, right in the mouth of the Malacca straits and is 500 kms from Port Blair. It has a minimal garrison, no military air field (a small air field however, which can be modified by a landing force to land military planes).
Also, the nearest air base is in Car Nicobar, which in itself is not well defended. So, before the members blow this thread off, I would again appeal to you to see what PLAN/ PLAAF can do and what India needs to do to counter it.
Also remember, this is set for 2020, when IN and PLAN both will have a couple of aircraft carriers.

Asia Times Online :: War trumps investment in Myanmar
Myanmar, China agree to build rail link to seaport - Yahoo! Finance

As for Burma staying neutral, soon, it is expected that Burma will have a power struggle between two factions of the Burmese Junta. India supporting the wrong side (or NOT at all supporting the winning side) may change the Burmese position. Also, PRC is investing in Burma more and more and taking a stranglehold of Burmese foreign trade and international relations (remember, China ALWAYS supports the Junta, India does it SOMETIMES). So, given a choice between PRC and India, Burma may well decide to side with PRC in the future. In international politics, NOTHING is certain - so stating that "Burma will NEVER go with China" is meaningless.
Next, Bombing Burma indiscriminately if it sides with PRC may or may not be feasible, far less a good idea. At that point, India might be at war in two fronts already (Pakistan in the west and China in the North east). Then there would be PLAN in Great Nicobar. Opening a new front with Burma (through the Jungles in the North East) may not be the best idea. India may punish the Burmese LATER, after the war is over, but not right then. So, assume that the actions in the Bay of Bengal area will be more towards taking back Great Nicobar than in punishing Burma.

 

[Yusuf]

Ace, mate indian carrier(s) will be there and their escort ships. There is just no way the Chinese can sneak up on India. we will not require the MKIs, the MiG 29s from Indian carriers will get the job done. Any such misadventure will result in a "Longewala" for the Chinese.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

I still don't know what use the island would serve wasting resources in trying to get an island where they will only be sitting ducks.

 

[ace009]

Ace, mate indian carrier(s) will be there and their escort ships. There is just no way the Chinese can sneak up on India. we will not require the MKIs, the MiG 29s from Indian carriers will get the job done. Any such misadventure will result in a "Longewala" for the Chinese.

I agree, but I am still being the devil's advocate - "what if". You know, someone has to play the devils advocate to flush out details - things are not as simple as they seem. India's resources are still limited and a two fronts war, escalating into a three fronts war may not be easy to handle.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Simplest and quickest thing would be using a squadron for around the clock bombing for a few days.

 

[Param]

Too much paranoia. Like Yusuf said if the Chinese do something like this, it will their Longewala.
Chinese are intelligent enough for not making a stupid move like this.

 

[arya]

as per my info with in 14-16 months china will start a indirect war with india

pakistan will be china face , some thing dangerous is cooking

 

[Param]

as per my info with in 14-16 months china will start a indirect war with india

pakistan will be china face , some thing dangerous is cooking

Chicken curry with excess spice?

 

[Yusuf]

I agree, but I am still being the devil's advocate - "what if". You know, someone has to play the devils advocate to flush out details - things are not as simple as they seem. India's resources are still limited and a two fronts war, escalating into a three fronts war may not be easy to handle.

Well now you have added two and three fronts. I would say India has geography on it's side. The Chinese can't attack from the north and try to open a front in the BoB.

In spite of limited resources, we will be able to defend. Remember the aggressor needs more resources than the defender.

 

[utubekhiladi]

as per my info with in 14-16 months china will start a indirect war with india

pakistan will be china face , some thing dangerous is cooking

china has no-reason to start a direct or indirect war against India at this time. also, pakistan is not foolish enough to wage a war against India for the cause of Chinese. both china and pak have their own set of problems rather than waging war against India. all they can do is sing some duets behind a tree when china offers free weapons to pakistan.

 

[arya]

Well now you have added two and three fronts. I would say India has geography on it's side. The Chinese can't attack from the north and try to open a front in the BoB.

In spite of limited resources, we will be able to defend. Remember the aggressor needs more resources than the defender.

well if you read the history then you will find most of time we fought war at our home so we faced more destruction, it will be better if we fight war at there home

let he enemy keep away as much possible .

if china attack on India then they will try to destroy maximum on first attack china will try to give us maximum damage on first attack