Rafale option – A strategic blunder
By
(Brig (retd) GB Reddi) -
January 27, 2016
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http://www.orangenews9.com/rafle-option-a-strategic-blunder/
The cost of 36 Rafale fighters is an astronomic sum of US $8 billion (over Rs. 52,000 crores) – over Rs. 1440 crores per fighter. That figure would include the cost of an initial scale of weaponry and spare parts, as well as hangar facilities. And, their induction is spread over 2 years, that is, by 2018.
Most important, rapid obsolescence of Rafale fighters is real sooner than later what with induction of Gen 5 fighter aircraft more agile and with stealth features becoming a reality by 2020. Furthermore, Rafael’s first demonstration flight was in 1986. So, it is nearly 30 years old design.
War is ruled out in a short term context particularly in the context of nuclear weapons deterrence capability. Alarmists invoke “two front” war to justify empire building knowing full well that country’s economy cannot sustain “numbers superiority’ in present context.
Is there a necessity to opt for such a super cost option? The comparative data between the Indian Air Force with Pakistan Air Force and the Chinese Air Force is highlighted to provide an insight.
Ipso facto, India would have 272 SU 30 MKI multi role fighters Su 30 MKI (from the present 224) by 2018-2019. Along with 59 upgraded Mirage 2000 fighters, the IAF would have equipped nearly 17+ squadrons of Generation 4 fighters. Also, 4 squadrons of MIG 29 air superiority fighters.
In contrast, Pakistan would be having 14+ squadrons (233 ) of multi role fighters: F-!6 A & B – 50 (Sqns 3); JF 17 – 60 (Sqns 3+); Mirage IIIO – 50 (Sqns 3); Mirage 5F – 73 (Sqns 4+). It has one squadron air superiority fighters (18) F 16 C & D.
So, IAF has definite edge over PAF both quantitatively and qualitatively what with all SU-30 MKIs upgraded to ‘Super Cruise” capability upgraded with state-of-the-art avionics and Beyond Visual Range Missiles (ASTRA & BRAHMOS).
Next the Chinese PAAF capability includes 556 multi role fighters (J-16 – 3 (In service 2014); J-10 (4.5 Gen) – 240+; Su-30 MKK – 73; Xian JH-7 FBs – 120; Q-5 – 120); air superiority fighters 280 (J-11 (4.5 Gen) – 205+; and Su-27– 75); and interceptors J-8 all types – 144 and J-7 all types – 528.
If so, the accretion of 36 Rafale’s cannot meet IAF requirement to counter the Chinese capability. Let none suffer from illusions on the above count.
Next, the cost comparison of Rafale fighters with in-service fighters in the IAF clearly exposes intellectual bankruptcy of decision makers. For one Rafale, 4-8 indigenously produced fighters can be acquired. After all, the cost of Sukhoi-30MKI is only Rs. 358 crores per fighter. Even the cost of Tejas Mk 2 would considerably lower.
Add to it, the astronomical operational costs of Rs.11 lakhs per hour. And, the costs of maintenance and replacement of engines after every 1500 flying hours also needs to be taken into consideration – life cycle costs.
Considering that China has already demonstrated prototype of Gen-5 system, the choice of ‘Rafale” to be the mainstay of IAF for 13-15 years is patently absurd.
At best, ‘Rafale’ may be a short term substitute and mothballed sooner than later after induction of T-50 commencing by 2022 or indigenous AMCA by 2025 or even earlier.
More importantly, to buy Rafale fighters in flyaway condition is the abandonment of any “Make in India” component, which is the much trumpeted Modi’s initiative.
When viewed holistically, from all operational, technical, maintenance and financial dimensions, the ‘Rafale” deal is a fraud.
Let me also briefly review India’s Tejas fighter development. On 17 January 2015, the first Tejas Mk I, multi role and multi mission fighter. Now, the final operational clearance (FOC) has been reportedly given.
The Tejas Mk I assembly line was established at a cost of Rs 1,556 crore. It plans to build four Tejas Mark I by March 2016; another eight by March 2017; and crank up production to 16 fighters annually by March 2018. HAL is worried about the future of its production line after it delivers 40 Mark I fighters by end-2019.
HAL sees a four-year gap between the last Tejas Mark I and the first Tejas Mark II as seriously disruptive. Building 80 Tejas Mark I-A, which is under development, is a way of bridging that gap. After 2019, the production line would be idle till the Tejas Mark II enters production. Keeping the line running is essential, so that skilled manpower does not have to be redistributed; and a steady flow of orders can be placed on sub-vendors.
HAL argues that the Mark I’s GE F-404IN engine, which generates 84 kiloNewtons (kN) of peak thrust, would meet the IAF’s performance requirements, if one tonne is shaved off the Tejas Mark I’s empty weight of 6,500 kg. In that case, the GE F-414INS6 engine’s 98 kN of thrust would be needed only for the naval Tejas, which must take off from the short runway of an aircraft carrier deck.
Under development is also Tejas Mark II featuring more powerful General Electric F414-GE-INS6 engine with 98 KN of thrust and refined aerodynamics to meet the latest Indian Air Force Requirements. ADA is procuring 99 GE-F414-INS6 engines to power the Tejas Mk-2 and LCA Navy. Under the contract, the first lot of the engines with 95-100 KN power will be supplied by the GE Aero Engines and the rest would be manufactured in India under transfer of technology.
Most critical is that Tejas Mk II will incorporate fifth-generation jet fighters elements which are intended to make way into the Sukhoi/HAL Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) and HAL Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA).
The Ministry of Defense has sanctioned US$542.44 million (Rs 2,431.55-crore) for ADA to develop the IAF’s Tejas Mk II variant. The IAF is committed to procuring an initial 83 Tejas Mk 2s. The Mark II will feature an indigenous developed active electronically scanned array (AESA) fire control radar named Uttam. The Mk II will also see the incorporation of a new electronic warfare suite which is being jointly developed with Israel. This is to have a new glass cockpit with larger 8 x 12 inch displays. The aircraft also features Digital fly by wire system, fuel dump system, Tailless compound delta wing and composite structure which improve performance, maintainability and survivability and make it supersonic at all altitudes.
Other main upgrades includes higher thrust engine, Structural weight reduction. Upgraded Flight Control computer, In flight refuelling retractable probe, on board oxygen generation system and increased fuel capacity. The Mk II will have some 25-30 percent commonality in parts with the Mk I and these parts are already in production.
India’s first Beyond-visual-range air-to-air missile (BVRAAM) Astra missile developed by the DRDO will be integrated with the first batch of production variant of Tejas Mk II. IAF is keen on getting Astra missile integrated with Tejas MK I and MK II aircrafts. DRDO plans to start production of a missile by 2018-19.
In August 2015, the Indian defense minister stated the first flight of Tejas Mk II is likely to be 2019 with an entry into service in 2022.
Meanwhile, in October 2015, media reports suggested the government has decided to order the modified Tejas Mk I A.
To overcome HAL’s difficulties with building and assembling the Tejas Mark I, ADA proposes to adopt a new production model for the Mark II. The DRDO has chosen private sector companies to manufacture the fighter’s modules (systems and sub-systems). HAL will be responsible for integrating them and testing and delivering them to the IAF.
ADA has completed the preliminary design of the Tejas Mark II, but now the detailed design will be done. HAL would have to refine and upgrade the systems it developed for the Tejas. HAL is reluctant to participate in developing the Mark II.
What is therefore needed is to fast pace the induction of Tejas Mk I and I-A and Tejas Mk II. Indigenous production of 36 Tejas Mk 1 should be possible along with the induction of Tejas Mk I-A and Mk II also by 2020. If so, why the sudden haste to purchase outright 36 Rafale fighters at a huge cost to the nation with deliveries spread over 2 years and against the spirit of “Make in India”.
Also, the Sukhoi T-50 – Gen-5 air superiority fighter – joint collaboration between Russia and India – is costing an estimated $ 6 bn to develop with India shouldering about 35% of the cost. The fighter made its first appearance at the MAKS 2011 air show outside Moscow, and is expected to be mass produced by 2015. Having waited so long, Air Force could surely wait for induction of T-50s by 2017.
Furthermore, under design and development is also the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), a Gen-5 Fighter Aircraft being developed by HAL and designed by ADA. It is a single-seat, twin-engine (414-EPE (Enhanced Performance Engine) engines with 120 kN), stealth super maneuverable all weather multirole fighter aircraft. The AMCA’s twin F-414 Enhanced Engine will thus deliver an awesome 220 KM of peak power. The first flight is scheduled for 2018 and it is expected to be in service by 2024. Why not fast track it to an earlier date?
Since the US has agreed for transfer of technology in aero engines, it could be a commercial windfall for GE Aero Engines providing it an assured market for all India’s indigenous fighters. This would include 100 F-404 engines for the Tejas Mark I, another 100 F-414 engines for the Tejas Mark II; and 400 F-414 Enhanced Engines for a planned 200 AMCAs.
Since an aero engine’s life is about 1,500 hours, each fighter – with a service life of 5,000-6,000 hours – consumes 3.5 engines. That means GE could be supplying 700 engines for the Tejas Marks 1 and 2, and 1,400 engines for the AMCA over their service lives. This is a sizeable share of the Indian aero engine market, which the DRDO estimates to be worth Rs 3,50,000 crore over coming decades.
When viewed holistically in the above backdrop, Modi’s choice of ‘Rafale’ appears to be a strategic blunder. He should once again refer the whole issue back to professional and technical experts to review the issue de novo.
The key issue that Modi needs to clarify to the nation is “why he has gone back on his Make in India” strategy. Is it merely a slogan to fool people? Is it to help the French to boost their sagging economy at India’s cost?
Surely, national interests must govern bilateral relationships. French cannot compel us to buy 36 Rafales. Instead, India should consider procuring 1600 Mwe Generation 4 clean nuclear reactors based on transfer of technology, in situation manufacturing of major components along with export of nuclear reactors to other nations just like what has been the agreement signed by China.
