Agni V Missile

Superdefender

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A Game-Changer: Agni-V Marks A Shift In India’s Nuclear Deployment Strategy
Dr. Sanjay Badri-Maharaj - December 16, 2016, 12:36 pm


Snapshot
The planned fourth test of Agni-V will seek to validate the canister launch system as well as the missile’s performance - enabling a state of readiness.

As a mature nuclear power, it behooves India to be a little clearer as to its current nuclear status, and in the meantime, it is hoped that India pursues its missile testing programme as aggressively as possible.




The long awaited fourth test of India’s Agni-V missile will mark a major milestone in the development of India’s Credible Minimum Deterrent posture (CMD). Expected in late 2015 or early to mid-2016, this test has been delayed for a number of reasons, technical and political. Now reportedly scheduled for either the last week of December (the 26th being mentioned as a possible launch date) or early January 2017, it is to be hoped that nothing prevents the test from being conducted and that it is successful when it finally does take place.

It is pertinent for readers to appreciate the quite dramatic shift that the eventual deployment of the Agni-V will mark in the evolution of the Indian nuclear arsenal. While the first two launches of the Agni-V – on 19 April 2012 and 15 September 2013 respectively – were of the standard Indian uncanisterised missile, following the patter set with the Agni variants I through IV, the last test on 31 January 2015 was of a canisterised system mounted on a road mobile platform. The planned fourth test will seek to validate the canister launch system as well as the missile’s performance.

Where the Agni-V is a potential game changer is in respect of the implications of its canister-launch system. This enables a missile to be kept in a state of readiness which permits rapid launching as well as offering the potential for reloading the launcher. By being placed on a road-mobile launcher, the missile will be much more survivable in the event of a preemptive strike. This is in contrast to the Agni II and Agni III, which are rail-mobile and thus less flexible. It is interesting to note that India has chosen to keep all of its land-based missiles on mobile launchers as opposed to basing them in underground silos. This has been done to enhance the survivability of these assets. Compared to the Agni-V, the Agni-I through IV variants are shorter ranged and are not encapsulated in a canister. This may be rectified in the case of the Agni-V as the missile lends itself to the canister-based format.

Having missiles in a ready-to-launch mode would invariably mean mating the nuclear warheads to the missiles. It has been the subject of much speculation – some informed and much uninformed – about whether India keeps its missile warheads mated or de-mated. While de-mating warheads is an option with missiles such as the Agni-I to IV, it is not practical with canister-based systems – or with ballistic missile submarines for that matter. The Agni-V thus portends a shift in India’s nuclear deployment strategy.

Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) claims that the Agni-V has a range of “more than 5,500km”. This is a masterly example of obfuscation. Chinese analysts have speculated that the range of the Agni-V exceeds 8,000km and that India is understating the missile’s range deliberately. This assertion has found some support with Indian analysts such as Dr Bharat Karnad agreeing with the estimation and urging India to conduct a full-range test. Whether it is true or not, India should not be shy about declaring the full range of its missiles and testing them accordingly.

The upcoming test of the Agni-V is officially listed as a development trial – the final such test before production begins. However, it is suggested that the opportunity be taken to bring the Strategic Forces Command (SFC) into the trials process and even familiarise them with the production facilities at an early stage. Treating this test as a development-cum-user trial will facilitate faster induction of the Agni-V into the SFC.

Beyond the Agni-V tests, India must start articulating a clearer outline of what its CMD might envisage. This need not be made fully public but right now there is a deafening silence in respect of what CMD entails. Some degree of ambiguity is expected but now, with canister-based ready-to-launch missiles with mated warheads, it may be useful for India to shed a bit more light on its deterrent posture, if only to reassure its own citizens in the face of regular nuclear sabre-rattling from Pakistan and some thinly-veiled threats from China every time India defies Beijing.

Indeed, since India began producing the Agni-II back in 2002, there have been questions about production capacity and the rate of induction of missiles. When Dr Christopher, director general of DRDO indicated that as of 2015 DRDO had met only 20 per cent of the SFC’s missile production capacity requirement and was only now boosting production, eyebrows should have been raised. Indeed, Dr Christopher was very clear that Agni-I and Agni-II would be produced in greater numbers. Where does that leave production of Agni-III, IV and V? Furthermore, given that the range of Agni-III is deemed to be roughly that of Agni-IV, does production of the former make sense? It is reported that thus far, the three launches of Agni-III and two of Agni-IV have been undertaken entirely by the SFC. Does this mean that Agni-III and Agni-IV are in serial production? The answers to these questions have often been somewhat vague with terms like “inducted into service” being common. This does little to give any guidance on what capacity has been developed. That the Agni-I and Agni-II are continuing to be produced and the III and IV being deemed “inducted into service” suggests that multiple production lines exist. Moreover, how do production facilities intend to cope with the pending induction of the INS Arihant and its K-15 (and later K-4) missiles? The answers to these questions cannot, for obvious reasons, be made public, but it is hoped that all necessary consideration and priority is being accorded to developing and sustaining the requisite production capacity.

Furthermore, the SFC has given little indication of its functioning or its capabilities. Only a speech delivered by Shyam Saran, former foreign secretary of India, in 2013, shed some light on command, control and communications features and the chain of command. This was most welcome but it is suggested that some controlled communication from the SFC is necessary and indeed essential to demonstrate the maturity and credibility of the country’s CMD.

Thus, as the intended date for the fourth Agni-V test draws near, it is recommended that the SFC, in consultation with the government, release some information on itself and its functioning and capabilities. In trying to hide everything, there is the risk of the credibility of the deterrent being compromised or excessive ambiguity being raised. As a mature nuclear power on the verge of deploying fully mated warheads on ready to launch missiles, it behooves India to be a little clearer as to its current nuclear status without compromising essential secrecy. In the meantime, it is hoped that India pursues its missile testing programme as aggressively as possible, accepting neither caps nor restrictions on range, production, or deployment of ballistic and induct such systems as are required in as rapid a time as possible. The nation deserves nothing less.

Source Link: http://swarajyamag.com/defence/a-ga...a-shift-in-indias-nuclear-deployment-strategy
 

sbm

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20% missile capacity utilization is pretty pathetic after more than10 years of induction. DRDO is indeed as inefficient as people claim
It isn't DRDO alone. BDL is responsible for production. Payment for orders was also delayed.
 

hit&run

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The article says that Indian defence establishment believes the Agni-V is sufficient to take care of existing threat perceptions.

Is it really enough in Chinese context?
Your skepticism is tenable.

Until unless we do not have arsenal to overwhelm Chinese military assets with conventional BM force Agni V will remain only a tool of deterrence.

Without MIRV and credible robust BM triad with multi launch hardened silos backed by long rage (X-band) radars complimented by continuous satellite monitoring, progress in Agni V series is just one day late and a dolor short affair.
 

Poseidon

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Somebody calculate range:
http://img2.ph.126.net/80jjy7ZcCVkfd2-HE7CV5Q==/6632005649118048407.jpg

Notam:
DTG 221002/DEC
FROM NAVAREA VIII CO-ORDINATOR TO NAVAREA VIII – 784
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BAY OF BENGAL AND INDIAN OCEAN (.) CHARTS 31 INT 70 71 (.) EXPERIMENTAL
FLIGHT TRIAL SCHEDULED FROM ITR ON 26 AND 27 DEC 16 FROM 0300 TO 0700 UTC IN
DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY 20-48.36N 087-02.58E, 19-03.39N 086-26.30E, 06-21.99S 087-05.29E,
06-16.38S 089-21.89E, 05-59.58S 091-37.54E, 19-11.29N 088-02.33E, 20-48.76N 087-07.40E AND
15-24.17S 087-38.14E, 25-19.43S 088-26.10E, 25-10.82S 091-02.58E, 24-53.78S 093-37.96E, 14-59.66S
092-35.90E
2. CANCEL MSG 270800 UTC DEC 16
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
 

Chinmoy

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Somebody calculate range:
http://img2.ph.126.net/80jjy7ZcCVkfd2-HE7CV5Q==/6632005649118048407.jpg

Notam:
DTG 221002/DEC
FROM NAVAREA VIII CO-ORDINATOR TO NAVAREA VIII – 784
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BAY OF BENGAL AND INDIAN OCEAN (.) CHARTS 31 INT 70 71 (.) EXPERIMENTAL
FLIGHT TRIAL SCHEDULED FROM ITR ON 26 AND 27 DEC 16 FROM 0300 TO 0700 UTC IN
DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY 20-48.36N 087-02.58E, 19-03.39N 086-26.30E, 06-21.99S 087-05.29E,
06-16.38S 089-21.89E, 05-59.58S 091-37.54E, 19-11.29N 088-02.33E, 20-48.76N 087-07.40E AND
15-24.17S 087-38.14E, 25-19.43S 088-26.10E, 25-10.82S 091-02.58E, 24-53.78S 093-37.96E, 14-59.66S
092-35.90E
2. CANCEL MSG 270800 UTC DEC 16
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
DANGER ZONE BOUNDED BY 20-48.36N 087-02.58E, 19-03.39N 086-26.30E,
This means a length of 5383 km approx.
 

mayfair

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I wonder if the missile was fired in a depressed trajectory or with manoeuvres to obfuscate the real range.
 

Chinmoy

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Chinmoy

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BTW NOTAM is declared for tomorrow too. Wonder what it would be for?
 

Tarun Kumar

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Oh no, Rout is reporting that the missile was tested for only 2500km. Why would that be?
 

Chinmoy

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Oh no, Rout is reporting that the missile was tested for only 2500km. Why would that be?
Because that's normal. You only need to test it on certain parameters like launch, ejection, telemetry, flight path, CEP. All these doesn't need the missile to cover the whole flight distance. Even with depressed trajectory these tests could be validated.
Moreover the exact range of Agni V is still under curtain.
 

sayareakd

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20% missile capacity utilization is pretty pathetic after more than10 years of induction. DRDO is indeed as inefficient as people claim
BDL is responsible for making missile, DRDO is only developer of the missiles. Its not war time manufacturing, plus we have other pressing needs like lifting the standard of living of our people.

Last but not least, having 25 Agnis with nuke, they can taken out any country with that many cities and ,make them into waste land. But we can only invest up to limit as these nukes and missile dont add to economic activity, after a point they become liability.
 

sayareakd

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yes it can cover ............but we need missiles with MIRV capabilities ..........i think india is doing these tests to develop & master this technology .

India has Nuclear submarines & K-4 Missiles we can hit any part of the world .............
If we can reach Mars and Moon, than surely no spot on the mother earth is unreachable.
 
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Your skepticism is tenable.

Until unless we do not have arsenal to overwhelm Chinese military assets with conventional BM force Agni V will remain only a tool of deterrence.

Without MIRV and credible robust BM triad with multi launch hardened silos backed by long rage (X-band) radars complimented by continuous satellite monitoring, progress in Agni V series is just one day late and a dolor short affair.
I agree to a point. I was hoping for MIRV'd ?? But even a good quantity AGNI's can be enough for China.
 

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