2016 India–Pakistan military confrontation

Akshay_Fenix

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Understanding Pakistan’s New Terror Strategy



Rawalpindi’s intent is very clear: attack the “occupying forces” of India in Jammu and Kashmir

In a media briefing on Thursday, India’s foreign ministry spokesperson Vikas Swarup blamed Pakistan for the recent terrorist attack on the Nagrota army base in Jammu and Kashmir. Although the Line of Control has seen continuous ceasefire violations—it started well before the 29 September surgical strikes—the attack at Nagrota was the biggest terrorist strike since the 18 September Uri attack to which India responded with surgical strikes inside Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. The Nagrota attack also claimed the lives of seven Indian security personnel, including two officers. The terrorists wanted to enter the family quarters and take hostages. This was fortunately averted.

In this sense, the attack was a reminder of the gruesome killings of soldiers and family members in Kaluchak in May 2002. It was significant that Swarup also mentioned the Kaluchak massacre among the terrorist attacks he compared Nagrota to. Perhaps to indicate the seriousness with which the Indian government sees the Nagrota attack, Swarup also cited the attack on Indian Parliament (2001), the 26/11 Mumbai attack (2008), and the Pathankot and Uri attacks earlier this year in the same breath. This clubbing is a good signal of intent but it misses an important difference between the attacks. While 26/11 was aimed at civilians, Pathankot, Uri and Nagrota were aimed at specific defence installations.

In fact, a clear shift can be discerned in the strategy of terrorist handlers in the Pakistani army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Even though 2016 has seen a high number of terrorist attacks, most of them have been aimed at Indian security forces. An attack of 26/11 proportions on civilians is likely to evoke a strong response from the international community. It is worth recalling that a number of foreign nationals were also killed in 26/11.

Most of the attacks in the last couple of years have also happened in Jammu and Kashmir—the Gurdaspur attack (2015) was a notable exception. So, Rawalpindi’s strategy is very clear: attack the “occupying forces” of India in Jammu and Kashmir. To support this strategy, the Pakistan army has, in parallel, supported the protests against the Indian state in the Kashmir valley and elevated the rhetoric on Kashmir on global forums. The ceasefire violations have also increased to help push a greater number of infiltrators inside Kashmir to take advantage of the disaffection in the state.

This argument is important because terrorist groups that are not supported by a state will not have an incentive to make the shift in strategy that the Pakistan-based groups have made. For example, in the month of July, Islamic State (IS) attacked an upmarket cafe in Dhaka killing several civilians—many of them foreigners. Pakistan cannot afford the consequences if terrorist groups based in the country were to launch a similar attack in India. Therefore, it is important to draw the link between Nagrota and Kaluchak, but also state the difference between Nagrota and 26/11.

That the Pakistani army has a good strategy does not mean it is necessarily working. Over the years, the patience in India—and the world—for suffering terrorist attacks is wearing thin. It is for this reason that the US intervened immediately after both Kaluchak and also 26/11 but not after Uri. India made full use of the latitude available to launch the surgical strikes. While the domestic protests in Kashmir have hurt India, Pakistan’s attempt to internationalize “occupation” of Kashmir has not succeeded. On the contrary, India has gone about raising the problems in Balochistan, including in the United Nations General Assembly.

Pakistan has also weathered a rough time diplomatically. All South Asian nations except Pakistan sided with India in boycotting this year’s SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Summit which was to be held in Islamabad. The surgical strikes were also a big embarrassment for the recently retired Pakistani army chief Raheel Sharif. He had spent the last three years building a no-nonsense image. The surgical strikes dented that image significantly. The frustration came through in the form of increased ceasefire violations and terrorist attacks such as the one in Nagrota. Since the Pakistan army never acknowledged the surgical strikes, their response was bound to be shrouded in deniability.

What should be India’s approach? This newspaper continues to believe that the surgical strikes were a step in the right direction. A plethora of other measures on the diplomatic and economic front will be required but there is no solution to the Pakistan problem without the exercise of the hard force option. By responding to Uri—though the surgical strikes were not framed as such officially—India has lowered its threshold for restraint. Pakistan will rejoice if the old strategic restraint is reinstated by India and indeed Nagrota could be an attempt to explore just that. It is equally possible that Sharif wanted to gift his successor, the new Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, a conflict he cannot get out of. No matter what Pakistan’s motivations are, India needs to keep up the pressure.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/u8q...erstanding-Pakistans-new-terror-strategy.html
 
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aditya g

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Thank god for some sane voices coming from the media

I believe actions speak louder than words.... That's why there is no noise from GoI this time. They will let army take revenge as it suits.

What should be India’s approach? This newspaper continues to believe that the surgical strikes were a step in the right direction. A plethora of other measures on the diplomatic and economic front will be required but there is no solution to the Pakistan problem without the exercise of the hard force option. By responding to Uri—though the surgical strikes were not framed as such officially—India has lowered its threshold for restraint. Pakistan will rejoice if the old strategic restraint is reinstated by India and indeed Nagrota could be an attempt to explore just that. It is equally possible that Sharif wanted to gift his successor, the new Pakistan army chief Qamar Javed Bajwa, a conflict he cannot get out of. No matter what Pakistan’s motivations are, India needs to keep up the pressure.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/u8q...erstanding-Pakistans-new-terror-strategy.html
 

India22

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I wonder why Govt. did not order Army and BSF to retaliate heavily when Pakistan just broke ceasefire this time. Comment number 2908. Something is going on.
 

aditya10r

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When the attacks happened I was happy that pakis have been bitten by the snake whom they fed for 40 years.

But in my school(dav a Hindu school chain) announced special prayers,did a candle March and more liberal shit.

Phuck this country is filled with libtards.
 

raheel besharam

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A Border Security Force (BSF) trooper was injured on Friday in a sniper fire from across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri district, police said.

"Around 10 a.m. a BSF trooper was injured in a sniper shot from across the LoC in Bhimber Gali sub-sector of Rajouri," a senior police officer told IANS, noting this was the first ceasefire violation in six days.

_________________________________________

Yet again we are on the receiving end
 

mavles ihctep

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A Border Security Force (BSF) trooper was injured on Friday in a sniper fire from across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir's Rajouri district, police said.

"Around 10 a.m. a BSF trooper was injured in a sniper shot from across the LoC in Bhimber Gali sub-sector of Rajouri," a senior police officer told IANS, noting this was the first ceasefire violation in six days.

_________________________________________

Yet again we are on the receiving end
This wil reduce the efficacy of our anti infiltration grid in LoC. Now more zombies will jump into our territory from across the border.
 

Screambowl

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the fact is

Pakistan has been able to maintain conventional equality with India and those who understand they know what I am talking about.

They kill ours we kill theirs. And then there is seize fire. Pakistan gets some infrastructure loss, India gets the same.

It is a stalemate.
 

raheel besharam

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the fact is

Pakistan has been able to maintain conventional equality with India and those who understand they know what I am talking about.

They kill ours we kill theirs. And then there is seize fire. Pakistan gets some infrastructure loss, India gets the same.

It is a stalemate.
Iska ye matlab thodi hua ki we will not even reply back, at least we can lit up the LoC once again but we are not even doing it .....Only pakis are busy snipping our soldiers
 

Butter Chicken

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Iska ye matlab thodi hua ki we will not even reply back, at least we can lit up the LoC once again but we are not even doing it .....Only pakis are busy snipping our soldiers
No point in having conventional superiority if we are unwilling to use it. If Artillery and mortars are deployed in small numbers,Pakis are equal-equal with us.Deploy them all across LoC and IB,from Gujarat to Poonch
 

Screambowl

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Iska ye matlab thodi hua ki we will not even reply back, at least we can lit up the LoC once again but we are not even doing it .....Only pakis are busy snipping our soldiers
They will no doubt remain aggressive in future also as they are smaller nation, they have no doubt quality and well trained soldiers All the economy and technology we boast about is inactive in this case. Because we are more responsible state and we believe in benefit of the region our single act will be used against India as we play major role and we are competing major Powers, Pakistan is only competing India.

The basic logic behind 1 Pak soldier = 10 Indian soldiers is , Quality Vs Quantity.
And in Quality comes, better war experience, better training, higher motivation, ability to inflict damage, better alertness.

They have taught their soldiers in PMA Kakul that, no one will get martyr before knocking out min 5 Indian soldiers because your strength is low. Just hit when you see an Indian soldier or get a chance to hit.
 

Akshay_Fenix

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Strange, we have maintained complete silence after Nagrota.
We aren't even responding to ceasefire violations and sniper fire.
 
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reddevil9

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Strange, we have maintained complete silence after Nagrota.
We aren't even responding to ceasefire violations and sniper fire.

This silence is killing me.
yes, let us hope this silence is followed by a loud bang.
 

raheel besharam

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They will no doubt remain aggressive in future also as they are smaller nation, they have no doubt quality and well trained soldiers All the economy and technology we boast about is inactive in this case. Because we are more responsible state and we believe in benefit of the region our single act will be used against India as we play major role and we are competing major Powers, Pakistan is only competing India.

The basic logic behind 1 Pak soldier = 10 Indian soldiers is , Quality Vs Quantity.
And in Quality comes, better war experience, better training, higher motivation, ability to inflict damage, better alertness.

They have taught their soldiers in PMA Kakul that, no one will get martyr before knocking out min 5 Indian soldiers because your strength is low. Just hit when you see an Indian soldier or get a chance to hit.
Strange, we have maintained complete silence after Nagrota.
We aren't even responding to ceasefire violations and sniper fire.

This silence is killing me.
today army raided the house of new commander of Hizb who warned about attacks on families of soldiers,...army is concentrating on valley militants using intel inputs and pakis are having a free time by hitting our soldiers, army will get back to pakis soon.

Even im not liking how army is sitting idle and just watching pakis firing at our bunkers
 

Screambowl

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yes, let us hope this silence is followed by a loud bang.
NO
Don't keep such expectations. India is busy in internal turmoil like demonetisation and abusing Indian army. Looks like Pakistan is succeeding.
 

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