Would India have been better off had the Axis won World War II?

AOE

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Not to deflect the points you've just made civfanatic, since I did misunderstand the topic with points like 4 and 6 (well Russia wouldn't exist); instead respond to the other post I made later on which LF agreed with. An Axis victory would have meant the continuation of genocide and colonialism in the world, and I very much doubt that this scenario would have been beneficial to the Indians in the long run.
 

civfanatic

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Hmm.... One point worth considering is if Indians would want this to happen? The Axis powers killed tens of millions of people even when losing the war, imagine the genocide they would have inflicted had they won? Would the Indians be happy with a pro-Axis puppet in charge of their country? What happens if India wanted to move away from such a scenario? Would the Japanese and Germans let them if they are relying on Indian resources? Wouldn't the rest of the world also suffer since quite a large amount of scientific breakthroughs and world prosperity happened under the Americans in the last 65 years?
Even today, India is allied with the same country (Britain) that was responsible for killing millions of Indians and driving the country into poverty, so I doubt the average Indian would care if the government was allied with regimes that killed millions of people with no relevance to India.

S.C. Bose was no puppet. He was a highly popular leader both home and abroad, and he allied with the Japanese only because their interests overlapped.

And no one said America would dissappear in this scenario. I think it is impossible for anyone to conquer America.
 
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AOE

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Even today, India is allied with the same country (Britain) that was responsible for killing millions of Indians and driving the country into poverty, so I doubt the average Indian would care if the government was allied with regimes that killed millions of people with no relevance to India.
Bonus points for compassion there. If that is true then they haven't learned anything from their previous colonial masters.

S.C. Bose was no puppet. He was a highly popular leader both home and abroad, and he allied with the Japanese only because their interests overlapped.
So what happens when those common interests disappear? What happens if Bose or any other leader decides they want to tilt away from the influence of a genocidal Japan? Both Japan and Germany proved during WWII that they would tear up relations and treaties with countries to further their own ideological fanaticism, including the Molotov-Ribbentrop pact, and Japans constant conferencing with other Asian countries to further an anti-western agenda; only to be conquered by Japan later.

And no one said America would dissappear in this scenario. I think it is impossible for anyone to conquer America.
I didn't either, and I agree with you here.
 

Rage

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Hey, this is actually a very good topic.

A few quick thoughts;

Geo-spatially, the following: German domination over North and North-western Europe, satellite states in Vichy France and England, involving some bureaucratic and political-economic friction; Italian domination over South and south-western Europe, and possibly over Northern Africa; Ottoman domination over the Balkan states, with these perhaps eventually disintegrating; and friction with Iran.


Some thoughts on how they would've interacted:


(i) Germany would have created several satellite states in Europe like the Soviet Union; and the Cold War instead would have been fought between the United States and Germany. British control, of course, would immediately have weakened; although if Britain had completely been subsumed under Germany, I doubt they would've allowed Indian independence soon.
(ii) In Asia, Tibet and Manchuria would probably have devolved into puppet states. Japan would certainly logistically not have been able to occupy all of China. If the Azad Hind army had prevailed, as likely would have been the case, it would have unilaterally declared independence and allied itself with Japan, much depending on the interaction between the Azad Hind Army and the Congress. In that situation, two scenarios would prevail: (i) either the subcontinent would have degenerated into many warring factions, eventually splitting and forming several independent, sovereign territories; (ii) Bose would have maintained control with an iron fist, dissipating unrest with terror and turning India into another fascist-state.
(iii) Eventually, my guess is the United States would have prevailed over Germany, for reasons of geo-political and geo-spatial complexity in Europe: Russia is simply too vast to occupy; the United Kingdom was an industrial and entrepreneurial people of its own; and Spain and Portugal were too difficult to govern, , the lack of the same complexities along the U.S.'s contiguous land borders and the eventual adoption of paradoxically different economic systems: the German system was one of top-down bureaucratic-organizational industrie, and would've required several more wars to survive. Although, the Corporatism element of Fascism would have ensured that it prevailed a lot longer than say Communism.
(iv) The global economic situation would probably have been worse, and disparities still wider as state-urged Corporatism took over social-market economics. In the resulting situation, territories with large poor masses like East Asia and the subcontinent would've seen revolutions, that either toppled or were controlled by fascist governments. My guess is: that East-Asia would have seen more Communist revolutions, particularly in the Indonesian archipelago. The UK would of course, have lost all of its Pacific territories.
(v) Central Asia would have remained disintegrated and almost tribalistic; with large German corporations vying for control over its resources.
(vi) Monarchical-japanese culture would probably have dominated East Asia, as it would have dominated trade and industry for a very long time. Perhaps, a level of prosperity, significantly lower than that for the "mainlanders" would have been allowed. Burma and Bangladesh would probably have been very significantly influenced by the Japanese, with Indian culture remaining something of a cross between a proto-Japanese-English-German culture.
The economy, had scenario (ii) in point (ii) prevailed, would have remained early socialist- for population-compelling reasons; eventually degenerating into a corporatist-melange that would've threatened social stability.
(vii) My guess is that the unravellings of this system would begin with the disintegration of the Ottoman empire, with the Middle east degenerating into a cacophony of warring states. Eventually, an uneasy equilibrium would have been maintained between the Ottoman Empire and Iran; with Iran having far more influence in West Asia and Balouchistan-Afghanistan.​
 

AOE

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@Rage:

Ottoman Empire did not exist in WWII. It was dissolved by the allies after WWI.
 

Rage

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@Rage:

Ottoman Empire did not exist in WWII. It was dissolved by the allies after WWI.
Yeeks, I meant the Turkish empire that prevailed after the successful agitation against the Occupation of Constantinople in 1923. I meant it to be, a continuation of the Ottoman empire after the War, it basically being the same thing.
 

AOE

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Oh you mean Turkey under Attaturk. Maybe. They could have been attacked and annexed by the Germans so they could get access to the resources of the Middle-East.
 

Rage

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I also want to add that the new empire, would be very similar to the old (pre-WWI): in its occupation of Egypt, the Balkans, a large part of west- / south west-Asia and the Sudan.

Oh you mean Turkey under Attaturk. Maybe. They could have been attacked and annexed by the Germans so they could get access to the resources of the Middle-East.
I doubt that would have happened: as Attaturk's nationalist doctrine would align itself nicely with Germany's. At that extent, it would have been Imperial Overstretch for both Germany and Italy.
 
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AOE

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I also want to add that the new empire, would be very similar to the old (pre-WWI): in its occupation of Egypt, the Balkans, a large part of west- / south west-Asia and the Sudan.
How would it dominate the balkans if German and Italian forces are already occupying it? If Britain is also defeated, its territories also go to Germany.
 

Rage

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How would it dominate the balkans if German and Italian forces are already occupying it? If Britain is also defeated, its territories also go to Germany.
They don't. In my scenario, the Greeks still win the Greco-Italian war. The German invasion of the Soviet Union ties up valuable axis-forces, as it did in reality, and subsequent resistance movements were able to prevail over German occupation forces. But because Germany and Italiy were able to win the west-European theatre, and decisively, Turkey is left to re-assert its control over the Balkans, under an Attaturk-regime that is friendly to the Germans and because, it is an all out campaign for dominion, what is a much more protracted World War-II.
 

civfanatic

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Bonus points for compassion there. If that is true then they haven't learned anything from their previous colonial masters.
Sometimes, it takes a guy with a stone heart to start a good discussion.

And no, we haven't learnt anything. The most powerful person in India today is a foreigner from Italy, and people hero-worship her as if she has accomplished something. One day, the people might realize that she isn't Indian.


So what happens when those common interests disappear?
To put it bluntly, we start our own version of Vietnam and wage guerilla warfare in the jungles of Northeast India until they haul their asses back to Tokyo.

For the sake of simplicity, I assume that this does not happen.


I didn't either, and I agree with you here.
I think that, in the case of Axis victory, America would have simply reverted to its isolationist policies of the 30s and focused on developing itself.
 

tarunraju

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In that scenario would India hv been able to have a democracy it enjoys today? There could have been no USSR, no UK (or reduced to another Vichy France). The remaining powers surrounding India would hv been the axis Nazi Germany, Italy and Japan, all "totalitarian" plus their likes Spain (Franco) and Portugal. the US would hv been in isolation without the global clout we see today if Allies failed. There could have been no de-colonization in Africa or Mid East as Germany or Italy would have taken over them from old empires.
No, it would not have been able to maintain a democracy. That's interestingly the point. Netaji thought very much like Mao, he felt that India was too backward a country to sustain a democracy right away, and that it needed a single-party authoritarian regime, till a time when it can "afford" to have a multi-party democracy. He felt that authoritarianism was required to get rid of countless social ills, the caste system, and to homogenize the Indian society at large.

Also, many get carried away with Netaji's clout, because he was in good terms with the Japanese and Germans. There's no telling what would have happened in a Nazi-dominated world. For one, there would be no standard international language. Secondly, an authoritarian and industrialized Nazi Germany and Japan would have exploited developing countries even more than the Anglosphere does, today.

5. No Gandhi dynasty in Indian politics, and marginalization of the CONgress Party (this is by far the best benefit).
For one, Netaji's "single-party state" had Indian National Congress as the proposed "single-party". As far as Nehru-Gandhi dynasty goes, I agree. Nehru would have been pulp in the company of Netaji.
 

AOE

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Sometimes, it takes a guy with a stone heart to start a good discussion.

And no, we haven't learnt anything. The most powerful person in India today is a foreigner from Italy, and people hero-worship her as if she has accomplished something. One day, the people might realize that she isn't Indian.
Then why would you expect people to sympathize with the plight of Indians if you do not care for the plight of others?

To put it bluntly, we start our own version of Vietnam and wage guerilla warfare in the jungles of Northeast India until they haul their asses back to Tokyo.

For the sake of simplicity, I assume that this does not happen.
So the new colonial powers of the world; Germany, Japan, Italy, and India live happily ever after. The worlds scientific progress and alleviation of poverty slows down, all for the sake of not being partitioned.

Getting back to reality here, I think even you have said many times that predicting geopolitics is difficult; and assuming that India would remain on the good side of the Axis was not part of the original post. I also note you fail to mention that Japan and Germany could easily do the same in response by sponsoring separatist movements in India, or sailing into the Indian ocean and pummeling Indian cities with air raids, shelling, and perhaps even nuclear weapons. This is not well thought out.

I think that, in the case of Axis victory, America would have simply reverted to its isolationist policies of the 30s and focused on developing itself.
Indeed it would, and the worlds progress would slow down, as I highlighted above. Ironically if India did end up in a war against Japan and Germany, it would have to rely on America as its only formidable friend to help out the Indians from Japanese and German fascism; but it wont because it will be isolationist which is the dream of some of the more extreme left wing pundits on this board. Even if they did get involved, it would be at a far greater cost to human life and resources, and if Germany/Japan had nuclear weapons, they may not be able to get involved at all. The world would be screwed.
 
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Godless-Kafir

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I think India would have been conquered either by the expanding Japanese forces which reached Burman or have been conquered by the Nazis OR With Subash Chandra Bose on the helm we may either be in War with Japan or Germany. The world would be a diffrent place for sure and there would be so many resistance movements against the Japs and Nazis.
 
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civfanatic

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Then why would you expect people to sympathize with the plight of Indians if you do not care for the plight of others?
I don't.


So the new colonial powers of the world; Germany, Japan, Italy, and India live happily ever after. The worlds scientific progress and alleviation of poverty slows down, all for the sake of not being partitioned.
First of all, there were many other countries that were friendly with the Triple Alliance (that is, Germany, Italy, and Japan). These include Hungary, Romania, Spain, Finland, Siam, Persia, Argentina, and many others. India would simply join this "pro-Axis Club" in my alternate scenario.

I also see no reason why the world's scientific progress or poverty alleviation would slow down, considering Germany and Japan were responsible for some of the world's greatest scientific achievments. The Germans were pioneers in the fields of rocketry and jet aircraft, just as an example.

Believe it or not, America is not responsible for all of the world's progress.


Getting back to reality here, I think even you have said many times that predicting geopolitics is difficult; and assuming that India would remain on the good side of the Axis was not part of the original post.
It is now.


I also note you fail to mention that Japan and Germany could easily do the same in response by sponsoring separatist movements in India, or sailing into the Indian ocean and pummeling Indian cities with air raids, shelling, and perhaps even nuclear weapons. This is not well thought out.
As a general rule, it is impossible for a relatively small country (Japan) to conquer a very large country (India) that is united, despite the level of sophistication of the smaller nation. Unity is the key word here.

Also, you haven't explained why Japan would want to invade India in the first place. If you had a choice between invading the world's second most populous country or maintaining good relations with an already friendly government, which would you choose?

The Axis did not invade every country that they came across. They tried using diplomacy whenever possible, even with those countries that were their idealogical enemies. The Allies, however, did a much better job at diplomacy, which is a big reason why they won the war.
 

Nonynon

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I'll try not to get emotional on this.
Radical Islam as we know it was already starting to pick in ww2 and was encouraged by the Axis. Should they win, radical Islam would be turned against them but would still be there. Perhaps even stronger then ever.
Japan and Germany devided Asia with a line going somewhere in the middle and if I'm correct that left India in Japan's part. Japan showed signs of resisting the Germans back from reality times. Hell they even excepted some Jewish refugees and had plans for a Zionist country in the far east. How would Hitler react to that? They are societies completely different culturally, very aggressive and they even have distributes. All the things that can build up a good potential for a future conflict or a Cold war scenario. I'd go for a Cold war scenario because everyone would be exusted after ww2 for a real war. Ideologically, Spain and Italy sound more into Japan but it's hard to say... (Spain had also taken in Jewish refugees and Italy much the same - at least for Hitler's time that can make a huge crisis in Europe but I assume some will give in to Nazism and some join the Jap side) I think the Americas wouldn't be too important so no use trying to hard to predict what happens there. Not in India's case at least.
With those circumstances I just find it hard to think India's position much better or worst. In both cases India would be colonized but with so little energy India would probably achieve independence pretty fast and join someone in the Cold war. There has to be a Cold war because fascism will die out with no one to challenge. I think Looking at Pakistan and Kashimire is looking too much into detail to think much reasonably but if anything then I think on the long term India would be more successful in Kashmire because China would be FU**ED by Japan and only the Muslims would remain, so its a 2 player conflict, not 3.
However, I see almost all the Muslim world under German occupation and that means Germany would really want Muslims to like them so they would strongly support them and yes that means Pakistan if you're lucky.
On the very long term, I don't see a good future for India because both Germans and Japs are racists and will always hate Indians so if the Cold war goes hot (I'd say extremely likely) India will be in the middle of everything and will probably end up a lot less populated to say the least. Remember, Nukes.
If Nukes somehow prevent the world war (wouldn't count on it) then Japs and Germans would stop being enemies and have time to focus on whoever they never liked in the first place. If not because of racism then simply for having a war because they NEED the war.
 
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civfanatic

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^^ That's an interesting point you make Nonyon. We have no reason to assume that Japan and Germany would remain allies forever.

I think that, if they split and had a "Cold War" scenario, India would join the Japanese side, simple because the Japanese were in Asia while Germany was far away in Europe. Also, S.C. Bose was more pro-Japanese than he was pro-German.
 

AOE

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First of all, there were many other countries that were friendly with the Triple Alliance (that is, Germany, Italy, and Japan). These include Hungary, Romania, Spain, Finland, Siam, Persia, Argentina, and many others. India would simply join this "pro-Axis Club" in my alternate scenario.
I am aware of that.

I also see no reason why the world's scientific progress or poverty alleviation would slow down, considering Germany and Japan were responsible for some of the world's greatest scientific achievments. The Germans were pioneers in the fields of rocketry and jet aircraft, just as an example.

Believe it or not, America is not responsible for all of the world's progress.
I am well aware of that also, but granted most of the Axis technological development during that period was warfare based. I meant overall technological advancement.

It is now.
That does need to be specified, although it doesn't guarantee relations will remain that way, as has been stated already.

As a general rule, it is impossible for a relatively small country (Japan) to conquer a very large country (India) that is united, despite the level of sophistication of the smaller nation. Unity is the key word here.
Agreed, if you are talking about a land based invasion. That does not mean Japan or Germany could not fund separatist governments in India if relations turned sour. That's precisely why I make the comparison between China at the time and India in this scenario; India was only united because of the British, and if you fought to kick them out of your subcontinent; that doesn't mean infighting will not occur or splits will emerge. Japan helped to create a split in China and then supported certain governments (while invading others), and would have a much larger base of military support to draw from if it won the second World War (all of China, all of South East Asia, sizable amounts of land in the eastern half of Russia, etc...). You also have to factor in that even decades after the war ended, India would still not be able to field a navy and air force to rival that of Japan or Germany because there would be no Soviet Union, and America would be isolationist. Japan could simply eliminate Indias air and naval capabilities with relative ease, and bombard their cities from the air and sea; perhaps even use nukes.

Also, you haven't explained why Japan would want to invade India in the first place. If you had a choice between invading the world's second most populous country or maintaining good relations with an already friendly government, which would you choose?
I would obviously agree with you here and say that a land based invasion would be exceedingly difficult, and would prefer to remain in good relations if I were in their position. Although if India wanted to improve its living conditions of its people, gain further economic development, or threatened any of Germany/Japans investments in the region; then the above situation I postulated is a likely one.

The Axis did not invade every country that they came across. They tried using diplomacy whenever possible, even with those countries that were their idealogical enemies. The Allies, however, did a much better job at diplomacy, which is a big reason why they won the war.
Also agreed here as well.
 
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Nonynon

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Ah it was late and i forget to mention one of the most important points:
India would probably (99%) turn fascist and that means terror, war, brainwashing, etc. You would be shot for using this forum. Most people would call that you lose.
 

debasree

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No, it would not have been able to maintain a democracy. That's interestingly the point. Netaji thought very much like Mao, he felt that India was too backward a country to sustain a democracy right away, and that it needed a single-party authoritarian regime, till a time when it can "afford" to have a multi-party democracy. He felt that authoritarianism was required to get rid of countless social ills, the caste system, and to homogenize the Indian society at large.

Also, many get carried away with Netaji's clout, because he was in good terms with the Japanese and Germans. There's no telling what would have happened in a Nazi-dominated world. For one, there would be no standard international language. Secondly, an authoritarian and industrialized Nazi Germany and Japan would have exploited developing countries even more than the Anglosphere does, today.



For one, Netaji's "single-party state" had Indian National Congress as the proposed "single-party". As far as Nehru-Gandhi dynasty goes, I agree. Nehru would have been pulp in the company of Netaji.
you first learn the total work & principle of netaji then discuss about him,the problem is like half illiterare persons loke u allways thought they know everything,boy our country will be different if netaji take charge about it and those corrupt english foot licking leaders like nehru would be nowhere.
 

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