WHAT IF: India and China had been friends (Not an Aman ki asha thread)

[Adioz]

WARNING: THIS IS NOT AN AMAN KI ASHA THREAD.

This is a thread discussing the possibilities of cooperation that we could have had, had there been no Indo-China border dispute.

Now, the only thing that I am thinking is this:-

Regarding ports and infrastructure in various countries around India, the less said the better....Hats off to Chinese in one case, their ability to loot nations in the name of Infrastructure and "soft" loans, infact these so called "soft" loans are way too heavy that a new term has been coined on Chinese loans i.e., "Chinese Debt Trap".

The fact that we need a massive infrastructure push, and that China is probably the best-positioned country in the world to do that is what made me start this thread. Right now, China has a BIG infrastructure creating machine and allied workforce that is hungry for work. So the Chinese are investing in risky ventures like the CPEC, Sri Lankan port projects, African infra projects, etc and giving out Lines of Credit to create infrastructure that, at least sometimes, makes little economic sense (since it might not translate into a return on investment for the Chinese). This would lead to the nation excepting the Chinese "aid" into what we are calling the "Chinese debt trap". What I do not see here is, how would that be any more beneficial for China (except in some circumstances)? Had India and China been friends, India would have had no beef with allowing Chinese infrastructure investment into India (in a much bigger way than today). This would have helped us when we are badly in the need for capital. As for the terms and conditions of the loans from China, we have enough economic heft and business acumen to turn them in our favour.

There would still be some problems seeing as we would have tried
There are still a lot of variables in history that I have not accounted for in my what-if scenario. For example:-

• Had there been no Indo-China enmity, we might not have thought of developing a Nuke.
• There would have been no US-Pakistan-China nexus opposing us in the 1971 war. Consequently, we would not have signed the friendship treaty with the Soviets. The US might have chosen us to be their link to China instead of Pakistan (this is contingent to the fact that India would have agreed to be the bridge between China and USA despite it being non-aligned)
• But then again, had India refused to be the bridge, USA would have approached Pakistan for the same, and we would have had to sign either the friendship treaty with the Soviets in the (which would have irked China back then) or we would have had to become that bridge in place of the Pakistanis, to ensure no intervention by the USA or China in the 1971 war(which would have put us squarely in the 1st world countries, i.e. America and its allies).

 

[Brood Father]

There cannot be a friendship between two entities wanting to aspire same position

 

[Adioz]

Then, there is the nuclear dimension. Had we been friends, would India have still done Smiling Buddha? Or would we still have initiated the Nuclear program?
The Pakistanis were not going to get one, as China would not help them. And since we had no problems with the Chinese, China's first test in 1964 would not have sent alarm bells ringing in New Delhi.
Would we still have considered a nuclear bomb back then?
And if not, would we have considered a nuclear bomb more recently, when our global profile started rising?


And finally, there is the question of the impact of the 1962 war. Had there been no 1962, would this nation have woken up from its slumber and addressed the gross lack of preparedness (on the material front) in the Armed Forces? And if not, would we have achieved a victory in 1965 (notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan attacked India since it saw we were weak due to the 1962 war, they would have attacked some-day)?

 

[Bornubus]

The dispute goes back to 1840s and most importantly all the communist entities have a tendency to add more and more territory and to annex areas which doesn't belong to them.

So if there was no AP/ LAC dispute, cunning Chinese would've find another excuse.

 

[Adioz]

There cannot be a friendship between two entities wanting to aspire same position

There seems to be ample friendship between India and USA. China is the common enemy. If there had been no China, US would be plotting against our rise. Point is, had we been friends, there would have been cooperation between India and China to bring an end to the Western hegemony. We would have binged on the facts of history that portray India and China as the two preeminent powers in the ancient world between whom only economic and intellectual exchange prevailed. There was no military exchange. Both co-existed, both had the same position. And both were friends despite both aspiring for the same.

 

[ezsasa]

Since we are debating a hypothetical scenario..

If China turns into a democracy in the future, there is a possibility that India china would be friends.

As long as they are commie, no chance.

 

[Adioz]

The dispute goes back to 1840s and most importantly all the communist entities have a tendency to add more and more territory and to annex areas which doesn't belong to them.

So if there was no AP/ LAC dispute, cunning Chinese would've find another excuse.

Agreed, though partially.

A communist state need not feel the need to enforce its views on the world. And globalization has established that trade is a far more profitable activity than expansionism and belligerence.
China may feel such a need or it may not. And in such a case, our friendship would be contingent to that fact.

Nevertheless, I modified the poll to add another option.

Since we are debating a hypothetical scenario..

If China turns into a democracy in the future, there is a possibility that India china would be friends.

As long as they are commie, no chance.

That is a definite possibility. And I sincerely hope I am alive to see the process and at least a little of the aftermath. But I think its going to be a slow transition as opposed to a violent revolutionary movement. This is also better for us and the world if the transition is peaceful and gradual.

 

[aditya10r]

Impossible to imagine even hypothetically................................................
COMMUNISM AND DEMOCRACY DONT GO HAND IN HAND.........................

 

[aditya10r]

@Adioz
What makes you feel that china,would someday,turn into a democracy?????????????

 

[Adioz]

Impossible to imagine even hypothetically................................................
COMMUNISM AND DEMOCRACY DONT GO HAND IN HAND.........................

And yet we have India-Vietnam bonhomie?
And what about the American overtures to China before 1971?
Agreed that Communism and Democracy do not go hand-in-hand, but we are past the phase in human history where Countries tried to enforce their beliefs upon one-another, in a self-righteous way. We have entered a global world, where each great power knows and understands (some like the USA might not, they are slow learners) that we are better off with each country deciding the best path for itself. Meddling in the affairs of other countries has only brought about suffering and war.

@Adioz
What makes you feel that china,would someday,turn into a democracy?????????????

People power. The people of China are increasingly becoming aware of the outside world. Their incomes are rising and they are reaching a level where, history has shown, democratization occurs invariably. I hope that China does not become an exception to this trend. There was a very interesting video on this that I saw, it was a good discussion. I'll try to find it and post it here.

 

[Villager]

The poll needs to fixed a bit as The question asked is, "what if India and China had been friends". The first few options read, there can't be friendship between India and China.

My opinion, I don't see many issue between India and China once the border issues are gone irrespective of China being a communist or secular state. We both seek progress, rationality, encourage scientific approach to people, seek our own independent policies with respect to other nations so there will be a lot to work on together. There is nothing really to fight over excuses like religion, race etc.

I would even support and suggest a union of India and China to settle the border issue.

 

[Flame Thrower]

@Adioz

I do not why, but I hate these kind of hypothetical discussions...

These are like what would I have become if my mom didn't gave birth to me....

Well that's said, China has disputes with every border country and the ones without border too...

Chinese aim for global domination, even if every country try to solve borders by giving what China claimed, I can say for sure that China will ask for more....


China will maintain peaceful relationship till it feels that it's opponent is way too strong for itself to attack...

So please never come up with these hypothetical discussions which deviate you from the current topic(this is my opinion only)

 

[raja696]

China is better friend to Usa , when compared to India.

Dont forget mao's dream of conquering India and that is the only plan China has got in its mind.

No Indian is fool to believe them. Chinese are just another bigger north korea with working slaves.

 

[ezsasa]

So far china with some luck on its side has followed the path of least resistance. Other than SCS there is not much resistance for them.

Even now after so much hype and hoopla about their military prowess they are yet to step out of their comfort zone from a military stand point.

China may review its stance against India only after some military failure, like for ex: there is a very slim chance that they can conquer beyond Vietnam.

There is no way Chinese will initiate a war with India under current circumstances, but they might use a smaller nation on its borders as a guinea pig.

 

[dhananjay1]

Two powerful states in close proximity rarely develop freindly relationship with each other. Their position is that of rivals. Even when there is close cultural relations between two states, the rivalry for dominance remain. Historically, chinese emperors have seen every other kingdom as a tributary kingdom to their empire and this trait still remain with nominally communist government. There could only be one dominant power in Asia, and India would have to decide where it wants to stand.

 

[no smoking]

Then, there is the nuclear dimension. Had we been friends, would India have still done Smiling Buddha? Or would we still have initiated the Nuclear program?

India's nuclear program started far before China, they just called it "peaceful program" just like the 74 nuclear test - a "peaceful nuclear explode". But everyone know it was a nuclear weapon program. So, with or without Chinese, the project would've been carried on.

The Pakistanis were not going to get one, as China would not help them. And since we had no problems with the Chinese, China's first test in 1964 would not have sent alarm bells ringing in New Delhi.

India would have the bomb sooner or later no matter what Chinese did.
Pakistan will do everything she could to get a bomb, from Chinese or American, or even Russian.

 

[no smoking]

What I do not see here is, how would that be any more beneficial for China (except in some circumstances)?

Financial benefit, new market, resources, lower transportation cost, on and on.
Basically, it is as same as any loan between developed countries and developing countries, the profit is always hidden outside the accounting book.

Had India and China been friends, India would have had no beef with allowing Chinese infrastructure investment into India (in a much bigger way than today). This would have helped us when we are badly in the need for capital.

It will be the same. India has been very very cautious to any FDI even today. It is not only against China but everyone.

 

[Tiger.Hind]

http://www.oocities.org/somasushma/tarim.html

What if they hadn't destroyed Hindus in Xinjiang AND Indonesia/Malaya||

Then, maybe but the core of Turkic power is with Han support, never forget||

"The Chinese provided systematic support to Melaka and its king made at least one trip to personally pay obeisance to the Ming emperor.Interestingly, the kingdom was also encouraged to convert to Islam to create a perma nent opposition to the Hindus of Java."

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/08/history-of-indian-ocean-shows-how-old.html

Mao was proud of Timur's invasion of India, What more to say?||

 

[IndianHawk]

Interesting thread.
Answer is quite obvious because India and China can't be friends as long as both of them on the rise.

Two giant rising nations will inevitably find themselves in conflict no matter how hard they strive for peace. They will naturally have to compete for resources for businesses and for influence.
Now don't compare that with USA India relationship because USA having less population and very rich GDP per capita have very different game plan than India or china even then USA India bonhomie mostly rests on common rivalry with china!!

Although if 1962 and AP / aksai issues are removed India and China would have found it much easier to cooperate from time to time against third forces such as Europe/ USA but that would have been an ad-hoc co-operation.

Actually India China doesn't need to be friends at all all they have to do is not nuke each other. Neither can completely defeat the other .

Even now they are cooperating on NDB /AIIB and in WTO on select issues. Enmity doesn't stop them!

Regarding Chinese investment in India Chinese money will come to India as long as India grows that can't be stopped by either indian or Chinese govt.

With Chinese growth slowing /readjusting Chinese wealthy will invest in India in search for faster returns .

If not directly than indirectly via third countries money will follow growth. It doesn't give a damn about nation or ideology.

India and China will become friends when one of them stops growing and starts receding . It might take a century to happen.

 

[IndianHawk]

It will be the same. India has been very very cautious to any FDI even today. It is not only against China but everyone.

That is partially true.

Even in sectors where fdi is very liberal Chinese investment lags behind other nations reason being mostly state ownership of Chinese companies sometimes with links to PLA .

Not only India this reason has made many nations uneasy about Chinese investment . For ex Britain .