I guess SKA's first 72 orders will still go through, regardless of issues. The follow on option will face problems because of their F-15 buy.
Saudis want 3B and refuse to buy non-multi role versions. They still want that assembly factory as well. 3B is looking pretty scarce right now and the UK doesn't want to layoff anymore assembly workers.
The IN has vocally supported Rafale. If the IN tender turns out to be political or favouring the cheaper aircraft with high levels of ToT, Rafale has already won. Sea Gripen and Sea Typhoon aren't capable contenders, especially the Typhoon because of costs. Super Hornet, IN won't touch em. They will probably be made to take part just to provide competition. Only F-35 may end up being in the way of a Rafale victory. Rafale for the Navy may end up being cheaper than the IAF version because of already secured large orders.
IN will go with the Rafale simply for commonality sake, same reason IAF bought it with similarities as M2000-9.
PHP:
I guess Kuwait is only being careful. But you never know what the Middle East ends up doing. Heck they may all end up buying the F-35. Other than Qatar and UAE there is also Oman.
I am not going to hold my breath for Oman. They will either go UK or American. 80% of Qatar's military equipment is French, including their entire AF so Rafale = no brainer. UAE demanded we buy their M2000s which we didn't want, but will buy now. There is plenty of French money flowing to Kuwaiti MPs so a big enough bribe will win that. They want what the region is getting, UAE sets the tone.
With all that mud slinging going on over Rafale's victory in the MRCA deal in the UK, there is no way in hell any UK govt will buy the Rafale now. RN will cry about it and still end up being a F-35 customer. Nobody, anywhere cried about EF's defeat in Japan. But they are quite angry over a French victory in India. Quite touchy, these EF guys. It would be the same with any country belonging to the EF consortium. Rafale is an untouchable now.
It all depends on F-35s final outcome, and time frame. They won't invest in Sea Typhoon so the only options are F18s and Rafales. They certainly prefer to get F-35s. But if the money and schedules aren't there, they won't get it. It would look pretty silly to have CVF floating around for years with no fighters. Talk about mudslinging... F18 wouldn't make it if they want France to fund fitting of the joint-carrier. The offset would be them buying Rafale.
Forget the Middle East, there are other countries that require aircraft. Korea is there, but they may be a bunch of F-35 buyers as well. Vietnam and Philippines are available as clients. Indonesia may buy Russian or go for the Japan 5th gen JV, but may have room for the Rafale. So, that's Asia.
Korea is little Yankee puppet state. They are occupied by it so...
Vietnam and Rafale... never happen. Philippines is too poor. Now, if that F-16 deal doesn't go through in Taiwan it should make Rafale a clean sale. The frigate scandal is resolved with Thales paying damages and they are happy with French Senate not blocking the lawsuit. M2000 already dogs China's hottest disputes. Now lets make it Rafale. Indonesia is diversifying suppliers so who knows, but I doubt it.
Libya with it's oil deposits may either buy the used Mirages or new Rafales, a good choice to have. I don't think there is any other African country interested in a new jet.
Rafale is too rich for Libya now. Emirates used M2000-9s will definitely go there. Africa is too poor for such fighters. The richest South Africa can't even afford to fly the cheapo Gripen.
Australia, Rafale will only take part in a losing battle, no point.
Australia is deferring F-35 orders, of course they would just buy more Super Boogers.
Argentina is a possible buyer if the political situation is favourable. A few other countries like Peru and Chile may help.
We won't sell to the Argies as high as tensions are with the Brits. That would throw our entire alliance to dust. Peru just signed an upgrade for MiG-29s so it would be awhile before they scrap them. They just signed an upgrade for the M2000s so that is another long time. Once they are depleted it would certainly be on the table. Chile is in the market for new fighters. Only way I see it happening is if F-16 line is shut down before time, they do like the Falcon.
Forget the Swiss. Every country follows procedure. Gripen beat all other aircraft in the deal and Rafale has a chance only if the deal is re-tendered. I think all other European countries may go for the F-35 save for Greece and Serbia. Greece's economy may improve over time and they may need a replacement aircraft for their F-16s and Mirage-2000s. Turkey is buying the F-35, so Greece will follow with new aircraft. There is Serbia with their squadron deal, but they will simply choose the second cheapest bird after the JF-17.
I can't forget the Suisse, Gripen deal is under investigation by the Senate and Dassault undercut their offer. That is totally in play. Greece will buy Rafale but it depends on how fast Turkey gets F-35s. It is looking pretty slow now. Serbia will but whatever is cheap, they are broke. They won't buy JF-17 because it isn't NATO compliant. Refurb aircraft most likely.
Most other countries like Venezuela and Poland are either in the Russian camp or the American camp. So, no point trying to pull them apart. The best bet is to get a proper contract done for the UAE deal. The Indian deal victory obviously helps reduce the cost big time. Pull in Brazil and Qatar after that and hope Kuwait joins in. I would say the Indian MRCA victory will help bag these countries easily as compared to before. 31st, Jan 2012 is definitely a very memorable day for Dassault and France.
Gawd, don't mention Venezuela and Poland in a discussion of Rafale sales potential . There are some parts of the world we simply have no sphere. India win gets rid of the biggest inhibitor to Rafale's export... no export.
