football prospects of Donbass
Against the backdrop of the football world championship that has begun in Russia in the Donbass, the situation is worsening. The parties exchange artillery strikes, the number of victims has increased significantly. Many, including the author, expected activation of offensive actions by the APU in the period of the championship. Of course, there was no question of the likelihood of a full-scale offensive of the APU, but local strikes aimed at occupying certain cities were quite probable. However, in connection with the latest events, the situation has changed dramatically.
On June 7, during a direct line, Vladimir Putin said that the attempts of the Ukrainian side to launch active hostilities will have extremely serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood. In parallel with this, the exercises of the South Ossetian Military District began, clearly aimed at demonstrating the Russian Federation's determined intentions. On the territory of the Rostov region, a group of land forces was enlarged. In addition, the reinforcement from the Caspian fleet of the Russian Navy was transferred to the Sea of Azov. Thus, by strengthening the three types of troops in the region, the Ukrainian side was made clear that it would run out of attempts to launch even a local offensive.
Directly on Donbass there is a serious activation of the artillery of the Republics. And, if at the end of May the blows were applied as a rule in the territory of the People's Democratic Republic, then in June similar events began in the LC.
The course of fighting in the Gorlovka direction has been described many times, there is no point in repeating it. It should be noted that even the Ukrainian side recognizes the fact of the defeat of its artillery in the counterbattery fight. Subsequently, the artillerymen of the Dniester Democratic Republic inflicted preemptive strikes on the most "hot" areas of the contact line. First of all, it touched the Mariupol direction and Avdeevka. The beginning of June was characterized by artillery strikes on the positions of the APU in LNR from Bakhmutki, Krymsky and Novotoshkovskiy. It is noteworthy that without fear of consequences for violation of the Minsk agreements, the military republics actively use heavy artillery and MLRS, which clearly have a go-ahead. The DRG of the Defenders of Donbass also became more active. Having lost 3 prisoners at the beginning of the exacerbation, the Republics quickly equalized the score by demonstrating 3 captured AFU soldiers. In fact, it is obvious that in the conditions of provocations of the APU, the military DNP and LNP were unleashed, giving the opportunity to preemptively strike on the APU without restrictions. Such changes have clearly reflected on the situation both in the Donbass and in its coverage in the Ukrainian media. "Over-the-top" reports of Ukrainian television were replaced by constant complaints about "damned separatists", with fire from the weapons of Minsk-banned firing on the position of the APU. Increasingly, the Ukrainian side accuses the military ЛНР and ДНР in the death of civilians, naturally not mentioning the location of the APU's positions in populated areas (and completely forgetting the artillery bombardment of the settlements of the republics). Even the famous propagandist of the ATO / OOS Yury Mysyagin changed the tone of his publications from propagating the idea of "revived MAT"
The very composition of the AFU grouping in the Donbass, which changed in late May or early June, indicates that the Ukrainian military has clearly abandoned its offensive plans. Thus, one of the most combat-capable brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces was deployed from the Donetsk area: 95 assault landing and 25 airborne. They were replaced by 81 airborne assault and 92 mechanized brigades, which have much less combat capability. Part of the units of the 57th motorized infantry brigade near Donetsk was replaced by colleagues from 56 motorized infantry (motorized infantry brigades of the Ukrainian armed forces are virtually incapable of offensive operations, armored vehicles and artillery are equipped with an order of magnitude worse than mechanized ones). In addition, yesterday it became known that 54 mechanized brigades were leaving the contact line for rotation, standing on the so-called Svetlodar arc. 72 of the mechanized brigade arrived from the Donbass Basin Program. Thus, despite the statements of a number of mass media about the escalation of the grouping of Ukrainian law enforcers, the usual rotation of the divisions on the front line actually takes place. Moreover, the newly arrived connections are significantly inferior to the replaced ones. Thus, even the local offensive of the Armed Forces in the Donbass is at the moment almost unbelievable. The latest fights showed the complete superiority of the artillery of the Republics over Ukrainian opponents. "God of War" is still a key player during the war in the Donbass, preventive strikes by artillerymen Defenders of the Donbass make serious adjustments to the plans of the command of the Armed Forces. Unmanned aircraft of the Dnieper and the People's Republic of Germany in a timely manner detect clusters of APU equipment,
The aggravation of the situation, which began with the occupation of the neutral zone by the APU units near the village of Chigari near Gorlovka, resulted in numerous casualties on both sides. According to the author, about 20 Defenders of Donbass perished on the contact line from the beginning of May. Perhaps these data are not complete. In addition, the Republic lost 2 armored vehicles (BMP-1 and MTLB). As for the losses of the Armed Forces, they are certainly not critical for the Ukrainian army, but still exceed the losses of the Republics. So, from open sources it is known about the death of 24 Ukrainian siloviki since May 8 this year. These data are highly likely to be considered underestimated. The number of wounded has exceeded a hundred in early June. It is noteworthy that in the course of the battles about the huge losses in the ranks of the fighters of the People's Republic of China and the LCN, the APU failed to provide a single photo or video with the enemy's bodies.
Of course, even such a ratio of losses is unacceptable for the People's Republic of China and the People's Republic of China, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have enormous superiority in mobilization resources, the loss of dozens, and even hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers can not change the situation in favor of the Republics. Disruption of the provocations of the Ukrainian army during the World Cup is not a victory in the war. The Republic simply does not have the resources for a military victory over the APU. Attempts by the Ukrainian army to destroy the NDP and the LNR through a massive offensive will lead to intervention by the Russian Federation, which will ensure another major defeat of the APU. A peaceful settlement of this conflict is doubtful, which means a long positional war.
Nevertheless, despite all the difficulties, we can assume that the plans of the Supreme Armed Forces for active offensive actions, even if local in nature during the World Cup 2018, are thwarted. Putin's tough statements supported by the votes of the Republic's artillery were clearly heard in Kiev. Yes, this success does not abolish the heap of problems in the end of the war in the Donbass, there is still a long confrontation associated with a large number of victims on both sides, but nevertheless this round was left for us.
