Chinese invasion of Taiwan
The Russian invasion of Ukraine was neither successful nor lost. This is a great lesson for China as it prepares to invade Taiwan. The Chinese calendar was for this fall's invasion, but the reaction of the U.S. to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and all these economic sanctions against Russia has somewhat discouraged China. Russia is a fortress nation that sits on a stack of oil reserves, critical supply of metals, food grains and other chemicals. Each of these are needed, hence a temporary disruption aside these supplies would continue. In case of China which is totally dependent on the consumer goods manufacture & exports and supply chain intermediary products, the impact will be dramatic and negative.
China, as strategic analysts in the West believe that their plan is to quickly overwhelm Taiwan's defenses before any help arrives. It is only 80 miles of sea their armed forces have to cross and to land. They believe they can take Taiwan in a few days. Good thinking from their point of view, but first the Taiwan is heavily equipped with quality military hardware and second, US help can arrive in a few days from Japan and Guam. In the fight that follows, as the Taiwanese stoutly defend their homeland, the US simply prevents resupply to the Chinese forces by blocking the sea. Therefore, the pressure on the invading force is doubled, i.e. no supplies and a strong defense. One can see the beginning of retreat of Chinese forces.
If Chinese forces intensify by attacking the American fleet, then the United States could attack air and military bases on the mainland. I believe that the Chinese are not fools to escalate to a level where the US instead of defensive becomes offensive.
It will be a repeat of the Falkland War scenario in which a medium-sized British naval fleet isolated Falkland from reinforcements and was victorious.
As punishment, the U.S. could impose economic sanctions against China. Mind it that these cannot be as severe as imposed on Russia, but any sanctions which deny them external markets and money will be detrimental to Chinese export interests. They will very quickly relent. Consequently, the invasion will not succeed.
The key point is that.…….. can the United States impose sanctions similar to those it imposed on Russia, on China? The answer is no, because the United States is overly reliant on Chinese exports. This dependence will also make the United States slow down. The fighting can end in a few days, but the impact of any sanctions on an exporting country such as China will be much worse. One lesson that will emerge from this harsh diplomacy will be that the United States will be forced to consider alternatives to their needs for consumer goods. Other nations with low wage & industrious labor will be delighted to receive the US foreign direct investment and supply them products comparable or better in quality than China.
The above scenario of invasion, regardless of how you look, is wrong for China. Smart Chinese leaders will put Taiwan's integration on the back burner. Hence, possibly no invasion.