When considering Chinese, we have to consider every theater of warfare, bro. Due to their secrecy, little is known about their tactics, strategy and maneuvers. Our satellites don't have GPS level network centrism, our forces don't have any idea of the troop formation on the other side of Himalayas.
Come on, even an amatuer like me with Google Earth and a military encyclopedia can get a good glimpse of Chinese infrastructure in Tibet. And a professional army like IA has no idea of PLA formations??
You must realize that PLAAF has already started activating bases there while 2 of the bases have been active all along; their location is such that they are sufficiently away from Arunachal in distance to prevent an IAF strike and enough to descend on us.
So they activated an airbase near us, big deal. Its their territory, they can do whatever they want. We also have airbases along Bangladesh border, like Kalaikunda AFS and Hashimara AB. Are we preparing for an invasion of Bangladesh?
Remember the last time we estimated something, something else happened.
If you're referring to 1962, that's a dead horse and there's no need to keep on beating it. We are discussing air power today as the primary factor of a future Sino-Indian conflict; in 1962 neither side even used their air force. The present day scenario is a completely different scenario from 1962, and direct comparisons between the two are often flawed.
Something which we Indians often forget about is that India is very low on China's list of military priorities. This is something that defence professionals and China watchers - including some on this forum - have repeatedly mentioned, though many of us continue to live in a paranoid state. Just a casual look of China's military layout will show that it is heavily focused towards Vietnam, North Korea, and South China Sea, with its presence near India almost nonexistent in comparison.
Note that I am
not advocating a lax position on the defence borders. I believe that any military should keep constant vigilance over its borders, and that is something that the Indian Army is doing day and night, 24/7. We can accuse the GoI of being lax towards the border issue, but the fact is that the GoI has been more vocal about the China threat now than at any other time in history.
However, being ready for a conflict does not mean a conflict is about to happen; in fact, it is usually the opposite, as a prepared army is a very potent deterrent.
Chinese have opened up dozens of all weather roads, their infrastructure is 20 times faster than ours (they manage to finish 20 roads in the time we manage to finish 5) and waves and waves of light armoured vehicles (unknown whether IFVs or light tanks). Not to mention towed Artillery and MBRLs. And we are yet to even start a tender for howitzers all over again. Does this give you a picture? They have it all ready and covered while we are even yet to buy them off the market.
First of all, and this is very important, Arunachal Pradesh is
our territory, which means that we automatically have the defenders advantage of knowledge of the terrain, ability to use local infrastructure as we see fit, etc. Our infrastructure may be worse than the Chinese, but this doesn't really matter when you consider the distances over which the Chinese forces will have to travel in order to reach the border. Indian forces will obviously have a far less distance to travel. Secondly, even if the PLA manages to make a dent in Arunachal Pradesh, can they exploit this breach? The answer is NO. The deeper the PLA goes, the greater the Indian advantage of fighting on home turf. The Indian depolyment in Arunachal is structured in such a way that small penetrations in a limited war are unlikely (due to the sheer number of Indian forces), while a powerful thrust into the Indian defence will allow Indian assets to be mobilized from the remainder of the country (a direct highway link to Itanagar will soon be complete) and turn the tide in a war of attrition.
One of the fundamentals of fighting a deep war is to destroy the enemy's communications, supply lines, and chain of command. For the PLA to accomplish this, this would mean a virtual conquest of the entire Northeast region. I have seen nothing so far to make me believe the PLA is capable of such a feat. Even if the PLA fights a limited war as in 1962, the sheer strength of the Indian border force will prevent this from succeeding, as mentioned earlier.
About the points on equipment that you brought up: I don't see why the PLA would use armored vehicles, even light ones. They had plenty of them in 1962, and didn't use them then. What makes you think they will use them now? The terrain of Arunachal would make them nothing but targets for the IAF and IA.
About artillery, the IA may not have as much equipment as they desire, but they have enough to fight a war. That is certain. The Indian Army has showed time and time again throughout our post-independence history that they can triumph even in situations where the foes possess superior armaments. To verify this, go no further than 1962, where our jawans armed with WWII rifles killed 700 PLA soldiers and wounded 1300 more, despite being drastically outnumbered and outgunned. The media makes it seem like we have absolutely no artillery positioned on the border...
Once M-777s are purchased, you can expect our border force to be even better supported.
THIS is the reason why IA cannot do jack and PLA gets to come into our side whenever they fancy; because they KNOW that we aren't armed well even today.
The PLA enters the border whenever they feel like it?? That's news to me. Is there any reliable source for that?
There hasn't been a single major skirmish on the Sino-Indian border since 1987. One wonders, if the Indian Army is so haplessly armed, why the Chinese don't press their advantage?
2 lakh troops without sufficient roads, armoured vehicles, towed artillery and firepower are nothing but 2,00,000 cannon fodder.
2 lakh troops with Flanker and Flogger air support, 130mm M-46 and 100mm IFG towed artillery, and close proximity to Indian lines of supply and communications are a considerable border force, and no one in their right mind would say other wise. To give you an idea, there are only about a dozen countries whose
entire armies are as potent as this border force.
Invasion is unlikely but Chinese believe in "WHAT YOU CANNOT TAKE IN MILES, TAKE IN INCHES" and that is something you cannot deny no matter how much praises we have to shower on our armed forces. They make sure that whatever areas are not patrolled sufficiently, they send their state-owned road making companies guarded by PLA to make roads and claim it as their territory. Bhutan's 5,000 sq, miles was lost to PLA just like that and that taking over made it impossible to go by Sikkim to Bhutan on foot directly. That small "kink" you see between below pointed by the red arrow, was once Bhutanese territory which has been slowly encroached upon:
What? I have an atlas from 1968, it still shows that piece of land as Chinese territory? Also, that piece of land is covered by a giant glacier, making it near impossible to "walk" to Bhutan from Sikkim anyway.
This has happened in a span of 30 years. in 2008 PLA entered Bhutan despite Indian Army's presence nearby.
Please provide a source for this.
The invasion of India has already begun and by inches, not by miles since the latter would slow down their economy and be a suicide mission. It is only our idiotic leaders who downplay Chinese threat. Media glamorizes it but there is some element of truth in it.
So while the PLA is taking "inches by inches" from India, the Indian Army is sleeping and doing nothing?
Let me just say this: the GoI, our babus, our diplomats, our self-proclaimed leaders... they can all be sleeping.
But the Indian Army never sleeps, and every night, the hundred crore citizens of India can go to sleep in peace because the Indian Army is awake.
Face it: They know we are under-armed, under-equipped, shaky leadership, slow-decision makers and worry about them.
Even knowing all of this, they have not invaded since 1962? Why haven't they?
The whole facade of Chinese claims and counterclaims on Indian territory are only meant as a distraction for India to divert our attention from far more pressing strategic questions... like deciding who becomes the dominant power in the Indian Ocean. When push comes to shove, the Chinese will back down from their claims, as will we. They know that and we know that as well. The status quo will be maintained for quite a long time, possibly indefinitely.
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