I am no crystal ball gazer and so I cannot say that it would happen even without 1971.
What were the indications that it would?
As per the books, they seem to feel that the Mujhs were the fallout of Zia's 1000 cuts where he honed his strategy and played up to the US.
The Afghan war would have happened irrespective of 1971..two completely unrelated events.
Indian would have gone ahead with the nuclear test, leading to
ghaas khaayenge..hazaar saal maraayenge rant from Bhutto and the AQ Khan saga..
India would have still pre-empted Paki perfidy and cartographic aggression on Siachen
The perceived successes of the US-backed jihad in Afghanistan would have still emboldened the Pakis to support terror in India. They were already supporting the Khalistanis and supporting Kashmiris would have been an obvious development.
If not 1971, Pakis would have found something else to initiate their war by thousand cuts. The entire premise of the country is based on hating India, Indians (Hindus for them) and
kaafir (in no particular order).
I agree that none of us are prophets to know with certainity what would have happened..but given what
HAS happened and our understanding of the Paki national character a few guesses can be made with some degree of confidence
Pakis have virtually ceded Gilgit-Baltistan to Chinese and would have done the same to Gwador if not for Chinese reluctance to be caught in the quagmire of Baloch insurgency and become another USSR in Afghanistan. I bet my months salary (a pittance actually but that's besides the point) that the Pakis would have done the same in their East Wing.
Invite the Chinese to setup PLA, PLAAF and PLAAN bases,
Invite them to station their nuclear tipped missiles there,
Invite their corporations to invest in gas, mining, forestry and agriculture..
Withdraw most of their forces to the West or the "real" Pakistan, content in the knowledge that India would be forced to spread their troops to counter the Chinese on at least two fronts in the North and the East, thereby, balancing the power equation on the Western front.
East Pakistan was treated as a colony and with nothing but contempt by the TFTA Pakis. However, we ould have been left sandwiched between nuclear tipped missiles from the West, the North and East, with nowhere to go but the ocean.