The Syrian Crisis

[nrupatunga]

If they aren't sending escorts, it will easily become fireworks when an Exocet slams into it.

Sir, let france first punish syrian regime for the crime it has committed, then maybe it can think about exocet-ing chinese ships.

 

[Himanshu Pandey]

there will be no war in syria until russia and china leave those shores.. as if this war happened with them there.. they will be bound to retaliate for saving their own position in world.. this is going to be a game of delay until these 2 get benefits from west to abandon syria

 

[Armand2REP]

Sir, let france first punish syrian regime for the crime it has committed, then maybe it can think about exocet-ing chinese ships.

It depends on what Chinese intend to do. If they try to be human shield for the enemy, we will blow past them.

there will be no war in syria until russia and china leave those shores.. as if this war happened with them there.. they will be bound to retaliate for saving their own position in world.. this is going to be a game of delay until these 2 get benefits from west to abandon syria

There will be war when Assad fails to give over his WMD for immediate destruction. Chinese ships will be ordered to clear the area or will become collateral damage. We will not tolerate delay, we will not tolerate interference. China has two options, stay out of the way or go to the bottom.

 

[nrupatunga]

Syria agrees to put chemical arms under international control

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia is now working with Syria to prepare a detailed plan of action, which will be presented shortly.

Lavrov said that Russia will then be ready to finalize the plan together with UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Will Syria crisis create a new world order that favours Russia?

Russia has faced up to the US on the Syrian question like never before. Russia never warned the US that it will "assist" a besieged nation, whether in the Middle East or anywhere else, like it has done in case of Syria. Perhaps, Russia has been wizened by its foreign policy reversals in Iraq and Libya – the two nations it considered as its allies, like Syria.

The only difference, and a big difference at that, is that Russia never flexed its diplomatic muscle when the Iraqi and the Libyan foreign policy disasters for Russia were unfolding. Perhaps, Russia decided to gather courage and put an end to the Americans swallowing up one after another Russian allies in the region. Perhaps, the present Russian saber rattling in the case of Syria was considered as "the last straw" by the Russian strategic establishment; but it already seems to be paying dividends.

The jigsaw puzzle of Syria has thrown open a new trend in international politics. If the West's looming military intervention in Syria is averted, it would be a victory for Russia's new-found US containment policy. In that event, it would also inevitably mean that Russia would be emboldened to challenge the US virtually at every drop of the hat whenever an international crisis erupts.

For the US, it would send a mixed bag of signals. While the US would be grudgingly ceding more diplomatic space to arch-rival Russia, it would also mean that President Barack Obama would be averse to act as a global policeman for the rest of his tenure which ends in January 2017. Perhaps the responsibility of being a Nobel Peace Prize winner is weighing down on him, and rightly so.

 

[amoy]

Like a Chinese saying goes, to kill the chicken (Assad Syria) to scare off the monkey (nuke going Iran or the "Axis of Resistance")

Iran, Assad, and Obama's Quagmire - The Daily Beast

Obama may genuinely consider Syria a limited operation aimed solely at deterring Assad, and other creeps, from gassing people in war. But he's promoting it in partnership with an organization, AIPAC, that is supporting the Syria strike only in order to maximize the threat of a strike against Iran—a strike that could provoke exactly the kind of lengthy, open-ended Middle Eastern war Obama pledges to avoid.

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...e-likely-if-action-on-Syria-is-not-taken.html

The failure to take military action against Syria will encourage Iran's hardline establishment to pursue nuclear weapons, raising the likelihood of an Israeli attack that could drag the United States into a war with Iran, former Middle East adviser to President Barack Obama Dennis Ross wrote Monday on The Washington Post.

 

[amoy]

Syrian opposition delegation begins China visit |Politics |chinadaily.com.cn

A six-member delegation of the opposition Syrian National Dialogue Forum started its visit to China on Tuesday at the invitation of the Chinese People's Institute of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei confirmed on Tuesday.

During their stay, senior officials of the Chinese Foreign Ministry will meet and exchange views with them, Hong told a daily news briefing.

"China has been engaged in mediation efforts with all parties involved in the Syrian issue in an active and balanced way, making unremitting endeavors to push for a political solution," Hong said.

Jinggangshan allegedly off the Syrian coast

 

[Bilal]

If china india russia will support assad ,iran,hezbollah against saudi arabia,pakistan,al qaeda its a set scenario of world war 3

 

[The Messiah]

If china india russia will support assad ,iran,hezbollah against saudi arabia,pakistan,al qaeda its a set scenario of world war 3

pakis will implode. because they will have to backstab china and also fight against iran if pakis want to go against India. If you side with the group India is siding then questions will be raised and saudis will unleash wahabhis on the army

 

[Himanshu Pandey]

It depends on what Chinese intend to do. If they try to be human shield for the enemy, we will blow past them.




There will be war when Assad fails to give over his WMD for immediate destruction. Chinese ships will be ordered to clear the area or will become collateral damage. We will not tolerate delay, we will not tolerate interference. China has two options, stay out of the way or go to the bottom.

brave words but I must say hallow ones... its just not about who is more technological advance in defence tech.. its also involved the trade... an attack on china .. may I suggest please look on the size of trade between US-china and EU-china.. and several other things.. I would love to see china at the bottom of sea but the truth is whole europe and USA can't even touch a single heir on a chinse head.

on giving up chemicals weapons.. it just doesn't work like that... once this option is open all parties involved will come on defence table minus rebels.. now this is a complicated issue and needs a lot of meeting and talks .. in which syrian govt will ask guarantee against israel and saudis when it will give over its chemical weapons.. now as they are not saying no.. you can't attack them.. and as they just want security from their known allies in leaving their biggest security option you can't call them greedy or people intentionally involved in delaying things.. so a war will be out of option and with every passing day and once assad knows USA and its allies are on talk table he will kill most of the rebels with the help of china and russia.

and the first thing assad will ask this chemical negotiation will be no more western support to rebels?

 

[Armand2REP]

brave words but I must say hallow ones... its just not about who is more technological advance in defence tech.. its also involved the trade... an attack on china .. may I suggest please look on the size of trade between US-china and EU-china.. and several other things.. I would love to see china at the bottom of sea but the truth is whole europe and USA can't even touch a single heir on a chinse head.

Trade? Look at the deficits of trade between US-EU and China. They have no leverage, we could send their economy into the stone age just by an embargo.

on giving up chemicals weapons.. it just doesn't work like that... once this option is open all parties involved will come on defence table minus rebels.. now this is a complicated issue and needs a lot of meeting and talks .. in which syrian govt will ask guarantee against israel and saudis when it will give over its chemical weapons.. now as they are not saying no.. you can't attack them.. and as they just want security from their known allies in leaving their biggest security option you can't call them greedy or people intentionally involved in delaying things.. so a war will be out of option and with every passing day and once assad knows USA and its allies are on talk table he will kill most of the rebels with the help of china and russia. and the first thing assad will ask this chemical negotiation will be no more western support to rebels?

Everyone knows it is a delay tactic, preparations are being made so when he fails to deliver strikes will commence immediately. What other nations have is irrelevant, they haven't used chemical weapons on their people. This action is to make sure others don't. As for Assad killing all the rebels, if he could do so it would be over by now. He is in a stalemate and France will turn the tide. The real question is what will be in a post-Assad regime. If fundamentalists take over we will have to go to war yet again, that is the real fear.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

Text of Obama's Speech on Syria

 

[sydsnyper]

Re: Clashes in Muzaffarnagar, UP

Coming soon to a neighbourhood near you.......

Jihadists Force Syria Christian to 'Convert at Gunpoint'

Jihadists Force Syria Christian to 'Convert at Gunpoint'

..."I saw people wearing Al-Nusra headbands who started shooting at crosses," said Nasrallah.

One of them "put a pistol to the head of my neighbor and forced him to convert to Islam by obliging him to repeat 'there is no God but God.'"

"Afterwards they joked, 'he's one of ours now.'".......


............But worse, for him, was what he said was the reaction of his Muslim neighbors when the town was seized by the rebels.

"Women came out on their balconies shouting with joy, and children... did the same. I discovered that our friendship was superficial."

But Nasrallah's sister, Antoinette, refused to condemn everyone.........


........The most tragic story was that of Rasha, who recounted how the jihadists had seized her fiance Atef, who belonged to the town's militia, and brutally murdered him.

"I rang his mobile phone and one of them answered," she said.

"Good morning, Rash rush," the voice said, using her nickname. "We are from the Free Syrian Army. Do you know your fiance was a member of the shabiha [pro-regime militia] who was carrying weapons, and we have slit his throat."

The man told her Atef had been given the option of converting to Islam, but had refused.

"Jesus didn't come to save him," he taunted..........

 

[Himanshu Pandey]

Trade? Look at the deficits of trade between US-EU and China. They have no leverage, we could send their economy into the stone age just by an embargo.

first thing you can't do that....the reasons are

1. most of manufacturing are shifted in china... now setting up a big factory take years and a lot of money.. you just can't stop taking products from china as there is nowhere else from where you can get them.. not even EU or USA. so a embargo can't be placed.

2. the trade deficit alone shows that how much USA and EU are dependent on china and nobody shoot his own legs until he have another set readily available.

3. the free economy will be your curse as those companies and factories own by europeans and americans are not going to shut their factory in china and start it in europe.. they will switch to china or some nutral place and from there they can countnuie trade.

4. till now you waredwith nations who were not directly afftecting your economies and mostly were in raw material. china is in finished goods and that makes a diffrence.

5. no nuclear power can do a war with other.,.. thats why cold war never got converted in russia-us war, or Indo-pakistan or Indo-china wars are gone down into priorty of these 2 nations.

Everyone knows it is a delay tactic, preparations are being made so when he fails to deliver strikes will commence immediately. What other nations have is irrelevant, they haven't used chemical weapons on their people. This action is to make sure others don't. As for Assad killing all the rebels, if he could do so it would be over by now. He is in a stalemate and France will turn the tide. The real question is what will be in a post-Assad regime. If fundamentalists take over we will have to go to war yet again, that is the real fear.

the thing carry asked will give syria excuse to call this off with all support and good image. he asked that syria disclose the location of its chemical weapons.... no only a fool can ask it fro any nation and then asking it from a nation which is in civil war is even beyond the capacity of fool too. it needs special category. nobody discloses the locations all they can do is hand over the weapons and after this happened they can let UN visit those locations but all in secrecy and only after weapons are removed and delivered not before.

USA is itching for an attack on syria and with china and russia in back ground its not possible they should have taken chem bet.. that would have a way out with some face-saving.

 

[Compersion]

Get feeling that the USA is not to keen to get involved. The benefit of doing little and nothing outweighs the benefit of doing something substantial. But there's a risk the potusa has walked a bit too fast on this. Was it misjudgement (not sure) - I say that after reading Hillary Clinton statement recently.

The American metrics involve protection of Israel profoundly more compared to taking the side of either Shia and Sunni. Some say its to do with Syrian oil but there would be a longer western buildup if that was the case.

This syria situation is between Shia And Sunni interests where the country is lead by a Shia and population and rebels are mostly Sunni. It's retribution somesay revenge for Bahrain uprising where the (sunni) gulf joint security force got involved for first time in history. The significance of that was huge. A uprising in in the sunni heartland kingdoms (unbelievable someday).

The Americans have bigger role to play and the use of chemical weapons has got them involved as it weakens their conventional weapon supremacy and to some (little) extent their righteous domestic and foreign policy beliefs. Also the Sunni kingdoms have greater access to american processes (ought to say americans have greater access to sunni processes). Also the position of Syria is nearby Israel.

To some extent syria crisis is also being flamed by america (for its own purpose) to weaken Syria against Israel. Further its being intrepreted that Russia is making americans look like school boys (and after snowden affair). The British read the situation properly and took their hands off for the bigger handshake.

The danger is Americans are being seen to be overtly pro Sunni which I am not sure they want to be positioned and is far from truth (it will make Iran go nuclear faster). Going at the Assad regime will disturb a lot of balance especially making Sunni more dominant. Further the Bahrain situation was managed with different standards. Why differently for Syria.

The Russians have suggested Syria to give up chemical weapons. It's to make the situation a stalemate. And frankly the Russians know what they are doing. They know the Sunnis are pragmatic and also the Shias can be spoken to. It provides a escape clause to America and they know it.

The Americans aren't fools and are smart to realise what's really going on. They will make the decision best suited to their interests. And we need to evaluate what Israel wants. They want to weaken Syria militarily.

The danger is a Kosovo war type arrangement in the long run with its footprint setup now. Spilt the country along the rebel lines. As that's the only difference between Baharain and Syria (demographics). What would the Shias get in return is the question (as Iran will go nuclear if not managed properly).

But Israel might say forget it why waste planning and resources the situation is delicate and Syria is in a mess and its being shown to be Sunni and Shia conflict. Also there is risk of iran going nuclear in response to protect itself. But the Americans will say the image of Americans in Israel is taking a hit of doing nothing to protect Israel.

That's why a missile teat was launced. Tell the world whose side America is really on.

And that's why what Hillary Clinton said is significant. She is far more connected to Israel interests and they must have approved her postion.

India supports America and Russia each with its stands that are not mutually exclusive and to get United Nations involved (which does not seem likely).

The difficulty comes when Iran and Saudi Arabia ask what india wants and who it supports. The tilt by India towards Saudi arabi is there but Iran is still close. Non alignment ha!

The impact on this we will know the answer how America acts. To be frank it's best to get United Nations involved (not much hope). The Americans are powerful and the proportionate response they are advocating (even smaller measure) will have far wider consequences.

Its also possible that Syria might also come down to a understanding between Sunni and Shia that enough is enough we did a eye for a eye now lets relax.

That's why after Hillarys statement my belief is nothing big will happen.

 

[nrupatunga]

@Compersion what had hillary said??

WRT sunni-shia or arab-iranian fight is fight for supremacy of islam. There might be a temporary ceasefire but outright ceasefire, no way possible.

Syria even in its prime was way behind israel. So no need to further weaken syria for sake of israel, infact weakening syria may throw up radicals who may go for israel once domestic questions are resolved. More than syrians, it will be israelis who would be watching who comes to power in syria.

In this part of world, loss of face is a big thing, If gcc can't ensure a regime change, they will be ridiculed on arab street. Iran will make fun of them. This is a BIG no for gcc. After saying so many things and spending so much money if they can't dislodge assad, then their own "legitimacy" in a way is gone. Hence they themselves may be challenged in their own countries.

Even usa et al, after syaing they will punish syria for crimes against humanity now backtracks saying regime has given up chemical weapons, it may be all logically fine in west. But on arab street, message which will be put across is iran/assad managed to outwit usa. Whether that's the reality or not. but that is the message that will be put out.

 

[Compersion]

@Compersion what had hillary said??

WRT sunni-shia or arab-iranian fight is fight for supremacy of islam. There might be a temporary ceasefire but outright ceasefire, no way possible.

Syria even in its prime was way behind israel. So no need to further weaken syria for sake of israel, infact weakening syria may throw up radicals who may go for israel once domestic questions are resolved. More than syrians, it will be israelis who would be watching who comes to power in syria.

In this part of world, loss of face is a big thing, If gcc can't ensure a regime change, they will be ridiculed on arab street. Iran will make fun of them. This is a BIG no for gcc. After saying so many things and spending so much money if they can't dislodge assad, then their own "legitimacy" in a way is gone. Hence they themselves may be challenged in their own countries.

Even usa et al, after syaing they will punish syria for crimes against humanity now backtracks saying regime has given up chemical weapons, it may be all logically fine in west. But on arab street, message which will be put across is iran/assad managed to outwit usa. Whether that's the reality or not. but that is the message that will be put out.

Hillary Clinton: Syria Giving Up Chemical Weapons Would Be 'Important step'

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/3895198?ir=Politics

Yep face is important calculation agree with you.

 

[Bilal]

let me tell you sunni and shia are two opposite side of the picture,i feel a sunni will hate a shia more than anyother enemy,likewise for shia.
iran and saudi arabia are fighting the oldest battle of mankind started in qudsia,it is arab vs persian.

 

[Bilal]

Also ideologically speaking a sunni has much in common with the jews and christians,whereas a shia has much in common with chinese and russians hence iran has china russia on its side and saudi has israel and usa.

 

[t_co]

let me tell you sunni and shia are two opposite side of the picture,i feel a sunni will hate a shia more than anyother enemy,likewise for shia.
iran and saudi arabia are fighting the oldest battle of mankind started in qudsia,it is arab vs persian.

It's the Thirty Years' War all over again.

The Thirty Years' War (1618–1648) was a series of wars principally fought in Central Europe, involving most of the countries of Europe.[10] It was one of the longest and most destructive conflicts in European history, and one of the longest continuous wars in modern history.
The origins of the conflict and goals of the participants were complex and no single cause can accurately be described as the main reason for the fighting. Initially, it was fought largely as a religious war between Protestants and Catholics in the Holy Roman Empire, although disputes over internal politics and the balance of power within the Empire played a significant part. Gradually, it developed into a more general conflict involving most of the great powers of the time.[11] In this general phase the war became less specifically religious and more a continuation of the Bourbon–Habsburg rivalry for European political pre-eminence, leading in turn to further warfare between France and the Habsburg powers.[12]

Shia = Protestant
Sunni = Catholic
Saudi Arabia = Spain
Iran = Sweden
Turkey = France
Iraq/Syria = poor, poor Germany

USA/Israel = Austria
Russia = Ottoman Empire

 

[amoy]

Also ideologically speaking a sunni has much in common with the jews and christians,whereas a shia has much in common with chinese and russians hence iran has china russia on its side and saudi has israel and usa.

It's mind boggling if merely seeing the whole mess through the prism of Shia-vs-Sunni "ideological" divide. First of all what's "ideology" in your book.?

Pakistan of Sunni majority is China's ally. And most Chinese are basically immune to that "Islam" thing.

Saddam Hussein (Baath), once the US's friend but hanged in the end, was a regime of Sunni minority ruling over Shia majority.

Now Syrian rebels (mostly of Sunni extremists) are killing Christians while the ruling Alawites (Baath) has been quite secular.

So, your Sunni-vs.-Shia theory doesnt explain everything though it may be true Saudis hate Shia more than Jews.