Sukhoi PAK FA

[p2prada]

Then p2p what will be our contribution in designing -- Nil
I thought this venture was a great opportunity for HAL/ADA to get some experience in designing of a next gen fighter
This will just turn out to be Indian's integrating customized equipment's sourced from around on a Russian designed platform

It will be significantly lesser now. There is no way to know what aspects of the R&D will be carried out in India.

For me, I thought this venture is a great opportunity for India to waste the $35 billion down the drain in the name of some experience in designing of a next gen fighter.

The money is being spent for IAF's benefit, not for HAL's.

If some how IAF can not live without another junk.
Then buy as buyer-seller deal.

Why? The Russians cannot complete development on their own. Regardless, it is not junk, it can be the best or even second best air superiority design out there.

BTW, Why we are paying $35 billion for the product which is already developed by them?
No need to waste so much money in the name of development cost for T-50 which is already done by the Russians.

Russians have not spent as much as you think. They cannot finish the development on their own either.

In future they will sell it in market, buy it when it is available. Much cheaper way to get it.

Not a good way to get ToT.

 

[Zebra]

The money is being spent for IAF's benefit, not for HAL's.
Why?

Thanks for that, you made my job much easy. :thumb:

That is why I am telling that, it is a waste, $35 billion gone down the drain.

The money is being spent for IAF's benefit, not for HAL's.

IAF can get that as a buyer also what they wants. No need to spend $35 billion for that.

Russians have not spent as much as you think. They cannot finish the development on their own either.

lol, Tell me more about the inside story, please.

Then who had spent?

Not a good way to get ToT.

Again and again ToT.

BTW, what we gonna do with these much ToT?

May be Indian forces will say in battle, 'look we had so much ToT in our hand, so you can't fight with us now'.

We got ToT for BrahMos, Bofors......and so on, did we made something new and good of it, as of today?

For further development of BrahMos still we needs Russians and can't work by our own yet.

The Russians cannot complete development on their own. Regardless, it is not junk, it can be the best or even second best air superiority design out there.

So that is why Indians are here as a co-financer only and all the news about joint development are BS and crap?

It is a Russian aircraft so I call it as a junk. It suits them.

Yes, you may correct about the design but till now it is not proved for the aircraft.

 

[p2prada]

Thanks for that, you made my job much easy. :thumb:

That is why I am telling that, it is a waste, $35 billion gone down the drain.

The money is being spent for IAF's benefit, not for HAL's.

IAF can get that as a buyer also what they wants. No need to spend $35 billion for that.

The $35Billion is a media generated figure. The R&D budget is estimated at $11Billion with India providing $5.5Billion. At $100Million per aircraft, the cost for 300 PAKFAs is $30Billion. Add $5.5 Billion to it and we get the media generated figure. That's how it came.

Earlier the plan was to buy 214 PAKFAs(166+48), so the cost for procurement is $21.4Billion. Now it would seem the plans changed again. So, a new estimate can be given by this year end. It will keep changing until the aircraft is actually ready in 2015-19.

IAF can get that in a buyer seller relationship. However with the current setup India can even export PAKFA to third countries. PAKFA can make India an exporter of fifth gen technologies along with having a say in the future roadmap of the PAKFA, for upgrades and also a naval PAKFA. Why go for any lesser?

With Rafale we don't have a say in the French plans for MLUs. They will build whatever they want and we will have to buy it when the time comes with slight modifications.

Just like how people claim LCA is OUR OWN aircraft, we can say PAKFA is OUR OWN aircraft too. However we cannot say Rafale is our own aircraft. Meaning once we buy the Rafale, we cannot make any modifications to it, only Dassault can. I think now you have an understanding of how it is between buyer-seller(Rafale) and our own development(PAKFA).

lol, Tell me more about the inside story, please.

Then who had spent?

There was information released that to date Russia had spent $2 Billion on the aircraft. Some of it is in the form of loans that need to be paid back. This probably includes Saturn's new engine and NIIP's new radar. I am not so sure about the details though.

They can't proceed without someone else being able to spend 50% of the cash required. At first they tried China and then came to India.

Again and again ToT.

BTW, what we gonna do with these much ToT?

May be Indian forces will say in battle, 'look we had so much ToT in our hand, so you can't fight with us now'.

ToT allows the Air Force to perform maintenance on the aircraft followed by calibration of the radar and other components whenever needed. Without ToT, the radar and other parts will have to be sent back to Russia in order to make changes.

The Mig-21s crashed so much because India did not pay extra for ToT at the time it was purchased. We only purchased license manufacture, or rather license assembly. Even in the 90s, before dissolution of the SU, they offered to transfer the production line to India. But we couldn't pay for it. The Russians shut down production lines and cheap parts from the broken CIS states helped increase the crash rate.

Both Mirage-2000 and Mig-29 did not come with ToT either. So, their maintenance is a headache for IAF. However Jaguars came with ToT and it helped a lot to the point where we can use them until 2030 while performing all types of upgrades in house instead of relying on France or Britain.

ToT in no way helps us make a different aircraft on our own, but it keeps the aircraft functioning for decades with little or no hassles.

We got ToT for BrahMos, Bofors......and so on, did we made something new and good of it, as of today?

For further development of BrahMos still we needs Russians and can't work by our own yet.

You can blame DRDO for that. Not IAF.

Anyway Brahmos II is a new development. ToT for Brahmos I technology is of little use there.

So that is why Indians are here as a co-financer only and all the news about joint development are BS and crap?

Not a lot, but there are still a lot of things that can be done in India. Our electronics, including radar will be different. So, while the Russians have finished developing the airframe, FBW and engine along with the flight control laws, we can work on the internal avionics suite like radars, EW, communications, networking, computers, software etc. So, building, integrating and testing some of these equipment will be done in India at Ojhar. Look at the difference in dates. While the Russians will get their version by 2015, we will get our only by 2019. Those extra four years are all meant for our own R&D work.

It is a Russian aircraft so I call it as a junk. It suits them.

Out of all the countries in the world, the US is most fearful of Russia, nobody else. You can call Russian aircraft junk, but it is like calling American aircraft junk too. They are one and the same in terms of technologies and capabilities. Right from satellites to aircraft to tanks. The Russians have them all.

Yes, you may correct about the design but till now it is not proved for the aircraft.

No new design is proven until it has seen combat or been in service for at least 10 years. The MKI was termed as a proven design by the ACM only a year ago.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

Fifth gen fighter aircraft to be unveiled in India by 2014 - The Economic Times

Fifth gen fighter aircraft to be unveiled in India by 2014

 

[Austin]

There was information released that to date Russia had spent $2 Billion on the aircraft. Some of it is in the form of loans that need to be paid back. This probably includes Saturn's new engine and NIIP's new radar. I am not so sure about the details though.

The total amount spent by Russian government on PAK-FA program is around $10-11 billion , they way it works out there is some money is spent by MOD , some by Sukhoi own pocket as its cash rich and engine development is funded by Ministry of Heavy industry.

The government either pays them directly or lets a state bank lend money at some interest % and then the government pays back the bank.

The program is quite well funded and Ivanov the russian deputy PM mentioned that they will continue with PAK-FA development irespective of how FGFA takes shape.

It is very difficult to put a tag on R&D cost as PAK-FA is seperately funded which itself derives from previous Sukhoi program like the Berkut ,Su-35 and Mig MFI .....put it simply PAK-FA stands on the shoulders of these program in one way or the other and many billions were spend by Soviet in funding these program.

Ofcourse India was proposed to join the program as early as 2000 when Sukhoi and Mig were competing for MOD prespective PAK-FA program and the final winning design from Sukhoi was selected in late 2004 , India took almost a decade to make up its mind to join it perhaps reluctant to join that early because it involves some risk , we formally joined the program some months since the first prototype flew , so we are unable to infulence the design since it was frozen by 2005.

Having said that we are joining the PAK-FA program for our own benefit as the other program which is F-35 is facing cost and time over runs and US wont be willing to transfer any technology they wont do that even for Israel which had to beg to add its EW suite , now you can imagine they would have made us lick their feet if IAF demanded changes.

The nearly 30 % Indian contribution to PAK-FA will come in terms of IAF customising the Radars , Sensors , EW and getitng the source code to make it independent from Russian when customising it , plus what ever we develop its our IP and we dont have to pay to the russians thus reducing cost in long run.

In the end Fifth Generation Fighter is just dominated by just two players the US and Russians and they wont part with their crown jewel and once you are in dominant position you are in a position to bargain since the customer has not much choice in market.

I am sure Indians did not get what they would have hoped for with PAK-FA as far as TOT or Contributions to program goes but we would have got more then what we could ever think of if we join the US JSF program and in the end we get a much better aircraft then the JSF which is what matters to IAF to maintain a dominant position in this region.

 

[p2prada]

Personally, I don't care how good the PAKFA is against the F-22 or the F-35. What I am really concerned with is how good PAKFA and Super MKI are against PLAAF's new fighters. For all I care, the F-22 can be superior to the PAKFA or vice versa. As long as there are advantages over the J-20 or any other J-xx PLAAF can muster, IAF will be happy.

About previous programs, yes, PAKFA is standing above Berkut, Su-35 and Mig-MFI. The prototype engine for PAKFA would be related to the Mig MFI program while Berkut's internal bays would have helped. There would obviously be similarities between Bars, Irbis E and Irbis AESA. However I don't think bringing PAKFA from design to early prototype would have costed $11Billion. I would agree if you include Berkut/MFI/Su-35 to the mix.

As for costs of other programs, the Chinese we will never know. The F-22 costs $70Billion R&D. F-22 costs will increase with the pending MLUs and this will be in the same time as the F-35 is developed. The F-35 is supposed to be a $40Billion program, but now, fat chance. You can say the F-35 is headed in 3 directions -
1) What Carlo Kopp said...
2) What LM promised...
3) may exceed what either said.

I am trying to get info on the Naval MRCA tender for 80 aircraft. Currently it is difficult to get info on it. I think that's because even the Navy is not so sure on what's happening. I am quite sure the proposal is stuck in MoD. IMHO, the F-35 is a great addition to the Navy if N-PAKFA is going to be delayed. Of course, as long as the unit price is less than the Raptor's and performs as satisfactorily as claimed.

As it stands today, only F-35 and PAKFA have been offered for export. AMCA is too far ahead in time, so is the KF-X and a 5th gen Gripen II. So, it is a very limited 5th gen option for buyers. And will be expensive nonetheless.

 

[p2prada]

The program is quite well funded and Ivanov the russian deputy PM mentioned that they will continue with PAK-FA development irespective of how FGFA takes shape.

I wanted to add one more point on this quote. The current plans for PAKFA in the VVS is 60. The most recent publicly available plans for IAF were 166 PAKFAs. So, the Deputy PM was guaranteed sales of 226 examples of PAKFA's. Hence the claim that the PAKFA development will continue. It does not specify what the Russians will do if India backs out.

Considering their small initial (or even final) purchase of 60 examples, there is no way they can go it alone. Even the Su-35 is an expensive proposition had it not been for HAL/IAF's participation in the MKI program. All of Sukhoi's current successes in the export market can be credited to the MKI program.

Even if PAKFA's R&D is completed, even considering they managed to spend $11Billion throughout the program from today, their procurement costs would amount to only $6Billion for 60 units. Now compare that to the potential sale of 214 PAKFAs to IAF and we will notice the numbers fix themselves. An R&D budget of $11Billion and a joint procurement budget of $6Billion+$21.4Billion = $27.4 Billion. Now it begins making sense for the entire program and the addition of the IN and the VMF Rossii only equate to larger profits. Only VVS and VMF Rossii and no India equates to major losses, worse than the F-22 program. At the same time, only India and no Russia would still equate to a profit. Yes, yes, eventually over a decade Russia may bring that number to 250, but a program cannot survive based on promises of buying more. Look at LM's desperation to get more export customers to show a lower cost figure for the program. So, you see without India, there is no PAKFA. Money matters.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

With some of the Manufacturing being done at HAL after 2019 do you think the average price
will come down? Or will it be kits like the MKI's? Only thing that bothers me is Gorshokov games
will be played by Russians?

 

[p2prada]

There is nothing official about it but IMHO I am pretty sure everything will be manufactured here including raw materials. For MKI, the raw materials come from Russia, we finish construction and assemble. For spares, we make our own raw materials for MKI.

There is an unreasonable amount of negativity against the Russians on the Gorky. Sh!t happened and the Russians are giving us a really good ship without having made a profit at all. They have charged enough to break even. It is still the cheapest carrier ever built. For IN it wasn't about the money, it was the delay that inspired negativity. Among the civilians money is the cause for negativity. That and also blaming Russia for Mig-21 crashes when they have nothing to do with it.

 

[p2prada]

I think a lot of people have doubts about when we are actually going to be a Fifth gen Air Force.

According to the last known plan, the first PAKFA squadron was supposed to be operational in 2015 in Russia and 2017 in India. By 2017 the FGFA would have been ready for production and would have seen first squadron induction in 2020.

Things have deviated from the original plan. Now we know that our version of the PAKFA will see first squadron induction only in 2022 due to the 2 year delay. However the first squadron induction of original PAKFA design may very well happen in 2017 as planned earlier. Of course, this needs to be confirmed. But that did not stop us from inducting 10 Su-30Ks back in 2001 before induction of MKIs in 2002.

If things go as was planned before, in 2017 we will have our first operational PAKFA squadron.

Well, as of today all we can do is wait for the first flight of the 4th prototype, T-50-4.

 

[Austin]

I wanted to add one more point on this quote. The current plans for PAKFA in the VVS is 60. The most recent publicly available plans for IAF were 166 PAKFAs. So, the Deputy PM was guaranteed sales of 226 examples of PAKFA's. Hence the claim that the PAKFA development will continue. It does not specify what the Russians will do if India backs out.

The planned sale of 60 PAK-FA is for defence procurement or State Armament Program 2011-2020 , they will buy 60 PAK-FA till 2020 among the many that are slated for funding.

The total planned procurement of PAK-FA for VVS is around 400-450 aircraft that will span across next decade , this is similar to IAF planned procurement of 214 PAK-FA/FGFA.

Eventually there are huge number of fighter that PAK-FA will replace in VVS in long run including the Flanker and Mig-31 series , so they have huge internal market for it and ofcourse they would export it as well and there are traditional buyers of Russian Arms , typically all those who operate Flankers today are potential buyers of PAK-FA/FGFA

Considering the 5th Gen fighter is a two horse game its really something both US and Russia can afford to dominate and dictate , the difference is the former can be more brutal and the latter less but any one in their position would have done the same , its a simple business rule if you have monopoly you play by my rules.

Like I said before we didnt bet on PAK-FA because we want to subsidise the program or some old love for Russian but because pragmatic IAF wants a fifth gen fighter by next decade the MCA program is floundering and that leaves JSF or PAK-FA.

Obviously the kind of nose rubbing that UK a tier 1 partner for JSF had to do with US to get concession and how a very close allay Israel was treated just to add its own EW suite made the writing on the wall clear to IAF that PAK-FA was a logical choice to pursue if they want a fifth gen fighter and the bolt from blue J-20 program would have hastened MOD decision ,no matter how J-20 plays in the future.

In the end its a win win deal for both IAF and Sukhoi , IAF gets a customised 5th gen fighter with agreeable TOT and Sukhoi gets money and sales figures.....like they say it does not matter how the money comes as long as it comes.

 

[p2prada]

The planned sale of 60 PAK-FA is for defence procurement or State Armament Program 2011-2020 , they will buy 60 PAK-FA till 2020 among the many that are slated for funding.

The total planned procurement of PAK-FA for VVS is around 400-450 aircraft that will span across next decade , this is similar to IAF planned procurement of 214 PAK-FA/FGFA.

Are you sure about this? I mean is this an official requirement or just a guesstimate by some people based on the numbers that need replacement? Because if that is the case then even I gave a figure of ~350 Rafales for India(200 IAF + 80 IN + 40 SFC = 320 + follow on orders for IN).

If the VVS plans for 400+ PAKFAs are real then there will still be some catch to it, like how the French govt would accept further orders of Rafale from ALA only if it was exported.

Eventually there are huge number of fighter that PAK-FA will replace in VVS in long run including the Flanker and Mig-31 series , so they have huge internal market for it and ofcourse they would export it as well and there are traditional buyers of Russian Arms , typically all those who operate Flankers today are potential buyers of PAK-FA/FGFA

The export market for Russia isn't that great. I mean to say they don't have clients who want 4 or 5 squadrons like Turkey, Israel or Japan with 100+ potential orders for F-35s. India and Russia will be the largest operators by far. But they did mention a sales potential for 500 aircraft.

and the bolt from blue J-20 program would have hastened MOD decision ,no matter how J-20 plays in the future.

I still laugh at the claim by our Air chief who said the J-20s will be countered by the Super 30s.

 

[Austin]

Are you sure about this? I mean is this an official requirement or just a guesstimate by some people based on the numbers that need replacement? Because if that is the case then even I gave a figure of ~350 Rafales for India(200 IAF + 80 IN + 40 SFC = 320 + follow on orders for IN).

The strict official requirement for VVS which is funded by SAP 2020 is 60 aircraft.

The total projected requirement of PAK-FA for VVS is 400-450 aircraft link

The projected requirenment is similar to IAF project requirenment for 214 aircraft which is projected but not actually funded

Considering VVS has huge number of aircraft to replace between 2021 and 2030 and beyond and considering how flanker has itself evolved into specialised fighter PAK-FA future is double assured in VVS as they are not even funding a light fighter to replace the Mig-29 types.

If the VVS plans for 400+ PAKFAs are real then there will still be some catch to it, like how the French govt would accept further orders of Rafale from ALA only if it was exported.

What has VVS requirenment for fleet replacement has any thing to do with French government and Rafale.

The 400 + PAK-FA is for internal consumption and export market for PAK-FA is another ball game.

Rafale competitor for export market is Su-35S , these two will compete for future export orders the closer competition i can think off is Brazil program.

The export market for Russia isn't that great. I mean to say they don't have clients who want 4 or 5 squadrons like Turkey, Israel or Japan with 100+ potential orders for F-35s. India and Russia will be the largest operators by far. But they did mention a sales potential for 500 aircraft.

The problem is not many of Russias export customers can afford a $100 million plus fighter some like India can may be few others , most will be satisfied either buying Su-35S or Mig-35/29M2.

The offical export figure projected by Pogosan for PAK-FA is around 600 aircraft Pogosyan says market for 600 PAK-FA fighters

I still laugh at the claim by our Air chief who said the J-20s will be countered by the Super 30s.

Nothing to laugh about ,you dont need another 5th gen fighter to deal with 5th gen types , 80 % of fighter in major airforces in the world in next 2 decades will be 4th gen types.

With a radar upgrades of the types AESA which is planned for Super 30MKI , Netcentric capability and Long Range Weapons ( RVV-BD or Meteor ) , the planned upgrade would be quite uniquely capable to take on a 5th gen fighter be it J-20 or PAK-FA.

We should invest more in metric band radar like Nebo-M to take out LO targets at long range , integrate it with LR-SAM ,AAD thats the best bet againt most types of LO targets barring the B-2 types.

I see PLAAF heavily investing in Metric Radar besides having a very capable S-300PMU2 SAM , something the IAF is not doing

 

[john70]

"The first prototype of the FGFA is scheduled to arrive in India by 2014 after which it will undergo extensive trials at the Ojhar air base (Maharashtra)...we are hopeful that the aircraft would be ready for induction by 2022," IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne told PTI.



Fifth gen fighter aircraft to be unveiled in India by 2014 - Brahmand.com

The initial version of a fighter plane, being jointly developed by India and Russia and tipped to be one of the most-advanced in the world, will be unveiled in India in 2014.

The Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) with stealth features is slated to be inducted in the Indian Air Force by 2022.

The two sides are close to signing a key contract expected to be worth over $11 billion for research and development phase of the project in the near future.

"The first prototype of the FGFA is scheduled to arrive in India by 2014 after which it will undergo extensive trials at the Ojhar air base (Maharashtra)...we are hopeful that the aircraft would be ready for induction by 2022," IAF Chief Air Chief Marshal N A K Browne told PTI.

The IAF Chief was in Russia in the second week of August where he reviewed the progress made in the programme and the prototypes of the aircraft developed by the Sukhoi Design Bureau at Zhukovsky there.

The second prototype will arrive in India in 2017 and the third prototype will arrive in 2019.

Based on the experience of test-flights of the each prototype, the final version of the FGFA would be developed for operational service, Browne said.

India plans to acquire 214 of these fighter planes by the end of 2030 at an estimated cost of over $30 billion.

 

[Austin]

I can bet the prototype coming in 2014 would be one of the 13 or 14 prototype of PAK-FA being developed for flight testing ,this would like be similar to Russian spec and would go through MMRCA type comprehensive trials at all places and feedback going to SDB for fine tuning it to work in Indian environment.

The one coming in 2017 and 2019 would be the indian speced FGFA though not major changes are expected but it would be what the IAF wants to see in that.

 

[p2prada]

The strict official requirement for VVS which is funded by SAP 2020 is 60 aircraft.

The total projected requirement of PAK-FA for VVS is 400-450 aircraft link

The projected requirenment is similar to IAF project requirenment for 214 aircraft which is projected but not actually funded

Considering VVS has huge number of aircraft to replace between 2021 and 2030 and beyond and considering how flanker has itself evolved into specialised fighter PAK-FA future is double assured in VVS as they are not even funding a light fighter to replace the Mig-29 types.

Interesting. I never knew about this aspect that the Russians considered a 10 year plan on procurement. I don't think others do that. Good to know.

What has VVS requirenment for fleet replacement has any thing to do with French government and Rafale.

Costs. I think you remember the recent article which said Dassault will not be given further orders from ALA if there are no export orders. This was just before Rafale was selected. link

I was just relating it to Dassault's situation because I assumed the orders are for 60 only and not more.

The 400 + PAK-FA is for internal consumption and export market for PAK-FA is another ball game.

Btw, this projected number for 450 is not official. It is from CAWAT.
The Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT) is a non-governmental, independent research, information and publishing enterprise established in Moscow, Russia, in February 2010. The Centre is presently staffed with Russia's best professional analysts and science workers possessing ample practical skills and research experience in such areas as arms exports and arms market analysis.

So, as I said this is just a projection by analysts and not by VVS or Pogyoson/Fomin level individuals. Comparatively the 214 requirement is from nothing less than the Indian Air Chief. Meaning the 214 is almost guaranteed as long as an abnormal situation does not arise. The 450 requirement is merely based on how many fighters need replacement. Russia may not order even half that over time.

They are not required to replace on an individual basis. If we say a PAKFA is 4 times better than a Mig-29, they they don't need the same number inducted. Even half the number would do.

The analysis from CAWAT is pretty much equivalent to what you or I can project or even groups like RAND or Airpower Australia.

Funnily enough, there is a mention of China buying 100 PAKFA and is a very old article.

Rafale competitor for export market is Su-35S , these two will compete for future export orders the closer competition i can think off is Brazil program.

Su-35 is out of the Brazilian bid. The current competition is between Rafale, Gripen NG and Super Hornet. It is official. Su-35 is not participating in the Korean bid as well, because the Russians said something to the tune of F-35 already being pre-selected like the Japanese tender.

Su-35 may possibly see first foreign induction in Vietnam. Indonesia is not buying anymore Sukhois as the Flankers they have is enough for them. They are more interested in South Korea's KF-X program.

The offical export figure projected by Pogosan for PAK-FA is around 600 aircraft Pogosyan says market for 600 PAK-FA fighters

Yes. Initial reports suggested 500 for Russia/India and 500 for export. This changed to 600. The target build is 1000 at least. But that does not come back to actual figures ordered like in the F-35 program.

Nothing to laugh about ,you dont need another 5th gen fighter to deal with 5th gen types , 80 % of fighter in major airforces in the world in next 2 decades will be 4th gen types.

I beg to differ, the difference between a F-22 class aircraft and a 4th gen of any type(including EF/Rafale) is simply too big. We keep hearing about how MKI and F-15 win or lose engagements in different scenarios, but even a F-35 class aircraft is expected to be 8 times superior to the F-15C. Hence a 8 times superiority against MKI as well.

I had recently read about an exercise between Typhoons and F-22s. The EF pilot was happily talking about how good they were against the F-22 in dog fights. When a question about BVR was asked, the pilot said they don't stand a chance.

Currently F-22 and F-35 are God level aircraft. The F-22 is said to be 15 times better than the F-15C while the MKI is said to be 0.2 times superior to the F-15 block 52. It is not something you want to be up against. You don't want an upgraded MKI against them either. I don't believe most of that fart from Airpower either. Anybody with knowledge of stealth will tell you what the Air Chief said was for domestic consumption.

Of course, a combination of 4th and 5th gen aircraft is acceptable both financially and capability wise. An upgraded MKI would potentially be of the same or slightly higher level as a Su-35 and the PAKFA is touted to be significantly superior to the Su-35. So, you can't push a Su-35 against PAKFA either.

With a radar upgrades of the types AESA which is planned for Super 30MKI , Netcentric capability and Long Range Weapons ( RVV-BD or Meteor ) , the planned upgrade would be quite uniquely capable to take on a 5th gen fighter be it J-20 or PAK-FA.

That is a misconception. F-22 is designed to evade radars using the creeping wave effect, at least one of it's characteristics. It does not matter if it is PESA, AESA, or MS, the wave behaviour is the same. Laws of physics don't change based on the antenna type. A different antenna only allows a more selective use of the radar waves in order to not give away your own position.

All we can do is rely on flaws on F-22/PAKFA/J-20s design in order to maximize detection range on the target. There is a certain limit beyond which F-22s radar evasion would not work, that kind of technology on radars does not exist today.

What I am saying is the F-22s signature is below the clutter rejection threshold. Meaning, your radar, be it a PESA, AESA or MS, even old radars from 60s and 70s can see the Raptor, but your software will reject the signature terming it as clutter.

Now you can say an IR detector can see the Raptor. But using IR is not guaranteed every time due to weather conditions and clouds. So, expecting the MKI to use OLS successfully against a low IR signature F-22/J-20 is suspect. Possible in theory but not proven.

We should invest more in metric band radar like Nebo-M to take out LO targets at long range , integrate it with LR-SAM ,AAD thats the best bet againt most types of LO targets barring the B-2 types.

Another major misconception. Long waves are effective only if the antenna size is large enough, like AEWs. Otherwise the beamwidth generated is larger than in fighter radars using X band. AEWs have the added disadvantage of being slow and large targets.

While SAMs are good enough for engagement because of all the extra power radars can generate, SAM systems are basically point defence systems and the detection ranges of an aircraft compared to a SAM is superior. A set of two datalinked aircraft, one flying high and the other flying low can engage any SAM system in the world, including the latest PAC versions, S-400/500 etc.

So, you can take out a LO target from long range only if the pilot is dumb enough to allow you to do so. SAM systems are most effective when the enemy pilots are already engaging your own aircraft. But allowing an MKI from your side against a J-20 from their side is suicide.

I see PLAAF heavily investing in Metric Radar besides having a very capable S-300PMU2 SAM , something the IAF is not doing

IAF/IA is not allowed to purchase S-300 type systems due to our own project. We mostly have old generation long wave radar systems other than the Phalcons and the upcoming DRDO-CABS AEW&Cs. The next best options are the sea based MF-STAR on ships. The only other major land based metric radars are the Swordfish radars(for PAD system) for from the BMD program along with the Thales-LRDE JV called MFCR(used as AAD's eyes, maybe related in capability to Thales Ground Master 400). Pretty soon we will see them in service. China is ahead of us in many fields, but we have a minimum tech deterrence against them in certain quarters. We aren't there yet, but we are getting there.

Btw, the next swordfish development is aimed at supposedly tracking a 0.1m[SUP]2[/SUP] target from 1000Km away.

 

[p2prada]

Hmm, we don't have plans for a VHF band antenna. But I don't think it is really necessary right now.

EDIT:

I can bet the prototype coming in 2014 would be one of the 13 or 14 prototype of PAK-FA being developed for flight testing ,this would like be similar to Russian spec and would go through MMRCA type comprehensive trials at all places and feedback going to SDB for fine tuning it to work in Indian environment.

The one coming in 2017 and 2019 would be the indian speced FGFA though not major changes are expected but it would be what the IAF wants to see in that.

Maybe. But there is a chance while there will be similarities with the T-50, our version may have certain differences which will make it a new aircraft. Like the Su-27 to the Su-30.

 

[trackwhack]

p2p, Should we even discuss the F22 anymore? The plane is dead. The assembly line was dismantled in 2011. Of the 180 odd in service nearly half the fleet is grounded to check for the the issues around raptor cough etc. I do not see the F 22 playing any active part in an American war doctrine as the numbers are too few for the scale that they work.

With the F 35's timeline and issues, we could well see the Super Hornet continue to be USN's backbone well into 2020's.

 

[p2prada]

p2p, Should we even discuss the F22 anymore? The plane is dead. The assembly line was dismantled in 2011. Of the 180 odd in service nearly half the fleet is grounded to check for the the issues around raptor cough etc. I do not see the F 22 playing any active part in an American war doctrine as the numbers are too few for the scale that they work.

With the F 35's timeline and issues, we could well see the Super Hornet continue to be USN's backbone well into 2020's.

The F-22 still numbers more than our current MKI squadrons. 187 is a large number but "woefully tiny" according to an American General.

It is still relevant because of the capabilities.

SHs will be used until 2035.

The Raptor cough was due to the flight suit and not the aircraft. It was too tight during certain maneuvers and prevented the pilots from breathing.

Edit: 350 F-16s are being upgraded with AESAs due to the F-35 delay.

 

[Austin]

Interesting. I never knew about this aspect that the Russians considered a 10 year plan on procurement. I don't think others do that. Good to know.

Thats the GPV 2020 , Russia plans to spend 20 Trillion Roubles as part of arms procurement by 2020 , Air Force will get the third largest share , you can read it here

Costs. I think you remember the recent article which said Dassault will not be given further orders from ALA if there are no export orders. This was just before Rafale was selected.

From Dassult pov once they mentioned that even with no export orders they would make break even on the program based on orders from French Airforce/Navy with perhaps some small marginal profit.

Ofcourse the Indian Order will make their order book strong and financial status better , although I dont expect any deep TOT on Rafale from them except for source code to radar and stuff that would give IAF operational independence but the Rafale deal will bring good offset to indian industry i think about 50 %

Btw, this projected number for 450 is not official. It is from CAWAT.
The Centre for Analysis of World Arms Trade (CAWAT) is a non-governmental, independent research, information and publishing enterprise established in Moscow, Russia, in February 2010. The Centre is presently staffed with Russia's best professional analysts and science workers possessing ample practical skills and research experience in such areas as arms exports and arms market analysis.

So, as I said this is just a projection by analysts and not by VVS or Pogyoson/Fomin level individuals. Comparatively the 214 requirement is from nothing less than the Indian Air Chief. Meaning the 214 is almost guaranteed as long as an abnormal situation does not arise. The 450 requirement is merely based on how many fighters need replacement. Russia may not order even half that over time.

Agreed this is not an official number and you wont get official projected number for PAK-FA spread over 2 decades.

It makes less sense to plan beyond a decade and project some number might sound good but a lot can change in 2 decades that might seem those projection look wrong.

A perfect example of Pentagon needing 1200 F-22 in cold war after cold war it was 800 then it came down to 600 and finally 182 odd.

From practical point of view VVS will get 60 PAK-FA this decade which is funded and once they plan for next decade they will put some numbers to it.

I think PAK-FA production line will run for 3 decades and we would see Air Superiority , Carrier Based and Dedicated Tactical Bomber types from this design like they did with flanker.

For IAF they always have a choice of opting for American or European or French fighter but for VVS its a matter of life and death as a lot of investement and future is invested in PAK-FA there is no second choice.

They are not required to replace on an individual basis. If we say a PAKFA is 4 times better than a Mig-29, they they don't need the same number inducted. Even half the number would do.

Well you can still have 4 fighter at two different bases but you cant have 1 PAK-FA are two differnt location so number matters.

I beg to differ, the difference between a F-22 class aircraft and a 4th gen of any type(including EF/Rafale) is simply too big. We keep hearing about how MKI and F-15 win or lose engagements in different scenarios, but even a F-35 class aircraft is expected to be 8 times superior to the F-15C. Hence a 8 times superiority against MKI as well.

Well I have read of insane engagement numbers of 200:1 for F-22 versus F-15.

Strictly speaking those dont make much sense in a complex battle field environment aided by AWACS,Ground Based Radar operating in multi band and in Many Very Many engagement scenario.

So take those 200 versus 1 and 0.0001 RCS of F-22 with a bucket full of salt , it makes perfect sense for LM to propagate such stuff in paid magazine and other media.

We know from Congressional Report that F-22 needs 30 hours of maintenance for every 1 hour it flies and its A2G capability is quite limited with smaller payload capability ( can carry just 2x1000 lb bomb in its internal bay ) and now they also have some issue with Oxygen which makes its flying restricted , I think they havent found the cause it that problem yet.

If War was to be won only on PR and Propoganda then American would have won all the war right in the drawing room of enemy without firing a bullet.

Currently F-22 and F-35 are God level aircraft. The F-22 is said to be 15 times better than the F-15C while the MKI is said to be 0.2 times superior to the F-15 block 52. It is not something you want to be up against.

Well if its God Level then its better God Flies it why do we silly humans even dare to fly those aircraft

Well after Cope India there was this gentle man from USAF in some veteran discussion was boasting of F-15 , only to be told by IAF later that MKI won all the engagement was it 22:1 or something in favour of MKI.

Of course, a combination of 4th and 5th gen aircraft is acceptable both financially and capability wise. An upgraded MKI would potentially be of the same or slightly higher level as a Su-35 and the PAKFA is touted to be significantly superior to the Su-35. So, you can't push a Su-35 against PAKFA either.

Su-35 would be kinemetically superior to all Flanker series built so far as its improved Aerodynamics and new 14 T engine affords that , but MKI can get to Su-35 level in sensors and weapons ,PAK-FA would certainly better Su-35 how much remains to be seen.

All we can do is rely on flaws on F-22/PAKFA/J-20s design in order to maximize detection range on the target. There is a certain limit beyond which F-22s radar evasion would not work, that kind of technology on radars does not exist today.

What I am saying is the F-22s signature is below the clutter rejection threshold. Meaning, your radar, be it a PESA, AESA or MS, even old radars from 60s and 70s can see the Raptor, but your software will reject the signature terming it as clutter.

Neither F-22 or PAK-FA or F-35 can evade a Metric Band Radar only B-2 can because the size is larger than the wavelength of the radar

I was taking of this radar Мощь воздушно-космической обороны возрастает! - Алмаз-Антей

It integrates X, L and Metric Band and is first AESA Metric Radar ....good to deal with Stealth Targets at long range and accurate enough to put a missile close to target.

Btw, the next swordfish development is aimed at supposedly tracking a 0.1m[SUP]2[/SUP] target from 1000Km away.

Yes I am aware and its quite good considering Swordfish is a L band radar.