Russia Future Air Space Capabilities Part 1

blackjack

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Targetting satellites, aircraft, stealth aircrafts, hypersonic missiles, air to ground missiles, drones, cruise missiles with the right amount of equipment allows you to deal with adversaries and their future capabilities. There will be a ton of equipment here to discuss which I will have to make alot of parts to thoroughly cover what is deemed important.

S-400

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1st released in 2007 to replace S-300 systems these air defenses have gone through modifications of receiving new radars and missiles to enhance their performance against targets. A regular S-400 batallion consists of 8 launchers and 32 missiles meaning if there are 57 battallions according to September 2019 sources which there could be more batallions ordered since than, than it is possible to shoot down 14,592 aircrafts, cruise missiles, drones or ballistic missiles. Radars offer protection against jamming while tracking atleast 100 aerial targets, offers passive tracking monitoring frequencies aerial targets used with the combination of active radar tracking to help classify targets. There is is the option of using tall mast radars, using aircrafts, using mountains or the developement of photonic radar balloons photon10.png | Servimg.com - Free image hosting service that can extend the S-400 radar tracking lower altitude targets at a farther range. The command post than can make decissions for short range air defenses to target low altitude targets. The S-400 had 2007 92N6E Radars, 2015 Nebo-M radars have been used to replace them and then according to reference 15 there will be a radar to replace the Nebo-M with far superior tracking at greater range.. Modifications of the missile have also occured, 1st we had 9M96, 9M96M and 9M96M2 with a range of 150kms. 48N6DM has a 250km range and the 40N6 has a 400km range but only for aircrafts at low altitudes.

S-300

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There are about 2,000 S-300 launchers in which there are different variations of the system as these air defenses have gone through modifications and upgrades besides the S-400. Depending on the launchers with missiles that means it is possible to shoot down 4,000-8000 aerial targets. The VM version can deal with targets flying at 4.5km/s speeds while the older models deal with targets at max speed of 2.8km/s. Based on the Armenian/Azerbaijian and Ukraine conflict it is believed that they are vulnerable to drones but those versions are not really the best on what they used according to the S-300 family tree and it seems they were the earliest S-300 models.

S-350

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The S-350 is more suited as a medium range air defense system to deal with cruise missiles and drones with less inexpensive missiles while supporting S-300 and S-400 systems to deal with more strategic targets like aircrafts. As of now from 2021 to 2027 12 S-350 divisions would be received and each division consists of 12 launchers and each launcher can hold 12 missiles meaning that 1,728 aerial targets can be delt with. The system also consists of radars with a range of 250kms and reported to track several dozen targets simultaniously. The system has the option of using 12 150km(120km for export) missiles or according to the maks 2021 screenshot on the 3rd reference 32 9m100 missiles each having a 15km range. In otherwords if they want the Vityaz to be a short range defense system they can deal with 4,608 aerial targets than 1,728 aerial targets but these missiles are still being tested.

S-500

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Intended to replace the S-400 system as the next generation air defense and is said to set a world record of intercepting a target 481.2kms away, At best the S-400 can deal with IRBMs but system states it can deal with ten 7km/s targets being tracked, engaged and intercepted simultaniously with its own radar systems. Yenisei radar information is classified. The first S-500 regiment went on combat duty in Moscow on 13 October 2021. It has a 600km radar range and a 500km aerial target engagement range, along with a 200km max altitude range. Although unverified by the 4th reference can track a 0.1m2 RCS target from 1300kms away. No available info on the missiles but 5th reference suggests targets can be engaged 600kms away. A source states 10 systems were ordered but another contract was signed last August systems does not specify if it means radars, launchers, EW systems, passive radars, etc in other words orders are classified or hard to figure out right now about the air defense system.

S-550

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While the S-500 is to deal with hypersonic cruise missiles, vehicles, ICBMs, aircrafts, etc the S-550 is just designed to destroy satellites with missiles at higher altitudes while the S-500 at best can hit a LEO satellite only. Based on the 6th reference source it states that it can hit targets 10s of 1000s of kilometers from orbit meaning this system can destroy LEO, MEO and GEO satellites.

A-235

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This is to be the future successor of the A-135 system to intercept ICBMs and other hypersonic targets and instead of using silos the missiles can be used from tracked vehicles to intercept hypersonic targets and it will use a huge network of brand new ground radars being built all over Russia. It offers 3 different echelons of defense based on long, medium and short range missiles it will use in case one fails the other ranged missiles will deal with the target. The short range PRS-1M uses a detachable controlled fragmentation warhead, flies at a speed of 4km/s, overloads of 300Gs for high manueverability, range of 150kms and height of 50kms. Medium range the 58R6 has a 1000km range with altitudes of 120kms and the long range 51T6 would have a nuclear warhead with a 1,500km range and 800km altitude. Now these systems will use the Voronezh Ground radars that work in the VHF, UHF, EHF and the Voronezh-SM being developed as of now works in the centimeter range. Various sources state the radars have a 10,000km range, can track a soccer ball at a 8000km altitude, track 500 targets simultaneously so it depends on what you look at. And there are more sophisticated ground radars being developed like ground radars which will cover the terahertz frequency range which I will cover on the next parts for Russia's Future Air Space Capabilities and the Yakhroma radar is a ground radar that works in 4 different Bands which can track UAVs, ballistic and cruise missiles, stealth aircrafts from several thousand kilometers away, However its assumed to be a photonic radar for 1. working in 4 different bands. 2. working in the millimeter range which is included from those 4 bands to the meter range. Again more will be covered once I get the time to create a 2nd part.

Pantsir/Tor/Buk Air Defense Systems
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And the last topics to cover since the long range and medium range air defense systems have been covered are their modern short range air defense systems which cover long range air defense systems. 440 9К37 and 9К317 according to 2016 but states 70% of 9K37 have been replaced with 9K217(Buk-M2s) so guess estimate is 308-350 Buk-M2s because there were some Buk-M2s that were delivered in the 440 amount and 7 Buk-M3 brigades ordered in 2020 a brigade consists of 8-24 units according to a Tunguska unit example so I will just shoot in the middle at 16 and say there are 112 Buk-M3 units which can be more or less since sources are still unclear. According to the 11th reference a Buk-M2 and Buk-M1 consists of six loader launcher vehicles carrying four 9M38 missiles so 24 times 440 of Buk-M2s or Buk-M1s we would get 10,560 missiles that can deal with 10,560 aerial targets the Buk-M3 has 6 launcher vehicles meaning 36 times 112 we would get 4,032 missiles that can deal with 4,032 aerial targets so the total Buk inventory can deal with 14,592 targets. Buk-M1s to Buk-M2s are listed to have a 50%-95% interception change depending what targets they are dealing with while the Buk-M3 claims a 99.99% change of intercepting targets. Max ranges on the M1 and M2 go for 35km-50kms while the M3 goes for a 70km range. M1s and M2s can deal with max mach 4 targets while the M3 can deal with 3km/s speed targets with mach 4.6 missiles claiming it can intercept targets like ATACMs.

I am going to give an estimate on the pantsirs but I am assuming based on lack of sources and many different sources saying different things I might be under scoring the amount Pantsirs they actually have. 110 units of S1s and S2s in November 2017 ordered, 24 additional systems in 4th quarter of 2017, 6 more in early 2018, 3 battalions in 2021 sadly I dont know estimate of a pantsir battallion but I do know a battery consists of 6 pantsir vehicles so I will just put 18 pantsir vehicles ordered according to the 11th reference. Since each S1 and S2 consists of 12 launchers meaning 1,856 missiles can deal with 1856 aerial targets which I am sure it has to be way more since I am sure there were more pantsirs ordered before November 2017, Pantsir-S1s has a 70-90% interception chance while the Pantsir-S2s are possibly better because of newer radars. Now the next Pantsir systems will be rather interesting to discuss here. Pantsir-SM is said to be based on either a 12 launcher or 24 launcher scheme while there are alot of photos online that Russia is working on Quad pack missiles which will be very cheap to combat drones and raising the option of one Pantsir system having either 48-96 missiles each. The radar range of the Pantsir-SM is about twice the original Pantsir system which we go from 40kms to 75kms and the engagement missile range is increased from 20kms to 40kms and the speed is at mach 5-6 depending on different sources. It is said that existing Pantsir systems can be modified to the the Pantsir-SM standards. Rostec announced that the Pantsir-SM1 instead of using anti-aircraft cannons will use electromagnetic cannons that can jam but also physically destroy drones. Than there are further reports about a Pantsir-SM-SV which is on a tracked chassis and features two new missiles and sensors.

I might be underscoring the amount of Tor systems as well 116 Tor-M1 and Tor-m2s from 2012-2017, 6 battallions which consist of 12 Tor-M2 vehicles so 72 and since than, more Tor-M2DT systems were ordered but no amount listed for production. It states that the Tor-M1 can hold 8 missiles while the Tor-M2 and further vehicles were modified to hold 16 missiles, So 58 Tor-M1s and 130 Tor-M2s for my reasonable guess estimate which numbers should be more than 2,544 missiles dealing with 2,544 aerial targets. Based on the 14th reference new missiles are in developement to be cheaper and smaller that will give the Tor-M2DTs the option to use 32 missiles for each vehicle.

Combat Reality of an Air Force to Engage the Air Defense Systems Above.
No one understands how tiresome it gets running into your average everyday fan boy that goes and compares previous campaigns and conflicts to something that is nowhere near close to run a comparison to that it got me aggravated to lay down the capabilities of well known systems above and what they will provide for the future. It turns out that majority of people like to compare the Kosovo War and Desert Storm as a comparison that a modern airforce can magically destroy modern air defense because of those previous wars which couldnt be further from the truth. Iraq and Serbia consisted of S-75s and S-125s but not a single S-200 air defense system which is considered a long range air defense system and still these short range air defense systems have brought down 4th generation aircrafts and even a stealth one at that. Also the U.S. banned Russia from selling the Kolchuga radar to Iraq which was a passive radar used to classify and track targets bassed on their RF emissions. We have no Idea if there would have been more aircrafts shot down if any if a bunch of S-200 systems were deployed to Iraq or Serbia but we do know that there was footage of a Israeli F-16 getting hit, and that Russians have claimed that the Israeli F-16 took cover behind a ilyushin aircraft because S-200 missiles have no friend or foe identification. F-16I's have EW equipment and S-200s are more jammable and still between the conflict of Israel and Syria they prove to still be highly dangerous. This caused Russia to get 24 S-300 launchers or 3 S-300 systems which are either the PMU or PM versions stating Syrians will be trained to use them and this got the Israeli Defense Minister pissed off enough to threaten to launch all their surface to surface missiles and a huge aircraft campaign in Syria to destroy these systems but still this highlighed how much of a threat a few S-300 systems were and even Israel asked Greece way before these events transpired to use their S-300 system(old version of course) for some air campaign scenario operations.

Based on the S-200 in the Syrian conflict alone we see how dangerious they are and they have not evne been used to deter any NATO SEAD campagns that were done in Iraq and Kosovo. Now we take this a step further and S-300 systems have more EW resistance than S-200 systems, active radar homing as an option for S-300 missiles which S-200 missiles never introduced radars on their SAMs to track aerial targets at a certain distance. S-200 systems only relied on S-200 mobile radars on the ground for interception meaning that S-300s with the active homing sensors on their missiles were more accurate. As far as I know S-200s did not have any passive radars as well to work with their active radars like the S-300. S-300s have friend or foe identification along with enhanced performance than the S-200 in range and detection, S-400 than S-500 with their modifications became better than the last system. There were a alot of bayraktar drones destroyed with a few pantsirs in which some were repaired or not used in operation as far as the Ukraine war goes they had bayraktars and now Turkey no longer wants to supply them the drones and even they talk shit about the NATO drones they are supplied with. In the 2018 christmas attack in Syria Israel launched Delilah missiles in which they stated in the 1st wave only a few targets were hit while Russia reported that 14 of those 16 missiles were intercepted by Pantsir which shows how effective these systems are while Israel claims glide bombs from F-35s from a 2nd wave did the job which there were no reports of that from Russia but we do know based on Israel and Russias reports of how the Pantsir-S1 did against Delilah missiles. At this point Israel is making Russian air defense systems look good in the global market. Russia is still working with new short range missiles on the S-350, Pantsir and Tor systems to become more cheaper and more convenient to use against drones. Using one NASAM missile that costs 1.2 million dollars against a 20,000 to 30,000 dollar drone is not really smart.

Another thing to take notes on is Russian air defense systems are all integrated to work with each other meaning short range air defenses from a command post can deal with targets they can use from an S-300 radar or an S-400 system can use S-500 radars for some certain targets or even the S-500 can use ground radar tracking. Even if somehow aircrafts avoid or launch missiles at a far enough range based on satellite data(assuming Peresvet, S-500, S-550 or A-235 played with it) it can also be jammed or lead away from SAM sites and also air bases can be targetted by Russian missiles and remember it took over 1000s of flights just to deal with the Serbs which wont be the same given leasure to be done to Russia. OTH radars can monitor aerial targets from farther away such as an aircraft lanching a missile which shows one target to more targets and with range can classify what was launched, Passive radars can classify targets based on emissions, lasers and EM cannons under developement, RF emitters to fool ARMs, etc, all of this will be further discussed on my 2nd part which talk about other countermeasures along with ground EW systems but as of now I will take a break before continuing to those other parts when I feel like it.

Edit: If Ukraine ends up demilitarized completely Russians will still have a strong military presence there despite many ukrainians that have died in the war. This means they also can build ground radars around Ukraine which can further screw up F-35 deals if they care about ground radars, passive radars, etc monitoring them closer and at lower altitudes in farther ranges around their borders.


References

1.9M96 (deagel.com)

2.«Витязь» в армейской шкуре: ЗРК для борьбы с дронами поступят в войска ЮВО | Статьи | Известия (iz-ru.translate.goog)

3.Michael Jerdev on Twitter: "S-350 Vityaz air defense system now with 9M100 short range missile. #MAKS2021 #AlmazAntey https://t.co/YWLaDYCTDv" / Twitter

4. Russia Begins Mass Production Of S-500 Prometey Mobile Surface-to-air Missile Defense System - MilitaryLeak

5. S-500 Prometheus 55R6M Triumfator-M air defense missile data fact sheet | Russia Russian missile system vehicle UK | Russia Russian army military equipment vehicles UK (armyrecognition.com)

6.First S-550 air defense systems enter service in Russia — source - Military & Defense - TASS

7. Russia tests the Nudol anti-satellite ballistic missile - Military Media

7. Anti-missile 53T6M "PRS-1M" - VPK.name

8.Russia tests the Nudol anti-satellite ballistic missile - Military Media

9. https://rg.ru/2018/04/08/revoliuciia-v-tehnike-lokacii-v-rossii-sozdaetsia-radiofotonnaia-rls.html

10. В Крыму будет развернута РЛС «Яхрома»: Новости (dzen.ru)

11. Pantsir-S1 SA-22 Greyhound air defense missile gun system data | Russia Russian missile system vehicle UK | Russia Russian army military equipment vehicles UK (armyrecognition.com)

12. "Панцирь-С1М" и электромагнитные ружья. Как армия России будет бороться с беспилотниками - ТАСС (tass.ru)

13. Pantsir (deagel.com)

14. https://i.servimg.com/u/f10/19/89/13/22/023410.jpg

15.Russia developing radar for detecting hypersonic targets - Military & Defense - TASS

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