Pokhran II not fully successful: Scientist

RPK

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The Telegraph - Calcutta (Kolkata) | Nation | Pokhran stirs N-debate

New Delhi, Aug. 27: Fresh concerns articulated by a former defence research official about the performance of India’s hydrogen bomb tested 11 years ago have bolstered long-simmering arguments that India should keep open its nuclear weapons testing option, analysts said.

K. Santhanam, who was involved in the nuclear weapons tests in Pokhran on May 11 and May 13, 1998, said earlier this week that the thermonuclear device — a hydrogen bomb — tested on May 11 had not delivered its desired yield. In two sets of tests, India had exploded five weapons — a 15-kiloton fission bomb, three sub-kiloton fission bombs, and a 45-kiloton hydrogen bomb.

A team of US researchers had expressed doubts about the yield, indicating that its own analysis of seismic waves had suggested a lower yield. But Indian atomic energy scientists who had designed the weapons maintained that the tests were successful, and indicated that India did not need to test any more weapons, prompting the government to announce a unilateral moratorium.

But Santhanam, now 71, told a not-for-attribution meeting at New Delhi’s Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis (IDSA) — the defence ministry’s think tank — this week that the thermonuclear weapon device had under-performed. During a discussion on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), he said India needed to conduct more tests and added that he was against India signing the CTBT.

Defence analysts said Santhanam appeared to be airing views that he had been articulating for long in closed circles. In an informal chat, he had once described the thermonuclear test as a “bum tickle”.

This assessment of the thermonuclear weapons test is shared by several former scientists from India’s nuclear establishment, said Bharat Karnad, a strategic affairs analyst at the Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi.

In his book India’s Nuclear Policy, Karnad has documented concerns about the test among former director of the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, A.N. Prasad, and the former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission, P.K. Iyengar.

Prasad and Iyengar are among scientists who believe there was a problem with the thermonuclear test. Many of these scientists believe the 1998 test was inadequate and more are required.

Karnad’s book mentions a senior DRDO official who some six months after the May 1998 tests recommended resumption of testing to the government because he was convinced that the test of the hydrogen bomb was inadequate for the purposes of developing simulation software and designing performance-capable thermonuclear weapons. The official said he supported the official line on the test moratorium because of “functioning pressures”.

Karnad told The Telegraph that the DRDO official was Santhanam, who had earlier spoken to him on a non-attribution basis.

India’s navy chief, who is currently the senior most military commander, said today the armed forces believed they had a credible nuclear deterrent.

“As far as we are concerned, we go by the views of the scientists. They have given us certain capabilities — we are quite happy to go with it,” said Admiral Sureesh Mehta, the chairman, chiefs of staff committee.

“Our policy continues to be that of ‘no first strike’. This presumes that we will have the capability to survive a first strike, for which we maintain a credible deterrence,” he said.

The Indian armed forces were developing capabilities to launch nuclear weapons from land, from air and from the sea (underwater). The unveiling of the country’s first nuclear-capable submarine, the INS Arihant, by the Prime Minister earlier this month is evidence that India has persisted with its effort to develop credible nuclear deterrent and delivery systems.

“I am not particularly aware of what Santhanam has said. But the armed forces have a road map and we are following that,” Mehta said.
 

Soham

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I didn't get you. what stops us from matching the capability of so called big guyz if we ignore political issues like sanctions?

shortage of uranium comes to my mind but if we can solve the problem somehow with thorium and those breeder reactors and get plutonium from that. what exactly stops India from building 10,000 nukes or even more?
Funds, political will, and sense.
 

Antimony

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I didn't get you. what stops us from matching the capability of so called big guyz if we ignore political issues like sanctions?

shortage of uranium comes to my mind but if we can solve the problem somehow with thorium and those breeder reactors and get plutonium from that. what exactly stops India from building 10,000 nukes or even more?
Lets walk through this.

According to you, what would we achieve with 10,000 nukes? What kind of arsenal mix (warhead type, yields, tactical, strategic)? What are the targets that we want to hit? What kind of command structure do you want to have that needs 10,000 nukes? What is your nuclear stance - warfighting or deterrence?

And finally are you ready to commit the fund for this and for the required delivery systems? We are talking of at least 10,000 warheads here
 
I

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Here's the fun part.

  1. US and Russia have warheads ranging upwards of 10,000. Their arsenal covers not only deterrence, but also warfighting. Don't think we will ever be able to match that
  2. UK and France have a much limited number of warheads compared to the big 2. Their doctrine is deterrence, not warfighting. Neither can take on any of the big 2, nor do they want to
  3. China has around 500. She also has a belligerent Russia to deal with. If China even thinks about standing uptp Russia, she is going to turn to a wasteland. The Chinese doctrine is deterrence w.r.t. Russia. However, not this, they have enough fissile material to go upto around a 1000 more warheads
  4. We have around 200 max and we can probably go upto 500. However, we cannot match upto China's full potential, should she want to expand her arsenal, we do not have enough stocks. Our best bet therefore is not to start a nuclear war with China. They have the same opinion, that is why we have an NFU between us
  5. Pakistan : well I am not sure what they really want, but I hope its not mass destruction

In other words, we are not going to match the capability of the big guys, unless they downgrade their's drastically. What we can do is try to impress upon them that if we are attacked we will give them a hard knock before we go down and therefore, lets not attack each other. The more rsponsible powers (not Pakistan) understand this and reciprocate.

I agree with you that we should have tested more, if not for anything than to validate our design. We may have to test yet, when our arsenals start to age.
One more question sir you say our detterent is not for war fighting then why the hell we tested those low yeild tactical nukes, i think tactical nuke dont fit in a minimum credible detterence doctrine???
I hope you won't mind answering it unlike some MPs here who only pretend to be MP but really post very irrationaly.
 

Daredevil

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One more question sir you say our detterent is not for war fighting then why the hell we tested those low yeild tactical nukes, i think tactical nuke dont fit in a minimum credible detterence doctrine???
I hope you won't mind answering it unlike some MPs here who only pretend to be MP but really post very irrationaly.
Our nukes are not tactical nukes, they are strategic nukes. Tactical nukes are of very low yield, in the range of 5-10kt and they are meant to be used in battle field to take out a huge numbers of enemy force at one go. Tactical nukes have never been used till now.

Minimum credible deterrence comprises of strategic nukes which have yield greater than >50kt. This nukes if used in multiple numbers (MIRVs or multiple missiles) are enough to take down a city. So, in that sense they have credible deterrence value. India is currently estimated to have 100-200kt yield nukes in its arsenal which are enough to take few big cities in China and almost all of the Pakistan. They will make China/Pakistan think 100 times before using their nukes on India. We might go down (in case of China) but we will take down them as well.
 
I

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Our nukes are not tactical nukes, they are strategic nukes. Tactical nukes are of very low yield, in the range of 5-10kt and they are meant to be used in battle field to take out a huge numbers of enemy force at one go. Tactical nukes have never been used till now.

Minimum credible deterrence comprises of strategic nukes which have yield greater than >50kt. This nukes if used in multiple numbers (MIRVs or multiple missiles) are enough to take down a city. So, in that sense they have credible deterrence value. India is currently estimated to have 100-200kt yield nukes in its arsenal which are enough to take few big cities in China and almost all of the Pakistan. They will make China/Pakistan think 100 times before using their nukes on India. We might go down (in case of China) but we will take down them as well.
I agree sir but we tested those low yeild nukes on 13th may 1998, are you saying those nukes weren't tactical???
 

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I agree sir but we tested those low yeild nukes on 13th may 1998, are you saying those nukes weren't tactical???
Only one device is of tactical value with yield of 12kt. But I'm not sure if they are going to use them in battle field. Using tactical nukes are good enough to invite first strike from the enemy assuring MAD. Do you want to use tactical nukes at the cost of taking down our own country?. Remember, we have a NFU policy.
 

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those sub ton nukes tested in shakti test were tactical nukes........
 

ajay_ijn

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Lets walk through this.

According to you, what would we achieve with 10,000 nukes? What kind of arsenal mix (warhead type, yields, tactical, strategic)? What are the targets that we want to hit? What kind of command structure do you want to have that needs 10,000 nukes? What is your nuclear stance - warfighting or deterrence?

And finally are you ready to commit the fund for this and for the required delivery systems? We are talking of at least 10,000 warheads here
I wasn't thinking about force structure or funding issues. It was just about technical possibility.
 

sayareakd

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Only one device is of tactical value with yield of 12kt. But I'm not sure if they are going to use them in battle field. Using tactical nukes are good enough to invite first strike from the enemy assuring MAD. Do you want to use tactical nukes at the cost of taking down our own country?. Remember, we have a NFU policy.

our NFU policy was drafted after the test, those sub ton test were conducted before the policy.


it is better to have more options for our arm forces.
 

Antimony

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One more question sir you say our detterent is not for war fighting then why the hell we tested those low yeild tactical nukes, i think tactical nuke dont fit in a minimum credible detterence doctrine???
I hope you won't mind answering it unlike some MPs here who only pretend to be MP but really post very irrationaly.
First of all, to clear some confusions. I am not an MP, just an enthusiast who understands that Google does not replace experience (I am paraphrasing another member here) and therefore accutely aware of my limitations.

The MP you are talking about is perhaps most suited to talk about this. He has been part of a NATO Brigade charged with nuclear weapons. Check out his conversations with Major Deltacamelately (of Indian Army Artillery) and Brig. Ray (of IA Mahar Regiment).

Now, for your question. I am not sure what type of objective the scientists had in mind when they tested in 1998, it might have been to test their design.
A lower yield device (say 20-25 KT) does not necessarily make the warheads tactical. It can be a very likely deterrent if you hit the right targets.

But I will tell you this.

It is frighteningly ridiculous to consider a war fighting stance with 200 warheads. IIRC, nuclear war fighting is when you say that you would use nuclear warheads for tactical objectives, like attacking enemy battalions or logistical points (airbases etc.). The command rests with unit commanders, not with the political masters. You get to this mode in a full scale nuclear war. You need a very large number of warheads if you want to go to a nuclear warfighting mode. Would you go to war with only 200 HE artillery rounds, you would not.

This scenario is frightening, which is why even US and Russia have been scaling back.

To sum up
  1. We have a deterrence doctrine. We do not need large numbers of warheads, neither can we afford them
  2. We do not even need very high yield bombs. There are very few targets that would need them (hardened silos etc.) and our missiles do nt have the necessary accuracy anyway (not at this stage).
  3. China understands the devastatng nature of nuclear exchange. That's why they have an NFU with us. Keep in mind that they have micch more dangerous opponents to worry about anyway. Most of their military exercises seem to be geared towards meeting those threats
  4. Do we need to test in the future? Probably, if nothing else than to replace an aging atrsenal. This question is to be directed to the scientific community

Lastly, please don't call me Sir. Only the MPs deserve that. I am just another jingo, though probably a more informed one :)
 

Antimony

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I wasn't thinking about force structure or funding issues. It was just about technical possibility.
Technical possibility notwithstanding, what is the objective for 10,000 nukes?

A clue: China can manufacture around 1500 warheads and she has the delivery systems for that. She has limited herself to 500
 

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our NFU policy was drafted after the test, those sub ton test were conducted before the policy.


it is better to have more options for our arm forces.
Tactical nukes in the hands of Army is a 'double edged sword', it can go either way. IMVHO, we shouldn't use tactical weapons unless we know that the enemy army also has tactical weapons that they can use. And definitely we need to define the redlines for using tactical weapons in our doctrine if at all our army has tactical weapons, otherwise it will lead to a chaotic situation where everyone ends up in nuclear holocaust. Again, this is my personal opinion.
 

Yusuf

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Antimony,
The Colonel believes that the Chinese have limited themselves to 200 warheads.
 

advaita

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Now you are talking.

Properly done, a more accurate smaller yield strike is better than a sloppy high yield one, in terms of achieving objectives.

AND a test for that doesn't raise eyebrows
I never abandoned my last position. I stand by it in fact with even stronger conviction. And my last two months were only supposed to be the prologue.

Thanks to one of the forum members I got to fill up my blank spaces (practically all of them).

The delivery systems idea is just chicken feed...


Funds, political will, and sense.
Political will probably but about the other two you are so in the woods. Reading some cash flows will help.

Reason is simple "Lack of Vision". In quotes and unqualified by any other word.
 

Antimony

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Antimony,
The Colonel believes that the Chinese have limited themselves to 200 warheads.
I thought he said that Jane's analysis of around 500 was correct, but I might be wrong. But he was very clear that they can amp their arsenal to around 1500, if they want.

No way we can match them arsenal count wise
 

Antimony

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Political will probably but about the other two you are so in the woods. Reading some cash flows will help.

Reason is simple "Lack of Vision". In quotes and unqualified by any other word.
Once again, what is the objective of going for a 10,000 warhead arsenal?

Till we get a clear answer to this, any further discussion about this is meaningless.

and by the way, a quote from the Geeta is not a definitive answer unless you explain it through and through:)
 

Soham

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Reason is simple "Lack of Vision". In quotes and unqualified by any other word.
Uh..no.
"Lack of Vision" would be running madly after producing 10,000 nukes, knowing that they serve no purpose.
We'll just become like Pakistan, who is ready to take their defence budget to any limit(knowing the disastrous consequences to their economy), just to try and match India.
 

johnee

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Uh..no.
"Lack of Vision" would be running madly after producing 10,000 nukes, knowing that they serve no purpose.
We'll just become like Pakistan, who is ready to take their defence budget to any limit(knowing the disastrous consequences to their economy), just to try and match India.
I have seen similar replies a lot on this forum: "This is a trait of Pakistan, we should do different."

#1)As if, everything Pakistan has done is a mistake.
#2)As if, doing the opposite of what Pakistan(or Pakistanis) do is the right thing.

I think neither of the above is true. Pakistan(and its leadership) has shown itself has quite sagacious, otherwise to survive as a nation after an artificial creation is no small thing. They have walked tight diplomatic rope, they have fought wars with a country(India) much bigger than their own. Even today, our biggest problem comes from Pakistan. Of course, Pakistan has failed in other aspects, but in this one field(of harrassing the enemy), they have achieved a sterling success.
We can learn a lot from them in this field.

Then, the second the point: Doing the exact opposite of what Pakistan does is not right. Just because Pakistan is attracted towards one extreme, we dont have to go to the other extreme. And this applies in all fields.

Just wanted to make this point. Lets continue the nuclear debate...
 

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