Pakistan cannot sustain an 'Arms Race' with India

[Indx TechStyle]

@Indx TechStyle, honestly saying.....I am commenting because someone has opened the thread about Pakistan!! And we are making fun of Pak..take it easy buddy. I have seen you before doing that too....so why suddenly so serious now? And I suggested you in earlier page that don't engage with that troll. But you are just keep going on and on. Find a single post of me in this thread where I have engaged with that troll! The whole thread has become a farce because of you and that troll. I haven't replied to anyhing of that @manutdfan. You just have to stop replying to him; it is so easy. It is unfortunate that you are accusing me. Ok, if you don't want to see Pak-related post, then please request the member (who started it) to close the thread. Case closed. NO HARD FEELINGS.

I'm not accusing you bro.
Nor I'm against posting threads. I know pakis are good source of entertainment and it's difficult to getting by apart but we need to control our too much attention.
This is one thread, there are multiple members in multiple thread.
No offense intended to you, please don't mind.
Apologizing if hearted you.
By the way, I tried to ignore at @manutdfan but his offensive language and abusive words are too tempting.

Anyway, I've tagged you in another post about Syria. Topic is very interesting. Watch that.

 

[manutdfan]

@Indx TechStyle, honestly saying.....I am commenting because someone has opened the thread about Pakistan!! And we are making fun of Pak..take it easy buddy. I have seen you before doing that too....so why suddenly so serious now? And I suggested you in earlier page that don't engage with that troll. But you are just keep going on and on. Find a single post of me in this thread where I have engaged with that troll! The whole thread has become a farce because of you and that troll. I haven't replied to anyhing of that @manutdfan. You just have to stop replying to him; it is so easy. It is unfortunate that you are accusing me. Ok, if you don't want to see Pak-related post, then please request the member (who started it) to close the thread. Case closed. NO HARD FEELINGS.

@Superdefender I'm not sure if you're addressing me as 'that troll' but I don't mind it either.

I suggest you go back to my original post http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/posts/1143596/
Pls read everything carefully before jumping to conclusions. I've a habit of writing long treatises which put off a lot of you to sleep but I like to make them as thorough as possible. Also I shall always call a spade as a spade, come rain come hell, no matter how unpleasant it is.

There are a lot of things wrong about our country and there's no point pretending that that they don't exist. But certain sections like to pretend as if we live in Utopia and are always ready to pick up an argument on the basis of their half baked knowledge. Plus they're a waste of time anyways so I won't be elaborating on it. I've humiliated him enough and as promised I stand by my word. Plus I was getting tired of it too. Apparently these guys who talk big time about world domination cannot even handle some harmless banter.

Believe me I don't give any attention to Pakistan at all. Frankly I was apprehensive of jumping onto the Pak bashing bandwagon as I was wary of such dumb pseudo-nationalists and their distorted overly jingoistic 'facts' but alas my apprehensions did come true. The other guy was actually frothing at the mouth and maybe 2 dozen posts down before I even posted the captioned link. Basically such pseudo-nationalists possess a herd mentality and expect others to follow suit in their lunatic quests which fortunately don't go on for long since they simply don't posses the depth in character or quality. Failing which they adopt the safest route of branding those who differ with them as anti-nationalist and leftists.

In hindsight I accept that I was purposely rude and harsh to the concerned person and had overreacted. But nobody even noticed that he was using racial slurs specifically the word 'Chinkis' several times. Yes I could have asked him in a more civil way but the combination of the condescending attitude of his counter-argument to my original post plus the arrogant way in which he was using racist insults in a previous post forced my hand of which I'm not too proud of.

The person's defense was that the Chinese do the same to Indians on their forums. Personally I don't give a fuck about the Chinese but my point is if he wants to get back at them do it on their forums. Inadvertently he's only sowing the seeds for further racial prejudices while trying to satiate his misplaced sense of revenge. In places like Delhi and Haryana where any idiot thinks that it's their birthright to take racial digs at ppl from other regions you are just giving them further ammo. DFI is read not just by us members but by guests and a significant no. of them are kids and teens who are new to geopolitics. By allowing posts with such racial insults to exist DFI is sending the wrong signals I'm afraid to say. If I'm supposed to tolerate somebody's underhand racist & casteist jibes and half ass condescending statements then it's only fair that they should be able to tolerate my unadulterated opinion no matter how crude it is to their fragile senses. If one can't digest an honest opinion on his mentality and character then frankly he has no right to talk about such high ideals as nationalism, patriotism and the sacrifice required for it.

In the end I'm grateful that you have managed to knock some sense into his thick skull. Good for everybody that somebody spoke up. Waise bhi bahut unnecessary raita phail gaya hai. From my end chapter's closed. I was never a big fan of giving a** kickings to such poor helpless souls; even though I'm quite good at it

 

[bengalraider]

Okay now that the fracas has been sorted let's get back to business !
I just finished reading the pricewaterhouse cooper report on " the world in 2030".
India shall be the second largest economy on a PPP basis by 2050 with a PPP GDP of 41.384 Trillion$ ,this has been calculated using a base GDP growth of 4.1% per annum till 2050. The nominal GDP we can expect in 2050 is approximately 28$trillion up from the 2.3$trillion we have today.
Pakistan shall grow from a 246$ billion economy (nominal) today to a 2.7$ trillion economy in 2050 with a PPP GDP of 4.25$ trillion.
Now considering that defence expenditure in India remains the same at an average of 2.5% of our GDP .India shall have a Defence Budget of 1.03$trillion (PPP) or 698$billion (nominal) by 2050. Both figures are approximately 25% of the entire GDP of Pakistan. Purely on Economic terms Pakistan is fighting a losing battle here.

 

[bengalraider]

Correction the report is titled " world in 2050".
http://googleweblight.com/?lite_url...226658&sig=APY536wUWEJxyv5D8Iz-zUVbh3L00uTZNg

 

[Superdefender]

@bengalraider, if you like that much Pricewater Cooper, I am giving you this one. You will be very proud to read this. Google "McKay_final.pdf" and download it. It tells about the economy of 2100. Read it first to last (I repeat first to last). Then tell me how you like it.

 

[garg_bharat]

Okay now that the fracas has been sorted let's get back to business !
I just finished reading the pricewaterhouse cooper report on " the world in 2030".
India shall be the second largest economy on a PPP basis by 2050 with a PPP GDP of 41.384 Trillion$ ,this has been calculated using a base GDP growth of 4.1% per annum till 2050. The nominal GDP we can expect in 2050 is approximately 28$trillion up from the 2.3$trillion we have today.
Pakistan shall grow from a 246$ billion economy (nominal) today to a 2.7$ trillion economy in 2050 with a PPP GDP of 4.25$ trillion.
Now considering that defence expenditure in India remains the same at an average of 2.5% of our GDP .India shall have a Defence Budget of 1.03$trillion (PPP) or 698$billion (nominal) by 2050. Both figures are approximately 25% of the entire GDP of Pakistan. Purely on Economic terms Pakistan is fighting a losing battle here.

Please note that these projections are purely theoretical. In practice, it is always two step forward and one step back. There will be recessions when economic growth is negative. The current financial structure is bound to fail soon. A sharp 6 year recession is very close now.

Most likely India will be a 10T economy in 2050 (in today's $ terms) and Pakistan should not exist. If it exists, it will less than 1T economy.

 

[Superdefender]

Please note that these projections are purely theoretical. In practice, it is always two step forward and one step back. There will be recessions when economic growth is negative. The current financial structure is bound to fail soon. A sharp 6 year recession is very close now.

Most likely India will be a 10T economy in 2050 (in today's $ terms) and Pakistan should not exist. If it exists, it will less than 1T economy.

You have written the opposite. It should be two steps back and one step forward according to your analogy. You should not be so pessimistic. It can be detrimental to your health. You too read McKay_Final.pdf.

 

[garg_bharat]

You have written the opposite. It should be two steps back and one step forward according to your analogy. You should not be so pessimistic. It can be detrimental to your health. You too read McKay_Final.pdf.

My friend I am far more optimistic than you. Optimism and realism should go together.

False optimism is dangerous for health as well as wealth.

 

[bengalraider]

@Superdefender just went through that report as well, I think China may already be falling into the middle income trap and turning into a bear.
It's far too early to make any similar assumption about India or Asia though.
@garg_bharat On the Contrary I believe we are at the cusp of achieving one of the fastest growth rates in our history as a nation. The entire gamut of National highways, waterways,irrigation projects, pmgsk projects, village electrification, DFCs, RRTS etc are going to be revolutionary for the Indian Economy, the inland waterways and DFC alone have the capacity to boost our GDP by 1-2% ,Irrigation projects budgeted this year when complete can boost it by another 1% .True agitations like the Jat issue have hurt investor sentiment in Haryana but the big picture is positive . For the first time in our history regional satraps are fighting to develop their states faster than Gujarat to discredit the Modi model. All of this does not point to recession at all, on the contrary I think we'll hit 10% growth by 2019.

 

[bengalraider]

Anyhoo the fact remains that whatever happens we're gonna be far larger than Pakistan economically and militarily , well unless we descend into the pit of nehruvian licence raj once again that is.

 

[garg_bharat]

@bengalraider, infrastructure is only beginning.
Social integration, cohesion, removal of superstition and development of a scientific mind are necessary for India passing into a high income society.

India is at best getting into a middle income group, where it may end up where Russians are today, after 30 years.

 

[garg_bharat]

Anyhoo the fact remains that whatever happens we're gonna be far larger than Pakistan economically and militarily , well unless we descend into the pit of nehruvian licence raj once again that is.

Yes. Pakistan cannot be a competitor to India.

 

[bengalraider]

@bengalraider, infrastructure is only beginning.
Social integration, cohesion, removal of superstition and development of a scientific mind are necessary for India passing into a high income society.

India is at best getting into a middle income group, where it may end up where Russians are today, after 30 years.

Infrastructure is an important part of everything you said.
Water supply infrastructure creates opportunities for kids to go to school as they are freed from having to fetch water from rivers/ ponds. It also reduces disease and irrigation also helps in Increasing village incomes from farming.
All of these contribute to making a society better educated and more scientific.
Roads increase connectivity which makes accessing schools easier.Infrastructure includes more schools,colleges and hospitals which help increasing health levels and intelligence levels.

 

[Superdefender]

Yeah, we can easily overcome middle income barrier if we continue to grow atleast 7%. But much have to do to achieve high income league. By the way, Pakistan will not exist as a state.

 

[bengalraider]

Yeah, we can easily overcome middle income barrier if we continue to grow atleast 7%. But much have to do to achieve high income league. By the way, Pakistan will not exist as a state.

actually on this @garg_bharat may be partially correct we have simply too much of a gulf to cover to break into the HIG anytime before the end of this century.
Simply putting it the World Bank defines income groups as given below

For the current 2016 fiscal year, low-income economies are defined as those with a GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method, of $1,045 or less in 2014; middle-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of more than $1,045 but less than $12,736; high-income economies are those with a GNI per capita of $12,736 or more. Lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income economies are separated at a GNI per capita of $4,125.

http://data.worldbank.org/about/country-and-lending-groups
As of today India has broken into the lower middle income group of countries with a GNI/capita of 1570$, Pakistan is not far behind at 1400$ GNI/capita.
India should break into the Upper Middle income group in the next 25 years and shall continue in the same group for the next 111 years , keeping an average GNI growth of 100$/Annum in mind.

 

[garg_bharat]

Infrastructure is an important part of everything you said.
Water supply infrastructure creates opportunities for kids to go to school as they are freed from having to fetch water from rivers/ ponds. It also reduces disease and irrigation also helps in Increasing village incomes from farming.
All of these contribute to making a society better educated and more scientific.
Roads increase connectivity which makes accessing schools easier.Infrastructure includes more schools,colleges and hospitals which help increasing health levels and intelligence levels.

I have been working in education sector in last 10 years, and I have seen the issues firsthand.
As I said, our human resources are still not up to mark. We have done well in couple of areas like services export, but overall economy is still limping forward.

Human resources are the key to a modern wealthy society.

Exports cannot grow exponentially, even software exports, as exports are dependent on demand in other countries. The target countries are stagnating today.

The domestic demand is not as strong, as it seems from cursory examination. The IIP is weak as domestic demand driver is not strong.

 

[garg_bharat]

India still suffers severe under-investment in modern industries like electronics and semiconductors.
There is no hope in the short term as the challenge is simply too big, also in light of very low R&D base.

Aviation is one industry where India can do well in the short term, but is hamstrung due to restrictions on private sector.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Pakistan earlier hadn't thought that in future, India will be 2nd biggest economic giant and 3rd most powerful country by 2050. Pak was thinking we would be somewhat like their position and it could engage us neck-to-neck. Good luck, for your future.

I heard a pakistani TV discussion show on you tube. Pakistani panel was discussing that by 2050, indian economy shall be 49 times larger than the economy of Pakistan. They said what shall happen to our status in the region. How can world recognize a country against India whose economy is is 2% of the india (Main enemy).

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Pakistan earlier hadn't thought that in future, India will be 2nd biggest economic giant and 3rd most powerful country by 2050. Pak was thinking we would be somewhat like their position and it could engage us neck-to-neck. Good luck, for your future.

I heard a Pakistani TV discussion show on you tube. Pakistani panel was discussing that by 2050, Indian economy shall be 49 times larger than the economy of Pakistan. They said what shall happen to our status in the region. How can world recognize a country against India whose economy is is 2% of the india (Main enemy).

 

[Indx TechStyle]

I heard a pakistani TV discussion show on you tube. Pakistani panel was discussing that by 2050, indian economy shall be 49 times larger than the economy of Pakistan. They said what shall happen to our status in the region. How can world recognize a country against India whose economy is is 2% of the india (Main enemy).

Funny thing is that our nominal GDP could be larger than our GDP in PPP by 2050. :biggrin2:
Nigeria is said to become fastest growing economy of world by then.

By the way, how would pakistan watch us because then, we will have 4-5 times higher nominal GDP per capita and 3-4 times higher in PPP than pak by then? What do you think?