LOC, LAC & IB skirmishs

[Mangal]

Very balanced analysis of the current Indo- China border standoff.

 

[lcafanboy]

Full-scale India-China war likely soon, Washington will back New Delhi: Meghnad Desai

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/...likely-soon-says-meghnad-desai/1/1019794.html

 

[lcafanboy]

Chinese media thinks PLA can annihilate Indian Army. Can they? A fact check
Despite numerical inferiority, the Indian Army may give the People's Liberation Army of China a bloody nose if Doklam standoff leads to war.

Prabhash K Dutta
New Delhi, August 5, 2017 | UPDATED 17:42 IST

Doklam standoff between Indian Army and Chinese People's Liberation Army started in June. In July, a CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) report, tabled in Parliament, said that the Indian Army does not have ammunition to fight a war for more than 10 days.

And, now - in August - China's state media has said that Chinese PLA can "annihilate" Indian Army if war breaks out between the two nuclear-armed Asian neighbours.

A Global Times - a hawkish Chinese government mouthpiece - article said, "If a war spreads, the PLA is perfectly capable of annihilating all Indian troops in the border region."


The Global Times article described Indian Army as lying "far behind" in strength in comparison to PLA. It said, "It is a war with an obvious result, as PLA has made sufficient preparation for military confrontation. The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modishould be aware of the PLA's overwhelming firepower and logistics."

The claim of the Chinese state media calls for a look at how the armies of India and China stack up. According to Global Firepower website - which tracks military strengths of more than 100 countries- India and China are ranked 4 and 3 among 133 military powers of the world.

ARMIES

Chinese PLA is the biggest military power in terms of number of troops employed by it followed by the Indian Army. China has about 22.6 lakh soldiers in its army while Indian Army has 13.6 lakh active troops. This gives China a definite numerical edge over India but there are other factors at work.

If the reserve components of the army are taken into account, China's relative position weakens in comparison to India. Indian Army has about 28.44 lakh reserve soldiers while Chinese PLA has about 14.52 lakh troops under reserve components.

According to Global Firepower statistics, total military personnel under Indian Army is about 42.07 lakh while for Chinese PLA, the total strength stands at 37.12 lakh.Indian Army has 4,426 battle tanks while Chinese PLA has 6,457. This number looks bigger on paper but in reality, Chinese tanks have to be deployed over much larger border area compared to India's. Further, Indian Army possesses 6,704 armoured fighting vehicles while PLA has only 4,788.

China has numerical advantage in self-propelled artillery with 1,710 to 290 of India's. China also has 1,770 rocket projectors compared to 295 under Indian Army. But, in towed artillery, Indian Army is even numerically superior to Chinese PLA. Indian Army owns 7,414 towed artillery while PLA has 6,246 such vehicles.

AIR FORCES

China has 1,271 fighter or interceptor aircraft while Indian Army has 676 such planes. Similarly, China has 1,385 attack aircraft while the Indian Air Force owns 809 such fighter planes. But, the critical point here is again that the area over which the China has to press its aircraft into service is almost three times that of India's.

Though Indian Air Force has less number of main fighter aircraft, its support system is far superior to Chinese. The IAF has 857 transport aircraft compared to 782 owned by China. India has 346 serviceable airports compared to China's 507.

In terms of helicopters, India may actually have relative advantage. The IAF has 666 helicopters while China has 912. However, while China has 206 attack helicopter, the IAF has only 16. China's geographical area is more than three times of India's.

In all, Indian Air Force has 2,102 compared to 2,955 of China. This is in no way inferior given the strategic dimensions the respective air forces have to look after.

NAVAL FORCES

Though the Indian Navy has three aircraft carriers while China has just one, Chinese naval force looks superior on paper in comparison to India's. China has 68 submarines compared to 15 of the Indian Navy.

India has 14 frigates while China has 51. Similarly, China has 35 destroyers while Indian Navy has 11. China has 31 mine warfare craft compared to six owned by the Indian Navy. But, the naval power superiority may not actually help China in the event of war.

China cannot afford to engage with the Indian Army so far from its supply base. Its submarines and destroyers may easily be trapped in the Indian Ocean where Indian Navy is a formidable power.

GROUND REALITY

Further, China has too much at stake along its eastern borders for its army and air force to divert its full resources to Indian borders. In contrast, India's maritime borders are peaceful.

India has a shared border of 13,888 km while Chinese frontline extends upto 22,457 km. India doesn't have favourable equation on borders Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal. But, China is in border tussle with not only in the Himalayas but also in the South China Sea and East China. Its central Asian border is also a worry for Beijing.

Under such security and geostrategic circumstances, the claim of the Chinese state media looks totally misplaced and hyperbole. Chinese government is feeling domestic pressure as India resisted its attempt to alter trijunction in Doklam plateau while it went overboard with provocative and war-mongering statements.

There are signs that diplomatic channels are working and progress is being made especially after National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's Beijing visit when he met Chinese President Xi Jinping among others. Over the past two days, both India and China have said that diplomatic solution is being worked out. With this in backdrop, it seems the Chinese state media is only playing to the gallery in that country.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/doklam-china-pla-annihilate-indian-army-fact-check/1/1019542.html

 

[lcafanboy]

30000000000000000000000000000000000000

 

[Hari Sud]

Chinese media thinks PLA can annihilate Indian Army. Can they? A fact check
Despite numerical inferiority, the Indian Army may give the People's Liberation Army of China a bloody nose if Doklam standoff leads to war.

Prabhash K Dutta
New Delhi, August 5, 2017 | UPDATED 17:42 IST

Doklam standoff between Indian Army and Chinese People's Liberation Army started in June. In July, a CAG (Comptroller and Auditor General) report, tabled in Parliament, said that the Indian Army does not have ammunition to fight a war for more than 10 days.

And, now - in August - China's state media has said that Chinese PLA can "annihilate" Indian Army if war breaks out between the two nuclear-armed Asian neighbours.

A Global Times - a hawkish Chinese government mouthpiece - article said, "If a war spreads, the PLA is perfectly capable of annihilating all Indian troops in the border region."


The Global Times article described Indian Army as lying "far behind" in strength in comparison to PLA. It said, "It is a war with an obvious result, as PLA has made sufficient preparation for military confrontation. The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modishould be aware of the PLA's overwhelming firepower and logistics."

The claim of the Chinese state media calls for a look at how the armies of India and China stack up. According to Global Firepower website - which tracks military strengths of more than 100 countries- India and China are ranked 4 and 3 among 133 military powers of the world.

ARMIES

Chinese PLA is the biggest military power in terms of number of troops employed by it followed by the Indian Army. China has about 22.6 lakh soldiers in its army while Indian Army has 13.6 lakh active troops. This gives China a definite numerical edge over India but there are other factors at work.

If the reserve components of the army are taken into account, China's relative position weakens in comparison to India. Indian Army has about 28.44 lakh reserve soldiers while Chinese PLA has about 14.52 lakh troops under reserve components.

According to Global Firepower statistics, total military personnel under Indian Army is about 42.07 lakh while for Chinese PLA, the total strength stands at 37.12 lakh.Indian Army has 4,426 battle tanks while Chinese PLA has 6,457. This number looks bigger on paper but in reality, Chinese tanks have to be deployed over much larger border area compared to India's. Further, Indian Army possesses 6,704 armoured fighting vehicles while PLA has only 4,788.

China has numerical advantage in self-propelled artillery with 1,710 to 290 of India's. China also has 1,770 rocket projectors compared to 295 under Indian Army. But, in towed artillery, Indian Army is even numerically superior to Chinese PLA. Indian Army owns 7,414 towed artillery while PLA has 6,246 such vehicles.

AIR FORCES

China has 1,271 fighter or interceptor aircraft while Indian Army has 676 such planes. Similarly, China has 1,385 attack aircraft while the Indian Air Force owns 809 such fighter planes. But, the critical point here is again that the area over which the China has to press its aircraft into service is almost three times that of India's.

Though Indian Air Force has less number of main fighter aircraft, its support system is far superior to Chinese. The IAF has 857 transport aircraft compared to 782 owned by China. India has 346 serviceable airports compared to China's 507.

In terms of helicopters, India may actually have relative advantage. The IAF has 666 helicopters while China has 912. However, while China has 206 attack helicopter, the IAF has only 16. China's geographical area is more than three times of India's.

In all, Indian Air Force has 2,102 compared to 2,955 of China. This is in no way inferior given the strategic dimensions the respective air forces have to look after.

NAVAL FORCES

Though the Indian Navy has three aircraft carriers while China has just one, Chinese naval force looks superior on paper in comparison to India's. China has 68 submarines compared to 15 of the Indian Navy.

India has 14 frigates while China has 51. Similarly, China has 35 destroyers while Indian Navy has 11. China has 31 mine warfare craft compared to six owned by the Indian Navy. But, the naval power superiority may not actually help China in the event of war.

China cannot afford to engage with the Indian Army so far from its supply base. Its submarines and destroyers may easily be trapped in the Indian Ocean where Indian Navy is a formidable power.

GROUND REALITY

Further, China has too much at stake along its eastern borders for its army and air force to divert its full resources to Indian borders. In contrast, India's maritime borders are peaceful.

India has a shared border of 13,888 km while Chinese frontline extends upto 22,457 km. India doesn't have favourable equation on borders Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan and Nepal. But, China is in border tussle with not only in the Himalayas but also in the South China Sea and East China. Its central Asian border is also a worry for Beijing.

Under such security and geostrategic circumstances, the claim of the Chinese state media looks totally misplaced and hyperbole. Chinese government is feeling domestic pressure as India resisted its attempt to alter trijunction in Doklam plateau while it went overboard with provocative and war-mongering statements.

There are signs that diplomatic channels are working and progress is being made especially after National Security Advisor Ajit Doval's Beijing visit when he met Chinese President Xi Jinping among others. Over the past two days, both India and China have said that diplomatic solution is being worked out. With this in backdrop, it seems the Chinese state media is only playing to the gallery in that country.
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/doklam-china-pla-annihilate-indian-army-fact-check/1/1019542.html

Stupid and elementary comparison. Not worth the paper it is written on.

Just compare how many boots can hit the mountain at four or five critical points at the height of 12,000 feet in all places including Sikkim, Arunachal, Ladakh and central sector. You will be surprised to know that both sides are equally matched. Chinese infrastructure is closeby but have to be supplied from mainland China on a very difficult rail line built on permafrost. India has bad infrastructure but an excellent long distance supply line. Hence Chinese, and Indian advantages and disadvantages cancel out.

Why is this author comparing self propelled guns. How many can climb mountains and be effective - probably none, leave aside a dozen or so. Really, if Indian light artillery M777 arrives in time, it will be helicoptered from mountain top to mountain top and blow holes out of Chinese defences. So far these are not here, here neither side as advantages or disadvantages.

Boots on the ground is key and how well they can be supplied for offence and diffence. That comparison of 4.2 million and 3.7 million is for the birds. An invading army needs 1:9 advantage. Chinese do not have that advantage in Chumbi, Tawang, Daulat Beg Oldi or Chusul, hence they will posture but will not come.

Let us deal with the IAF comparison. This again is for the birds. IAF is technically very superior with superior AWACS and air to air missiles on the planes. It can blow up Chinese planes from far. Chinese would not risk a few planes shot down and pilots in Indian hands. Also, Indian Air Force have a much superior Brahmos missile with pin point accuracy which can blow up their airfields. Yes Chinese have missiles with greater range but other than themselves and their high pitch psychological warfare, nobody has seen them in action. Their planes cannot take off with full load and fuel as most air bases are at 6,000 to 8,000 feet in Tibetan plateau. These planes can be blown up when being fuelled up for action.

There is only one or two things in Navy, India has to be beware. They have more submarines, although these are noisy and need huge maintenance when deployed, these can be detected and chased out. But a dozen or so could force Indian Navy to the port, but Chinese oil lifeline is Indian hands. Anytime it can be blocked, just cancelling that economic might which China so happily boasts off.

The forgotten advantage Chinese have, is Pakistan in the midst of a Indo - China fight. They can unleash their military to grab Kashmir and Pathankote. You need US to keep Pakistan out of the fight. Failing that nuclear holocast is always a possibility.

 

[roma]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...-weeks-chinese-expert/articleshow/59933663.cm



Chinese daily talks of military operations in Doklam
Saibal Dasgupta| TNN | Updated: Aug 6, 2017, 12:47 AM IST
HIGHLIGHTS

• China will not allow the military standoff in Doklam, said an expert
• Global Times editorial said Modi government’s hard line stance is sustained by neither laws nor strength
• It said India cannot bully China like other countries in South Asia

File photo of PLA air force personnel
BEIJING: A Chinese academic said that China is planning a "small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two weeks" from the Doklam area even as an editorial in state-run Global Times on Saturday accused the Modi government of "recklessly" pushing New Delhi into war by adopting a "hard line" towards Beijing.

"China will not allow the military standoff between China and India in Doklam to last for too long, and there may be a small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two weeks," Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said in an article in Global Times. Hu further wrote that the "Chinese side will inform the Indian foreign ministry before its operation". However, he did not elaborate on how he had arrived at the "two-week" period.

India and China are engaged in a border standoff in the Doklam area near Sikkim since June 16 when Indian forces tried to resist Chinese attempts to build a road in an area that Bhutan claims as its territory. The road, which leads towards the Indian border, would give Chinese forces a military advantage. Global Times also continued to unleash anti-India rhetoric through its editorials when it accused Modi of "gambling" with the destiny of Indians. An editorial article said that PM Modi should be aware of the "overwhelming" strength of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).

"It is a war with an obvious result," the editorial said. "PM Narendra Modi should be aware of the PLA's overwhelming firepower and logistics. Indian border troops are no rival to PLA field forces. If a war spreads, the PLA is perfectly capable of annihilating all Indian troops in the border region," the daily said.

The editorial further said, "Modi government's hard line stance is sustained by neither laws nor strength. This administration is recklessly breaking international norms.

"Its move is irresponsible to regional security and is gambling against India's destiny and its people's well-being. If the Modi government refuses to stop, it will push its country into a war that India has no power to control," it went on.

The daily said India cannot bully China like other countries in South Asia. The editorial comes a day after the Chinese defence ministry said that India should not test its patience over Doklam and that "restraint has a bottom line". Meanwhile, Chinese consul-general Ma Zhanwu said peace and tranquility along the border were valuable to both countries and they should focus on areas of shared interest.
"There are always differences, problems. It's just like brothers and sisters. If you have a brother or a sister you will have differences. You might have differences with your parents as well. But that doesn't mean you totally stop dealing with your brother on other issues," he said.

 

[Screambowl]

Their planes cannot take off with full load and fuel as most air bases are at 6,000 to 8,000 feet in Tibetan plateau. These planes can be blown up when being fuelled up for action.

.

That means they will over come this problem by increasing the number of fighters deployed and reducing the payload to half.

 

[Kazah]

______________________________________________

 

[The Ultranationalist]

Be preapred for another 1967 like slaughter and also blockade of all chinese shipping via the Indian ocean.

 

[captonjohn]

Did anyone have any research about Dokalam area? Chinese positions, connectivity, possible routes for attack, etc.

 

[rock127]

Be preapred for another 1967 like slaughter and also blockade of all chinese shipping via the Indian ocean.

Bring some Tibetians to help Indian Army again.

Tibetians should stop those useless self immolation and fight and kill some arrogant Han Chinese. Tibetians contributed before and should do it again.It would irritate Han Chinese.They are the REAL Mujahiddins whose land is occupied by evil Han Chinese.

The Tibetans who fought the 1971 war

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Frontier_Force

 

[captonjohn]

China may launch offensive against India in next two weeks. After some analysis I found that China cannot attack on Doklam as this area is extremely rough and not good for war. China has better connectivity and infrastructure near Sikkim and near Uttarakhand.

Best guess, Chinese if they are smart, will attack in Uttarakhand border as they have better place and connectivity to fight and India is at not good place there.

To be more precise, Chinese will attack on 'Pulam Sumda' region in Uttarakhand. It is surrounded by China from two sides.

 

[Akshay Fenix]

Well if the Chinese are smart then they won't attack India.

 

[valkyrie_1810]

China may launch offensive against India in next two weeks. After some analysis I found that China cannot attack on Doklam as this area is extremely rough and not good for war. China has better connectivity and infrastructure near Sikkim and near Uttarakhand.

Best guess, Chinese if they are smart, will attack in Uttarakhand border as they have better place and connectivity to fight and India is at not good place there.

To be more precise, Chinese will attack on 'Pulam Sumda' region in Uttarakhand. It is surrounded by China from two sides.

So war is a green light? I don't see where this situation is heading towards,if they seriously wanted a peace negotiation in the first place then there wouldn't have been this much publicity in the first place,who are these sources? Where do they come from? Is there any actual PLA website which saying the same thing? Given the rhetoric there wouldn't be any element of surprise if war literally broke out.

 

[valkyrie_1810]

Well if the Chinese are smart then they won't attack India.

That's where you are wrong mate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_Campaign

 

[Akshay Fenix]

That's where you are wrong mate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Pests_Campaign

LOL the great Mao afraid of sparrows.

Only a mad man can kill those cute little birds.

 

[roma]

i wish i had the time for a fuller reply ....all i can say is that this is beginning to look really serious ....i dont think either side is kidding or psyops ..... neither side can afford to back down and with all of asean watching that is and added reason why niether can .... we are headed for at least a short conflict ending in stalemate or a widening of the conflict is also possible ....serious stuff here could erupt in so a larger scenario threatening regional peace .... only good thing is if pakc also gets involved , then it gives us the excuse we needed to solve some 70 year old problems

 

[Joker]

The problem here is that what guarantees a limited war?
Chinese 11 the Pooh does not understand that India's actions are manifestation of years of dislike for chinis. All due to the idiotic policies of CCP. And this time around there is no Banditji and VK Menon to spread Hindi chinis Bhai Bhai churan to Indians. This time around it's Modi at the helm. Remember he has NOT appointed a full-time defence minister. This means the defence ministry is run by PMO. This could be the Surprise chinis won't be able to digest.

 

[square]

time has probably came for indian media to reply the chinese papers in the same tone !

its nessesery to keep the public upbeat ....

presently indian media only advertising these everyday warning from chinese papers.....

 

[Hemu Vikram Aditya]

China daily warns of PLA might, ‘small-scale operation in 2 weeks’
“The Chinese side will inform the Indian Foreign Ministry before its operation,” he told Global Times. Hu also said India would have to “bear all the consequences”, and that ties between the two countries were “severely damaged”.
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Written by Apurva , Shubhajit Roy | Beijing/new Delhi | Published:August 6, 2017 6:08 am

An editorial in the Saturday issue of Global Times also said the PLA had made “sufficient preparation for military confrontation”.
RELATED NEWS

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China is planning a “small-scale military operation” to “expel” Indian troops from the Doklam area “within two weeks”, an article in the State-run Global Times said here Saturday. “China will not allow the military standoff between China and India in Doklam to last for too long, and there may be a small-scale military operation to expel Indian troops within two weeks, Chinese experts said after six ministries and institutions made remarks on the incident within the past 24 hours,” the article in the daily run by the Communist Party of China said.

Quoting Hu Zhiyong, a research fellow at the Institute of International Relations of the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, the article said, “The series of remarks from the Chinese side within a 24-hour period sends a signal to India that there is no way China will tolerate the Indian troops’ incursion into Chinese territory for too long.”

“The Chinese side will inform the Indian Foreign Ministry before its operation,” he told Global Times. Hu also said India would have to “bear all the consequences”, and that ties between the two countries were “severely damaged”. While there was no official response from the Ministry of External Affairs, Indian government sources downplayed the threat and said they did not wish to add anything beyond what was said by ministry spokesperson Gopal Baglay on Friday and External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj on Thursday. “We have already said that war is not an option, and diplomatic channels are being used to defuse the situation. I think we will stick to that position, and not respond to such provocative articles in the Chinese media,” a top Indian diplomat said.






Sikkim Impasse Explained: What Is The India-China-Bhutan Border Standoff?













An Indian source well-networked into the Chinese think-tank circuit told The Sunday Express that Hu is “a known India-baiter”, but “does not speak for the Chinese military establishment”. “I have met him at several conferences in China, he is quite condescending towards India, and negative in his views. But he is not a surrogate for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA),” he said, adding that Hu belongs to a provincial think-tank and not a Central think-tank.

An editorial in the Saturday issue of Global Times also said the PLA had made “sufficient preparation for military confrontation”. “It is a war with an obvious result,” the editorial said. “The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi should be aware of the PLA’s overwhelming firepower and logistics. Indian border troops are no rival to PLA field forces. If a war spreads, the PLA is perfectly capable of annihilating all Indian troops in the border region.”

Over Thursday and Friday, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Defence have released statements on the ongoing Doklam stand-off. According to Global Times, the military operation would aim to seize Indian personnel “illegally lingering” in Chinese territory. The article also mentioned “exercises” in Tibet. “China Central Television reported Friday that the Tibet military region conducted live fire exercises in recent days in Tibet. The exercise began at 4 am. A group swiftly took ground and loaded ammunition. The firing began just after dawn. The army used different ways to attack the same target.”

Zhao Gancheng, the director of the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies, was quoted as telling Global Times, “The exercises are a sign that China could use military means to end the standoff and the chances of doing so are increasing as the Indian side is still saying one thing and doing another.”

About Zhao, Indian sources said that while he is a respected India hand, he was reiterating the Chinese government position. “He is a reputed expert, probably approaching retirement. But he too is a provincial think-tank expert, and is essentially repeating what Chinese diplomats and officials have been saying. There is nothing new,” sources said.

According to the article, the patience of China and its public was “wearing thin” and it did not want the dispute to “impact” the upcoming BRICS Summit, which India will attend in the first week of September. “India, which has stirred up the incident, should bear all the consequences. And no matter how the standoff ends, Sino-Indian ties have been severely damaged and strategic distrust will linger,” Hu told Global Times.

The Doklam stand-off began in mid-June when Indian troops stopped the PLA from constructing a road in the area. While Bejiing claims the region as sovereign Chinese territory, India says the area lies at the trijunction of China, India and Bhutan, and it had been decided that no country would take unilateral action *there.

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