I keep hearing people defend HAL with there is NO big order (from IAF).
Allow me to put it this way: sounds like India national security should serve HAL (its investment efficiency, and thus its profit, its business continuity, prosperity, so on and so forth), NOT the other way around.
I understand there is a long-term national development strategy behind all this. I know it's NOT that easy for just a "black or white" situation. And I also agree there is so-called synergy issue between various entities (IAF, MoD, HAL), and their interests.
Nevertheless, there supposed to be some "tipping point", isn't it? When will be critical time that someone rise and yell to HAL: we simply don't have time to wait for a reasonable investment & production rate.
Before 2/24, so many wise people said NO way, Russia is NOT going to invade Ukraine. Likewise, many Ukraine arms manufacturers, counting on that, could be saying: "without certain order quantity, I'm NOT going to raise pace of my factory...". (I admit never been good to make good analogy).
Exactly when will be our tipping point?
Fair enough. Then I hope that HAL learn something called contingency plan. Truly wish time will tells us they did...
Such weird logic like HAL exists in a vacuum. HAL more or less fulfils their mandate, I 100% think they fall short in some areas but on the whole they perform to their capacities within their remit
want monkeys? Pay peanuts. How did Boeing,LM, Dassualt, Sukhoi etc etc become what they are?
Some people actually seem to think this is a chicken and egg paradox when it’s incredibly simple- PRODUCTION CAPACITY COMES FROM ORDERS. No one, NO ONE, on the planet is going to invest in capacity that will be unutilised (unless you are China) This is even more pronounced now with the LCA where something like 70% of the LRUs are outsourced to tier 2/3 PRIVATE suppliers in India. The private sector will never issue a work order without payment upfront and a signed contract as they have fiduciary responsibility to their shareholders.
Now I think HAL *may* have figured out just basic logic- they cannot become successful by relying on sporadic, inconsistent and low level volume orders from Indian services especially when they are done under such shady circumstances (wtf is KA226 all about?) so they are trying to get dependable revenue streams outside of India now, whether they are successful with that is an open question but it’s what they need to do.
the frankly disgusting saga of the LCH has said it all, HAL has done pretty much everything but pay the armed forces to order the LCH at this point up to and including sending the LCH to the frontlines during the Ladakh tensions in 2020, an almost unheard of precedent for an experimental program. So don’t try and tell me HAL is the main contributor to this mess. It just doesn’t add up.
Let’s hope they recruit the *right* people with the right contacts who know how to grease the right hands as is the practice in the arms industry all over the world.
So I’m short- no Indian national security doesn’t exist to serve HAL. HAL’s woes are a symptom of the mess that is Indian procurement policies, substitute HAL for any Indian defence entity and you get similarly depressing outlooks- why did MKU go years without any Indian orders and almost entirely sustain itself from the export market? Why are cash rich mega corporations in India not building up defence businesses in India? India has the 4th or 5th largest defence budget on paper (CAPEX obviously a fraction of that) but why has this not translated into Indian defence success stories? You can’t tell me this is all HAL’s fault.