I said deferred not cancelled just like what happened at Dassualt when they got export orders from Egypt and India for Rafales- the French users deferred their deliveries by a few years so Dassualt could service export customers first. So that doesn't mean less aircraft for the IAF
And I said this will ONLY occur if RMAF desires their birds before 36 months, within 36 months HAL will easily augment their production to service any additional orders, in fact they might even be able to do so within 24 months and not impact existing orders.
It's definitely worth HAL trying to gobble up as much revenue outside of India as they can as having to rely solely on fickle Indian customers puts them at a disadvantage
France reduced Rafale deliveries to 11 a year for some years because the money was not available for the French air force to take more than the minimum Dassault could produce for production to remain economically viable. IAF is in the opposite situation - needs lots of frames fast. Dassault also cross-trained assembly workers so they could switch from business jet to fighter assembly.
How is HAL going to quickly increase Tejas production to avoid deferring IAF deliveries? IAF is scheduled to take 16 a year from a total production capacity of 16 a year, isn't it? +4 possibly from the ex-Sukhoi line (once it is set up for Tejas). Last I heard though was that Nashik was going to be used for Tejas Mk1 upgrades to Mk1Aish standard. Agreed, they could be shelved for a few years. Of course, if another line with capacity to produce 8 a year is set up, a 36 frame export order would not be a problem.
Agreed, relying on a customer as fickle as IAF is not perfect, especially since HAL's annual accounts show that IAF does not settle its bills on time, starving the company of cash. It would be poetic justice, wouldn't it, if IAF had to wait for deliveries because HAL had got an order from a more reliable customer.
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