Kind of pushes JF-17 to the top of the list, doesn't it?
Even without the problem of Israeli content, I don't see how HAL could supply 36 to Malaysia without delaying delivery of 36 to IAF by more than 2 years, so getting the order would create problems because of HAL's disinclination to increase annual production capacity. I think that such an order would have kept an extra 8 per annum plant busy for 5+ years.
People tell me it is a risk too far to build another assembly plant. Not if you are a business with an ambition to break into the world market to profit from a competitive product range (Mk1A, MWF). But fair enough, while GOI wants to India to become a force in the world arms market, HAL finds it all too frighteningly risky to make that a possibility.
Having said that, if 90% share owner GOI won't invest in HAL to expand capacity or would take years to reach such a decision and stump up the money, selling fighter aircraft abroad in numbers will remain a GOI dream and Mk1A and MWF will not have much of an export future.
Production follows commitments everywhere on this planet. Do not fall into the trap of thinking the laws of economics do not apply to India.
Everyone complaining about HAL’s low production rates thus far utterly fail to recognise that until March 2021 HAL had only a commitment for 16+16+8 LCA, 4-5/year is a reasonable rate with this in mind.
16/year is planned only for MK1A and is derived by the stipulated delivery period- 5 years.
besides do we really think the IAF is in a position to induct LCAs at a rate much higher than this? No freaking way could they absorb 40+ fighters/year when they are struggling to even absorb 6 FOC LCAs. Even for MRFA/MMRCA 2.0 the stipulation in the RFI is for 14 MRFA/year.
IF HAL wins the Malaysian contract they’ll build facilities/add capacity and do whatever is needed to meet their contract commitments- this won’t interfere with any other contractual obligations.
That said I can’t see the LCA getting far with the Malaysian competition, it’s far too over spec’d and overpriced for what they are looking for. I’d hope that HAL would offer the SPORT for this requirement but I can’t see Indian defence export entities being anywhere near dynamic enough to deal with these efforts.
