Copy pasting an excellent answer of mig21 replacement from brf .
Credit to laxman from brf.
We may want many things to happen but nothing is going to change...
I'm reposting one if my earlier posts...
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From 2019 to 2029, IAF has retired/is planning to retire thd following jets:-
2 Sqdns of MIG27 (already retired)
6 Sqdns of MIG21
3 Sqdns of Jaguars
Total 11 Squadrons to be retired...
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They will induct/have inducted the following:-
2 Sqdns Tejas Mk1
2 Sqdns Su30 MKI
2 Sqdns Rafale
1 Sqdn MIG29
4 Sqdns Tejas Mk1A
Total 11 squadrons to be inducted...
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Out of the new squadrons coming up,
One Su30 squadron is already raised in Thanjavur, 2nd one will mostly be raised in Eastern sector (Chabua probably)...
2 Rafale squadrons will be ready by 2022, one in Western sector and one in Eastern sector...
Tejas will move to Rajasthan and Srinagar and will be fully ready by 2022/23...
One MIG29 squadron will also be raised by 2025 and will be based in Western sector...
And Tejas Mk1A squadrons will start being raised from 2025 at rate of 1 squadron per year and all of them will be in Western sector only...
So, even by 2025 you will have enough replacements for 4 Bison squadrons in Western sector...
So, we can expect retirement of Bisons to commence 2023 or 2024 itself...
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2 squadrons of MRFA may also come in this decade, but I doubt it is going to go anywhere... If things go well, we may see MRFA cancelled and 2-3 more squadrons of Rafale ordered as well...
Tejas Mk2 is not going come in numbers this decade...
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So, while situation is bad, it is not going to get any worse... It will only get better from 2022 onwards...
Yes, damage is already done by not ordering Tejas earlier and in larger numbers... But it can not be changed now...
IAF won't be ordering more Mk1 or Mk1A either... They'll stick with the current plans...