Know Your 'Rafale'

Gessler

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yee loo bhaaeee ....


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The unfortunate fact though, is that India simply does not have the funds to buy 114 jets of the ilk that are competing here (Rafale, Typhoon, US planes...ignore Russians).

With the required licensed production, the cost to manufacture will undoubtedly be considerably higher than off the shelf buy. Yes, money goes back into the system that way, but still upfront cost takes it's toll on capital expenditure.

Say Rafale or Typhoon wins this competition. The cost of a deal will be in excess of $30-35 billion because of the licensed production clause. We do not have this kind of money to spare. After 36 Rafales IGA and S-400, we are spent. The appetite for large deals is not there for the next 5-6 years at least, shorter if any major rightsizing happens on the fronts that are bloated sinkholes for expenditure (Army).

The very fact that even an Acceptance of Necessity (AON) for the 114 jets has not been issued yet (let alone RFI and RFP) shows this competition for what it really is for the moment - a time-pass.

We are in no position to sign this deal before 2025. Meaning first squadrons cannot be formed before 2030. So relax.

Only real way to fill the numbers with some high-end jets in meantime is with either/or:

1) Continue to place additional off the shelf orders for Rafales in 36 batch increments. Which will undoubtedly come with increasing locally produced content as DRAL infra is in place.

2) Forego the local production in its entirety and just sign off on a G2G for 114 jets. That should knock off a significant chunk of the upfront cost.

No matter what they say now, they will have to deal with these realities sooner or later. Just like how the reality manifested itself when it became apparent we were in no position to sign for 126 Rafales with licensed production.
 

bose

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Unless you elaborate on your point, a stupid statement like that will attract vehement criticism.
The statements are simple to understand ...

India's problems :

1. SU 30 MKI is very good and brilliant fighters but comes with poor availability of around 65 - 70 %.... IAF does not want to go for more in numbers, not more than 300s of SU 30 MKI to offset the low availability it has... So IAF at any point of time will have 210 nos of SU 30 MKI out of 300s...

2. Mirage 2000 Upgraded is very good fighter but we have only 50 of them ... It is not getting any younger with years ... We are not getting more from any other source too. Recently we lost 2 and that can not replace them with new ones...

3. Mig 29 UPG is very good fighter with very high maintenance and fuel consumption ... around 90 of them are with us they have old air frame and fuel guzzlers...

4. Mig 21 Bis + Mig 27 + Jaguar's [Darin upgraded] - they are out dated and should have been phased out long time back ...They will be severely challenged by modern air defense system.

5. India's fighter strength is come down from 33 to 31 squadrons [ sanctioned is 42] . It is going to come down more in coming years ...

6. HAL is not been able to quickly scale up the production of LCAs ... Producing 18 LCAs per year is not enough to meet the IAF requirements.... IAF requires 36 aircraft's minimum per year to quickly offset the depleting squadron strength ...

So the result is IAF will continue to lose the squadron strength in coming years even if we consider the 36 Rafale coming in next three years ...

Now see what Chinese and Pakistanis are coming up against India ... JF 17 Block 3 is coming up this years where as LCA 1A1 in another two years ... Chinese are putting up there fifth generations J20 in TIBET region where as IAF will get similar aircraft in another 10 - 15 years ...

7. MMRCA 2.0 is another 5 - 6 years away before we get any single aircraft from it ... LCA Mark II is another 6 - 7 years to go for production and AMCA is another 10 - 12 years to start production ...

Conclusion:

So India has no clear cut roadmap to bump up the squadron strength nor Modi government has been able to arrest the depleting IAF squadron strength in last five years ...

My two cents :

1. Get another two squadron of Rafale and stationed in North East to counter China else in another 2 - 3 years IAF will be severely stressed / tested out in that region ...

2. A hard kick in HALs ass so hard that they produce no less that 36 nos [ Nasik + Bangalore] combined ...

3. Include private players for alternative production units we can get another 18 from them in another 2 - 3 years ...

3. Get 25 odd Mig 29 upgraded from Russia to add to IAF strength of existing 90...

4. My preference is Rafale for MMRCA 2.0 as they will come much quickly than others and it will be quickly inducted into IAF as they already have the experience of it for 3 to 4 years ...

Finally:

I do not believe money can be any excuse for not modernizing the IAF rapidly ... India have to invest lot of money on military there is no escape from it ... else later we have to feel sorry to today in decision ...

IAF need around 750 of 4.0 / 4.5 generation aircraft [ SU 30 MKI, Mirage 2000, Rafale, LCAs 1 & 2, Mig 29 ].

IAF have to do what Indian Navy has done to Pakistani Navy ... Over whelm them with Quality & Quantity ...

Mark my word 200 to 250 Rafale in another 5 years in IAF along with 300 / 350 SU 30 MKI + 200 LCA 1A will very scary for Pakistanis and Chinese combined ...
 
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Flying Dagger

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The statements are simple to understand ...

India's problems :

1. SU 30 MKI is very good and brilliant fighters but comes with poor availability of around 65 - 70 %.... IAF does not want to go for more in numbers, not more than 300s of SU 30 MKI to offset the low availability it has... So IAF at any point of time will have 240 nos of SU 30 MKI out of 300s...

2. Mirage 2000 Upgraded is very good fighter but we have only 50 of them ... It is not getting any younger with years ... We are not getting more from any other source too. Recently we lost 2 and that can not replace them with new ones...

3. Mig 29 UPG is very good fighter with very high maintenance and fuel consumption ... around 90 of them are with us they have old air frame and fuel guzzlers...

4. Mig 21 Bis + Mig 27 + Jaguar's [Darin upgraded] - they are out dated and should have been phased out long time back ...They will be severely challenged by modern air defense system.

5. India's fighter strength is come down from 33 to 31 squadrons [ sanctioned is 42] . It is going to come down more in coming years ...

6. HAL is not been able to quickly scale up the production of LCAs ... Producing 18 LCAs per year is not enough to meet the IAF requirements.... IAF requires 36 aircraft's minimum per year to quickly offset the depleting squadron strength ...

So the result is IAF will continue to lose the squadron strength in coming years even if we consider the 36 Rafale coming in next three years ...

Now see what Chinese and Pakistanis are coming up against India ... JF 17 Block 3 is coming up this years where as LCA 1A1 in another two years ... Chinese are putting up there fifth generations J20 in TIBET region where as IAF will get similar aircraft in another 10 - 15 years ...

7. MMRCA 2.0 is another 5 - 6 years away before we get any single aircraft from it ... LCA Mark II is another 6 - 7 years to go for production and AMCA is another 10 - 12 years to start production ...

Conclusion:

So India has no clear cut roadmap to bump up the squadron strength nor Modi government has been able to arrest the depleting IAF squadron strength in last five years ...

My two cents :

1. Get another two squadron of Rafale and stationed in North East to counter China else in another 2 - 3 years IAF will be severely stressed / tested out in that region ...

2. A hard kick in HALs ass so hard that they produce no less that 36 nos [ Nasik + Bangalore] combined ...

3. Include private players for alternative production units we can get another 18 from them in another 2 - 3 years ...

3. Get 25 odd Mig 29 upgraded to add to IAF strength of existing 90...

4. My preference is Rafale for MMRCA 2.0 as they will come much quickly than others and it will be quickly inducted into IAF as they already have the experience of it for 3 to 4 years ...

Finally:

I do not believe money can be any excuse for not modernizing the IAF rapidly ... India have to invest lot of money on military there is no escape from it ... else later we have to feel sorry to today in decision ...

IAF need around 750 of 4.0 / 4.5 generation aircraft [ SU 30 MKI, Rafale, LCAs 1 & 2, Mig 29 ].

IAF have to do what Indian Navy has done to Pakistani Navy ... Over whelm them with Quality & Quantity ...
1. More than low availability which can actually be increased it is the high operational cost of Su 30 mki. A heavy jet in its class will consume more fuel and human resources too.

2. Mirage 2000 we could have bought some old ones to check the depleting squadron . Highly unlikely now.

3. Mig 29 UPG have actually high availability as well as low maintenance issues they aren't gas guzzler anymore. The new engines have solve those issues. Problem is with IN mig 29 k .

And we don't have 90 mig 29 I think 62 around are available . There is a plan to acquire 21 - 34 UPG mig 29

4. Jaguar are still good enough and can be continued till we arrest shortfall of squadrons. Atleast 70 frames are almost new . Mig 27 should be sent back right away we need bison till we have Tejas.

5. And 6. So 36 + 18 You want to produce 54 Tejas from 3 assembly line let's say they run for 15 years then we will have 45 squadrons of Tejas . Dude is that your solution or plan to bankrupt IAF. :)

Let's see we will have 15 Sukhoi + 6 Mig 29 + Mirage 2000 + 2 Rafale + 2 Tejas squadron by 2022

If plan to get 2 more Mig 29 squadrons goes through . 27 4th gen along with 3-4 Jaguar (28-30) and 2 Mig 21 bison (till 2024-25) . 32-33 squadrons of potent fighter jets.

We can throw in 2 or 3 more Rafale and yippee it's 35+ around with 1.5 squadron of Tejas coming every year. By 2030 we will be able to address the shortfall .

To provide extra buffer we should see if we can get some more mig 29 or mirage 2000 at efficient price. That's the solution.
 

bose

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1. More than low availability which can actually be increased it is the high operational cost of Su 30 mki. A heavy jet in its class will consume more fuel and human resources too.

2. Mirage 2000 we could have bought some old ones to check the depleting squadron . Highly unlikely now.

3. Mig 29 UPG have actually high availability as well as low maintenance issues they aren't gas guzzler anymore. The new engines have solve those issues. Problem is with IN mig 29 k .

And we don't have 90 mig 29 I think 62 around are available . There is a plan to acquire 21 - 34 UPG mig 29

4. Jaguar are still good enough and can be continued till we arrest shortfall of squadrons. Atleast 70 frames are almost new . Mig 27 should be sent back right away we need bison till we have Tejas.

5. And 6. So 36 + 18 You want to produce 54 Tejas from 3 assembly line let's say they run for 15 years then we will have 45 squadrons of Tejas . Dude is that your solution or plan to bankrupt IAF. :)

Let's see we will have 15 Sukhoi + 6 Mig 29 + Mirage 2000 + 2 Rafale + 2 Tejas squadron by 2022

If plan to get 2 more Mig 29 squadrons goes through . 27 4th gen along with 3-4 Jaguar (28-30) and 2 Mig 21 bison (till 2024-25) . 32-33 squadrons of potent fighter jets.

We can throw in 2 or 3 more Rafale and yippee it's 35+ around with 1.5 squadron of Tejas coming every year. By 2030 we will be able to address the shortfall .

To provide extra buffer we should see if we can get some more mig 29 or mirage 2000 at efficient price. That's the solution.
Thanks for correcting me ...

I may be wrong but I have a bad feeling that something big is coming up in next 2 to 3 years before end of Modi current tenure ... waiting for another 10 years to see good times will be too late...

The current defense budget is not adequate to address the IAF needs. My believe is there have to be big a increase of budget for armed forces ...

Indian Navy is in good shape v/s PN and with new induction in another 2 years it will be better what it is today and they have a clear road map...

Indian Army has severe shortfall in Ammunition [ Anti Tank missiles, Artillery, Tanks, etc] but new addition hardware coming up quickly in emergency basis... In another 2 years it will be much much better position ...

My concern is IAF with depleting squadron ... it seems they do not have proper roadmap nor government is serious ...

If there is a shortage of money for IAF ... government should appeal to citizens ... we all will come forward in whatever way we can ... we can also utilize the massive amount of gold stored in the temples ...
 
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amit19

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I may be wrong but I have a bad feeling that something big is coming up in next 2 to 3 years before end of Modi current tenure
jeee baaat !!
saheee pehechaanaa !!!

IAF's time to fight in comfort zone is up. Say thanks to IAF's dishonesty towards Tejas.

But am not worried about the outcome against PAF. They are at their worst point to fight a war. And we have best Gov at Center and almost all over India now.

Hope dallaaa culture / tradition in IAF will end up after the war and they start supporting desi fighters.
 

bose

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jeee baaat !!
saheee pehechaanaa !!!

IAF's time to fight in comfort zone is up. Say thanks to IAF's dishonesty towards Tejas.

But am not worried about the outcome against PAF. They are at their worst point to fight a war. And we have best Gov at Center and almost all over India now.

Hope dallaaa culture / tradition in IAF will end up after the war and they start supporting desi fighters.
Although Off topic:

If Pakistanis find them selves in black list of FATF in another two weeks time, they will surely try sometime big again in the line of Phulwama and there will be a even stronger response from India what we have seen... This cycle will go on for sometime until we have a decisive action on them.

IAF will prevail over them no doubt about it but it will be not a quick and easy as we want ... See what IA is doing to to their PA morale in LoC ...

Also what happened to the Pakistani Navy they just simply vanished when IN positioned themselves for the action ...
 

vampyrbladez

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Thanks for correcting me ...

I may be wrong but I have a bad feeling that something big is coming up in next 2 to 3 years before end of Modi current tenure ... waiting for another 10 years to see good times will be too late...

The current defense budget is not adequate to address the IAF needs. My believe is there have to be big a increase of budget for armed forces ...

Indian Navy is in good shape v/s PN and with new induction in another 2 years it will be better what it is today and they have a clear road map...

Indian Army has severe shortfall in Ammunition [ Anti Tank missiles, Artillery, Tanks, etc] but new addition hardware coming up quickly in emergency basis... In another 2 years it will be much much better position ...

My concern is IAF with depleting squadron ... it seems they do not have proper roadmap nor government is serious ...

If there is a shortage of money for IAF ... government should appeal to citizens ... we all will come forward in whatever way we can ... we can also utilize the massive amount of gold stored in the temples ...
1) IAF talking about MMRCA 2.0 is smokescreen for Rafale deal of no.s 36 to be purchased. If the trials are not accelerated, it will drag on. Expect them to announce a deal in 2020 for 36 new Rafale jets.

“I would not be surprised,” said Ola Rignell. But he noted that the additional 36 jets will not fulfill the IAF’s requirement.

“The original 36 Rafale was bought when the IAF needed 126 MMRCA. Now there is an RFI (Request for Information) for 114 aircraft. Additional 36 Rafale would still not fulfill what the IAF actually not just wants but needs,” he said.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/thepri...ll-tech-transfer-local-production/298778/amp/

This is from last year, roughly around the same time.

Speaking further he said that the current tender will not take as much time as the previous MMRCA, as IAF plans to test only those systems which were not part of the aircraft that were put into trials previously.
https://idrw.org/mmrca-2-0-trials-will-be-short-iaf-chief/

2) Su 30 MKI is the backbone of the IAF for a true multirole capability. It has to number ~ 300 for sufficient manning on both fronts. Due to cancellation of Jaguar engine deal, up to 40 more MKI could be ordered in addition to the 12 attrition ones.

“One plan is to order more Su-30 MKIs to replace those fighters that would be grounded. As far as role is concerned, one Sukhoi can play the same role as two Jaguars,” the source said.
https://theprint.in/defence/iaf-set...could-buy-more-su-30-mkis-instead/278687/amp/

As per the report, back in February HAL had made this offer to supply 40 additional jets which is now being seriously considered by both the IAF and the government.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/swarajyamag.com/amp/story/insta%2Findian-air-force-very-likely-to-order-40-more-sukhoi-su-30-mki-jets-from-hal-as-jaguar-engine-upgrade-plan-dies

IAF had initially planned to retire 40 of its 120 Jaguars by the mid 2020s and upgrade the engines of the remaining 80 jets to increase their life by 10 years.
3) Tejas MK1A is the salvation for IAF's declining fleet numbers. The original estimate of 50,000 cr has been reduced to 45,000 cr for the 83 LCA Mark 1A.

"The cost committee of the Defence Ministry has determined the cost of the 83 LCA Mark 1A aircraft around Rs 45,000 crore and the Indian Air Force is now expected to place orders for these planes in the next few weeks," senior defence sources told ANI.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/m.econ...-83-lca-fighters/amp_articleshow/71012032.cms
 
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Flying Dagger

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Although Off topic:

If Pakistanis find them selves in black list of FATF in another two weeks time, they will surely try sometime big again in the line of Phulwama and there will be a even stronger response from India what we have seen... This cycle will go on for sometime until we have a decisive action on them.

IAF will prevail over them no doubt about it but it will be not a quick and easy as we want ... See what IA is doing to to their PA morale in LoC ...

Also what happened to the Pakistani Navy they just simply vanished when IN positioned themselves for the action ...
I understand your concern my friend . Pakistan Airforce itself have nothing much to offer They are flying cheap Chinese knockoff mig 21 which keep falling . Their old Mirage III and V are as antique as our mig 21 and they also crash

100-120 JF 17 and 70+ F 16 a few upgraded ones. That's their entire airforce.

IAF is undertrained due to unavailability of trainer aircrafts or say we have shortage of pilots. Apart from that I don't think there is anything to concern about. Even your plan won't get us anything before 2030 around.

That's why IAF bought Rafale off the shelf to mitigate the risk . All jets are on upgrade spree. Sukhoi too will get new weapons. We are buying 34 UPG Mig 29 these will address all the concern or shortfall we have.

But yes if we had say 100 mig 29 / mirage or Tejas it would have given us better chances patrolling the airspace and to intercept any misadventure by PAF giving them a big blow.
 

IndianHawk

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My concern is IAF with depleting squadron ... it seems they do not have proper roadmap nor government is serious ...
Squadron number is not the only measures. Look at the capabilities. One su30mki can cover more combat radius than 3 mig21 and can carry payload equal to 4 mig 21. And we have 300. Same for rafale . Each rafale is equivalent to 2-3 mig27 in payload.

Even lca is equivalent to 2 mig21.

Over that previously all aircrafts had only one role to play. Now all iaf aircraft barring mig21 and jaguar are multirole and can perform all missions.

On top of that there is technological leap taken by new ground radar networks with aesa based ground radars coming up fast.

Than meteor / Astra and sfdr /derby ER development.

Add lca aesa and ew and indegenios Avionics and also add cutting edge weaponry like bramhos / scalp / spice etc.

Now add s400 / akash / akash Ng / akash 1s/ barak / nasam and add BMD systems.

Add more phalcons and more netra AWACS.

Take a comprehensive picture and you would see a formidable airforce.

30 squadron of modern multirole birds with aesa , top class missiles, ew and jammers and supported by extensive Sam systems and ground radar networks is far more capable than 60-80 squadron of mig21/23/27.

With indegenios aesa and astra + ew will will be able to upgrade entire iaf fleet at cheap while porky will bankrupt themselves chasing foreign equipment.
 

AmoghaVarsha

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The unfortunate fact though, is that India simply does not have the funds to buy 114 jets of the ilk that are competing here (Rafale, Typhoon, US planes...ignore Russians).

With the required licensed production, the cost to manufacture will undoubtedly be considerably higher than off the shelf buy. Yes, money goes back into the system that way, but still upfront cost takes it's toll on capital expenditure.

Say Rafale or Typhoon wins this competition. The cost of a deal will be in excess of $30-35 billion because of the licensed production clause. We do not have this kind of money to spare. After 36 Rafales IGA and S-400, we are spent. The appetite for large deals is not there for the next 5-6 years at least, shorter if any major rightsizing happens on the fronts that are bloated sinkholes for expenditure (Army).

The very fact that even an Acceptance of Necessity (AON) for the 114 jets has not been issued yet (let alone RFI and RFP) shows this competition for what it really is for the moment - a time-pass.

We are in no position to sign this deal before 2025. Meaning first squadrons cannot be formed before 2030. So relax.

Only real way to fill the numbers with some high-end jets in meantime is with either/or:

1) Continue to place additional off the shelf orders for Rafales in 36 batch increments. Which will undoubtedly come with increasing locally produced content as DRAL infra is in place.

2) Forego the local production in its entirety and just sign off on a G2G for 114 jets. That should knock off a significant chunk of the upfront cost.

No matter what they say now, they will have to deal with these realities sooner or later. Just like how the reality manifested itself when it became apparent we were in no position to sign for 126 Rafales with licensed production.
This will be likely decided in 2021 only and only part payment needs to be done.

If L1 is Rafale, then no new fighter will arrive till this one is finished. So we have time to arrange the finances.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk
 

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https://translate.google.com/transl...piste-d-envol-en-inde-829952.html&prev=search

Paris and New Delhi discuss a private contract for the sale of at least 36 Rafale, which will be manufactured in India.

While the first Rafale will be delivered on Tuesday to the Indian Air Force, the Dassault Aviation fighter plane is again on the runway in India. However, the signing of a contract is still premature and distant (late 2020, early 2021). What is new, however, is the resumption of discussions between France and India on the one hand, and those between New Delhi and Dassault Aviation for the sale of at least 36 Rafale in the context of a procedure over the counter, according to several concordant sources. Some even evoke a hundred devices.

Anyway, these Rafales would this time be made in India in accordance with the policy of the "Make in India" launched by the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, when he came to power in 2014. The discussions between France and India are intense and regular after a year in 2018 when practically nothing happened in the Indian elections, which ultimately saw the easy victory of Narendra Modi, a member of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya party. Janata party (BJP), and the violent controversy launched by the Congress Party on the Rafale contract (36 aircraft) signed in September 2016 after a year and a half of negotiations following the announcement to buy the plane from French fight in April 2015 Narendra Modi in Paris.

An announcement early January?

It was the meeting at the end of August between Emmanuel Macron and Narendra Modi that helped to boost the discussions on a new acquisition of the Rafale by the Indian Air Force, which would like at least four squadrons (16-18 aircraft per squadron ) additional Rafale. The goal is an official announcement of an upcoming Rafale order by Narendra Modi during the visit of Emmanuel Macron, invited next January by the Prime Minister to India for one of the three Indian national holidays, the day of the Republic Day which takes place on January 26th.

Such an announcement would align the Indian administration with the political will of New Delhi. Negotiators then negotiate and then concretize a contract. This OTC operation, however, requires an operational emergency acquisition procedure, which the "funny war" with Pakistan could legitimize. This would avoid going through a very long bidding process, which might not succeed like many others in India. The Indian Air Force has a real operational need. And finally taking the handle of the Rafale could give him even more weight to accelerate the discussions ...
 

BON PLAN

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https://translate.google.com/transl...piste-d-envol-en-inde-829952.html&prev=search

Paris and New Delhi discuss a private contract for the sale of at least 36 Rafale, which will be manufactured in India.

While the first Rafale will be delivered on Tuesday to the Indian Air Force, the Dassault Aviation fighter plane is again on the runway in India. However, the signing of a contract is still premature and distant (late 2020, early 2021). What is new, however, is the resumption of discussions between France and India on the one hand, and those between New Delhi and Dassault Aviation for the sale of at least 36 Rafale in the context of a procedure over the counter, according to several concordant sources. Some even evoke a hundred devices.

Anyway, these Rafales would this time be made in India in accordance with the policy of the "Make in India" launched by the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, when he came to power in 2014. The discussions between France and India are intense and regular after a year in 2018 when practically nothing happened in the Indian elections, which ultimately saw the easy victory of Narendra Modi, a member of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya party. Janata party (BJP), and the violent controversy launched by the Congress Party on the Rafale contract (36 aircraft) signed in September 2016 after a year and a half of negotiations following the announcement to buy the plane from French fight in April 2015 Narendra Modi in Paris.

An announcement early January?

It was the meeting at the end of August between Emmanuel Macron and Narendra Modi that helped to boost the discussions on a new acquisition of the Rafale by the Indian Air Force, which would like at least four squadrons (16-18 aircraft per squadron ) additional Rafale. The goal is an official announcement of an upcoming Rafale order by Narendra Modi during the visit of Emmanuel Macron, invited next January by the Prime Minister to India for one of the three Indian national holidays, the day of the Republic Day which takes place on January 26th.

Such an announcement would align the Indian administration with the political will of New Delhi. Negotiators then negotiate and then concretize a contract. This OTC operation, however, requires an operational emergency acquisition procedure, which the "funny war" with Pakistan could legitimize. This would avoid going through a very long bidding process, which might not succeed like many others in India. The Indian Air Force has a real operational need. And finally taking the handle of the Rafale could give him even more weight to accelerate the discussions ...
 

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