@Kunal Biswas @smestarz ,
@sgarg,
@ersakthivel
Rafale fighter jet deal not yet finalised: Parrikar
13 Mar 2015, 15:36
Few important points here,
a) The words of RM are in a way clear to say that it will take time, and that means the cost is still an issue. so only contracts that are signed are the ones between Team Dassault and its indian contractors (HAL, etc etc) but these come into effect IF AND ONLY IF GoI signs the deal. Going by this ifs another few months before something is going to come, as I understand RM is only waiting for good news from Tejas II once that is done, India gets the ideal replacement for MiG-21 (single engine plane for single engine plane)
b) No one is above the Parliament but all the statements given by IAF chief do suggest that their whims have to be fulfilled. "There is no plan B"
As per me IAF (and here i mean top brass who run it) clearly have no vision of future, or are they developing any strategies or doctrines based on the weapons they have. If they had, we would not be getting comments like plan B. This is the same air force that took on F-86 Sabre jets with Folland Gnats. And now they are scared even if IAF has Su-30 MKI and the best that PAF is F-16?
c) There is no friendship here with French, its all business and they have shown it. They had assured to help on Kaveri after we signed the contract with Rafale, but now we have other suitors who want to help on Kaveri.
d) The project cost here mentioned is Rs 1,34,000 crores which comes to US$ 21-22 billion at the present rate. Thus only the cost of planes is about US$ 10 billion (Dassault CEO said the cost of planes is same and lets believe him here) but the other cost of setting up a line, tooling and maybe weapons, will cost another 12 billion, As per me this number will further rise, but lets just fix it at US$ 22 billion then the cost per plane for 126 planes comes to US$ 175 million a plane (US$ 75 million per plane and US$ 95 million average per plane of other costs)
If we order the options 63 then it would be (US$ 75 million per plane and US$ 63 million per plane) since the option is taken it would be at earlier agreed price of US$ 75 million but the average of cost of lines etc etc now is averaged over 189 planes reducing it to 63 million per plane)
Thus we spend about US$ 138 - 175 million per plane, and all we get is to learn only about using tools in efficient way. We are not going to get the ToT for RBE-2AA, or M-88 engine (we shall only be assembling kits) or SPECTRA. So why should we pay such a high price for this, and that too for a plane whose lines depend on India.
France wanted to reduce the nos, and so they are eager to find a customer as it has commitment to buy 11 planes a year, and now want only 4 planes a year, and that desperation did cause it to SELL AND FINANCE the planes for Egypt, a country whose economy is in ruins,
Dassault seems does not seem to be working on any new plane, as I doubt France can afford any new system to buy. Thus now they will be upgrading Rafale more avionically than structurally, as structural upgradation will cost them more and France cannot afford that, and hence most of the focus now will be develop the Radar, Avionics and PODS for Rafale. THERE IS NO PLAN B HERE.
The only other project seems to be UCAV nEUROn. but I doubt it it has many new buyers thought it could be potential.