114 MRFA + 26 MRCBF (18SS + 8TS) = 140 in all
SS - Single Seater
TS - Twin Seater
AF- Air Force
Rafale variants
B AF TS
C AF SS
M Naval SS
F-18 variants
E Naval SS
F Naval TS
Firstly, the Rafale is not an optimum buy for the MRCBF requirement as it stands today. Rafale does not have a naval twin seater so while 18 single seat Rafale M can be procured, for the twin seat variant IN will have to opt for AF Rafale B. These 8 twin seat trainers can never operate from a carrier deck since they are primarily air force fighters and have not been navalised- no tail hook , strong undercarriage to deal with heavy sink rates etc. They will be operating from shore based/land based air fields.
The Boeing F/A-18 E/F is a much better fit with both single and twin seat naval versions. It will additionally have engine commonality with Mk2, AMCA Mk1 & TEDBF in the GE F414.
Also, don't think the Rafale M can be converted into to a Rafale C at all- TEDBF or not the naval Rafale M (SS) if bought under MRCBF will spend their entire life on INS Vikrant with IN only. Any Rafale B IN can spare in future will be lapped up by IAF. The Rafale M will not be as performant for AF. The F-18 OTOH has not found favour with IAF at all (did not make the MMRCA down select).
So if IN goes for F-18, all 26 will serve with IN for 40 years until replaced by TEDBF (which will first replace the 29Ks on Vikramaditya, before gracing the deck of Vikrant). There will be better fleet utilization since all planes can operate from the flight deck. It will give us access to cheaper weapons from Uncle Sam. But a big con is dependence on Uncle Sam & sanctions.
If IN goes for Rafale, 18 will serve their full life with IN while 8 can be transferred to the IAF. Of the 26 procured only 18 will be fit for carrier ops. French weapons are much costlier than American.
None of the above are optimal but F-18 makes more sense to me because they satisfy INs requirements better. Will see Vikrant through the next 40 years before TEDBF starts operating from them.
I guess
I would like to raise a queriy on the handicap suffered by the Rafale M due to lack of a twin seater trainer varient.
How do French Navy pilots manage to fly the Rafale M off French Aircraft Carriers.
Will not their training suffer due to this lacunae.
And if French Navy pilots can confidently fly the Rafale M after undergoing training on the French Air Force dual seat Rafale trainer aircraft, why can't Indian Navy pilots do the same.
But most people would agree that United States combat aircraft are technologically advanced and are good fighters.
There is little doubt that the Super Hornet is a fine aircraft.
The main problem is the strings that come attached to sale of most US weapons.
Intrusive user verification, on site inspection, high chances of sanctions being imposed by US Congress etc.
Almost an crown of thorns.
Let the Americans supply us weapons on terms similar to the Russians and the French. Even allowing us to do our jugaad on the weapon system if needed. I believe we have modified Russian and French combat aircraft without too many problems(after getting the green light I guess).
Anyway an political decision may be taken to acquire the SH-18.Cant rule it out. But establishing maintainance infrastructure for the SH-18 will add to costs. Maintenance infrastructure for the Rafale aircraft already exists in the country.
Let's see what happens.