IR presenting a picture of reality & a feasible way ahead:
How close and how far! Is it metallurgy or overall design optimisation! What’s lacking? Appreciate
@Indrani1_Roy throw some light for us.
Oh. Entering this with much reluctance. As I have said before, I feel completely technically unqualified to say what we need to do get going on Kaveri-deriavatives going. The following page scratches the surface of technical issues.
First thing, I do want to say: aam jingoes don't appreciate the complexity of modern low bypass turbofan (LBTF) engine. It is not a stretch to say that it is more difficult than rocket engines. Just compare the number of rocket vs LBTF engines designed in the last 3 decades.
Many people think that privatization is the panacea. But that doesn't solve this riddle. Bharat Forge has tried to build a 4kN engine for the past 5 years. Mahindra tried to turn around GippsAero by just stretching the GA-8 by a mtr. Did not work. Both are excellent companies!
The "free-market is the solution to everything" junta also fail in the basic understanding of this business: But
an LBTF engine by itself is financially unviable. But first, let me give you an example where it can work.
GoI says that it will
mandate all domestic operators to buy a certain percentage of their fleet as the RTA. That leads to say a guaranteed orders of say 200 aircraft. It opens up a competition to dev such an aircraft where two top contenders split the orders in a 60:40 ratio.
Development cost will be around ~$500 M. Each aircraft costs about $30M. So, that's business worth $1.8B & $1.2B respectively. Players might come forward.
Now, let's take a 110 kN engine. Such an engine will cost $10 million. Let's say India will place an order for 1000 engines. That's $10 billion. The development cost of such an engine is a few times that!!! So why will a private sector company come forward?
Modern LBTF DnD is not in the ambit of large corporations, but of large countries. For example,
whole of EU is pitching together to field a next gen engine. And they already have significant know-how, know-why and infra. Are the Europeans incapable?!! Surely not.
Let me ask this question in another way: If China is offered complete knowhow and know-why of building a state of the art
130 kN engine for $50B dollars, do you think China will take it? Albeit they would. They have already spend more than that.
The tuth is world class LBTF requires world classe infrastructure, know-how and know-why which takes decades and 10s-100s of billions in investment. The GOI doesn't have the appetite to buy that strategic independence. It doesn't buy any votes 5 years from now!
So, then is there no way for us. I want to believe there is. But I have several questions. Are we as a nation serious enough? Are we realistic enough? Are we patient enough? Are we structured enough? Are we disciplined enough? Have we learned enough (through Kaveri)?
I seek forgiveness for giving advise way outside my depth. But these are my observations. The aero development in our country is fractured. HAL, GTRE, ADA, NAL & private sector don't even come under the same ministry! How are we going to foot the bill for an LBTF?
We need to
unite as a nation. We need a 'Sarabhai' who is knowledgeable, rational and is provided complete autonomy (reports directly to the PM). All players have to be asked hard questions &
the country must understand that a world class engine in 10 years is not possible.
To GTRE we must ask: What is the basis for confidence in building a greater than >9:1 thrust engine in 10 years? Kaveri has been flight tested for a sum total of few hours?! IAF: Don't ask for an engine that US/EU/Russia can produce today. It's not possible.
The goal would be to
develop a core 3 engines around the same core (for maximum ROI, learning and minimizing risk) a.
60kN High bypass ratio (HBPR) engine b.
35kN Low bypass non after burning (LBPR) engine c.
50kN Low bypass after burning (LBPR-AB) engine.
Ask all the design houses to consolidate around these engines.
HBPR goes for RTA. LBPR goes for AJTs and drones. 1xLBPR-AB goes for LIFT, 2xLBPR-AB goes for adapted LCA Mk3.
AMCA has to be based on foreign engines till the second generation of engines come by.
By the way,
this is the way Japan took. F3 was their first engine (roughly equivalent to our HTFE) used in AJTs. XF-5 is their LBPR-AB equivalent. 2 of these powered the 5th-gen X-2 prototype. One can imagine an F5-IIe class LIFT/fighter powered by a single XF-5.
The F7 is their HBPR which powers their Kawasaki P-1 aircraft. The next step is the XF9 two of which will power their NG F-X fighter. End of thread.