Indian Economy: News and Discussion

DingDong

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The way it is going on right now it's only going to get worse from now. And being in IT industry myself this is painful as well as scary. Situation is really getting worse and I don't see any resolution to Ukraine war in next 2 years at least. Also de-dollarization is just increasing problems for IT industry to infinity. If USD prices goes down which many are predicting will start from next year. That will be real massacre for IT employees.
The knowledge industry resets itself periodically, this is a 10-year cycle. This short period of resizing will quickly be followed by a period of high job growth. Nothing extraordinary.
 

omaebakabaka

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The knowledge industry resets itself periodically, this is a 10-year cycle. This short period of resizing will quickly be followed by a period of high job growth. Nothing extraordinary.
I doubt that it is as simple as this with central banks printing money left and right causing all sorts of inflation in every sector from food to high end to basic transportation. World is indeed in a transition phase with end not very clear but chaos is around and how controlled that would be is the unknown.

One look at stock markets around the world should tell you where all printed money is ending up. IT job market is least of the concern. Since world economy is centered around US economy with USD as peg, there is no easy solution.....India is doing the right thing balancing with Russia in relations. IT companies and other retail know very well in US that inflated profits they are putting out are hardly anything to smile about.
 

omaebakabaka

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The way it is going on right now it's only going to get worse from now. And being in IT industry myself this is painful as well as scary. Situation is really getting worse and I don't see any resolution to Ukraine war in next 2 years at least. Also de-dollarization is just increasing problems for IT industry to infinity. If USD prices goes down which many are predicting will start from next year. That will be real massacre for IT employees.
You are not wrong, Indian IT net product porfolio competetive edge is almost nothing, so hard times indeed with respect to odds but it all depends on USD position and how its foundations get shaken.
 

DingDong

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You are not wrong, Indian IT net product porfolio competetive edge is almost nothing, so hard times indeed with respect to odds but it all depends on USD position and how its foundations get shaken.
The large IT companies over-hired to create an artificial scarcity. This scarcity was created to make the hiring difficult and costly for the startups and the SMES (considered as competitors by the large businesses). Once the opportune moment arrived the excess human resource got dumped on the streets.

The bad news for these "fired" tech professionals is that it will be difficult for them to get hired again because of the way in which the large companies train and use their developers and which is quite different and useless from the smaller businesses' perspective.
 

MuffleParch

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Who is going to win Tesla? In the order of probability: Tamilnadu, Gujrat, Maharastra?

1712234031566.png
 

jai jaganath

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The way it is going on right now it's only going to get worse from now. And being in IT industry myself this is painful as well as scary. Situation is really getting worse and I don't see any resolution to Ukraine war in next 2 years at least. Also de-dollarization is just increasing problems for IT industry to infinity. If USD prices goes down which many are predicting will start from next year. That will be real massacre for IT employees.
Yes in my college which has good placement record facing very difficult to get placements
And CSE grads are literally struggling like anything to get placed just imagine the stress over EXTC brach grads
If we ask them what to learn they are just like
Ab kuch Kam nahi aa raha jitna bhi sikhe hai un sab se job nahi lag Rahi market situation bahut bura hai

Infact thinking instead of focusing on placement focus on MBA examinations par waha bhi halat kharab chal rahe hai
 

omaebakabaka

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The large IT companies over-hired to create an artificial scarcity. This scarcity was created to make the hiring difficult and costly for the startups and the SMES (considered as competitors by the large businesses). Once the opportune moment arrived the excess human resource got dumped on the streets.

The bad news for these "fired" tech professionals is that it will be difficult for them to get hired again because of the way in which the large companies train and use their developers and which is quite different and useless from the smaller businesses' perspective.
Add that to emerging AI that is somewhat useful, some service jobs may not exist in future....AI is threat to IT companies as we know in India...... but as usual our idiotic IT consulting companies have no stake or position other than cheap labor. Ones in research side will have minimal impact.
 

DingDong

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Add that to emerging AI that is somewhat useful, some service jobs may not exist in future....AI is threat to IT companies as we know in India...... but as usual our idiotic IT consulting companies have no stake or position other than cheap labor. Ones in research side will have minimal impact.
AI (particularly the large language model) is over-hyped. It still works on the principle of garbage-in-garbage-out. Don't fall prey to the marketing gimmick.

The worst effected will be the copywriters, the artists and the content creators, however the people will soon start to distinguish the original work from the generated content.

It will not have any substantial impact on the software development.
 

Haldilal

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Ya'll Nibbiars

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omaebakabaka

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AI (particularly the large language model) is over-hyped. It still works on the principle of garbage-in-garbage-out. Don't fall prey to the marketing gimmick.

The worst effected will be the copywriters, the artists and the content creators, however the people will soon start to distinguish the original work from the generated content.

It will not have any substantial impact on the software development.
You are off....its got 100 times more productivity when you ask copilot now for instance I asked it to write a spark streaming thread for a routine to ingest a http url response and parse it into a certain format, it did a pretty good job that is better than a lot of programmers that you run into. This is a just infancy, when it has entire syntax trees and optimization trees to learn from, you can only imagine what it can generate when you build that contextual intelligence. Totally off...potential is huge if processes around IT projects are made suitable to this new AI capabilities. An entry guy will take days to even get to that level of understanding an api and majority of them won't even get it considering the quality you into in IT shops.

Contextual intelligence is what LLM's provide....more specifically extension into verticals of special domains. Easy to train than natural languages as rules are bounded and its already done through syntax today via optimization trees but in a hard bound context.
 

DingDong

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You are off....its got 100 times more productivity when you ask copilot now for instance I asked it to write a spark streaming thread for a routine to ingest a http url response and parse it into a certain format, it did a pretty good job that is better than a lot of programmers that you run into. This is a just infancy, when it has entire syntax trees and optimization trees to learn from, you can only imagine what it can generate when you build that contextual intelligence. Totally off...potential is huge if processes around IT projects are made suitable to this new AI capabilities. An entry guy will take days to even get to that level of understanding an api and majority of them won't even get it considering the quality you into in IT shops.

Contextual intelligence is what LLM's provide....more specifically extension into verticals of special domains. Easy to train than natural languages as rules are bounded and its already done through syntax today via optimization trees but in a hard bound context.
The AI provides what is already available in the public domain, like I said, garbage-in-garbage-out. The AI has got absolutely no way to know or test whether a particular piece of code works or not, that is ultimately up to the developer to decide. It just relies on the rating system of the website from where the information was originally captured.

Some companies might love the AI because it does things for free what some entry level developers do by clip-paste and for lot of money, however it has got it's limitations. Most of the complex and valuable pieces of code are not available for these AI tools to train on.

The tools like ChatGPT are to the developers what Excel is to the accountants. It is useful, it is not going to replace the human beings in the long run.
 
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omaebakabaka

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The AI provides what is already available in the public domain, like I said, garbage-in-garbage-out. The AI has got absolutely no way to know or test whether a particular piece of code works or not, that is ultimately up to the developer to decide. It just relies on the rating system of the website from where the information was originally captured.

Some companies might love the AI because it does things for free what some entry level developers do by clip-paste and for lot of money, however it has got it's limitations. Most of the complex and valuable pieces of code are not available for these AI tools to train on.

The tools like ChatGPT are to the developers what Excel is to the accountants. It is useful, it is not going to replace the human beings in the long run.
No idea what your point is, it can generate pretty complete templates that takes days for programmer in seconds.....there is nothing subjective about this. AI can be trained on millions/billions of lines of open source code of high quality like OS, full language specs, web server, app servers, databases and so on. This itself puts number of programmers required at risk going forward, not to mention translations and so on. Testing is the easy one with test cases, test case is always deterministic in general....not a tough problem at all. Good programming dictates that you provide specific input and output is known when you write code....these are generally not stoachastic in nature

AI already cleared medical and law exams, even if there is some made up PR stunt behind the scenes, there is no reason to doubt. AI was always a thought with solid math concepts like probability, stats and other formal fields behind it but it was computing that was limitation. Now that progress is at levels to make it useful not withstanding the useless side of it that is catching hype.
 
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spacemarine2023

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36% students from latest batch at IIT Bombay fail to get placed

this is another misinformation…

IIT Bombay offers a variety of non-technical courses in fields such as management, humanities, social sciences, and entrepreneurship. Some examples include courses in business management, economics, psychology, sociology, communication skills, and creative writing.

IIT is known for Engineering courses where placement is rock solid as always, even companies coming for IIT MBA students prefer to take Engg ones.

Dont fall for these kind of crap news, most of Humanities and Social
science has no market value for corporations… the placement is always like this fot non tech courses in all IITs
 

Crazywithmath

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this is another misinformation…



IIT Bombay offers a variety of non-technical courses in fields such as management, humanities, social sciences, and entrepreneurship. Some examples include courses in business management, economics, psychology, sociology, communication skills, and creative writing.



IIT is known for Engineering courses where placement is rock solid as always, even companies coming for IIT MBA students prefer to take Engg ones.



Dont fall for these kind of crap news, most of Humanities and Social

science has no market value for corporations… the placement is always like this fot non tech courses in all IITs
 

another_armchair

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AI after scanning through millions of lines of open source code cannot build a product and release it under a commercial license only if the 'source' itself has been released under GPL in the past.

Last time, SAP tried to play cheeky, it got sued by Oracle. They were lucky to get away with a charge of just $1.3 billion in the copyright case.

SAP being touted as the best after 'sliced bread'(ya ya.. borrowing this one) still needs a human consultant, and a team of developers to piece the 'sandwich' together.

Back in 2014, there was a big churn in this consulting company.. name starts with 'A' ... people who can't 'agile' need to pack up and leave... 'agile' was the buzzword from the loo to the cafeteria. Ab 'agile' ka bhosada tak nahi sunaai deta.

There are companies that have survived the roughest of churns and adapted. AI-ML will create redundancy in some roles, create new ones too.

Developers have been copy/pasting code from various sources for decades. There is only so much improvisation you can do to boilerplate code unless you are in npm hell that ends up importing 100's of modules to compare two numbers. Hopefully AI+ML can help eliminate such hellish redundancies from code repos.
 

omaebakabaka

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AI after scanning through millions of lines of open source code cannot build a product and release it under a commercial license only if the 'source' itself has been released under GPL in the past.

Last time, SAP tried to play cheeky, it got sued by Oracle. They were lucky to get away with a charge of just $1.3 billion in the copyright case.

SAP being touted as the best after 'sliced bread'(ya ya.. borrowing this one) still needs a human consultant, and a team of developers to piece the 'sandwich' together.

Back in 2014, there was a big churn in this consulting company.. name starts with 'A' ... people who can't 'agile' need to pack up and leave... 'agile' was the buzzword from the loo to the cafeteria. Ab 'agile' ka bhosada tak nahi sunaai deta.

There are companies that have survived the roughest of churns and adapted. AI-ML will create redundancy in some roles, create new ones too.

Developers have been copy/pasting code from various sources for decades. There is only so much improvisation you can do to boilerplate code unless you are in npm hell that ends up importing 100's of modules to compare two numbers. Hopefully AI+ML can help eliminate such hellish redundancies from code repos.
Thats a policy and regulation aspect not a tech limitation, for a country like China none of that matters. Generating templates of projects with 70% of code filled in with contextual intelligence is a lot more productive than if humans have to do.....regardless its here to stay. Those who don't or can't employ it will stay behind. Those that go with excess regulations are also going to have bitter reality slapped into their faces.

Most useful solutions operate in bounded context scenarios in real world unlike open ended questions.
 

another_armchair

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Thats a policy and regulation aspect not a tech limitation, for a country like China none of that matters. Generating templates of projects with 70% of code filled in with contextual intelligence is a lot more productive than if humans have to do.....regardless its here to stay. Those who don't or can't employ it will stay behind. Those that go with excess regulations are also going to have bitter reality slapped into their faces.
We are past the stage of 'Templates of projects'. Most of them are already templated/prototyped, done and dusted requiring some customization here and there.

Imagine if a mid sized high end restaurant discarded its existing IT solution and switched to SAP from POS to MM, it should be a wake up call for many.
 

omaebakabaka

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We are past the stage of 'Templates of projects'. Most of them are already templated, done and dusted requiring some customization here and there.
Templating not in that context but from domain intelligence point of view based on learning that domain. Intellect now is different from being tool smart. It has large memory chains and living neural networks behind it to be able to do that and can do that in many different ways mimicking lot of things that people did in that domain. Sometimes you get surprized the way code is getting generated....

Process is where it falls apart, as you said new redundant roles will be created to manage AI and so on replacing old one. It may not be 1:1 but that depends, engineering may actually see reduction and so are probably other more regimental disciplines.
 

DingDong

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No idea what your point is, it can generate pretty complete templates that takes days for programmer in seconds.....there is nothing subjective about this. AI can be trained on millions/billions of lines of open source code of high quality like OS, full language specs, web server, app servers, databases and so on. This itself puts number of programmers required at risk going forward, not to mention translations and so on. Testing is the easy one with test cases, test case is always deterministic in general....not a tough problem at all. Good programming dictates that you provide specific input and output is known when you write code....these are generally not stoachastic in nature

AI already cleared medical and law exams, even if there is some made up PR stunt behind the scenes, there is no reason to doubt. AI was always a thought with solid math concepts like probability, stats and other formal fields behind it but it was computing that was limitation. Now that progress is at levels to make it useful not withstanding the useless side of it that is catching hype.
One of the consequences of the Halting Problem is that no computer program can analyze the behavior of another computer program.

For example, an anti-virus can detect only those malwares/security-threats whose signature are already present in it's current database (hence the periodic updates). Guess who builds those signatures? Us Humans.

Similarly, Garbage Collector works only in particular scenarios (out of scope variable/object). It doesn't work in scenarios like file-system handling, database connection management etc.

AI might be whatever, but it is still a computer program. It is restricted by the limitations of the current models of computation.

Most of the boilerplate code generated by the AI is already available in the public domain. AI is just a fancy semantic search engine that provides better search results compared to the traditional syntax-based search engines like the Google. It cannot invent a solution for an entirely new problem.

I am not challenging the rise of AI as a disruptor, I am challenging the notion that the AI will replace the human. It cannot because it can only simulate the real intelligence. There is a difference between simulation and emulation.

Just like the introduction of the cellular phones marked an end of the pay-phone booths (if you are old enough, you will know), rise of the AI will temporarily make certain existing business processes and roles redundant. However, in the long term it will create vast number of new opportunities and applications.
 

omaebakabaka

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One of the consequences of the Halting Problem is that no computer program can analyze the behavior of another computer program.

For example, an anti-virus can detect only those malwares/security-threats whose signature are already present in it's current database (hence the periodic updates). Guess who builds those signatures? Us Humans.

Similarly, Garbage Collector works only in particular scenarios (out of scope variable/object). It doesn't work in scenarios like file-system handling, database connection management etc.

AI might be whatever, but it is still a computer program. It is restricted by the limitations of the current models of computation.

Most of the boilerplate code generated by the AI is already available in the public domain. AI is just a fancy semantic search engine that provides better search results compared to the traditional syntax-based search engines like the Google. It cannot invent a solution for an entirely new problem.

I am not challenging the rise of AI as a disruptor, I am challenging the notion that the AI will replace the human. It cannot because it can only simulate the real intelligence. There is a difference between simulation and emulation.

Just like the introduction of the cellular phones marked an end of the pay-phone booths (if you are old enough, you will know), rise of the AI will temporarily make certain existing business processes and roles redundant. However, in the long term it will create vast number of new opportunities and applications.
what? where is it available where you can ask in natural language and it will write a program for you with very acceptable pattern and efficiency and not just simple case but very intricate in almost any language? This is based on math concepts trained on large amounts of data. What you mentioned as not doables are future areas in the near future where AI can certainly be in a position to identify virus or at the least flag out of pattern signals based on continuous on job learning.
Point is not whether or not it solves every conceivable problem which it can't but point is that it has the potential to replace lot of average talent that can be replaced easily. This is a no brainer....reduction of number of dba's, network admins, server admins, programmers and so on are all AI can impact....anyone that underestiamtes this has another thing coming. This shit is real, companies have deep pockets and they can memorize lot of shit and exploit that memory just like human but billion times better.

They can't replace a human but they can replace routine jobs that humans can do over time if society removes or adapts to certain constraints. I remember people say the same thing when iphone did not come with stylus and so on....

I am not the type to vouch for fads but math is real behind it and based and neural networks can in theory create that intelligence and these are not new concepts at all but current computing capabilities and deep pockets of state and private companies like microsoft may bring out the practical applications vs theorists in pure math or academic or people working in super computing and so on
 
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