Indian Economy: News and Discussion

[Spindrift]

Lol you need to read more about his past then.

I am well aware of his of past... and to that I say let bygones be bygones..

 

[captscooby81]

Most people here may find swarajya as a sanghi media and as govt boot licker .

That sounded like a communists as well as jihadis as well as congressis.
Is it bad? I think it is the only professional right wing newspaper of the level too some of the best there.
Only if they had their own documentary series.

 

[captscooby81]

Green shoots: Manufacturing PMI expands to 8-year high of 55.3 in January

In response to the jump in sales, factories hired new workers at the fastest rate in more than seven years

Reuters | Bangaluru Last Updated at February 3, 2020 10:45 IST

India's manufacturing activity expanded at its quickest pace in nearly eight years in January with robust growth in new orders and output, a private survey showed on Monday, suggesting the economy may be getting back on firmer footing.

In response to the jump in sales, factories hired new workers at the fastest rate in more than seven years.

If sustained, the improvement in business conditions could point to a gradual economic recovery in coming months, as forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll last month, after growth slowed to a more than six-year low in the July-September quarter.

The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index , compiled by IHS Markit, jumped to 55.3 last month from 52.7 in December. It was the highest reading since February 2012 and above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for the 30th straight month.

"The PMI results show that a notable rebound in demand boosted growth of sales, input buying, production and employment as firms focused on rebuilding their inventories and expanding their capacities in anticipation of further increases in new business," Pollyanna De Lima, principal economist at IHS Markit, said in a news release.

A new orders sub-index that tracks overall demand hit its highest level since December 2014 and output grew at its fastest pace in over seven and a half years, pushing manufacturers to hire at the strongest rate since August 2012.

Meanwhile, both input costs and output prices rose at a slower pace, indicating overall inflation may have eased after hitting a more than five year high of 7.35% in December, although probably not below the Reserve Bank of India's medium-term target of 4%.

That might keep the central bank, which cut its key interest rate by a cumulative 135 basis points last year, on the sidelines over the coming months.

"To complete the good news, there was also an uptick in business confidence as survey participants expect buoyant demand, new client wins, advertising and product diversification to boost output in the year ahead," added De Lima.


https://www.business-standard.com/a...r-high-of-55-3-in-january-120020300230_1.html

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Defence budget highlights...........

Defense budget is a big let down. What was the need to give 1.5 lakh crore exemption to Corporate. Had this 1.5 lakh Crore been provided only once in addition to regular budget, Country could have been secured a lot more. Additional 6 to 7 S 400 at 8 bn USD would have given pan India umbrella of protection. BJP is not at all serious about Defense the way it should have been. Please do not tell me that they are better than congress.

 

[ezsasa]

Defense budget is a big let down. What was the need to give 1.5 lakh crore exemption to Corporate. Had this 1.5 lakh Crore been provided only once in addition to regular budget, Country could have been secured a lot more. Additional 6 to 7 S 400 at 8 bn USD would have given pan India umbrella of protection. BJP is not at all serious about Defense the way it should have been. Please do not tell me that they are better than congress.

That is your opinion.

Please check think tank thread, I have posted contemporary defence budget spending on CAPEX of multiple countries excluding US&China. To me it did look like effective spending on CAPEX & pipeline is better in India than the countries listed in that post.

 

[Spindrift]

That is your opinion.

Please check think tank thread, I have posted contemporary defence budget spending on CAPEX of multiple countries excluding US&China. To me it did look like effective spending on CAPEX & pipeline is better in India than the countries listed in that post.

As far as my understanding goes the majority of the defence CAPEX goes into paying pensions and salaries rather than buying equipment. And if that is the case then how is this better?

 

[ezsasa]

@HariPrasad-1 this one......................

Conclusion : to me it looks indian defence capex is being spent far more effectively than the countries listed below, our budget has more bang for the buck and wider range of products. unless someone is able to provide more accurate information.
Canada, France, Germany, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia & Brazil.

Canada and France seem to follow 5 year plans for defence acquisitions.

Canada : View attachment 42289

France:
France have mentioned only what they want to acquire but not annual capex amount. their total defence spending till 2025 is gonna be 300 billion euro.

Among the weapons to be ordered next year are a Barracuda nuclear-powered attack submarine, three fleet auxiliary tankers and two aircraft fitted for gathering electronic intelligence. The tanker ships will be bought in cooperation with Italy.

Other orders include upgrades for 10 Mirage 2000D fighters; 125 firing posts for the MMP anti-tank missile; 60 Meteor long-range air-to-air missiles; and six patrol boats for overseas deployment.

Some €758 million will be set aside on research and development studies, a step toward a pledge to spend €1 billion on R&D annually. Some €4.2 billion will be spent on service support, mostly dedicated to aircraft maintenance.

A six-strong batch of Reaper drones is due to be delivered next year.

Brazil :

• Brazil's annual defence budget was set at USD27.5 billion in 2019, real growth of 2.1 percent year on year.
• However, its defence procurement allocation was just USD1.3 billion, more than USD1 billion less than 2012 in real terms.
• Despite rising total spending, funding for equipment purchases fell dramatically last year, and now accounts for a historic low of just 5 percent of total military expenditure.

Saudi : defence budget is around 50 billion $, capex is not available.

Indonesia : The Indonesian government of President Joko Widodo has proposed a 3 percent increase to the national budget for 2020, with defense earmarked for a boost of 16% percent in year-on-year nominal investment. The defense budget – currently receiving an outlay of IDR109.6 trillion ($7.68 billion) – is set to rise to IDR127.4 billion ($8.9 billion) under the government proposal and will equal 5 percent of total spending

Achieving the 1.5 percent of GDP benchmark is in line with Indonesia’s larger military reform goal of creating a force-of-scale capable of meeting the minimum response required to deal with a variety of strategic threats by 2024. This end-goal is referred to as the Minimum Essential Force modernization program. The MEF involves recruiting, retaining, housing, equipping, and training a force that is able to deploy the minimal assets necessary to conduct counterinsurgency operations, international peacekeeping missions, and natural disaster relief operations, as well as provide offshore and exclusive economic zone (EEZ) protection.

Germany :

The draft budget for 2020 envisages €44.9 billion for the defense ministry. That represents 1.37% of GDP. However, NATO has put out repeated calls for defense spending to rise to 2% GDP from member nations' economies. Germany's percentage still remains low compared with other, often much smaller and poorer nations such as Lithuania. In 2019, Germany's defense budget was just 1.2% of GDP.
The projects at risk

In her first budget speech in Parliament as defense minister, Kramp-Karrenbauer said that soldiers who "risked life and limb" deserved the "best equipment." But projects that would not be affordable included:

• Night vision goggles;
• a successor to the Tornado fighter jet;
• a joint venture with Norway to acquire new submarines.

The acquisition of a heavy life helicopter, and a German battleship were singled out as projects which were able to be supported. In addition, it is likely the money will also be spent on the continued digitalization of the German armed forces.

Germany plans to spend EUR8.9 billion (USD9.9 billion) on armaments in 2020, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said on its website on 5 December upon publication of its latest armaments report.

In 2019, the Bundeswehr received an F125 frigate, 45 Puma infantry fighting vehicles, four Eurofighter combat aircraft, and six A400M transports, among other systems, the ministry said in its 10th biannual armaments report. In addition, the Bundestag authorised spending EUR5.9 billion on new armaments projects in 2019, according to the MoD.

Germany’s EUR45.1 billion defence budget for 2020, representing a 4.2% increase from 2019, will be broken down into EUR7.4 billion(8.2 billion $) for procurement, EUR1.5 billion for development and testing, EUR4.5 billion in equipment and vehicle maintenance, and EUR3.2 billion in services for the Bundeswehr.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

That is your opinion.

Please check think tank thread, I have posted contemporary defence budget spending on CAPEX of multiple countries excluding US&China. To me it did look like effective spending on CAPEX & pipeline is better in India than the countries listed in that post.

Do not compare our Shitty Defense budget with US and China. What are you going to get in this 1.15 lakh crore. What you can buy is minimal. Even in the time of congress, defense used to get 10 to 11 pc rise every year.

 

[ezsasa]

As far as my understanding goes the majority of the defence CAPEX goes into paying pensions and salaries rather than buying equipment. And if that is the case then how is this better?

Nope, both are different heads of accounts.

What people were observing was that this time pensions were higher than capex.

Capex is for buying new equipment exclusively.

Don’t think ammo procurement for old equipment comes under capex. I will correct myself if I come across any new information on this.

 

[ezsasa]

Do not compare our Shitty Defense budget with US and China. What are you going to get in this 1.15 lakh crore. What you can buy is minimal. Even in the time of congress, defense used to get 10 to 11 pc rise every year.

I didn’t, pease read the post again.

If congi had purchased equipment on time, we would not be having this discussion. UPA to be more specific.

NDA is trying to fill the backlogs, and yet being criticised for it.

 

[vampyrbladez]

Do not compare our Shitty Defense budget with US and China. What are you going to get in this 1.15 lakh crore. What you can buy is minimal. Even in the time of congress, defense used to get 10 to 11 pc rise every year.

Every year 10,000 crore would also get returned. Effectively CAPEX was lower but announced higher for political reasons.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

Every year 10,000 crore would also get returned. Effectively CAPEX was lower but announced higher for political reasons.

That was bad but the current allocation for a country of 1.3 billion people as much as countries of 1/10th or 1/20th population of ours is insufficient. We should be more serious and allocate more budget particularly in research.

 

[Why so serious?]

India's January manufacturing activity hits near eight-year high as orders jump
Agencies | Updated: Feb 3, 2020, 14:36 IST

AGENCIES
(Representative image: Reuters)
BENGALURU: India’s manufacturing activity
expanded at its fastest pace in nearly eight years in January with robust growth in new orders and output, a private survey showed on Monday, suggesting the economy may be getting back on firmer footing.


In response to the jump in sales, factories hired new workers at the fastest rate in more than seven years.




The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by IHS Markit, jumped to 55.3 last month from 52.7 in December. It was the highest reading since February 2012 and above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for the 30th straight month.


“The PMI results show that a notable rebound in demand boosted growth of sales, input buying, production and employment as firms focused on rebuilding their inventories and expanding their capacities in anticipation of further increases in new business,” Pollyanna De Lima, principal economist at IHS Markit, stated.


Following a sharp improvement in demand, January saw growth of new business, output, exports, input buying and employment. At the same time, business sentiment strengthened and there were softer rises in both input costs and output charges.


A new orders sub-index that tracks overall demand hit its highest level since December 2014 and output grew at its fastest pace in over seven and a half years, pushing manufacturers to hire at the strongest rate since August 2012.


Companies noted the strongest upturn in new business intakes for over five years, which they attributed to better underlying demand and greater client requirements.


The rise in total sales was supported by strengthening demand from external markets, as noted by the fastest increase in new export orders since November 2018.


On the employment front, hiring activity improved in January, with firms increasing employment at the quickest rate in close to seven-and-a-half years. New business growth and projects in the pipeline were cited as the main reasons for job creation.

Meanwhile, both input costs and output prices rose at a slower pace, indicating overall inflation may have eased after hitting a more than five year high of 7.35% in December, although probably not below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%.


That might keep the central bank, which cut its key interest rate by a cumulative 135 basis points last year, on the sidelines over the coming months.


“To complete the good news, there was also an uptick in business confidence as survey participants expect buoyant demand, new client wins, advertising and product diversification to boost output in the year ahead,” added De Lima.


Lima further said: "To complete the good news, there was also an uptick in business confidence as survey participants expect buoyant demand, new client wins, advertising and product diversification to boost output in the year ahead."


The Reserve Bank is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) during February 4-6, 2020.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

I didn’t, pease read the post again.

If congi had purchased equipment on time, we would not be having this discussion. UPA to be more specific.

NDA is trying to fill the backlogs, and yet being criticised for it.

How can you fullfill requirements by just 5% rise in budget. We have the money to spent everywhere except on defense.

 

[HariPrasad-1]

India's January manufacturing activity hits near eight-year high as orders jump
Agencies | Updated: Feb 3, 2020, 14:36 IST

AGENCIES
(Representative image: Reuters)
BENGALURU: India’s manufacturing activity
expanded at its fastest pace in nearly eight years in January with robust growth in new orders and output, a private survey showed on Monday, suggesting the economy may be getting back on firmer footing.


In response to the jump in sales, factories hired new workers at the fastest rate in more than seven years.




The Nikkei Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index, compiled by IHS Markit, jumped to 55.3 last month from 52.7 in December. It was the highest reading since February 2012 and above the 50-mark separating growth from contraction for the 30th straight month.


“The PMI results show that a notable rebound in demand boosted growth of sales, input buying, production and employment as firms focused on rebuilding their inventories and expanding their capacities in anticipation of further increases in new business,” Pollyanna De Lima, principal economist at IHS Markit, stated.


Following a sharp improvement in demand, January saw growth of new business, output, exports, input buying and employment. At the same time, business sentiment strengthened and there were softer rises in both input costs and output charges.


A new orders sub-index that tracks overall demand hit its highest level since December 2014 and output grew at its fastest pace in over seven and a half years, pushing manufacturers to hire at the strongest rate since August 2012.


Companies noted the strongest upturn in new business intakes for over five years, which they attributed to better underlying demand and greater client requirements.


The rise in total sales was supported by strengthening demand from external markets, as noted by the fastest increase in new export orders since November 2018.


On the employment front, hiring activity improved in January, with firms increasing employment at the quickest rate in close to seven-and-a-half years. New business growth and projects in the pipeline were cited as the main reasons for job creation.

Meanwhile, both input costs and output prices rose at a slower pace, indicating overall inflation may have eased after hitting a more than five year high of 7.35% in December, although probably not below the Reserve Bank of India’s medium-term target of 4%.


That might keep the central bank, which cut its key interest rate by a cumulative 135 basis points last year, on the sidelines over the coming months.


“To complete the good news, there was also an uptick in business confidence as survey participants expect buoyant demand, new client wins, advertising and product diversification to boost output in the year ahead,” added De Lima.


Lima further said: "To complete the good news, there was also an uptick in business confidence as survey participants expect buoyant demand, new client wins, advertising and product diversification to boost output in the year ahead."


The Reserve Bank is scheduled to hold its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) during February 4-6, 2020.

Excellent news. I would always like manufacturing sector to grow more rapidly than Service sector and Agriculture sector grow faster than manufacturing sector because Agriculture provides more employment than Manufacturing sector and manufacturing sector will provide more jobs than service sector. In agriculture sector , more low skilled people get employment in other sector.

 

[ezsasa]

How can you fullfill requirements by just 5% rise in budget. We have the money to spent everywhere except on defense.

1) By making payments on time. Payments are made in tranches, not lump sum. Delay in payments only increases the cost.

2) By buying indigenous products as much as possible.

3) if money falls short, submit supplementary demand for grants in parliament, and get it passed on parliament. this happens atleast once after the budget session every year.

Now it’s the CDS job to decide on pipeline for purchases.

Edit: let me also add again what everyone seems to be missing out in discourse. IAF spent 8.4 billion $ on upgrading 37 airfields(phase 1) in last 4 years while buying apache chinook at the same time and IA inducted dhanush, new BPJ, helmets, MRSAM, new pinaka regiment, new Brahmos regiment, procuring 10i ammo etc etc, IN too didn’t stop construction and induction.

I’d bet same type of airfield upgrade would cost double in US & Europe.

Safe to say govt know what they are doing.

 

[vampyrbladez]

That was bad but the current allocation for a country of 1.3 billion people as much as countries of 1/10th or 1/20th population of ours is insufficient. We should be more serious and allocate more budget particularly in research.

Then we need to cut down on subsidy which will cause revolts. If we want thing cheaper and more numerous, we need to buy indigenous. Most technology can be procured right here. OFB unions have proven themselves as useless.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

So the conclusion is that Modi kaka really doesn't know economy?

Modi was never supposed to know the economy. He was supposed to select innovative people who do know the economy, and give them freedom to implement their plans. Instead, from the beginning of his government, he has picked random people who don't know much about the economy themselves, and now Nirmala Sitaraman who is a certified idiot, and arrogant on top of that. He has really lost the plot on how to run the country. There are so many areas apart from economy, such as Environment, Education, Infrastructure, Defence, where we need guys who are brilliant to handle and transform these sectors. None of these have happened. The only good posting is Amit Shah as home minister.

 

[ezsasa]

Modi was never supposed to know the economy. He was supposed to select innovative people who do know the economy, and give them freedom to implement their plans. Instead, from the beginning of his government, he has picked random people who don't know much about the economy themselves, and now Nirmala Sitaraman who is a certified idiot, and arrogant on top of that. He has really lost the plot on how to run the country. There are so many areas apart from economy, such as Environment, Education, Infrastructure, Defence, where we need guys who are brilliant to handle and transform these sectors. None of these have happened. The only good posting is Amit Shah as home minister.

Regarding NS.

I just watched a bit of NS Q&A that happened at FICCI few hours ago. It looks like FICCI people don’t really have any problems with economy. the questions that are being asked were narrow band fine tuning rather than sweeping reforms.

Fine tuning can happen anytime during the year, not necessarily only during budget speech.

As I keep saying, no matter what BJP does they will always be criticised. Expectation mismatch is always going to be there.

More importantly, majority of baniyas are good at only asking for sops from govt. they have no clue how to think 20-30 years ahead.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

Regarding NS.

I just watched a bit of NS Q&A that happened at FICCI few hours ago. It looks like FICCI people don’t really have any problems with economy. the questions that are being asked were narrow band fine tuning rather than sweeping reforms.

Fine tuning can happen anytime during the year, not necessarily only during budget speech.

As I keep saying, no matter what BJP does they will always be criticised.

I'm talking about the big picture of BJP's overall allocation of ministries. We need people of much better calibre than the present set, apart from Modi-Shah. We are not seeing the kind of party reforms that are needed. Constructive criticism is necessary to put pressure on the party. None of us want to see Congress coming back, or some sort of coalition government where nothing gets done. As for Nirmala Sitaraman, I know people who've dealt with her, and there's nothing good they have to say about her.

BJP is also somewhat detached from the ground reality now, though that's the fault of the babus. Civil serveants are feeding a lot of false statistics to BJP leaders, without the things actually being done on the ground. So it paints a much rosier picture of different projects that what is actually there. A prime example is the reforestation and greening agenda, where the figures coming in are downright BS.