Indian Economy: News and Discussion

SKC

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Japanese IMO are slow to adapt to the changing economic dynamics. Both Honda, Toyota had a classical line up with a sedan, executive sedan an SUV. Honda had City, Civic, Accord and CrV as SUV. Toyota had similar line up with Corolla, Camry, Fortuner. But in the last decade with the expanding middle class many sub- sections of the categories opened up. The compact SUV category created by Renault Duster, expanded by Ford Ecosport and finally dominated by Maruti Brezza, Hyundai Creta. Then another category opened below compact SUVs called sub compact segment and while other brands filled up the space Honda, Toyota remained out of it.
Then their Executive sedans were so costly that they touched price with the German luxury brands so consumers preferred the luxe brands than a costly Japanese.
Further, both did not have any Hatchbacks in India market so remained out of a major chunk of market while Suzuki and Hyundai built their revenues on it. Honda s Jazz was in out of shape and came out later.
Toyota launched cheaper options like Etios, Liva, Yaris but it was too late by then so, they have decided to build only SUV, MPVs and Honda has also reduced it's portfolio to core products City, Amaze.
Keep in mind one thing that: these two are not doing great in India only. Globally both are doing quite good.
Both Honda Civic and Toyota Camry are both in top 5 most selling cars globally year after year.

Honda and Toyota both wanted to milk Indian subcontinent as whole. Honda was offering poor 70s design moterbikes in India along with Hero group. However the Sudden revolution by Bajaj and TVS shocked all Japanese Bike brands and they had to ditch old bikes in favor of new upto date bikes here.

These Japanese brands are still selling 70-80s design in Pak, Bangladesh and other countries.
 

SKC

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Something i'd like to point out to all, both members and lurkers (potential bizmen here)

you guys know that nowadays fuckin' choyneez have started exporting fuckin' Parathas to the west ?!
came to know about it form a friend living in the NeanderthalLands Netherlands

View attachment 167697
(notice the halal certified logo lool right in muh xinjiang correction camp)

some other varieties...
View attachment 167698
View attachment 167699

🤷‍♂️ when i asked if any alternative indian brand present there for such "frozen" parathas he replied nada, none.
Our haldiram and other boys should rave up their games before it's late.
We had these in Shanghai. Available in all big marts like, Walmart, Carrefour, etc. The parantha are decent but the Roties are sh*t.
The halal sign is on most muslim run restaurants in Shanghai and other chinese cities. There are chinese indigenous muslims, Hui, which are running them mostly. They have beers too in these restaurants.
 

HariPrasad-1

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11% growth over next decade could make India world’s second largest economy by 2031: RBI Deputy Governor

“Currently, India is the third largest economy in the world in PPP terms, with a share of 7% of global GDP (after China and the U.S.,” says Michael Debabrata Patra.

If India achieves a growth rate of 11% into the next decade, it would become the second largest economy in the world not by 2048 as projected earlier, but by 2031, said Michael Debabrata Patra, Deputy Governor, Reserve Bank of India


// another what if scenario

11% is very much possible at market rate. It is difficult to achieve in real term.
 

SKC

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Out of all. Only TSMC and Samsung is front guys and others are not interested to fight in advanced node like 5 nm. Lets say even if some Indian decided to start foundry and when we need necessary machines for advanced node, we cannot buy the machine since ASML majority of machines will go TSMC and Samsung other may get 1 or 2 machines. The problem is only one manufacturer is there and if we need to crack this market a massive effort is needed in establishing both foundries and R&D to indigenize the EUV machines. But as a initial step we need to establish 28 nm and 65 nm foundries where we can get machines easily.
Don't waste time on EUV machine. I don't think we can crack it even in next 50 yrs.
Rather focus on achievable goals like setting up a basic large scale foundry.
 

Arjun Mk1A

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Don't waste time on EUV machine. I don't think we can crack it even in next 50 yrs.
Rather focus on achievable goals like setting up a basic large scale foundry.

We should not leave this tech simply because we don't have certain capability. But what I am trying to say a particular EUV machine may contains hundreds of components. We can find the low hanging components first and starts to indigenize it or use in our own Lithography machine or even try to supply it to ASML. Moving on we will try to indigenize components with increasing complexity. I can say 100% currently China is doing this activity in some Production facility.

These types of Concurrent development happened when we have Vikram Sarabhai, Homi Bhabha, Kalam, Sathish Dhawan etc. Even at that time the Babudom may be better.

But current Babus are grade corrupts. It needs massive efforts.
 

SKC

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We should not leave this tech simply because we don't have certain capability. But what I am trying to say a particular EUV machine may contains hundreds of components. We can find the low hanging components first and starts to indigenize it or use in our own Lithography machine or even try to supply it to ASML. Moving on we will try to indigenize components with increasing complexity. I can say 100% currently China is doing this activity in some Production facility.

These types of Concurrent development happened when we have Vikram Sarabhai, Homi Bhabha, Kalam, Sathish Dhawan etc. Even at that time the Babudom may be better.

But current Babus are grade corrupts. It needs massive efforts.
If it was that simple then the players of this field who are miles ahead of you would have already cracked it and would have been building them in Bulk.

The Japanese companies like Panasonic, Neppon etc just gave up on EUV development a decade back and US is no where in the scene.

Don't waste time and money on something which is not simply feasible for us.
 

Concard

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We should not leave this tech simply because we don't have certain capability. But what I am trying to say a particular EUV machine may contains hundreds of components. We can find the low hanging components first and starts to indigenize it or use in our own Lithography machine or even try to supply it to ASML. Moving on we will try to indigenize components with increasing complexity. I can say 100% currently China is doing this activity in some Production facility.

These types of Concurrent development happened when we have Vikram Sarabhai, Homi Bhabha, Kalam, Sathish Dhawan etc. Even at that time the Babudom may be better.

But current Babus are grade corrupts. It needs massive efforts.
If you want to build a EUV or DUV machine then you need to have a strong base in optics, photonics and mainly laser physics. You can't overnight build or master these technologies without building the foundation. ASML sources it's components from 700 suppliers which they have exclusive contracts with. One key supplier is Carl Zeiss. Does China have anything close to Carl Zeiss? I don't think so. Achieving certain technological capability takes time. And I have not even gone into other complex components and software which goes into Lithographic machine.

Try building the smaller components which goes into Lithographic machine first and then slowly you can understand the intricate workings of the machine and improve upon it. There are no short cuts. As for as India is concerned we should first have a 28nm/45nm/65nm fab up and running. Then we can focus on building the smaller components. As our economy grows and more funds are available then we can pour that money into R & D.
 

Roshan

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Japanese IMO are slow to adapt to the changing economic dynamics. Both Honda, Toyota had a classical line up with a sedan, executive sedan an SUV. Honda had City, Civic, Accord and CrV as SUV. Toyota had similar line up with Corolla, Camry, Fortuner. But in the last decade with the expanding middle class many sub- sections of the categories opened up. The compact SUV category created by Renault Duster, expanded by Ford Ecosport and finally dominated by Maruti Brezza, Hyundai Creta. Then another category opened below compact SUVs called sub compact segment and while other brands filled up the space Honda, Toyota remained out of it.
Then their Executive sedans were so costly that they touched price with the German luxury brands so consumers preferred the luxe brands than a costly Japanese.
Further, both did not have any Hatchbacks in India market so remained out of a major chunk of market while Suzuki and Hyundai built their revenues on it. Honda s Jazz was in out of shape and came out later.
Toyota launched cheaper options like Etios, Liva, Yaris but it was too late by then so, they have decided to build only SUV, MPVs and Honda has also reduced it's portfolio to core products City, Amaze.
Had a Honda city for more than a decade and a half. Till date they don't optimize their cars for Indian roads despite all their other obvious virtues. Undercarriage frequently scrapes speed breakers and bumps which is a big no-no when you intend to keep a car for a long time like most Indian middle class folks tend to do.
During 2010 or so due to rising petrol prices both GM and Volkswagen ate into their market share because of a similar steadfast refusal to even talk about releasing a diesel variant. They bit the bullet eventually when they had no choice. The Indian market is one that not all brands understand or manage to crack, it's disappointing that they had the opportunity to dominate it but dawdled when they needed to make a change.
 

Arjun Mk1A

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Try building the smaller components which goes into Lithographic machine first and then slowly you can understand the intricate workings of the machine and improve upon it. There are no short cuts. As for as India is concerned we should first have a 28nm/45nm/65nm fab up and running. Then we can focus on building the smaller components. As our economy grows and more funds are available then we can pour that money into R & D.

This is what I am telling my friend. Try to indigenize less complex parts within our capability. We can establish a major base for consumer electronics based SC like micro controller, PC processors etc.
 

Haldilal

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If it was that simple then the players of this field who are miles ahead of you would have already cracked it and would have been building them in Bulk.

The Japanese companies like Panasonic, Neppon etc just gave up on EUV development a decade back and US is no where in the scene.

Don't waste time and money on something which is not simply feasible for us.
Ya'll Nibbiars first we built Reactor with the foreign help and then made the Bomb. We first made satellite with the Russian and french helps and then massively funded the SLVs. Which was barely funded till 1973. Fish we need to create a Optice and photonic Indistry along with the Fabrication Foundrys facilities. And only then we can totally flush on the DUVs.
 

another_armchair

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@Haldilal, any idea what is the exposure of our banking sector to this segment of steelmakers?
 

SKC

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Ya'll Nibbiars first we built Reactor with the foreign help and then made the Bomb. We first made satellite with the Russian and french helps and then massively funded the SLVs. Which was barely funded till 1973. Fish we need to create a Optice and photonic Indistry along with the Fabrication Foundrys facilities. And only then we can totally flush on the DUVs.
Not comparable. We do have Several nations with Nuclear capabilities and multiple nations making as well as launching their own satellites.
But we don't have several nations making their own lithography machines too for bulk production.
 

Haldilal

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@Haldilal, any idea what is the exposure of our banking sector to this segment of steelmakers?
Ya'll Nibbiars large is a long time Indistry who has borrowed from the banks since decades and the banks even has no problems landing to them whatever their size and health conditions as this indisry has always had better returns for banks in their servicing. And even the Bhusqn, Wellspun and Bamnipal Steel Insolvency resulted in better recovery comapred to oth3r sectors and despite the problems they will have not great stress on the Banks healths. And even if its a secondary steel makers.
 

Haldilal

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Not comparable. We do have Several nations with Nuclear capabilities and multiple nations making as well as launching their own satellites.
But we don't have several nations making their own lithography machines too for bulk production.
Ya'll Nibbiars several or not when we have the base then we can currently need Foundries. The research in the GAN is going on with crores of funding from the GOI. We will better invested in the Fabs and Sem8 Conductors just open the avenues. There are other sectors than the UAV where we can invest and dominate. Even making machines other than EUV will be beneficial in the long terms. And invetment in the silicon wafres is another avenues which is dominated by the Japan and here meant by high grade semi conductor ones not the solar ones. And most important R & D and more petants in this sector your fans are useless without patents. The mleechas are investing heavily in the R & D to gain more petants in this sectors.
 

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