So sanctions on russians by Americans will cost dear to India, which is always there and will be there in future. But its not s400 specific isnt it? Or nothing to do with India (its due to euro vs usa vs russia problems ). I dont think its that big issue. If cold war aggravated (russia vs usa)we can always look for brics for foreign currency solutions.
Point to be noted : Russia is UN veto member , its not easy to other western bullies devaste Russians as if they are Iranians
The US has a blacklist called SDN, if a country, or weapon or a company is on that list, then they are harassed. They just arbitrarily add things to this list as and when they want, without any consideration to any international norms. For example, S400 does not violate any norms since it is neither under nuclear arms control clause nor is it under MTCR since India has become a member of MTCR.
The core point is that US wants India to be vulnerable (to be clear, every other nation wants that too, because that is how they get to sell their weapons). If S400 is bought by India, then the US loses its blackmailing power to play the Pakistan card.
The UN veto doesn't really help. Take the case of French sale of Mistral ships worth 2B$ to Russia itself. The US blocked it during Ukraine conflict. If Russia cannot guarantee that they themselves get weapons delivery in their own time of need, how can we be sure that they will deliver to us?
In this case, both China and US have a consensus that India must be prevented from buying the S400. When two big powers have consensus, it becomes a tough job to break that jinx. Even if the currency is arranged somehow, the US has other ways to blackmail Russia. They can simply tell them to stop the sale of S400 in exchange for US recognizing Crimea as a part of Russia. The US has a lot of carrot and sticks to offer, even to its enemies.
The ONLY military buildup that the US will 'allow' India to indulge in is when that buildup is against specific Chinese capabilities and when it fits the US plan. For 60 years, they stalled our attempt to get into space weapons by killing our scientists, and they prevented us from developing a blue water navy by funding terrorists so that India was forced to spend a major % of defense budget on ground forces and there was no cash left for Navy. Now they are 'allowing' Navy modernization because that fits into their joint Naval drills against China. But they wont allow S400 because that neutralizes the investment they made in turning Pakistan into a nuclear power.
We have our own bargaining cards. Let's see how Modi plays it. One thing is for sure, even if this 'great game' makes us feel uncomfortable, we must look at it from a positive perspective. We have at least climbed our way to the top where we are sitting at the high table and negotiating a global world order with Russia, China and US.
There is a new multipolar world order that is ultimately taking shape :
A Billion Christians (US + Latin America + Europe + Russia) Versus a billion Chinese Versus a billion Hindus. Compare this tri-polar world order of 21st century with that of 20th century, when all the 3 powers who were negotiating the the fate of the whole planet were Christians (US vs Germany vs Russia). At least that monopoly has gone. The Muslims are busy killing each other, they have no say in global affairs. All they can do is one suicide blast here, one beheading there, just nuisance value, nothing more. The foremost Muslim nations are all armed by NATO (Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi), so they have no power of their own.
So India must start thinking in terms of a solitary power instead of a 'Russian ally'. If the US offers a suitable bribe to Russia in exchange for cancelling the deal, then Russia will take it. No one is going to take care of our interests, we will need to have alternatives and solutions for everything. This game will keep going.
