India-Pakistan LoC/IB Skirmishes in the Aftermath of August 5 2019

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aarav

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Holy Triad

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Pakistan violates ceasefire for 2nd consecutive day
The firing from across the border started in Sunderbani sector around 1240 hours, prompting strong and effective retaliation by Indian Army guarding the border, the officer said.


https://m.economictimes.com/news/de...leshow/70578103.cms?__twitter_impression=true

The firing from across the border started in Sunderbani sector around 1240 hours, prompting strong and effective retaliation by Indian Army guarding the border, the officer said.

He said the exchange of firing between the two sides continued till 1430 hours.


However, there was no immediate report of any casualty in the Pakistani firing which was unprovoked, he said.

This was the third ceasefire violation along the LoC in the past four days. On August 3, Pakistan targeted Mehdhar sector of Poonch.


Last month, two army personnel and a 10-day old baby were killed and several civilians injured in heavy Pakistani shelling and firing in the twin districts of Poonch and Rajouri in Jammu region
 

IndianHawk

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Observations post abrogation of Art. 370

1) Internationally, countries except China, no one has gone against the decision.

2) USA's sudden statement that our government didn't consult USA, preceded by the mediation dialog, shows a shift on attitude and policy of USA (probably sensing an armed conflict between India and Pakistan will screw their withdrawal efforts from Afghanistan).

P. S. Why should India ask USA? Do they ask us before taking decisions related to their internal affairs?

3) Upto now, Pakistan is not even considering war, for two reasons, a) their economy, b) USA - they cannot allow Pakistan to commit suicide and screw USA up in the process.

4) But there seems to be a twist, since there is a stance change by USA and that too, quite visible, Pakistan can suddenly attack, believing, USA will back them, any one remember 1971?

5) India on the other hand is waiting for any misadventure from Pak army/airforce, will get the opportunity to get bak PoK.

6) This is the most important part here, for once, the interest of China and USA are aligned, neither wants India to hammer Pakistan, because of their own interest, cpec and USA presence in Afghanistan.
This I see as a cause of worry for India, and India might have to deal with good amount of pressure from both in case the situation escalates (there are very high chances that they will).

The point is, I hope Indian gov is prepared for this political war, which will be bit more difficult, than actually boming the royal shit out of Pakistan.

Thoughts?

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China has only objected to laddakh part as we claim aksai chin . They didn't even mention Pakistan.

As for USA. Since trump lied about Modi . We returned the favour. All these we informed USA before are lies to make trump look like an idiot and never dare to cross Modi again.

Trump wanted to get out of Afghanistan so be was supporting Pak against India for a while.
Modi turned the table and have forced USA to hedge.

Similarly if trump can't even fight in ragtag Syria and Afghanistan those thinking of us intervene in Kashmir against india are delusional. Trump wants out of war zones.


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Priyabrata

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China has only objected to laddakh part as we claim aksai chin . They didn't even mention Pakistan.

As for USA. Since trump lied about Modi . We returned the favour. All these we informed USA before are lies to make trump look like an idiot and never dare to cross Modi again.

Trump wanted to get out of Afghanistan so be was supporting Pak against India for a while.
Modi turned the table and have forced USA to hedge.

Similarly if trump can't even fight in ragtag Syria and Afghanistan those thinking of us intervene in Kashmir against india are delusional. Trump wants out of war zones.


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Their interference might not be with men, but also with machinery, reason, as correctly pointed out by you, they want out of war zones. Imagine if India attacks Pakistan now, how will us army on ground waiting to get out of afganisthan, actually get out? Looks like a mess for USA from that perspective.

Secondly, China has interest in cpec, in case India reclaims pok, do you think they will be allowed a road through? It will be another dokalam like situation and I do not think China will ever want that.

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IndianHawk

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Their interference might not be with men, but also with machinery, reason, as correctly pointed out by you, they want out of war zones. Imagine if India attacks Pakistan now, how will us army on ground waiting to get out of afganisthan, actually get out? Looks like a mess for USA from that perspective.

Secondly, China has interest in cpec, in case India reclaims pok, do you think they will be allowed a road through? It will be another dokalam like situation and I do not think China will ever want that.

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Usa giving machinery to Pak will endanger arms sell to India. We are talking about 20-30 billion usd over next 10 years. Will USA loose it ? I don't think so.

To get out of Afghanistan they have more lever on Pak . IMF bailout is one and FATF is another .
Both could make Pakistan bankrupt overnight.
Usa can impose it's will on Pakistan. Now with India not playing ball USA options are these only.

Regarding china what they want doesn't matter. What Matters is what they can do? And they can't do much in pok / gilgit area. They only have a single road connectivity through high mountain and a single bomb can cut that road off. Chinese airforce doesn't have effective presence in Tibet nor can they fly from that altitude with meaningful load.

To summarise china is basically impotent in this matter.

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IndianHawk

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We must take advantage of China's impotence now. If China is cut off from Pakistan and order is restored in Afghanistan, we can decisively enter the Central Asian scene and secure future geopolitical ambitions.

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That will happen first we need to settle the vibes in valley.

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apoorv465

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POK Takeover: :There was plan in Dec 1987 (Op Trident) to capture part of POK

:Main objective: Skardu

:2 pronged attack
-1st: THOISE-Turtok-Khaplu-Skardu along Shyok River
-2nd: Kargil-along Shingo & Indus River-Skardu

:diversionary axis -Gurez-Minimarg-Burzil Pass-Astore-Gilgit

 

HariPrasad-1

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POK Takeover: :There was plan in Dec 1987 (Op Trident) to capture part of POK

:Main objective: Skardu

:2 pronged attack
-1st: THOISE-Turtok-Khaplu-Skardu along Shyok River
-2nd: Kargil-along Shingo & Indus River-Skardu

:diversionary axis -Gurez-Minimarg-Burzil Pass-Astore-Gilgit

It was operation brastek. The objective was to penetrate in Pakistan from various place after exercise which designed specially for attack on Pakistan. It was general krishna swamy sunder ji who had planned all this. It was aimed at cutting Pakistan into 4 pieces. It didn't happened due to weakness of Rajiv GANDHI , then PM of India.
 

aghamarshana

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All rumours...take with a load of NaCl.


Now there are 3 sets of Rumour flowing
~PAF planes entered into Indian Air space for 10 sec upto 2-3km
~India has shot down one of Pak plane which tried to intrude
~An Paki AWAC came close to I A S & was told to return back.

No confirmation is available par dil chahta ha 2 ho

What are these rumours?
 

ezsasa

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All rumours...take with a load of NaCl.


Now there are 3 sets of Rumour flowing
~PAF planes entered into Indian Air space for 10 sec upto 2-3km
~India has shot down one of Pak plane which tried to intrude
~An Paki AWAC came close to I A S & was told to return back.

No confirmation is available par dil chahta ha 2 ho

What are these rumours?
This is just cyber jihadis trying to trigger an incident, similar to how they tried to trigger incident post Pulwama by spreading rumours about shakargarh.

I still don’t think the impact of this weeks events have sunk in for them.

Imagine you are 20-30 years old and your fundamental beliefs come crashing down. It would be tough for anybody.
 

IndianHawk

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This is just cyber jihadis trying to trigger an incident, similar to how they tried to trigger incident post Pulwama by spreading rumours about shakargarh.

I still don’t think the impact of this weeks events have sunk in for them.
They are all walking into traps laid by doval. They can't understand it. Can't stop it. It's check mate from before the game was even set!

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afako

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All rumours...take with a load of NaCl.


Now there are 3 sets of Rumour flowing
~PAF planes entered into Indian Air space for 10 sec upto 2-3km
~India has shot down one of Pak plane which tried to intrude
~An Paki AWAC came close to I A S & was told to return back.

No confirmation is available par dil chahta ha 2 ho

What are these rumours?
These may be rumours but I feel allowing Pakistan to come in India and throw bombs and allowing them Scot free is a strategy to make them over confident and repeat it and that will give the reason for India to escalate full war.

We need a justification to start attack. Pakis are already into trap.

It’s not that we couldn’t stop them or we can’t respond disproportionately.

If you observe aam Abdul’s have the 27 Feb PAF bravado to live today post Balakot to face themselves in the mirror, that’s how much their life is invested in the narrative of their armed forces. They are waiting for Pakistan armed forces to give another moment desperately.

Modi knows this. He will respond and humiliate Pakistan so much that their people will start killing themselves due to the shame attached. This is a longer game and results are even sweeter.
 

IndianHawk

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Although I agree ,we have done our homework ,but there are always surprises,
So , overconfidence should never be shown in critical business like war.

And as general's say no battle plan survives the first contact, there are always complications.

Let's wait ,we don't know what's happening in Kashmir or pork side of loc like buildup or any action ,and this scarcity of info is good,
From the looks of it Indian establishment looks chill, while porks are panicking.

I like what I see.
It's not about mere plans or battles . It's about determination. We are resolutely determined to protect and keep Kashmir and retaliate against Pakistan.

A few blasts or short term paki drama doesn't change anything. We will simply won't stop this time.

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patriots

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Jajjsjsjjdjdhdjdjdjjfjdjfjdjdhjf


From a Pakistani..Twitter osint handle
 
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