India Pakistan conflict along LoC and counter terrorist operations

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DownWithCCP

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DownWithCCP

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Nuclear Strike by pakistan seems unlikely even in the describe scenario, according to Abhijit iyer mitra during a war game in America, retired Pakistani generals, establishment members when faced with the same scenario did not use the Nuclear weapons.
What most likely may happen is after sufficient ground is gained across the IB, an offer of ceasefire and exchange of territories(PoK) may be offered which might actually be agreed upon.
 

DerBronzeLord

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As has been discussed here, the possible reasons for the meet could be a further division of J&K or restoration of statehood to Jammu(Kashmir is HIGHLY unlikely even in the mid-term). However, would a division or restoration of statehood need such big guys all meeting, along with an All India Party Meet being scheduled? Seems a bit off to me that something like this is in the running.

The restoration of statehood to Jammu could lead to questions in the Valley on why their statehood isn't being restored, but the levels of violence would not reach any level like there was in 2016, with at best a few stonepelting incidents, and a possible slight uptick(maybe a dozen more?) in militant numbers. The Govt. initiatives for economic development along with outreach to Kashmiris post Article 370 was done with the intention of winning over the Kashmiri people(not here to debate whether this is feasible or not:lehappy:).A secondary objective could have been winning over people in PoK and showing them that economic growth is only possible with India, possibly hastening the assimilation process of PoK Kashmiris in the event of a retaking of PoK.

Further division of J&K could be possible, with the oft-quoted statement that some territories of Kashmir could be annexed into Jammu, but I for one don't see the point in doing something like this. It would only increase the Muslim population of Jammu, making it harder for any future establishment of Jammu as the true frontier of India along the Paki and Chink borders. It would also cause an unnecessary increase in hostilities between the GoI and Kashmiris who support India, along with the fact that it makes no administrative sense.

As many who frequent this thread know, militant numbers have reduced drastically over the last 2 years, with the numbers being as low as 100 at this point, with at least four-fifths of them being locals who are absolutely untrained and armed with poor-quality weapons. Pakistan is unable to transport weapons easily due to a strengthening of border surveillance and prevention of drone and other incursions. Several groups have been eliminated in the last 4 years, the Hindu population is increasing and pro-separatist politicians are either "missing" or under the firm control of the GoI. Administration roles have been largely taken over by Hindus from the rest of the country, with the subsequent sidelining of locals having reduced the possibility of any adverse sympathies among the administration, as was present in the past, even under the rule of the NDA in Kashmir. Clerics and teachers who preached separatism are either arrested under the new rules:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com...ol-faces-terror-scan/articleshow/78630028.cms



So this begs the question, if separatism is at an all time low, Kashmir is ruled with an iron fist with a velvet glove, there is absolutely no need for administrative changes, what is the plan of the GoI? I for one hope that it is more of an "external" issue handling.
 

iNorthernerOn9

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Time for unpopular opinion

Taliban cannot rule or govern... they can never be at peace... hordes of Afghans will be driven to POK

WAVES after WAVES after WAVES of jihadis will hit Indian defence line at LOC in 2nd world war fashion... just a matter of months

chalo... ab sab milkar hanso 🤣
aap log aur sun lo... phir aur zyada hasna

To create a decent environment for chinese exploitation of Afghanistan... it is necessary to keep the Taliban &other jihadis busy... & nothing better than jihad-e-Kashmir to keep them busy
 

DerBronzeLord

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Nuclear Strike by pakistan seems unlikely even in the describe scenario, according to Abhijit iyer mitra during a war game in America, retired Pakistani generals, establishment members when faced with the same scenario did not use the Nuclear weapons.
Precisely what I thought. For all the ribbing against Pak on this forum(many of it justified), the Paki nuclear doctrine is pretty solid. The 8-10 km liberation of Paki territory as described in the article doesn't warrant a nuclear strike. Pak has some pretty concrete limits which are pretty open tbh. Stopping of water to Pak entirely, a nuclear strike on Paki cities, crossing the Indus river in the event of a war. If you are interested in the Pakistani nuclear doctrine(I highly recommend you to read this):


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_doctrine_of_Pakistan

http://www.defencejournal.com/apr99/pak-nuclear-doctrine.htm


The second article/paper is more interesting, as it is written by an ex-Chief of the Pakistani Strategic Forces Command, the overseeing body of Pakistan's nuclear program.

The Wikipedia article is much more condensed, but it is more succinct to read. Please don't pillory me for attaching a Wikipedia article. :tongue2:
 

iNorthernerOn9

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aap log aur sun lo... phir aur zyada hasna

To create a decent environment for chinese exploitation of Afghanistan... it is necessary to keep the Taliban &other jihadis busy... & nothing better than jihad-e-Kashmir to keep them busy

On pretext of Indian interference in Afghanistan or any other "aasmaani" idea... pakis will make the taliban/other afghani jihad factions to fight in Kashmir

Taliban(as perceived winners riding the high horse) will treat Afghanistan as their jaagir... & will held chinese & pakis accountable for every ounce of ore taken out... this doesn't go well with the chinese business model...

Afghanistan will pay from its nose for all the losses china has made through CPEC....

chalo ab hasna shuru karo
 

iNorthernerOn9

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Precisely what I thought. For all the ribbing against Pak on this forum(many of it justified), the Paki nuclear doctrine is pretty solid. The 8-10 km liberation of Paki territory as described in the article doesn't warrant a nuclear strike. Pak has some pretty concrete limits which are pretty open tbh. Stopping of water to Pak entirely, a nuclear strike on Paki cities, crossing the Indus river in the event of a war. If you are interested in the Pakistani nuclear doctrine(I highly recommend you to read this):


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_doctrine_of_Pakistan

http://www.defencejournal.com/apr99/pak-nuclear-doctrine.htm


The second article/paper is more interesting, as it is written by an ex-Chief of the Pakistani Strategic Forces Command, the overseeing body of Pakistan's nuclear program.

The Wikipedia article is much more condensed, but it is more succinct to read. Please don't pillory me for attaching a Wikipedia article. :tongue2:
Tactical nukes are only meant for sindh/desert areas... not for Punjab & Kashmir

it is in the southern areas where paki army is thinly deployed... to offset that weakness in numbers they deployed that tactical nuke

will never be used in Punjab(can't even think) & kashmir(will lose all moral standing if it does so)
 

Ayushraj

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An interesting article I found recently(note that this is from 2015):

https://www.hindustantimes.com/anal...ar-scenario/story-gundIhC1iC0amJjMFYo3AN.html
Indian strategy to fight porkistan
2002-2020- to fight porkistan with lighting war (blitzkrieg) quick mobilization(just like in 1971 war ended in 13 days) . During operation parakram iaf have spotted 3000 inside porkistan. Indian Army combined with air force and navy will ensure complete destruction of strategic target inside porkistan. Indian armour was prepared to do German army type assault of ww2 during operation Barbarrosa.Assault would be of that much Feriousity that porkis will not be able to deploy their nukes.
But from 2020 indian army started focussing on threatre command. On indian army and iaf will focus on sub tactical level operation inside porkistan with lighting war. War will be confined to sub tactical level (eg Baltistan theatre) since it is disputed area of probability of use of nukes in minimal since no international violation will be done. Now indian army objective is to win battle before porkis could mobilize their army effectively at that theatre. Indian Army could mobilize in other theatre in order to confuse porki army from where real assault will come from.
 

ezsasa

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Time for unpopular opinion

Taliban cannot rule or govern... they can never be at peace... hordes of Afghans will be driven to POK

WAVES after WAVES after WAVES of jihadis will hit Indian defence line at LOC in 2nd world war fashion... just a matter of months

chalo... ab sab milkar hanso 🤣
it’s not a unpopular opinion, this scenario exists in the list of probabilities. It has happened before in early 90’s, it can happen again.
 

iNorthernerOn9

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l
What kind of a joker he ia, does heen think before opening his mouth that what he’s about to speak? How’s India’s presence in Afghanistan a matter for Pakistan? It’s our choice to have our presence in Afghanistan if Afghan government welcomes it.

oho... kyun nahi samajhte aap log

China wants 100% of the Afghan pie... like it got 100% of the "Iranian" pie...

Pakistan is only the dalal to ensure security & eliminate threats to chinese by all methods

All interest of CPEC will be paid back by Afghanistan
 

Indrajit

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As has been discussed here, the possible reasons for the meet could be a further division of J&K or restoration of statehood to Jammu(Kashmir is HIGHLY unlikely even in the mid-term). However, would a division or restoration of statehood need such big guys all meeting, along with an All India Party Meet being scheduled? Seems a bit off to me that something like this is in the running.

The restoration of statehood to Jammu could lead to questions in the Valley on why their statehood isn't being restored, but the levels of violence would not reach any level like there was in 2016, with at best a few stonepelting incidents, and a possible slight uptick(maybe a dozen more?) in militant numbers.
How do you "restore" statehood to Jammu alone considering that Jammu and Kashmir are a single entity?
 
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