India Pakistan conflict along IB and LoC (July 2021 onwards)

[hit&run]

Pak-shit-tanis may attempt a "Swift Retard" type of retaliation in next few days, who knows.

PA cannot be seen weak in front of their bhookhi awam. It can have consequences.

Yes possibility is very high.

 

[Rassil Krishnan]

If the Pakistani claim of tracking the entire missile flight path is true, then they have got a sophisticated missile tracking system in place which can track low RCS supersonic missiles, even China is giving them ylc stealth radars. This radar sites needs to be decimated first with Rudram missiles. Incidents like 27th Feb and yesterday should happened frequently so that we know their progress. If this incident didn't happened, we would have never knew that they have the capability to track supersonic missiles in enemy territory just after launch

tracking is easy,doing something about the flying object is the important part.brahmos is not meant to be stealthy,it is meant to hit hard and fly fast.also this brahmos missile was flying high and it is capable of going low.so they tracked a high altitude object which is easier.so no achievement or value was gained for pakistan.

 

[Photon]

This is far from an accidental Brahmos launch. There are so many minute details in this that make the entire episode so spooky.

1. The missile round was fired from an operational TEL of an Army regiment or airforce squadron. Brahmos is a wooden round and the missile is hermetically stored inside the canister. So the missile would be having a perfectly functional warhead and not an inert warhead as many are speculating.

2. Before a missile is actually launched, a battery of self diagnostic tests on the missile are carried out which indicates the health and actual status of the missile. You don't simply press a red circular button and the missile takes off. If any component or mission critical LRU would have malfunctioned, the C2 element of the TEL wouldn't clear the missile for launch.

3. Then there is the issue of missile trajectory planning , waypoints and target data in terms of coordinates, 3D profile for dsmac matching , attack angle, azimuth and a host of other parameters that need to be fed into the missile before the missile is actually ready for launch. An accidentally launched missile won't fly for ___ kms inside Indian airspace , then make a right turn and head for Pakistan

4. The missile was flying in airspace controlled by Bhatinda . Despite falling in an obscure town with acres of empty space, the missile managed to fall on a warehouse/cold storage / structure and destroy it . The missile could have simply fallen on an empty field devoid of any features. We have seen some Russian missiles going off target and hitting open ground in Ukraine despite being carefully targetted at militarily significant targets and here we have a missile which despite being accident launched managed to destroy a building . This is just awesome.

5. Had the missile been inert without any warhead, it wouldn't have brought down that entire structure. It would just have made a big gaping hole in the walls and then crash to the ground. This was an armed missile.

6. The Pakistanis didn't have any clue as to what had happened and what had hit them on 9th . It's very likely that their AD centres didn't get a good track or failed to detect the Brahmos missile throughout its flight envelope. Only when the explosion happened and locals had gathered around , did they know that something has indeed happened. Even then it took them an entire day to find out what it was . And only after that did ISPR held a press conference.

7. Had it really been an incident of malfunctioning equipment and accidental launch , we would have informed them on 9th itself. Heck, we could have come out with a press release on 10th itself just after their press conference that our missile had malfunctioned and we were sorry for the incident .

Instead we waited for an entire day and then came out with a really concise and short press statement. Doesn't it ring any bell ?

8. The MoD had postponed Depexpo 22 and Vayu Shakti indefinitely just before this accident launch. You can explain the postponement of Def due to the absence of many international OEM due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine but how will explain the cancellation of Vayushakti especially when IAF aircrafts had been going about their demos and practise runs for a week before March 7 when suddenly we heard that the exercise had been postponed.

9. Hadn't ISPR not held a press conference and disclose the series of events , we wouldnt have known. The GoI had no intention of revealing this. Usually when there is a misfire or an accident that involves a missile mistakenly crossing over into enemy territory, people usually inform their neighbour at the earliest . We on the other hand took our own sweet time and then just said sorry. This is an example of a very non chalant casual attitude . As if we don't give a damn.

Connect the dots.

I want to add two points
1, Brahmose navigation system uses input from three satellite based navigation systems using G3OHM chip and if single one jammed or not getting signal, other two will work, third party involvement is very difficult after launch, expet some bug in MAL control software before launch.
2 Even it is not armed with Warhead i remember 290 Km version Brahmose allways contains additional fuel in that, like it's original version, range is just caped with software only, so after impact the remaining fuel will burne all the electronics in it.Sure that additional fuel will be there because the missile just travelled less than 200km.
3 Recent Brahmose tests and release of target place picture also pointing this is not unintentional.. government is just downplaying the incident to reduce international reaction.

 

[hit&run]

Are we tilting towards plausible deniability + regret?

Post Balakot we waited for Pakistanis to react first then took the credit.

I remember a talk about being in a sweet spot of pre-emption which Pakistan will deny.

 

[maximus777]

I say whack them and then throw some money at them. Chances are they will turn around and bend over again for the next one.

 

[Moroboshi]

If it was to kill HVT why to use Brahmos
I don't think that we will use expensive unit on a bearded mulla probably scratching his balls on a sofa

"It's not about money, it's about sending a message"

- Joker

 

[indian_blues]

Anyone located the site in google maps?

 

[thebakofbakchod]

I wonder what 200D chess our genius military will do next after shooting down our own helicopter and killing the CDS and now this. Accidently fire a nuke into Beijing? The rot within the military is far too deep which is why such incidents keep happening

 

[thebakofbakchod]

Anyway it was impossible to cover this up since this was recovered from the crash-site

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

Excellent find. This pretty much confirms that a warhead was in fact used.

Given Porki construction kwality , just the kinetic energy of the missile would have been sufficient to flatten the houses or warehouses. It does look like a misfire. Most likely a user trial of some short range missile (probably not Brahmos) which was supposed to hit somewhere in the Thar desert developed snags midway and veered into Porki territory and kinetically took out the sheds. A warhead would have devastated the area and there would be burnt marks and everything. The picture shows the after effects of shock waves caused due to kinetic impact. Interesting that we did not self destruct the missile but continued to let it travel. Most likely at some point, someone said it has already malfunctioned and there is deniability, so why not just let it fly and see if the Porkis can track. And looks like Porki AD did not work or they don’t have the capability. The story is the same as in Balakot - we can hit you in the hinterland of porkland and not just PoK.
The other thing is how can you calculate there won’t be casualties? Even kinetic impacts of very fast missiles can kill people, cattle etc. So that means it was a technical snag as we would have to explain why we sent a missile to deliberately kill civilians. So this scenario is unlikely.

 

[Maveli]

Destroyed area measures atleast 50mx50m... not possible without a warhead... just with kinetic kinetic impact... not possible

Rest about flight profile... at first it flew parallel to paki border & then took a right turn & maintained straight flight... in my opinion it took right turn at a point from where flying very low was possible bcoz of suitable topography.

If it was at low altitude, how did the Paki's determine its flightpath? Is their radar that good?
Or did it fly at 40k feet and fall out of the sky when it ran out of fuel?

 

[The Shrike]

Putin babushka's playbook - 56D is playing major KGB-esque mind games!

This guy usually posts snarky comment, but is probably too mindblown to say anything other than "OMG" (that too an atheist communist).

 

[thebakofbakchod]

If it was at low altitude, how did the Paki's determine its flightpath? Is their radar that good?
Or did it fly at 40k feet and fall out of the sky when it ran out of fuel?

We should always assume it is. Who knows what sort of Chinese tech they got. Tracking a missile while hard is still the easy part

 

[Love Charger]

Anyway it was impossible to cover this up since this was recovered from the crash-site

It was a brahmos

 

[nixin]

Anyway it was impossible to cover this up since this was recovered from the crash-site

The BrahMos partnership can show the way for Make in India programmes

Brahmos Aerospace, The Makers of Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, which completes 20 years on February 12, has many firsts to its credit.

forceindia.net

 

[Maveli]

We should always assume it is. Who knows what sort of Chinese tech they got. Tracking a missile while hard is still the easy part

If they can track a dirt skimming missile from 100kms away, we are screwed.

Something went boom, they investigated and found a Brahmos. They didn't know how it got there. They probably pulled up radar tapes and connected the dots. That's why it took them so long to say anything. Sad thing is, we probably didn't know how it got there either. That's why it took us so long to say anything.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by incompetence.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

One important decision India has to make is - how can we quickly manufacture top quality arms and export it to countries surrounding China? Time to tell China that we will supply deadly arms to Vietnam should they continue to prop up these Porki hijdas. India must get into the habit of drawing red lines like the Chinese do. We should have our own CAATSA to ban Chinese companies from doing business in India if they supply arms to India’s enemies like Porkland. Either that or start supplying our own arms to China’s enemies. You cannot be passive anymore.

 

[fire starter]

Pigs killed.

 

[ThE BrOkEn HeArT]

Pakistanis are being awfully quiet right now

They’ve taken india to the UN or recalled their HC for a lot less

if I was Pakistani I’d be most disappointed with how all of this has played out- India has dictated the play at every stage, even apparently some Indian officials called up their counterpart in Pakistan and told them to take it easy as this was just a malfunction

a lot of war gaming scenarios will be played out on the back of this and this validated or disproved plenty of assumptions planners may have had

since 2019 india really has been able to push these guys around with pretty much no blowback, it’s quite a departure from before

India is playing 'Money Heist' with Pakistan.

 

[RoaringTigerHiddenDragon]

The BrahMos partnership can show the way for Make in India programmes

Brahmos Aerospace, The Makers of Brahmos supersonic cruise missile, which completes 20 years on February 12, has many firsts to its credit.

forceindia.net

View attachment 143513

Hmmm….reading this, looks like it was a Brahmos. Maybe an older generation that misfired. I still don’t get why a Brahmos was tested from Sirsa so as to land in the thar desert. Clearly risk of failure and veering into enemy territory is there. Maybe it was plain incompetence - after all , the IN left the submarine’s hatch door open and IAF crashed a $100 million Boeing plane within the first month. And ISRO failed several launches. Maybe there is something wrong with the entire systems. Maybe as the government is privatizing more and more things, these internal babus and corrupt military people are sabotaging things. Has happened before. So who the f$&k knows?