How The Surgical Strikes Have Altered Pakistan’s Proxy War Game
The Indian affiliates of Pakistan’s jihadi-military complex have been warning their fellow Indians about unknown outcomes of our pro-active action. The use of irregulars not only detracts the Pakistan Army from professionalism, it also infuses a sense of exaggerated sense of self-importance and military prowess amongst the jihadis.
They come to view themselves as equals, if not superior to the professional army. The key motivating factors for such groups can never be the same as those of a professional army, and therefore, their marriage in the long run is bound to be counter-productive, rather disastrous. It can be stated that there would be no other outcome beyond what India has already experienced in the last three decades.
Pakistan has already reached the level of ‘suicide bombers’ and cannot go beyond.
The future of Pakistan is bleak.
Through the 1980s and mid-1990s, the three pillars of Pakistan were the military, the prime minister, and the President referred to as ‘Troika’. This has undergone a fundamental change. The jihadi outfits have become the second most important pillar of Pakistan after the military. A blow to this pillar could be fatal for the country.
As far as the diplomatic isolation of Pakistan is concerned, India has never been geopolitically in a more envious position.
The reference to proofs and evidence of Pakistan’s jihadi attacks on India is basically for consumption of the Western world. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces, led by America in Afghanistan, has been an equal if not worse sufferer of Pakistan’s jihadi depredations in Afghanistan.
The NATO has lost more than 5,000 security personnel at the hands of jihadis orchestrated by Pakistan. Majority of the terrorist attacks in most parts of the world have Pakistani footprints. All South Asian nations have been buffeted by Pakistan’s jihadi complex. Bangladesh in particular has experienced murderous machinations by Pakistan’s jihadis.
As a last resort, the agents of proxy war in both the countries have been flaunting the Russia and China card. The import of Pakistan-Russia military exercise was highly exaggerated. In international relations, it is seldom the syndrome that ‘either you are with me or against me’. Moreover, India is not an insignificant market for Russian military equipment. Geopolitics also dictates that since Russia has now bounced back into reckoning in West Asia, it would not be comfortable with another player in the region by way of Gwadar (CPEC).
Given the territorial embrace that China has made with Pakistan by way of China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), it is a foregone conclusion that it will support Pakistan indirectly and not directly. There would be ‘watery threats’ and indirect support for ‘Masood Azhar’ at the United Nations by China. Also being hyperbolised is the probable Brahmaputra threat by China. It needs to be mentioned that 80 per cent of the catchment area of Brahmaputra River is in India. India need not be discomfited by this well-expected Chinese reaction, after all, it has to accommodate concerns of its client state. Moreover, China with its current limited global strategic reach is known to cultivate, create and flaunt rogue states – first North Korea and now Pakistan.
Nevertheless, the dilemma for China would be that if it allows the jihadi groups to flourish in Pakistan, leave alone the threat to its Xinjiang province, even CPEC will not be successful. The worst manifestation of the ongoing CPEC project is that in Pakistan, it has become a volatile mix of expectations, jihadism, insurgency and big power concerns. It is precisely for this reason that consequent to the Indian spark, the demand for Balochistan independence has acquired momentous proportion. The insurgency in Afghanistan has rendered Pashtun in a volatile and destabilised state. Operation Zarb-e-Azb has made matters worse. The clamour of Pashtunistanis is acquiring unprecedented violent overtones.
The bane of Pakistan is its founder, Jinnah. Jinnah may have been a brilliant lawyer, but he was a man of skewed intellect. His ambition and hatred for his motherland India was overriding, otherwise, he would have never underestimated the pull of ethnicity over religion. East Pakistan went away to become Bangladesh, how can this story end here? The artificiality of the geographical construct called Pakistan is bound to give away.
The Indian response to the proxy war in the last few months in strategy, diplomacy, and now the military has unhinged Pakistan. The narrative has changed. The Western world must realize that had India not carried out the high level of attrition of Pakistan-sponsored jihadis in Kashmir in the last three decades, so many 9/11s would have struck them. Had India not done so, jihadis would have invaded the Western world like pests.
While detracting India from responding to Pakistan’s jihadi proxy war by invoking ‘nuclear flashpoint’, the Western world would do well to conjure the very probable prospect of nuclear weapons landing in the hands of the jihadi outfits. In the latter scenario, the most sinister threat would be to the Western countries. The West, therefore, has to thank India on many counts.
It is nobody’s idea to suggest that Pakistan would put an immediate stop to jihadi misadventures against India. The difference now will be the unpredictability of nature, place, and level of Indian response. Pakistan’s deniability henceforth will be met by overwhelming overt Indian action. The era of deniability and cycle of terror is now a thing of past for Pakistan.
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