Found something interesting on Peedeef,So sharing it here for discussion,Enjoy.
Hello! posting on an alt account for privacy reasons but I am an Chinese American college student majoring in international studies at JHU SAIS. I have translated and summarized one of the most popular posts on Zhihu (China's Quora) about Chinese- Indian relations. I feel this is useful information to share as it encapsulates the CCP's view of India (accurate based on my personal links to CCP) and explains why China behaves so antagonistically. This post is LONG but is still much shorter than the original. The original has 9 chapters, chapters 5 - 9 focusing on Chinese military strategy in a Sino- Indian war. In this post I have focused on the politics and reasons for conflict described in chapters 1-4. I have left out most of the historical background, Chinese idioms and cultural aspects in an effort to shorten the post. The most important parts are in bold and italicized, I would highly recommend reading those. Feel free to pm with any questions. Apologies in advance for mistranslations and/or incorrect information.
If this post gets enough attention, I will post all the chapters and maybe even the full translation. if you want to read the full post I have attached the link. Google translate is 70% accurate and there are a few very important errors.
Link to post:
https://www.zhihu.com/question/421319290/answer/1812313401
Chapter One, India is big trouble for China in the future
Today, China faces significant problems on its borders, totally surrounded by strong neighbors. The United States has unprecedented strength and continues to threaten national security. Russia. although it has a small population, has a large geographical advantage . Although Sino-Russian relations are good in the short term, it could be a big variable in the long run. However, an opponent with a great potential threat but easily underestimated is India. India is very weak on the surface, but has a greater potential for development. If you take the long-term view, India is likely to be a significant power in the future.
One reason many people like to laugh at India is that in the 1980s, the economic strength of China and India was evenly matched, but after China’s reform and opening up, China’s economy grew rapidly, and China’s GDP is now five times that of India. This shows how slow India’s economic growth is. However, if you compare it on a global scale, you can actually find that India’s economic growth is not slow. Since 1980, India’s GDP has increased 30 fold. In contrast, the GDP of other developing countries except China and India has only increased 10 fold, and the GDP of developed countries has even increased 8 fold. To a certain extent, it is not that India’s economic development is slow, but that China’s economic growth is too fast.
China’s economic achievements conceal India’s economic miracle. If there is no comparison with China, then India’s economic growth can be considered a global miracle.
On the other hand, China’s rapid economic growth has not come without a price. Due to strict family planning rules, China today faces the problem of aging and declining birthrate at the same time. India has not implemented such a strict family planning policy, and the proportion of young people is very high. Although this has dragged down economic growth, India’s demographic dividend advantage has become increasingly prominent in the past ten years. We know that young people are the main creators of social wealth, and the number of young people has a great influence on the economic strength of China. To some extent, if the number of young people in India is twice that of China in 2050, even if India’s per capita output is only half of China by then, India’s GDP will be on par with China and become the world’s top three economies.
A power of more than one billion people can never be underestimated, although India is a very weak country at the moment, and the lower limit is low; but the future development potential is very large, the upper limit is very high. Although China is now flourishing, if one day the country is facing an aging crisis, on one hand, fewer young people lead to a decline in the number of soldiers, on the other hand, the country has been undergoing such a crises a long period of time, the national willingness to fight is reduced. At that time, it will be much more difficult to deal with a potentially rising India than it is now.
Chapter Two, the conflicts between China and India can hardly be reconciled
It is difficult to reconcile the China-India conflict, just as it was difficult to reconcile the China-Soviet conflict before the collapse of the Soviet Union. The underlying reasons are not explained by ideology, territorial disputes, cultural differences, or foreign policy.
In the 1960s and 1980s, China’s greatest threat was from none other than the Soviet Union. If a torrent of Soviet tanks goes south from Mongolia, it will hit Beijing within a week. Since ancient times, the greatest external threat to China has been from the North. And in modern times, Soviet Russia has assumed this role. During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was unprecedentedly powerful and had nothing better than a torrent of armored tanks. This was similar to ancient cavalry, fast and ruthless, able to tear a hole in the opponent's defenses in a very short time
The key issue is that during the Cold War, the Soviet Union maintained absolute geographic superiority . The Soviet Union not only controlled the outer northeast, but also Mongolia. When the Soviet Union did not control Mongolia, if the Soviet Union wanted to attack China, it still had to go south from the Northeast Plain and enter North China after conquering the Shanhai pass. But with control of the Mongolian Plateau, the Soviet Union faced much fewer obstacles when attacking China. Soviet tanks only had to cross the Yinshan Mountains to enter Hebei. After that, Beijing would be basically insecure to defend. In this case, China may only have to move south like the Central Plains dynasties in the past, and use the southern rivers as a line to fight against the Soviet army.
This is the fundamental reason why China would fight with the Soviet Union during the Cold War and cooperate with the West without hesitation. As long as Mongolia is controlled by the Soviet Union, China’s national defense cannot be assured. Thanks to an independent mongolia, China and Russia are moving towards reconciliation, in the long run, due to Russia's natural geopolitical suppression, it is still a potential threat, and China and Russia still guard against each other.
Taking the example of the Soviet Union, we can understand why Sino-Indian relations are difficult to reconcile.
The geography of India is very similar to China The main population centers of China are on the North China Plain, and Beijing is the throat into the North China Plain. The population centers of India are on the Ganges Plain, and New Delhi is the throat to enter the Ganges Plain. The south has similar broken terrain and a long coastline, and the southeast has a large island like Sri Lanka.
But compared to China, India's geography is extremely bad. All of the core areas of India are in the hands of other countries (Indus river, Lower Ganges, Siri Lanka). India does not have many natural barriers. The coastline is too long and it is easy to be attacked by east and west, while China only needs to defend the east. This makes India very easy to invade as seen in history.
This is the reason why India invaded Tibet in the 1960s and maintained a relatively high military expenditure for a long time. It cannot be said that India is a militaristic state, but because in the context of geographical disadvantages, it can only maintain military balance by spending more than its opponents.
For India, China is the biggest geo-threat. This is because China not only controls the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, but also is an ally with Pakistan. Once China and India go to war, India will almost certainly lose without external intervention. India’s Ganges plain is in danger and is at a great disadvantage. The geographical disadvantages of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the alliance between China and Pakistan are part of the reasons why China-India relations cannot be reconciled.
But in the long run, even if China and India can complete the territorial conflicts and China and Pakistan no longer are allies, it will be difficult for China and India to reconcile completely. The reason is that both China and India want to become superpowers and leaders in Asia, inevitably leading to strategic collisions.
In the future, if both China and India want to rise up and become leaders in Asia, conflicts of interest will inevitably arise. The key point of the conflict is Southeast Asia, the backyard of both counties. Southeast Asia is extremely rich in resources and possesses the oil and rubber needed for war. On the other hand, Southeast Asia is characterized by scattered power and small countries. Forming battlegrounds for any major countries. China and India both have significant cultural and historical ties with the region. Southeast Asia has many Chinese and Indians. To a certain extent, Southeast Asia is to China and India what Latin America is to the United States, Eastern Europe is to Germany and Russia, and North Korea is to China and Japan. They belong to the range of interests that must be contested.
Therefore, if both China and India become stronger in the future, they are likely to fiercely compete for dominance in Southeast Asia. On land, India can rely on the northeast states to infiltrate Myanmar and radiate to the Indochina Peninsula. On the sea, India can rely on the Andaman Islands to increase its influence on the Southeast Asian islands. This is similar to China. On land, China relies on the Trans-Asian Railway/Pan-Asian Highway to increase its radiation to the Indochina Peninsula, and on the sea, it relies on the Nansha Islands to increase its influence on Southeast Asia.
Therefore, Sino-Indian relations are difficult to reconcile unless three conditions are met: 1. China withdraws from Tibet, or the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau becomes a neutral buffer area similar to Mongolia; 2. China abandons support for Pakistan; 3. China and India abandon the competition for Southeast Asia. None of these three items can be done by China. Tibet is an indivisible part of our territory. Although India has long supported "Tibet independence", it is impossible for China to give up Tibet. It is also impossible for China to give up support for Pakistan, Because once you let India unify South Asia, India will be the spearhead aimed at our country. Even more difficult to deal with. It is also impossible to give up Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is our natural economic backyard, and has economic and military dual significance.
In the short term, the main contradictions are 1 and 2, but as India's national strength over Pakistan get bigger and bigger, we cannot rule out that one day Pakistan will be completely defeated by India or even annexed, by that time China's direct geopolitical threat to India will be greatly reduced, if India can also annex Nepal, Bhutan and other countries, then it will have a pivot point in the Tibetan Plateau, and it will be difficult for China to go over the Tibetan Plateau to directly invade India. At this time, the Sino-Indian territorial dispute will no longer be the main conflict, and the main conflict will change to a struggle for spheres of influence.
The nature of India's threat is the same as that of Russia and Japan; it is a territorial and existential threat. India, on the one hand, has ambitions to encroach on our territory, which is different from the United States, which focuses on economic interests. India also has attempts to dominate South Asia and encroach on Southeast Asia. When China is strong, both the United States and India will adopt a hostile policy toward China; but when China is in decline, the United States may relax its restrictions , but India will not. If one day India is strong and China is weak, then India will intensify its aggression against our territory and even threaten the safety of our national life and property.
Chapter Three, the dilemma of two-front warfare, China does not occupy an absolute advantage on the Sino-Indian border
The Chinese front is too long and needs to be guarded separately.
To the east is Japan and South Korea, to the southeast is Taiwan that has not yet returned, to the south are the Southeast Asian countries with territorial disputes, and to the north is Russia, which has occupied the most territory in China in history. In the west of our country, the situation is more complicated. There are religious and ethnic conflicts in Xinjiang and Tibet, and India is eyeing them. This means that although our country is strong, it needs to be guarded by separate troops
Division of Chinese theaters and deployment of forces:
Northern Theater -- 3 army groups, North Sea Fleet-- Russia, Korean Peninsula
Eastern Theater -- 3 army groups, East China Sea Fleet, half of the air force-- U.S., Japan, Taiwan
Southern Theater -- 2 army groups, South China Sea Fleet-- United States, Southeast Asian countries
Central Theater -- 3 armies-- Guards the capital and reserve for other war zones
Western Theater-- 2 armies-- India
Division of Indian military districts and deployment of forces:
Northern Military District -- 3 army groups -- Kashmir, the western section of the China-India border
Western Military Region -- 4 army groups -- Middle section of the China-India border
Eastern Military Region -- 3 armies, East Sea Fleet -- Eastern section of the China-India border
Central Military Region -- 1 army -- Guarding the capital
Southwest Military Region-- 1 army --- Pakistan
Southern Military Region -- 2 armies, West Sea Fleet -- Guarding South India
India can use most of its military power against China. The Indian army has 1.15 million troops and has a total of 14 armies, of which 10 are dedicated to fighting China, accounting for 70% of its army. As for the navy, when a war breaks out between China and India, if the United States and India have good relations, India can send its entire navy to the Andaman Islands to block the Strait of Malacca. While most of the Chinese navy will be deployed in the Pacific to confront the United States and Japan. In terms of air force, northern India has a flat terrain and numerous airports, which can accommodate all the fighters of the Indian Air Force. However, there are not enough airports in Tibet to park a large number of fighters.
If a large-scale war breaks out between China and India, how much force can be used to fight against India?
It may be difficult for China to deploy troops on a large scale to support the battlefield, because each army group has clear responsibilities. Once a large number of troops are deployed, it will inevitably lead to weakness and give other countries a chance. For example, the 82nd Army is used to guard the capital , the 82nd Army is equipped to fight on the Great Plains, its plateau combat ability is not a strong point
This means that once a large-scale war breaks out between China and India, we may only be able to mobilize 5 army groups to fight, while the Indian side can mobilize at least 10 armies in response.Due to restrictions on the throughput of Tibet’s airports, the number of soldiers that can be sent to Tibet is also relatively limited, and most of the air force still has to stay in the east to confront the United States and Japan. As the Strait of Malacca is controlled by other countries, the possibility of our navy crossing the Strait of Malacca and fighting the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean is currently unlikely. Therefore, theoretically speaking, China would have to use 40% of the army, less than half of the air force, and close to 0% of the navy in the Sino-Indian war against 70% of the Indian army, close to 100% of the navy and air force. Currently, I believe that if there is no external interference, China can defeat India with only half of its military power. however, In the most likely situation for war, although our military is far stronger than India, it does not occupy an absolute advantage.
In short, in the context of a potential encounter, China has several major disadvantages against India:
1. China's main strategic focus is in the east, 70% of its military power will be used to confront the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, and it will not be able to spare a hand to deal specifically with India.
2. Since 2016, the United States has gradually locked China as its number one competitor. If China starts a war against India, if it is a protracted war, the United States and the West will inevitably intervene. At that time, there may be wars in Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula, and the South China Sea. Creating a 2 fronts situation
3. 60% of China's oil imports pass through the Strait of Malacca, and a large amount of export trade also goes through this place. Once fighting against India begins, India or the US may take advantage by blockading the Strait of Malacca. China's crude oil reserves can only support 6-12 months during the war
4. The risks and pressures of the two- front warfare can be handled in a war against India. However, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau is complex and the railway cannot support the logistics required for large-scale military operations.
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