A lot of new information about Mig-29s role on the 27th have surfaced, apparently India scrambled two upgraded Mig-29UPGs as well as additional Mig-21s and PAF fled once their numerical superiority started to dwindle. Some of my own thoughts here, I remember a lot controversy as to the SU-30s not firing at F-16. By now it’s clear the F-16s had the altitude advantage, higher altitude means greater missile range, apart from that the SU-30MKIs could not fire off missiles because they were in a defense position trying to evade AMRAAMS. The two SU-30MKIs had a mission to confront the PAF and deny them from intruding and targeting Indian installations. Being heavily outnumbered 4:2 or 8:2 depending on how you look at it, and not having the luxury of airborne AWACS the SU-30s still accomplished their task and held off a much larger enemy. It’s interesting how Pakistan claims they downed an SU-30 but could not shoot down the second Mig-21 or any Mirages. If anything it’s an embarrassment for Pakistan, they could not down Mig-21 Alpha 1 until it was about 7km inside Pakistani airspace, the other Mig-21 Alpha 2 also breached Pakistani airspace and Pakistan probability fired at it but missed.
Aditya_V posted this on another forum. Very detailed and likely mostly accurate account of what happened
That was the key, the sequence of events most probably was this all IST
1) PAF Mirage 5 and JF-17 launch h-4 and 8- 83REK bombs trying to hit hit IA targets- 2 IAF chiefs have now stated PAF came to hit IA targets, with the 2 M-2000 and 2 Su-30 on Patrol, they probably launched these weapons at max range and without the Mirage 5 flying close 10-15KM radio range of the H-4, the last part the H-4's could not be guided to the IA targets. This was probably Launch at 10:08 and by 10:15 PAF realized these missed by a mile.
2) PAF then restorted to the 2nd stage of their plan, people like Squadron leader Hassan Siddiqui came in fast at High altitude with full afterburners while other F-16's were shadow boxing with the Su-30MKI and launched 4-5 AMRAAMS at them expecting a kill, these pushed the Su-30MKI's to go into tactical maneuvers to start dodging the AMRAAMs.
3) Squadron leader Minty Agarwal seeing the situation asks the IAF to start scrambling, 2 Mig 21 Bisons from Srinagar Budgam AFB on ORP are prabably the first to scramble.
4) Seeing the Su-30MKI's doing evasive maneuvers and unable to engage a group of 3 F-16's with the lead F-16 twin seater come in close to the LOC to bomb Brigade HQ at Rajouri, while they are targeting, the SAAB ereye "VIGIL' warns them 2 bogies have suddenly appeared over the Pir Panjal, the lead F-16 quickly releases a LGB and all 3 engaging afterburner to go back.
5) Using the superior straight line speed the 2 Mig-21 Bisons catch up and get the 2 seater F-16 near Charhoi with a R-73 missile and then turn to engage the other F-16's to possibly get another kill. this happens at 10:22 AM
6) While the 2 Mig 21 Bisons are engaging other F-16's and facing in a Southwesterly direction and about 45-50 seconds after the 1st F-16 is down a F-16 coming from the Westerly direction and probably outside the Kopyo radar cone and the RWR angle of the Mig-21 Bisons an F-16 probably flown by Wing Commander Noman Ali gets Alpha-1 Wing Commander Abhinandan's with an Amraam- who probably has a tone and about to launch his 2nd R-73 missile. This happens at 10:23 AM
7) Alpha-2 Wingman of Wing commander of Abhinandan who was guarding him from a rear attack is now ordered to get back to this side of the LOC while the F-16 now is targeting him, he now turns and heads towards Srinagar Budgam AFB using afterburners , A F-16 approaches using afterburners approaches to the edge of the LOC a few Kilometers north west of were Wing Commander Abhinandan was hit and Launches an AMRAAM. You can see from the Mirpur video that after an aircraft is coming down (totally different from the Tadpole shaped burning fuselage shot in the videos at Charhoi in POK and Tanamandi in J&K)- an aircraft is turning and engaging after afterburners at 15 sec to 22 secs and heading North East, another aircraft comes in after 1 minute and launches a missile a few Kilometers from the Mig 21 Bison coming down. 1 minute afterburner of a Mig 21 Bison should mean a head start of around 20-23KM. This probably too much for the AMRAAM to catch up in a Tail Chase engagement and falls in Chassana Police station limits of Reasi District, it is this particular AMRAAM which is brought to New Delhi for display.
8 ) By 10:25 AM, the Mirage 5 and and the JF-17's have landed at their airbases , the F-16's are now ordered to get back to PAF bases with full afterburners, the SAAB erieye aircraft also now deceides to land at Chaklala.
9) 4 Mig-21 Bisons from Srinagar Budgam, 2 Mig 29's from Adampur , Avenger -1 and Avenger -2 Su30MKI, 2 M-2000 I/TI are now in the air but now there are no PAF aircraft to do battle, they are all well within Pakistan or have landed at PAF bases. It has taken 5-10 minutes IAF has now control of the Air.
PAF probably correctly predicted without Political clearance IAF- IA even if they control the air cannot do another strike immediately and it was very unlikely. PA knew this thats why thier T-80 Tanks in Mirpur area all left thier Barracks and decided to mingle with civilians messing up the roads in the area, they realized thier air cover was nanga and they were juicy targets.
The only reason the PAF decided to respond was not because of Balakot but the best laid plans at Chakoti and Muzaffarabad area in POK got destroyed on 26-Feb-19 morning. Our MEA for international opinion tried to omit these 2 strikes.