GoI should not miss the opportunity to rid Maldives of Yameen NOW

AMCA

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GoI should not miss the opportunity to rid Maldives of Yameen NOW.
Bharat Karnad
9 hours ago




(The arrest and bloodying of Maldives opposition leaders)



The BJP government of Narendra Modi will rue not ousting Abdullah Yameen in Male now when it has the opportunity, the Maldivan opposition and people, and just cause on its side for doing so. That country’s supreme court has ruled Yameen’s imprisonment of the opposition party — Malidives Democratic Party (MDP) leaders illegal, a judgement that ipso facto voids the trumped up charges against Yameen’s political adversary and India’s friend — Mohammad Nasheed. It shows that between the political opposition and the Maldivan people, they have had enough of the idiosyncratic and authoritarian Yameen, who seems intent in depositing Maldives into China’s lap.

Nasheed has been vocal in propagating from his exile in Sri Lanka India’s right to replace Yameen, if necessary by forceful means. In fact Nasheed has gone so far as to say that Maldives is in “Ïndia’s ocean” and that China has no role in it, and definitely not in his country. This reference to Ïndia’s ocean is a response to a Chinese admiral who some years back warned that “The Indian Ocean is not India’s ocean”.

Yameen has been a thorn in India’s side and has for the last few years played Modi for the idiot he thinks the Indian Prime Minister is. Every time the situation reaches a crisis point — the last time recently when he ordered the police physically to bar the opposition members of Parliament from voting against his proposal to lease some atolls in his country to China, which would have ended that particular political pro-China initiative, he gauges Delhi’s reaction and just when he thinks the Indian govt may act, moseys over to Delhi. He did this and made peace with Modi. It is not certain what assurances the Indian PM was given by Yameen, but Delhi ended up doing nothing. Naturally Yameen has grown bolder, and has indicated he would disregard the court’s ruling and, Trump-like, change the political complexion of the supreme court by appointing his friends to the Court to ensure there are no legal challenges to his reign of terror hereafter. He is thus setting himself up as President for life of Maldives and China’s pet poodle in the region. If this isn’t provocation enough for Delhi, it is hard to know what is.

It is time for India to sort things out and for Modi to reassert India’s prime interest in having a friendly Maldivan regime at any cost — meaning without Yameen and his PPM anywhere in the picture. Yameen ought to be removed permanently from the scene. But Modi seems to be falling into the familiar do-nothing mode — the calling card of MEA and Indian diplomacy; perhaps concerting with the US to see what can be done. This is the WRONG THING for him to DO. He should without further ado immediately order a brace of frigates with a MARCOS contingent embarked on them to move post-haste to the Maldivan waters, disembark the MARCOS with full authority to disarm the Maldives police and what forces that country has and, along with a unit of army’s paracommando if needed, arrest Yameen and family and leadership elements of the corrupt ruling Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), fly in Nasheed on special aircraft from Colombo into Male, and hand over power to him. The Indian forces can remain to assist the new Nasheed dispensation purge the local administration, police, and forces of Yameen and PPM sympathisers. And as a first order of his business ensure that all agreements with China are summarily scrapped.

There’s no time to lose. MEA’s habit of slow and ponderous pondering can be left to after this commando action to forever remove the Yameen threat from Male. Modi is increasingly being seen especially in the external realm as clinging to the US apronstrings, fulminating against Pakistan, but talking and amity and peace with China, when the priority should be consider to China the main threat and take it head on. Xi, like his predecessors in office, is good at pursuing Sun Tzu’s favourite tactic of playing up strengths and hiding weaknesses. West of Malacca, China should be made to actually feel the heat of its being on India’s turf. This India has never done.

This is how the international power game is played, not liaising with some big power or the other to see what’s the best way out of an increasingly difficult situation for India. Should Modi fail to act for any reason at all and permit Yameen to stay on, India may as well kiss Maldives good-bye and prepare to see a full-fledged Chinese naval base a stone’s throw away from the Indian mainland. It will be an ironic denouement considering all the brouhaha over Gwadar and the fact of a self-confessed “nationalist” BJP government being in power and Modi in command.

The question is: Is Modi alpha-male only for show, and at the hustings, or will he also act to protect India’s security and strategic interests?


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AMCA

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Indibomber

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GOI should not interfere, let that shithole of a country burn and sink within the Indian ocean.
We must destroy this Chinese Naval base and remove the current President. This nation will become another thorn in India's butt just like Pak or Nepal for that matter. Besides chini Influence they receive major funding from KSA and organisations like Bilad Al Sham Media (BASM) can and will cause major problem for India i terms or terrorism. Porkies and chinse can easily leverage these Jihadi scums for terror in India.

We must send troops if required and ensure a pro India govt there.
 

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AMCA

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Is Modi Carrying Out A Coup In The Maldives?
Written by Andrew Korybko on 4th February 2018



This ultra-geostrategic South Asian archipelago state is front and center in the Chinese-Indian New Cold War.

The Maldivian military surrounded parliament today and reportedly arrested several individuals just days after the Supreme Court ruled that 9 opposition figures would be freed from custody and have their terrorism cases retried.

The highest law in the land tried to carry out a “deep state” coup by releasing these individuals and thereby allowing the opposition to gain a parliamentary majority and potentially impeach President Yameen.

The long-running domestic political tensions in the country and their larger global importance were previously analyzed by the author on three occasions over nearly the past two and a half years, with the first one being a three-part article series about the late-2015 Hybrid War crisis there and the last two being a book-length article series on the Chinese-Indian New Cold War and a brief update on last summer’s simmering situation:

*November 2015: “Indian Ocean As A Prize Or Crisis Of Multipolarity?”

*June 2017: The Chinese-Indian New Cold War

*August 2017: The Maldives Crisis Is An Outgrowth Of The Chinese-Indian New Cold War

The general idea is that the country’s pivotal location astride crucial Afro-Indian Ocean trade routes makes it an object of competition between China and India, with the former incorporating it into its One Belt One Road global vision of New Silk Road connectivity while the latter wants to disrupt this relationship in order to regain its hegemonic influence over the neighboring state so as to diminish Beijing’s strategic position in this region.

The 21st-century geopolitics of the Multipolar World Order are such that India is doing the US’ bidding in “containing China” in this part of the world, helped along as it is by the game-changing 2016 LEMOA military-strategic partnership that New Delhi unprecedentedly signed with Washington in allowing each party to use one another’s military facilities on a case-by-case basis.

The trigger for the latest unrest was the Maldives signing a free trade agreement with China in December, which India loudly objected and is evidently trying to reverse by supporting a multiphase “deep state” coup in the country.

The first step was to intensify the ongoing information war against the Maldives by coordinating with the US-backed global Mainstream Media to smear the state as a “dictatorship”, after which the Supreme Court component kicked into action by suddenly changing the domestic political balance in the country and opening up the opportunities for a fast-moving “constitutional coup”.

It’s this second step that President Yameen tried to stop by ordering the military to surround parliament in order to stop any quasi-“legal” impeachment proceedings from happening, which could have created the pretext for exiled opposition leader Nasheed to claim leadership of the state and possibly even summon Indian military assistance to finalize the coup.

Having preempted that, however, there’s now a very dangerous chance that India will encourage its proxies to carry out their fallback plan of commencing a Hybrid War in the country through targeted provocations just like what happened in late 2015 with several failed assassination attempts against President Yameen and the subsequent risk of an externally supported “civil war” breaking out in the Maldives, which could potentially even see Daesh getting involved in carrying out its “trademarked” terrorist attacks.

Should that “dark scenario” not transpire and be narrowly averted just like it was nearly two and a half years ago, then the final step would be for India to lead the “international community” (the West) in trying to “isolate” the Maldives on the basis that it’s the world’s newest “pariah/rogue regime” and implementing sanctions against it and its leadership, after which New Delhi can then claim that Beijing is backing a regional “dictatorship” that “kills its own people” and is becoming a “Chinese colony/puppet”.

The outcome of this latest proxy conflict of the Chinese-Indian New Cold War will determine the Balance of Power in the Afro-Indian Ocean and whether it remains multipolar or shifts back to its previous unipolar status, as a Chinese-aligned Maldives led by President Yameen would secure these waters for the New Silk Road while an Indian-backed President Nasheed would disrupt it to New Delhi and Washington’s advantage.

The latest news is that President Yameen said that he’s considering early elections, which could temporarily defuse the crisis but need to be monitored for fraud and provocations carried out by former President Nasheed and his supporters, including any indirect “assistance” that they might receive from Daesh if it “conveniently” strikes the archipelago that has has the ignoble distinction of contributing the world’s highest per-capita number of terrorists to the group.

The situation is still fluid and anything can change in an instant, just like during the tense days of its late-2015 Hybrid War crisis, but regardless of whatever ultimately happens, it should be clear to all observers that events are being directed by India’s Research & Analysis Wing (RAW, which is allied with Mossad per the recent Indian-“Israeli” alliance that was formalized over the past 7 months) in order to advance the US’ goal of “containing China”.

DISCLAIMER: The author writes for this publication in a private capacity which is unrepresentative of anyone or any organization except for his own personal views. Nothing written by the author should ever be conflated with the editorial views or official positions of any other media outlet or institution.
 

1971ftw

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Better to not mess around like that , let them deal with their shit. If we have to kick out the Chinese influence better to do it covertly .
 

jackprince

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Better to not mess around like that , let them deal with their shit. If we have to kick out the Chinese influence better to do it covertly .
Yes, you can do it covertly when you wont have any asset in the Govt. and it will be ruled by a hostile jihadi regime. India is sending Peacekeepers worldwide and when this is an optimum opportunity, it cannot send couple of destroyers and a regiment to overthrow this anti-India regime when it will have the blessings of USA and Europe too?

Also, this kind of opportunity will never present itself as if Nasheed gets through this without trouble and retains power, he will bloody destroy the opposition. Already due to spineless management of foreign affairs by India Nasheed got away with so much. Now, India is invited by SC of Maldives and opposition is begging for Indian intervention. If we miss the opening, we will seriously rue this as it will be another Pakistan in making.

What is point of having such a huge navy and claiming to tule Indian ocean, if we cannot take a stern step in such an opportune moment?

Don't forget we have a history of meddling in Maldivian affairs through Op Cactus and our meddling was positively welcomed.
 

jackprince

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cyclops

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This is our moment to shine, India has always refrained from involving itself into matters like these.
No more.
We need to support the democratic process in Maldives and kick all these autocrats out.

This will show the world that we are ready for a new form of alliance and that we can act and not shy away.
 

JHARHEADD

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what is the possibility of India sending troops to Maldives, in case the current situation out there leads to a military rule??:india:
 

Tanmay

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Well no better chance to battle test our C17s and Vikramaditya :) airdrop a few tanks as well :p
 

Flame Thrower

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I guess the stage is being set up, just like 1971.

Once the time is ripe, send Kolkata. That should do, if not then start sailing Vikramaditya & co. towards Maldives.

If we successfully remove Yameen, then strong message would be echoed in Nepal and other minions of China.

Big blow to Xi.

All we need to do is focus on setting up the stage. Unlike Sri Lanka, we might see the stage being set up.
 

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