Global Think tank discussions on India & neighbourhood

[Indrajit]

Of course we are geopolitical rivals, but we need not be hostile rivals. Chinese role in the NSG waiver indicates that they don't necessarily take a one size fits all view on India. Trade is one area were there is scope of true realignment. Here is a massive market right next door and the best way to reduce trade deficit is to to expand trade with China. China is keen to develop its western regions and we are interested in tapping into their large Middle class. There is convergence of interest here and we need to work on this. Let's extend transport connectivity, as envisaged under the auspices of BIMSTEC, to China. Few years ago there was talks of connecting KOLKATA with Yunnan. Why not expand it and go for a Mumbai - Shanghai transport corridor. China is the gatekeeper to various power corridors that we are keen to gain admission into, NSG, NPT, UNSC and hence there is a need for greater engagement with China.

I’m sorry, we are in complete disagreement on this. The Chinese have little interest in us but as an market and zero interest in sharing geopolitical space. The Chinese are the ones blocking India everywhere, not the Americans and they have little interest in playing ball with your vision. Masood Azhar was a good example, the Chinese only budged when the US made it clear that they will shame China in the UNSC. I’m afraid I think the view held by you is completely without any kernel of possibility.

 

[IndianHawk]

Of course we are geopolitical rivals, but we need not be hostile rivals. Chinese role in the NSG waiver indicates that they don't necessarily take a one size fits all view on India. Trade is one area were there is scope of true realignment. Here is a massive market right next door and the best way to reduce trade deficit is to to expand trade with China. China is keen to develop its western regions and we are interested in tapping into their large Middle class. There is convergence of interest here and we need to work on this. Let's extend transport connectivity, as envisaged under the auspices of BIMSTEC, to China. Few years ago there was talks of connecting KOLKATA with Yunnan. Why not expand it and go for a Mumbai - Shanghai transport corridor. China is the gatekeeper to various power corridors that we are keen to gain admission into, NSG, NPT, UNSC and hence there is a need for greater engagement with China.

Problem is that we have tried. UPA govt tried hard to placate china. No action on border intrusion , no Malabar with Australia, joined both aiib and NDB etc , got into SCO.

Yet what Chinese Did in return blocking us in nsg , protecting Masood , providing Pakistan with submarine , no concession on trade front , more hostility at border.

Even Modi in beginning tried to work with china but seeing Chinese antics he had to steady course and hence doklam . Tit for tat for china.

Meanwhile USA helped us get into mtcr , Australia group , wessenar arrangement .
Is providing top tier weapons p8i , Chinook , Apache , m777 light howitzer , c17 , c130j, mh60, sea guardian , predator drone and now even weaponised version is approved for India . F404 and f414 for our domestic fighter jets also USA is not blocking a lot of Israeli tech to India.
Is helping is certifying Vikrant.

And we have continuous trade surplus with USA.
Chinese are choosing enmity not us.

Chinese want complete domination over Asia and India is an obstacle not a friend. USA wants global domination and will tolerate India hegemony in South Asia and Indian Ocean.

That is the major difference.



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[IndianHawk]

One of the authors is from Stimson centre, it used to be Pakistan’s voice up until few years back. Donno if it is still the case now. Micheal kugelman seems to have taken that role now.

If you watch the Pakistani ambassador video I posted few days back, in the Q&A you will find all pak scholars(students) are from Stimson centre.

Irrespective of what these pieces say, India’s stand is very clear. India is going to be equidistant for many years to come, Jaishankar had made it clear couple of months ago.

More over as long as India-US trade keeps growing, every thing else does not matter much.

Equidistant with Russia and USA. Not with USA and china?

One thing got my attention the above article mentions there are more people in USA working on India USA partnership then people working on Japan USA relationship.

Given the depth of Japanese USA alliance this is surprising and shows which direction USA will go in future.

The main problem I think are two fold
1. ) USA wants to confront china Russia Iran together and want India on its side but India has deep interests with Russia and even Iran and has beef only with China. Usa will have to acknowledge it .

2.) Even against China usa wants India to focus on maritime domain with powerful navy equipped with USA fighters ( hence push for emals Vishal 65k ton with f18)

And it wants interoperability between us India and Japan hence all these agreements .
But India wants a rather slow naval buildup as it's budget is constrained and land borders are far more volatile .

And now with trump USA is walking toward isolation.

But if USA wants India as ally it must allow India economic advantage of vast and mature developed market over china only then can Indian economy provide for a great defense spending which could see Indian navy expansion to project power in Chinese backyard along with USA.

Unless our economy crosses 14-15 trillion we are not projecting power outside Indian Ocean.

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[ezsasa]

One fundamental problem remains is that we need to have sufficient leverages when going into negotiations, there are limits to what you can get based on population as an attractive market.

Basically our fundamental focus should be only increasing the economy size, while working on new products or services which world needs 10-15 years from now. So basically it’s in the hands of private sector.

 

[ezsasa]

Equidistant with Russia and USA. Not with USA and china?

One thing got my attention the above article mentions there are more people in USA working on India USA partnership then people working on Japan USA relationship.

Given the depth of Japanese USA alliance this is surprising and shows which direction USA will go in future.

The main problem I think are two fold
1. ) USA wants to confront china Russia Iran together and want India on its side but India has deep interests with Russia and even Iran and has beef only with China. Usa will have to acknowledge it .

2.) Even against China usa wants India to focus on maritime domain with powerful navy equipped with USA fighters ( hence push for emals Vishal 65k ton with f18)

And it wants interoperability between us India and Japan hence all these agreements .
But India wants a rather slow naval buildup as it's budget is constrained and land borders are far more volatile .

And now with trump USA is walking toward isolation.

But if USA wants India as ally it must allow India economic advantage of vast and mature developed market over china only then can Indian economy provide for a great defense spending which could see Indian navy expansion to project power in Chinese backyard along with USA.

Unless our economy crosses 14-15 trillion we are not projecting power outside Indian Ocean.

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That article is lying when they say there are more people working on India-US than US and Japan.

US has a military bases on japan, the coordination would be much higher.

Majority of indo-Us cooperation is happening at business level not diplomatic level.

There is another lie in the article, it says people are working on DTTI for 7 years which is false. DTTI has been a flop since the start, there was never any progress.

 

[IndianHawk]

That article is lying when they say there are more people working on India-US than US and Japan.

US has a military bases on japan, the coordination would be much higher.

Majority of indo-Us cooperation is happening at business level not diplomatic level.

There is another lie in the article, it says people are working on DTTI for 7 years which is false. DTTI has been a flop since the start, there was never any progress.

Makes sense.

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[S.A.T.A]

I’m sorry, we are in complete disagreement on this. The Chinese have little interest in us but as an market and zero interest in sharing geopolitical space. The Chinese are the ones blocking India everywhere, not the Americans and they have little interest in playing ball with your vision. Masood Azhar was a good example, the Chinese only budged when the US made it clear that they will shame China in the UNSC. I’m afraid I think the view held by you is completely without any kernel of possibility.

We need to be realistic about our assessment of China. It won't serve any strategic purpose to close the door on possibility of cooperation with China. Issues like Azhar are not serious enough to burn bridges with China, on the other hand strategic and diplomatic windfall from cooperation could be immense. All I'm saying is that let's engage them seriously and not as an afterthought or as some bargain against US.

 

[S.A.T.A]

Problem is that we have tried. UPA govt tried hard to placate china. No action on border intrusion , no Malabar with Australia, joined both aiib and NDB etc , got into SCO.

Yet what Chinese Did in return blocking us in nsg , protecting Masood , providing Pakistan with submarine , no concession on trade front , more hostility at border.

Even Modi in beginning tried to work with china but seeing Chinese antics he had to steady course and hence doklam . Tit for tat for china.

Meanwhile USA helped us get into mtcr , Australia group , wessenar arrangement .
Is providing top tier weapons p8i , Chinook , Apache , m777 light howitzer , c17 , c130j, mh60, sea guardian , predator drone and now even weaponised version is approved for India . F404 and f414 for our domestic fighter jets also USA is not blocking a lot of Israeli tech to India.
Is helping is certifying Vikrant.

And we have continuous trade surplus with USA.
Chinese are choosing enmity not us.

Chinese want complete domination over Asia and India is an obstacle not a friend. USA wants global domination and will tolerate India hegemony in South Asia and Indian Ocean.

That is the major difference.



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This same US had blocked cryogenic engine sale to India, continues to forestall talks on reforming the UNSC and arms pakistan to the teeth. Transactional diplomacy has its place, but it should not foreshadow our strategic vision. India understands US penchant for disregarding Indian interest when it supplied arms to Pakistan, so we can forebear certain diplomatic undertakings of China. Don't forget we host the Tibetan govt in exile on our soil, China too has something to be peeved with India. India has to maintain its independence in foreign policy and this requires us to engage with both US and China on reasonably equal footing...

 

[ezsasa]

If any immediate action point for indo-US relationships is being done, it should be to find alternative India experts within US.

current ones are from Obama era, they don’t like Modi and they don’t like trump. They don’t care about indo-Us Relationship either, because their friends NGOs are being shutdown.

The current India experts based out of the US have not given any ground breaking ideas for future indo-US relationship for years.

It’s time to develop new talent.

 

[Indrajit]

We need to be realistic about our assessment of China. It won't serve any strategic purpose to close the door on possibility of cooperation with China. Issues like Azhar are not serious enough to burn bridges with China, on the other hand strategic and diplomatic windfall from cooperation could be immense. All I'm saying is that let's engage them seriously and not as an afterthought or as some bargain against US.

If China can let Azhar become an issue with a country where they have a $50 billion trade surplus, it shows you exactly what they think of you.

 

[IndianHawk]

This same US had blocked cryogenic engine sale to India, continues to forestall talks on reforming the UNSC and arms pakistan to the teeth. Transactional diplomacy has its place, but it should not foreshadow our strategic vision. India understands US penchant for disregarding Indian interest when it supplied arms to Pakistan, so we can forebear certain diplomatic undertakings of China. Don't forget we host the Tibetan govt in exile on our soil, China too has something to be peeved with India. India has to maintain its independence in foreign policy and this requires us to engage with both US and China on reasonably equal footing...

China is directly building a route through pok If we have govt of tibet in exile.

Yes USA acts against Indian interest at some occasions while china does so at every accession.
Btw we also act against USA buy supporting Russia and Iran.

USA provided Pakistan f16 china provided nuke + missile and now providing submarine , jf 17 version and future equipment is more likely to be Chinese than USA.

Chinese don't want strategic alliance with India they want India tied down with Pakistan in South Asia.

USA also doesn't want India to rise as peer power but still USA wants India capable of standing upto china. Hence we should favour USA more than Chinese unless Chinese reproach India with following actions
No objection to nsg.
No cpec through pok.
No border intrusion.
No Chinese submarine anywhere near Indian eez.
No more Shielding Pakistan in FATF or UN.
Reduce trade deficit by giving India prefferencial
Market access . remove non tarrif Barrier.

In absence of these steps china is behaving like an enemy and should be treated so .

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[S.A.T.A]

If China can let Azhar become an issue with a country where they have a $50 billion trade surplus, it shows you exactly what they think of you.

We Host the govt in exile for a province which GoI itself recognizes as part of China... We both have trodden each other's toes. We need to look beyond this.

 

[IndianHawk]

If any immediate action point for indo-US relationships is being done, it should be to find alternative India experts within US.

current ones are from Obama era, they don’t like Modi and they don’t like trump. They don’t care about indo-Us Relationship either, because their friends NGOs are being shutdown.

The current India experts based out of the US have not given any ground breaking ideas for future indo-US relationship for years.

It’s time to develop new talent.

Good insight . Most us experts are clueless about actual power and potential of India as all they see is dollar rated GDP figure and believe India is two - three decade away from any serious power play.

Very few people look at ppp or real actual industrial/ technological strength of India .

Then they get surprised with ASAT , nuke subs etc.
This is also probably why China's rise caught them by surprise. It was rising all along but American blinded by dollar couldn't see the writing on the wall in yuan /ppp. And now there are oblivious of Indian story .

We need to have our own pro India think tanks in USA driving our agenda and forging deep ties with anti china lobby in USA.

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[IndianHawk]

We Host the govt in exile for a province which GoI itself recognizes as part of China... We both have trodden each other's toes. We need to look beyond this.

Nope we have recognised Chinese control over Tibet before and have always supported one china policy ( before Modi) in return Chinese have never accepted full j&k as Indian Territory and are backtracking on Sikkim .

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[S.A.T.A]

China is directly building a route through pok If we have govt of tibet in exile.

Yes USA acts against Indian interest at some occasions while china does so at every accession.
Btw we also act against USA buy supporting Russia and Iran.

USA provided Pakistan f16 china provided nuke + missile and now providing submarine , jf 17 version and future equipment is more likely to be Chinese than USA.

Chinese don't want strategic alliance with India they want India tied down with Pakistan in South Asia.

USA also doesn't want India to rise as peer power but still USA wants India capable of standing upto china. Hence we should favour USA more than Chinese unless Chinese reproach India with following actions
No objection to nsg.
No cpec through pok.
No border intrusion.
No Chinese submarine anywhere near Indian eez.
No more Shielding Pakistan in FATF or UN.
Reduce trade deficit by giving India prefferencial
Market access . remove non tarrif Barrier.

In absence of these steps china is behaving like an enemy and should be treated so .

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No nation acts against another's interest, they all act in their own interest. India should too. If India has chosen itself to geopolitically handcuffed to Pakistan, neither China nor US are responsible for it. We need to de-hyphenate ourselves from Pakistan and expand our horizon. The ledger balance of what was given and what was taken will fall into place once we seriously engage China and engage them neutrally.

 

[IndianHawk]

No nation acts against another's interest, they all act in their own interest. India should too. If India has chosen itself to geopolitically handcuffed to Pakistan, neither China nor US are responsible for it. We need to de-hyphenate ourselves from Pakistan and expand our horizon. The ledger balance of what was given and what was taken will fall into place once we seriously engage China and engage them neutrally.

China and usa both played their part in making a puny Pakistan into a nuclear and strategic hassle for India. Now usa atleast wants India to move on from Pakistan but china doesn't.

We need to leverage US technology and access to USA economy to rise above South Asia.

Even Chinese rise was dependent on access to USA / Europe and Japan markets. We need that access by hook or crook .

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[S.A.T.A]

Nope we have recognised Chinese control over Tibet before and have always supported one china policy ( before Modi) in return Chinese have never accepted full j&k as Indian Territory and are backtracking on Sikkim .

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It was poor tactic to concede on recognizing Tibet while not forcing reciprocity in at least Arunachal pradesh. Anyway we can set aside disagreements on one side and forge ahead on aspects where agreement converge.

 

[ezsasa]

Good insight . Most us experts are clueless about actual power and potential of India as all they see is dollar rated GDP figure and believe India is two - three decade away from any serious power play.

Very few people look at ppp or real actual industrial/ technological strength of India .

Then they get surprised with ASAT , nuke subs etc.
This is also probably why China's rise caught them by surprise. It was rising all along but American blinded by dollar couldn't see the writing on the wall in yuan /ppp. And now there are oblivious of Indian story .

We need to have our own pro India think tanks in USA driving our agenda and forging deep ties with anti china lobby in USA.

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Americans are extremely inward looking, unless there is some issue they are focusing on mission mode.

Clue: they missed those big convoys of ISIS coming into raqqa the first time, to date I am surprised that happened.

Here I am talking about “India-experts” whose job is to give the right info to the American policy makers about current developments in India.

 

[S.A.T.A]

China and usa both played their part in making a puny Pakistan into a nuclear and strategic hassle for India. Now usa atleast wants India to move on from Pakistan but china doesn't.

We need to leverage US technology and access to USA economy to rise above South Asia.

Even Chinese rise was dependent on access to USA / Europe and Japan markets. We need that access by hook or crook .

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And if we make deft moves we can take advantage of access to worlds two largest economies. One thing is certain neither China nor US will pave the path for india to become a great power. We don't necessarily have to be with both of them, nor should we be openly against them.

 

[IndianHawk]

And if we make deft moves we can take advantage of access to worlds two largest economies. One thing is certain neither China nor US will pave the path for india to become a great power. We don't necessarily have to be with both of them, nor should we be openly against them.

Agreed but what Should we do when Chinese make moves openly against us.
As in doklam confrontation was a necessity!

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