NO WAY.
USA will NEVER take the 1700 intended. Never. They already are preparing a 6th gen light fighter, because all except you are aware this plane is far too average because of too many compromises.
The VSTOL model was a burden for the whole programm. If not....
As said x times, just see how all the others had reduced their orders : GB, Italy, Netherlands, Australia...
A max of 2000 for US and export will be nice.
The F-35 replaces the following in the USAF: all F-15s, F-16s & A-10s (there are around 1300 in total of these in active inventory) which the USAF plans to replace with 1700 F-35s. This number was achieved at taking in considering the 750 F-22 initially planned later capped to 183, the extra F-35s are to cater to this shortfall in the F-22. So while it's possible there is at times an excercise to determine how many are finally ordered, One can expect finally the USAF might order to a max of 1300 aircraft while foregoing the option for more to augment the shortage faced due to limited F-22 orders and the make up the difference with stealth drones or so.
But atleast 1300 orders for F-35 in the USAF are a minimum.
USMC need of the F-35 B is for 340 and 80 F-35C, there are planned for over 20 sqds replacing both Harriers and F-18s, the Hornets now are undergoing SLEP to absorb delays with the F-35B & F-35C. There are some new build Block 3s ordered as well. So the Navy will operate both aircraft till the oldest blocks. This entire buy is virtually inevitable since there have been no reduction in LPDs or Amphi warfare ships.
USN plans 260 F-35Cs, again oldest SH Blocks are undergoing SLEP to Block 3 to cater to delays. These will be replaced after 3K hrs. So this entire buy is inevitable since there has been no reduction in Carrier Groups or air wings.
So you see the biggest cut could from the USAF which is likely. Taking into consideration these cuts, 1300+340+80+260= 1980, this is minimum figure needed to maintain the same fleet size across the services.
There is no indication whatsoever of any kind of force shrinkage specially now with massive budgets. Plus, the economy is booming.
All orders are in a phased manner, therfore every LOT has it's own cost, usually gets cheaper. For the next 6.5 years with Trump, orders will keep coming. By 2022, production will peak at over 130 aircraft per year, price will be lower too, this is when subsequent orders will be made. I expect original estimates of 2500 to shrink a little to around 2200.
Add another 600-1000 orders from export clients and we are looking atleast at a 2600-3000+ aircraft orderbook over it's life cycle. This is inevitable taking even basic numbers. Keep in mind the F-35 will be the key pusher for may F-16 replacement programs across the world (Belgium, Netherlands, Norway, Denmark, Greece (probably a very small fleet), Crotia, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Bahrain, Egypt, Israel, Turkey, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Chile, UAE, Iraq) and the F-35 is easy logical step forward even if smaller numbers are ordered to replace the F-16s due to better war fighting ability of the F-35.