Denuclearization of Pakistan via economic sanctions

[Lonewolf]

I agree with both of this to a certain extent. Denuking has to come before direct military intervention like in GB and POK or in Balochistan. And yes only US can do it, US deep state has to want to denuclearize Pakistan.

In a way, increased instability in Balochistan may be a way to convince them that it's needed due to fear of imminent collapse. Same with in Sindh and maybe Talib in KPK. Or just Indian Americans doing policy making influence could do it like the Jewish elite do in the US for Israel.

I think what will happen is if that decision is made, they'll start with incentives like increased foreign aid, increased assistance with internal security problems like drone strikes on Talib or BLA, sanctions on india if they interfere in Balochistan, if China is asked to helpout, they may offer security guarantees (though idt China would agree esp if US is considering liberating Balochistan and Sindh through a military operation).

After that light sanctions, then heavy sanctions, and so on.

But if a red line is crossed (building of ICBMs, transfer of nuclear tech directly to Iran, collapse of the state/Jihadis taking over a base that houses nuclear weapons), then they will want a military operation, and they will want a coalition.

To be honest, I think US will want China out of this, as they'll try to pursue their strategic interests such as liberating Balochistan and Sindh to block Chinese access to Arabian sea energy supply route, and China obviously will oppose this. It comes down to deterrence to discourage China from directly intervening as much as possible. If it's just US/UK/France/Israel/India, China I think MIGHT still intervene though unlikely, because they might get Russia on their side, which would make for a much more even battle, as it's much easier for China and Russia to mobilize their troops to Pakistan than US/Europe.

HOWEVER If Russia agrees to join US's side instead (unlikely, they will at best stay out of it), Chinese 99% won't intervene directly, because no matter what they'd lose then. This is why the coalition has to offer Russia something, like forcing any new government of Sindhudesh to enter into some kind of defense partnership with Russia, with Russia having veto power over defense related trade and foreign policy issues and the ability to build military bases in exchange for helping rebuild the country after the war and providing troops for training the security forces and additional security. Then Russia will join in or will at least commit to staying out, because Russia wants to become a global player again and wants influence in South Asia.

The biggest problem is public backlash. "ZOMG he is a Russian agent" to any President that tries this. Only a Trump republican with some neocon sympathies can pull this off. I think Ron DeSantis could do it, but now to get inside his inner circle is the hard part.

I think a preliminary ruckus in khyber province , Balochistan , gilgit ,can help followed by some extremism in Pakistani punjab , can provide best cover for intelligence gathering of exact nukes location , which we are doing somewhat , getting some men in their proximity of facilities , the biggest problem would be to mobilize enough troop and also preventing movement of pakistani or their allied troops , that requires lot of boot on ground that too fully camouflaged in their population , indian can do that , US don't have people in such shades and facial features and prosthetic for such a large group of people will be impractical , you will need road routes , airfield , airstrips , some port location secured to move the nukes out asap , all this will require people , this isn't osama elimination that paki will keep quite this is their existential threat ,we shouldn't face much resistance and for that to happen most people in Pakistan should be busy in infighting , baloch ,ttp , and some more .


Russia will be involved for sure ,but it shouldn't be in primary plan , US and Russia can be invited in nukes sharing agreement or during final assault while transporting nukes , anything before would create a bigger infighting mess in coalition .



For all this we would be requiring some sam system in hostile land , the smaller ranged ones , one good thing here is that most of pakistan airspace is under s 400 , so it won't be like that easy for them .

 

[Detective Pennington]

I think a preliminary ruckus in khyber province , Balochistan , gilgit ,can help followed by some extremism in Pakistani punjab , can provide best cover for intelligence gathering of exact nukes location , which we are doing somewhat , getting some men in their proximity of facilities , the biggest problem would be to mobilize enough troop and also preventing movement of pakistani or their allied troops , that requires lot of boot on ground that too fully camouflaged in their population , indian can do that , US don't have people in such shades and facial features and prosthetic for such a large group of people will be impractical , you will need road routes , airfield , airstrips , some port location secured to move the nukes out asap , all this will require people , this isn't osama elimination that paki will keep quite this is their existential threat ,we shouldn't face much resistance and for that to happen most people in Pakistan should be busy in infighting , baloch ,ttp , and some more .


Russia will be involved for sure ,but it shouldn't be in primary plan , US and Russia can be invited in nukes sharing agreement or during final assault while transporting nukes , anything before would create a bigger infighting mess in coalition .



For all this we would be requiring some sam system in hostile land , the smaller ranged ones , one good thing here is that most of pakistan airspace is under s 400 , so it won't be like that easy for them .

Right, I agree that finding out exact location of Nukes is important, and intelligence sharing between India and US is important here. However, I think US satellites know most of the locations by now. When in doubt they're just going to bomb everything that could possibly have nukes, but there are underground sites and shit that can't be hit via bombers.

Tbh, I think you're overstating the whole competition for recovery of nukes thing. For random non-state actors, sure, A pakistani nuclear weapon would be amazing but not for Russia and US, they have way better shit than Paki baby nukes, they aren't going to fight over them. But yeah of course it's safer to work out those details before hand. But I also think they're not going to transport the nukes anywhere, they are just going to destroy them.

 

[Lonewolf]

Right, I agree that finding out exact location of Nukes is important, and intelligence sharing between India and US is important here. However, I think US satellites know most of the locations by now. When in doubt they're just going to bomb everything that could possibly have nukes, but there are underground sites and shit that can't be hit via bombers.

Tbh, I think you're overstating the whole competition for recovery of nukes thing. For random non-state actors, sure, A pakistani nuclear weapon would be amazing but not for Russia and US, they have way better shit than Paki baby nukes, they aren't going to fight over them. But yeah of course it's safer to work out those details before hand. But I also think they're not going to transport the nukes anywhere, they are just going to destroy them.

They are nothing compared to their arsenal but still a potential threat , destroying nukes could be a option but their stockpile if tried to be destroyed on Pakistan itself there would be no pakistan , somewhat india and lot of area of afgan and some iran will be affected