It will be almoust the same like on polish 125mm APFSDS ammo:
in certified is used polish norm, what is copied ex soviet norm: more then 75% rounds must pass the limit, NATO norm is not so heavy -just 50% +1, difrence in both norms is about 8% in penetration.
So this polish 125mm APFSDS have 520mm RHA (75% rounds) to 560mm RHA (50% rounds) on 2000m.
If this was able decade ago in Poland then it's sure that it is possible in India - what more - it's based on IMI technology too - just like present indian 125mm APFSDS amunition.
IMHO those "new" indian APFSDS 125mm will have 520-560mm RHA on 2000m - just like polish round.
Again - the "new" Polish ammo or for that matter new Russian ammo has no direct relevance to ARDEs efforts because there is no given theorem that they will exactly follow what others have done or that they have even taken Russian or Polish assistance (for example).
You are further mixing up things. IMI technology to India has little relevance to DRDO because they did not work with IMI for that round and that TOT was a mess. Basically, DRDO made 125mm rounds, OFB (which is the state mandated manufacturer) screwed up on one large batch by mixing and matching DRDO penetrators with imported Russian propellant, which leaked when the Army stored them in high heat conditions. The rounds malfunctioned and one crew was even lost. Instead of waiting for issue resolution, the IA chose the simpler route of selecting an IMI round with marginally better performance and had OFB negotiate for license production. That license production involved importing complete penetrator blanks to be machined in India at OFB. DRDO's 125mm round (MK1) was effectively dropped. Meanwhile they continued working on their tech using their own money, but the IA was not interested. Meanwhile things started getting interesting. IA ran shot of Mango rounds that came with T-90, when they tried to put the Israeli rounds in the T-90, the Russians asked for more money for the software modification for the BC. IA then asks DRDO/Pvt supplier to use Arjun tech to develop a new Ballistic com for the T-90 in the same form factor.
Meanwhile, OFB continues to have issues with IMI tech transfer, rounds never quite manage to meet quality audits.
Meanwhile, Israel offers new 125mm rounds with performance better than the CL3254M that had been originally sold to India.
If all this was not enough, the MOD blacklisted IMI when news broke that an ex OFB head may have taken bribes. So the IA turns around and a) imports Mango rounds in huge numbers (66K+ at 2-3x the price citing urgent operational necessity), and b) agrees to work with DRDO for their 125mm round, which is languishing, because I kid you not, the IA originally had said that there was no operational requirement for the round (IMI rounds plus Mango were expected to suffice), and hence no official GSQR (Army General Staff Qualitative Requirements).
Now, they agree to work with DRDO to refine the round, participate in trials, and then ask the DRDO to improve the round performance to what the Israelis had now offered and realized that imports and TOT were not as easy as they had thought.
So what do we know about the new GSQRs and what they may include?
The stated requirement of the IA for the new round is per what they were getting from the international market from Israel, till corruption allegations put paid to the procurement. That round, the latest available for the 125mm class from Israel, was stated as at least 600mm. A similar statement is made by the ex head of DRDO in an interview in 2012 IIRC wherein he mentions that requirement.
So OFB is the production agency. It rarely if ever flows tech "back" to DRDO. If anything, DRDO sends what tech it has to OFB. OFB doesn't particularly care if DRDO programs had issues in the past, because one way or the other, they would make whatever India wanted, even if imported.
Things are changing now, and OFB has started investing in R&D, and its facilities are leveraged by DRDO, it helps in productionizing DRDO products, but at the end of the day, they are still very dependent on DRDO and others for tech & even roadmap of future products.
Also, expecting pure iterative development from DRDO may appear logical, but it only works to a point. They do make transitions to newer tech even as the "older" is still in production or in trials. Take the MRLS - Pinaka (40km) in production, Mk2 (iterative improvement at 60 km, same overall system, improved rocket) in final trials, yet a strike SSM Prahar (150km class, absolutely new) derived from a SAM in simultaneous trials and will be introduced roughly at the same time as MK2 Pinaka ramps up.
So to say that the "new" (Mk3 unofficial) 125mm ammo will be just scaled up 125mm MK2 - again, that may not work. The MK2 was ready for trials circa 2010. Its been 3 years now.
Similarly, the Arjun MK2 was also required to come with new rounds. The DRDO never bothered fielding new rounds for MK1 because it was stuck in endless trials syndrome. Each time, the IA would ask for new trials.
Finally, after forced comparative trials, the Arjun came out ahead of the T-90 in mobility and fire power accuracy. IA reluctantly agrees to MK2, after senior IA observers start seeing the advantages and MK2 requirement includes new 120mm rounds (including thermobaric) which DRDO agreed to because now it made sense to invest in new rounds for the Arjun given the first 124 would go into production and another 118 were likely as well.