AMCA - Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (HAL)

[TPFscopes]

So can we expect(if everything goes fine) first flight by 2022.

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If everything goes well with the same force than first flight may occur in 2024-2025 and further it may take nearly half decade to tune itself for the induction.

This is actually an ill informed statement. AMCA can be deverloped completely indegeneously as all the buiding blocks are in advanced stages of developement : Kaveri 110-125 KN , stealth coating RAM, stleathy airframe shaping, serpentile air intake, 3D TVC, AESA radar, sensor fusion etc.
During the 90's when Su-30 mki contract was signed there was 0 % TOT and only licence manufacture. So obviously we decided to go for TOT in next collaboration with Russia which they are very reluctant to give.
The problem is IAF itself is not happy with PAK-FA as a semi stealth airframe is being passed on as Fifth gen even though it it just 4.75 gen and have suggested numerous changes. India has invested 295 million $ and a basic airframe design is reached which is exhibited in Aero-India 2013. We should withdraw from this project and develop this airframe as our indegeneous AHCA. With 6 billion $ investment which Russia is asking in ADA and HALwe can have multiple fifth gen fighters as well as stealth bombers and transport planes indegeneously. Better to go indegeneous route.

Yup, we can develop AMCA as 100% indigenous Stealth fighter but this attitude will delay the project by decades.
Developers desperately need some critical technologies either off the shelf or as ToT or as a joint venture/development.
Moreover, Stealth tests on full scale model will pace the further way of AMCA development...

 

[aditya10r]

If everything goes well with the same force than first flight may occur in 2024-2025 and further it may take nearly half decade to tune itself for the induction.

So we can assume AMCA to enter service around 2030-35??????????????

 

[Kchontha]

If 2030-35 is the time line for amca to enter into service then it is better oft for f35.

 

[Adioz]

If 2030-35 is the time line for amca to enter into service then it is better oft for f35.

Better to opt for F-35? Is it even on offer? And even if it was, is it really a sane decision to opt for F-35 and kill the entire Indian fighter aircraft industry (which incidentally is also our entire fixed-wing aircraft industry)?

Why do you want the IAF to abort AMCA when DRDO is just 1 month pregnant?

And that is if the Americans are willing to offer us F-35. We'll probably have to sign the CISMOA, etc,etc, the death warrant for our Sovereignty and kiss Trump's butt every single day in order for the Americans to even consider offering us the F-35. And then good luck with US government dictating Indian Air Force (infact the entire Armed Forces) when and what to hit/ not hit.

Is your reasoning such that since the Chinese already have a 5th generation flying and developing and by 2035 even Pakistan might have one, we better get one ASAP too? Even if that was the case, it would have been better to expedite AMCA program and put some serious effort on it.

So we can assume AMCA to enter service around 2030-35??????????????

IMHO it will be in the IAF in substantial numbers by 2035-36 if they target production at a rate of 18 aircraft per year. Would not be difficult if our national economic plan works.

 

[Kyubi]

So we can assume AMCA to enter service around 2030-35??????????????

Not to sound pessimistic, but i have a feeling that considering how the relations between India - the US and Pakistan- US are ... we are gonna bite the bullet for continous purchases from the US in-order to curtail any further pakistani lobbying for FMS/CSF( coalition support funds) from the US.

India might go for FMS route for Predator drones and have US Dump F16 licensed production here. Further More with IAF's interim requirement being fulfilled by TEJAS MK1 and TEJAS MK1a and in the medium category Rafale with F16 .. the onus for developing TEJAS MKII and AMCA will be greatly reduced . Because by that timeline F35 would have progressed interms of reliability, maintainence etc.. and US Lobbying will continue to exert pressure for purchasing f35. AMCA will most likely face the same trails and tribulations as TEJAS and will continue to be in prototype stage with only a handful of orders placed to pacify the public.

I am wondering how is IAF gonna work out the logistics nightmare when their entire fleet is so diverse and not coming for few vendors but multiple vendors spread across the northern and western hemisphere of the Earth. We might have half of our fleet in constant stages of repair , with the BRD's hagling with foreign vendors for SPARE's ..

 

[aditya10r]

Not to sound pessimistic, but i have a feeling that considering how the relations between India - the US and Pakistan- US are ... we are gonna bite the bullet for continous purchases from the US in-order to curtail any further pakistani lobbying for FMS/CSF( coalition support funds) from the US.

India might go for FMS route for Predator drones and have US Dump F16 licensed production here. Further More with IAF's interim requirement being fulfilled by TEJAS MK1 and TEJAS MK1a and in the medium category Rafale with F16 .. the onus for developing TEJAS MKII and AMCA will be greatly reduced . Because by that timeline F35 would have progressed interms of reliability, maintainence etc.. and US Lobbying will continue to exert pressure for purchasing f35. AMCA will most likely face the same trails and tribulations as TEJAS and will continue to be in prototype stage with only a handful of orders placed to pacify the public.

I am wondering how is IAF gonna work out the logistics nightmare when their entire fleet is so diverse and not coming for few vendors but multiple vendors spread across the northern and western hemisphere of the Earth. We might have half of our fleet in constant stages of repair , with the BRD's hagling with foreign vendors for SPARE's ..

I also have a a feeling that F-16's are coming.

Maybe at the cost of LCA tejas mk2,but definitely not at the cost of AMCA,amca would be ready by 2030-35 time frame,by then we would have achieved the 45 squadron requirement and chinese would have achieved enough technological advancement-they would be having enough jets in tibet to launch an offensive against india pretty easily,thats when i believe we will start increasing the number of sanctioned squadrons.

It totally depends on how IAF handles the arms import lobby,if its able to cut it down in next 5-10 years,we will be having a pretty decent sized indigenous air combat fleet.

We have to commit fully on our defence base for future-limit future combat aircrafts to FGFA,rafale and this single engine jet-no more videshi maal after that-even if any indigenous equipment will have to go down IAF's throat through force.

AMCA and Tejas MK2 are our best shot,lets not waste them.

 

[aditya10r]

if they target production at a rate of 18 aircraft per year. Would not be difficult if our national economic plan works.

18 per year is just toooooooooooooooo low,it should be at least 40/year.

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How do we plan to take on 2 nuclear power neighbors with just 18 aircraft per year.

 

[aditya10r]

@Kyubi Plus i dont think We will be getting those F-35 without COSMOA and BECA bullshit,if IAF really repects national respect(which i think they will to the utmost level) then IAF wont order a single F-35,or the USA will sell any.

 

[Kyubi]

@Kyubi Plus i dont think We will be getting those F-35 without COSMOA and BECA bullshit,if IAF really repects national respect(which i think they will to the utmost level) then IAF wont order a single F-35,or the USA will sell any.

I dont doubt the commitment of IAF viz a vis protecting the Indian skies . But their indignation towards state owned PSU's although i believe sometimes they are rightly placed, has caused them to turn a blind eye towards genuine indegenious products

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[aditya10r]

I dont doubt the commitment of IAF viz a vis protecting the Indian skies . But their indignation towards state owned PSU's although i believe sometimes they are rightly placed, has caused them to turn a blind eye towards genuine indegenious products

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

Well you are right on on the part of Indian PSU's and other public defense industries.
And for that IAF and OFB and other DPSU's are to be blamed.

If this Strategic partnership model of the gormint goes through then we can be assured about AMCA a little bit.

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[Adioz]

18 per year is just toooooooooooooooo low,it should be at least 40/year.

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How do we plan to take on 2 nuclear power neighbors with just 18 aircraft per year.

Just a wild guesstimate by me based on what rate Tejas is planned at and considering the fact that AMCA is a significantly more complex machine.

Let us consider what the US faced in F-16 and F-35 production lines. F-16 production line at Fort Worth was producing one F-16 in one day (crazy right?) in 1987. Now with the F-35, they plan a full-steam production at somewhere about 50-60 aircraft per year.

So if we achieve 18/year, it might not be all that bad. A production rate of 40 per year requires a very large order ~400-500 aircraft to be placed. And it requires a significantly larger defence supplier chain than what we have today and might have in the future, especially seeing as the Air Force seems intent on killing Tejas Mk2 by throwing a F-16 at it.

 

[Indx TechStyle]

@Kyubi Plus i dont think We will be getting those F-35 without COSMOA and BECA bullshit,if IAF really repects national respect(which i think they will to the utmost level) then IAF wont order a single F-35,or the USA will sell any.

IAF is full of lobbyists. Even in case of ARM, they rejected calling it overweight and demanded for foreign ones (actually overweight).
I'm yet to find a single craft in USAF, Russian or PLAAF which has a range of above 100km but weighs less than 100kg.
Seriously, pointless.

 

[aditya10r]

Just a wild guesstimate by me based on what rate Tejas is planned at and considering the fact that AMCA is a significantly more complex machine.

Let us consider what the US faced in F-16 and F-35 production lines. F-16 production line at Fort Worth was producing one F-16 in one day (crazy right?) in 1987. Now with the F-35, they plan a full-steam production at somewhere about 50-60 aircraft per year.

So if we achieve 18/year, it might not be all that bad. A production rate of 40 per year requires a very large order ~400-500 aircraft to be placed. And it requires a significantly larger defence supplier chain than what we have today and might have in the future, especially seeing as the Air Force seems intent on killing Tejas Mk2 by throwing a F-16 at it.

Well I think by the time AMCA arrives we would have increased the number of sanctioned squadrons.

Plus the initial requirement is around 200 jets(to replace jaguars and mugs+mirages).

I think if will have to put down a order of 400+ by late 2030 if amca arrives in earlier 2030.

By then we would have a pretty decent military industry, definitely not as big as USA but still quite strong.

 

[Armand2REP]

Just a wild guesstimate by me based on what rate Tejas is planned at and considering the fact that AMCA is a significantly more complex machine.

Let us consider what the US faced in F-16 and F-35 production lines. F-16 production line at Fort Worth was producing one F-16 in one day (crazy right?) in 1987. Now with the F-35, they plan a full-steam production at somewhere about 50-60 aircraft per year.

So if we achieve 18/year, it might not be all that bad. A production rate of 40 per year requires a very large order ~400-500 aircraft to be placed. And it requires a significantly larger defence supplier chain than what we have today and might have in the future, especially seeing as the Air Force seems intent on killing Tejas Mk2 by throwing a F-16 at it.

They plan a full-steam production of 17 units per month at the Fort Worth facility by 2020. There is also a factory in Italy.

 

[Adioz]

They plan a full-steam production of 17 units per month at the Fort Worth facility by 2020. There is also a factory in Italy.

F-35 Production Set to Quadruple As Massive Factory Retools

This year, Lockheed will build 53 F-35s here and at another assembly facility in Italy,

Well I think by the time AMCA arrives we would have increased the number of sanctioned squadrons.

Plus the initial requirement is around 200 jets(to replace jaguars and mugs+mirages).

I think if will have to put down a order of 400+ by late 2030 if amca arrives in earlier 2030.

By then we would have a pretty decent military industry, definitely not as big as USA but still quite strong.

Sorry for switching threads, but my answer could have derailed the AMCA thread.
So I replied in this thread:-
Indian Air Force: News & Discussions

 

[mattster]

I think the writer of this article makes it sound as if the Israelis and Indians are mindless weak peons who are willing to let the US dictate terms of their national defense.

Sure they may put pressure and tell their customers that it cheaper to buy their planes that develop one from scratch. But ultimately any big military power will make their own decisions based on their own cost-benefit analysis.

if the Israelis felt they couldn't rely on the US for the future fighter aircraft needs, then they surely would have built the Lavi.....but as it goes - the Israelis are getting F-35s as fast as the USAF is. For India......there are other calculus involved. India does have the same kind of relationship as Israel with the US, nor are they beholden to the US for military aid like Israel.

Therefore there are a whole bunch of factors involved in this cost-benefit analysis and American and French pressure will be one of many many factors to be evaluated before any decision is made.
Keeping the F-16 or F-18 line open may save a few thousand manufacturing jobs, but it not going to kill either Boeing or Lockheed Martin or General Dynamics.

India will have to evaluate the cost of losing the knowledge base developed on LCA if they don't develop the MK-2, versus creating an aircraft that is not up to par, and that the IAF may not even potentially want, and the possibility of huge delays making it an obsolete aircraft by the time the MK-2 is ready.

Not an easy decision any way you slice it - but if India opts to kill the LCA at MK-1 stage, it won't be because of US pressure.

 

[shuvo@y2k10]

Look the simple thing is if we have to purchase a 40-50 year old single engine fighter design then our own HF 24 Marut (which is retired )with some modern electronics is a better option than F-16.

 

[shuvo@y2k10]

Nice article on AMCA by Saurav Jha

 

[Superdefender]

Saurav Jha
@SJha1618
The AMCA project will not take that long If firm ASQRs are made on the basis of technology readiness levels with producibility in mind.
5:10 AM - 9 Oct 2017

 

[Adioz]

Saurav Jha
@SJha1618
The AMCA project will not take that long If firm ASQRs are made on the basis of technology readiness levels with producibility in mind.
5:10 AM - 9 Oct 2017

You need an Air Force design bureau for that kind of firm and informed ASQR. Guess which is the only service to not have a design bureau? The Air Force.