The Indian Air Force authorities recently briefed Defence Minister Arun Jaitley on the IAF's immediate requirement of 126 Rafale combat aircraft of France. The Rs 62,000 crore contract, being tipped as the mother of all defence deals globally, had run into a rough weather during the UPA regime. Now France is pinning its hope on the Narendra Modi Government to lock the deal. While the IAF is for the deal, Indian defence observers opine that the multi-billion dollar contract will be a "financial suicide" and instead the Government should invest in reviving the comatose indigenous aircraft industry. Bureaucracy Today brings to its readers an in-depth analysis of the worthiness of the Dassault Rafale defence deal.
The future of war is not now on the ground or at sea, but in the air. As Brigadier General Billy Mitchell, then commander of all American air combat units in France, famously said in November 1918, "The day has passed when armies on the ground or navies on the sea can be the arbiter of a nation's destiny in war. The main power of defense and the power of initiative against an enemy has passed to the air."
A country without a strong Air Force is at the mercy of any aggressor. History tells us how air superiority played a decisive role and won battles in World War-I and II. The Indian border security is being continuously impacted by the rise of China as a militarily global power.
But it seems India is yet to learn its lessons from history. India's annual defence budget for the year 2014-15 is USD 39.2 billion of which the major portion is earmarked for the Army. No doubt both strong Army and Navy are important for a country's defence but air mastery is today the supreme expression of the entire military power. The large Army on the ground becomes ineffective in the absence of a strong air cover.
Defence experts say India contemplating finalizing a deal with French aerospace major Dassault for the supply of 126 Rafale fighter jets won't give an edge to the country in the case of a war with China or Pakistan. Instead the deal will burn a big hole in India's pocket.
RAFALE: A WHITE ELEPHANT?
In January 2012 when India chose the Rafale combat plane for exclusive negotiations, the company had quoted its price between USD 60-65 million (Rs 373-Rs 400 crore). Its rival, Eurofighter, had quoted USD 80-85 million (Rs 497-Rs 528 crore). But at present the cost has allegedly escalated by 100 per cent. A Defence Ministry insider tells Bureaucracy Today, "The cost has now escalated by 100 per cent. Now a Rafale fighter jet could cost USD 120 million (Rs 746 crore). It means that the deal would now cost India approximately $28-30 billion (Rs1.75 lakh crore-Rs1.86 lakh crore), making it a suicidal choice now."
However, advocating the IAF's choice for the Rafale, former Air Chief Marshal SP Tyagi tells Bureaucracy Today, "After testing each and every aircraft, the IAF selected the Rafale as it met most of its needs. And in my opinion it is the best buy. Its price, technology, overall life cycle cost evaluation, serviceability everything matters for the IAF. Our process is a time-tested one."
Appu Kuttan Soman, a diplomatic historian and a defence analyst, thinks otherwise. He opines, "Whichever aircraft is chosen would serve with the IAF until beyond 2050. Being a fourth generation aircraft, the Rafale, like all its competitors in the MMRCA bid, would be obsolete long before that. Since India would be acquiring two fifth generation aircraft—one being developed in partnership with Russia and the other being developed domestically—the MMRCA is essentially an interim buy."
Industry insiders say even if the deal is finalized, the first of the Rafales will be delivered in late 2016. "The Light Combat Aircraft will enter squadron service in 2015, thus eliminating the raison d'etre for the MMRCA acquisition. Deliveries of the rest will continue into the 2030s. By then, stealth aircraft and UAVs would have proliferated. The Rafale would have become obsolete by the time it enters IAF service in large numbers. The fifth generation fighter India is co-producing with Russia is scheduled to begin production in India in 2022. Acquiring the Rafale when India is producing a fifth generation aircraft of roughly the same cost but much greater capabilities makes no sense," Soman says.
Echoing the views of former Air Chief Marshal Tyagi, defence expert and retired Major General Gagan Deep Singh Bakshi tells Bureaucracy Today, "The Rafale deal is very good for India. The Rafale was chosen in 2012 by the IAF as it was a better option economically. It was cheaper when compared to that of the Eurofighter"¦The IAF found the French aircraft very good as its overall life cycle cost was lower than that of other planes. Also the factors such as how long it remains in service; how long it remains non-functional during its repair and recoveries.
How fast it can be, how many sorties it can generate"¦ And by the experience of the Mirage earlier with the IAF we have found that French technology is very good and its overall operating cost and life cycle come out well. The Rafale is a good fighter jet and we must buy it at the earliest."
Contradicting Tyagi and Bakshi, another defence analyst, who doesn't want to be named, says, "The deal will not be beneficial for India. The technology of the Rafale is outdated. The Rafale is not a well-desired fighter plane in the world. It is not as per international standards. France also wanted to sell it to South Korea but failed. I don't know why India has to buy it. Maybe India does not want to buy any American or Russian plane."
Sources say even A K Antony, the Defence Minister in the UPA-II regime, had developed cold feet after the cost of the Rafale spiralled to almost double the original estimate. Bakshi also admits that the price has escalated. "Due to delays, the price of the deal has gone up to USD 20 billion," he says.
As per a report published in Sunday Guardian the high cost of the Rafale is the reason why France has thus far not been able to sell any of these military jets to an Air Force other than itself.
"Even that induction has reportedly been reduced to a number which makes the aircraft irrelevant in an actual conflict. The French Air Force may buy only a little over two dozen aircraft over the years from Dassault Aviation, far less than the number it had originally agreed to purchase," the report says.
Downplaying France's inability to sell the Rafale to other countries, former Air Chief Marshal Fali Homi Major tells Bureaucracy Today, "That is a completely different matter. It would have happened due to the relation of France with other countries. It should not be the criteria for selection.
The IAF concern is selecting the right weapon that meets its requirements. Definitely the Rafale is best for the IAF. After evaluating all the six jet fighters, the Rafale was shortlisted. And in the IAF during evaluation there is no ranking. The IAF just figures out planes which meet its needs. Suppose, three planes meet IAF requirements during evaluation, it lets the Ministry know that these aircraft have been shortlisted by the IAF. And from there it's the work of the Ministry to lock the deal with any of the companies after cost negotiations."
In December last year, Brazil rejected France's USD 4 billion proposal for 36 Rafale fighter jets for cost reasons and went for the Swedish Saab instead. However, downplaying the Brazilian rejection, former Air Chief Marshal Tyagi tells Bureaucracy Today, "If Brazil has rejected the Rafale, it is because it has different requirements than India. In fact, the Saab is a cheaper fighter but it does not suit the IAF requirement."
DOES INDIA REALLY NEED RAFALE?
Former Maj-General Bakshi tells Bureaucracy Today, "India needs new fourth generation fighter jets. And apart from the aircraft we wanted the complete Transfer of Technology with source codes and all"¦IAF was extremely happy with the earlier Mirage 2000. In fact, the IAF wanted to buy more Mirages but the Mirage factory has been shut down. In the meantime the French developed the Rafale and they offered it to us. Before finalizing the Rafale, the IAF did a very professional analysis of fighter jets. Practically the best in the results was the Eurofighter Typhoon, and the Rafale was number two, but we went in for the Rafale as it was twin engine and best suited to fly at a low altitude even when there is any bird hit as at a low altitude the chances of a bird hitting are most and in such conditions the fighter falls like a stone. There was a series of factors that were looked into and the Rafale was found the best. Another reason to select the Rafale was that the serviceability of the aircraft is easier due to the modular replacement of the parts that can be changed instantly and hence making it to fly for much longer time during its service."
He further says, "Air power is important as it gives the edge over the enemy. But currently the condition of the IAF is critical. And if you are weak in air then you are prone to lose the battle on the ground. The current bench strength of the IAF is down to 29 squadrons from its actual 45 squadrons. For going in a war, the IAF currently needs 60 squadrons but it never got that strength. When we look at the Chinese Air Force, they have now not only the quantitive fleet but also got the qualitative advantage above us. Today China has 913 fourth generation aircraft, whereas India has just 322. Earlier, the Chinese were only bigger but now they are better than us by three times and if China maintains the same speed to modernize its Air Force, then by 2020 they would be four times bigger than us with 1,300 plus fourth generation aircraft."
Defence experts opine that India instead of buying defence technology from foreign nations should invest in developing its own indigenous fighter jets. "These planes are all technology and the delivery of the Rafale fleet will continue taking place till 2030. By that time, these planes will be obsolete. By the end of 2030, when all the planes are delivered, it will be totally out of technology. These are fourth generation planes and now fifth generation aircraft are in service," a defence analyst tells Bureaucracy Today.
WILL MODI GOVT BITE THE FRENCH TOAST?
It will be interesting to see whether the Narendra Modi Government which has a strong proponent of indegenisation of defence equipment will lock the Rafale deal. Last month, Jaitley had told reporters that indegenisation in the defence sector is an issue which is already coming up in discussions and it is an area he is "personally willing to oversee".
A deal of the magnitude of the Rafale calls for greater transparency and a guarantee that the country will get benefits proportional to the investment. Though the proponents of the deal argue that it will help India get the critical technologies it lacks, but no detail has been disclosed what India asked for in terms of transfer of technology and what the vendor has offered.
A questionnaire sent by Bureaucracy Today to Dassault Rafale on the technology transfer understanding between the company and the Government of India remains unanswered.
The defence budget is not limitless and India has other more cost-effective means of rectifying the IAF's fighter shortage. A defence analyst opines, "India should develop its own indigenous plane. Hindustan Aeronautics Limited is a very good company. It has developed Tejas but it's a light fighter plane, it does not serve the purpose. It has an engine problem.
The Indian Government must give funds and incentives to the HAL so that it can upgrade its technology to develop an indigenous plane of fifth generation. It will take USD 20 billion and a minimum of 10 years but it's like planting a tree. If you don't plant a tree today after 10 years you will get nothing. But if you plant it today at least you will get something after 10 years. So this is very important."
HAL Chairman and Managing Director R K Tyagi refuted the claim of a problem in the Tejas engine. He also refused to make any comment on the Rafale deal. "Don't drag me into the issue (Rafale deal). Every deal has its own strategic importance," he tells Bureaucracy Today, adding, "There is no problem with the engine in the Tejas."
According to Soman, "The easiest way is to increase the rate of production of the Su-30MKI, which HAL is currently producing from raw materials. The LCA also will be ready for serial production before Dassault can deliver the first Rafale to India. For the price of one Rafale, the IAF can probably get three LCAs."
Reiterating better infrastructure at airfields, former Air Chief Marshal PV Naik tells Bureaucracy Today, "We need indigenisation but it cannot be done suddenly. It has to be planned over, let's say, 10 years. It starts with restructuring of the DRDO, making it lean and mean and more responsive to the users' needs. PSUs also need to be ruthlessly restructured and made more accountable.
The Ordnance Factory Board also needs a kick. The private sector needs to be encouraged to participate." Insisting on a more budget for research, he says by the time we develop our own defence equipment the Government should "go in for a planned reduction in the foreign content".
Local production is the backbone of any advanced aircraft industry. Defence observers opine that MK-II Tejas can meet the medium-range interdiction and strike role of the MMRCA. Bharat Karnad, a professor at the Centre for Policy Research, writes in his column, "A viable alternative is available in the Mark-II version of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) — its design fits the bill of an MMRCA"¦at its heart lies a ready-to-use AESA (Active Electronically Scanned Array) radar developed in collaboration with Israel that is comparable to that on the Rafale."
Defence experts believe the MK-II will be superior to the Rafale in manoeuvrability with a better angle of attack and a heavier payload capacity than what the Rafale can manage. It has a similar range, about 600 km, and can be inducted into service in less time than the Rafale. "Since MK-II are locally built, there will be capacity to hike production to meet any spike in demand for spares," Karnad says.
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Good work 
