A victory in my view would be a stalemate since most Indians have lost the war mentally before
it has even started. A real victory would be to open another front in Tibet and take large chunks.
long range SAM's which one exactly? SAM's are usually for air defense how will they be fired horizontally?
What good would horizontal fired SAM's be in that terrain? SAM's will provide coverage for air defense
but what about the ground war? SAM's have radar that will be targetted by the Indian side. The skirmish
will last 2 weeks at most IMO. You are over estimating Chinese capability to fight in the terrain. India has
experience fighting in mountains and Snow (siachen).Hoping someone stops the war is not a good strategy.
How will 100km be taken and held?? Do you know how difficult it is to hold even 1km or one hill look at
tiger hill as an example. I don't see armored divisions being effective offensively in that terrain. A shallow thrust
over mountain region is easier said than done. How will a thrust be possible when Chinese are fighting from lower
ground to higher ground?
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Phalcon AWAC is one of the best Air to ground AWAC in the world what makes you say this??
can you name a better AWAC in this role? Also sukoi's radar will provide some air to ground coverage
as well. A conventional war is the best option for India a missile war would be an escalation that I
don't see happening. If we are short ammunition being the biggest arms buyer in the world there
are many vendors who will supply in a hurry. Don't defeat yourself mentally before a war has even started.
1. We must not forget that for a long time India viewed Tibet as a free country. Only in the recent days GOI has started going equivocal on this issue while carefully maintaining hob nobing with Dalai lama.During any conflict with china if India treats Tibet as a part of china and grab the land by force it will have long term effect on the credibility of India in international politics. Having said this I will try to convey my little knowledge on the technical and military aspects of this issue to show why China is no less capable of defending this part of land which it claims to be its own !!!
2. I was never talking about firing a SAM horizontally as I do know the difference between LR-SAM, QR-SAM, MBRL
All i was trying to say is that the horizontal coverage provided by some Chinese SAM's can be around 100 km even when the angle of inclination is large enough, so I was basically talking about the opposite scenario to what I ended up conveying to you wrongly. May be its my poor language.
3. When you look at the open source you see that china went for S-300 5V55-series long time ago but when you read into the subsequent development in their so called indigenous program such as HQ-9 & HHQ-9, its very hard to digest that they stopped at buying anything less than S-300PMU2 which has a similar advertised range and performance to HQ-9 therefore its almost evident that they got at least a handful of original S-300PMU2 along with its reversed engineered version in ample numbers.Now as a sweetener you can just ruminate on this old report which I am sure that you have gone through earlier link:
Main News of June 27 | World | RIA Novosti this SAM they will be able to provide a much deeper coverage. This link also has a silent good news for India (at least for the near future) and that China might not be doing very well in this field in their own effort otherwise .... so quality of HQ-9 will ever remain a suspect for good
4. Certainly Indian armed forces have more fighting experiences in almost every department, yet modern day warfare is not so simplistic in nature. The kind of war that may be forced upon us will not be like the games we have been playing with Pakistan for decades.Their military philosophies are entirely different and lets not compare their capabilities.At present PLA is playing a game with the psych of Indian GOV and its armed forces. They are quietly gathering along the border without making much of fuss (except a few exceptions here & there which I think is just some adrenalin rush among the Chinese men in uniform than any tactics planned at the High level of PLA decision making body in contrary the coming months will see a considerable reduction in these Chinese leasure strolling in Indian territory as china does not want to help Indian in waging a so called global anti china paranoia). They are waiting for some vital military hardware which can help PLA in keeping the incursion & land grabing as low profile as possible.In the meantime china expects India to get a bit comfortable with the PLA sighing at their neck. Assam is The most vulnerable part of India which should be the first in the Chinese list.
5. I never said I am hoping for some Uncle or big daddy to come and save us rather that is the belief of a large number of decision makers in India which I doubt that even you will disagree.
6. I have some rough plans to which PLA may resort in order to launch the offensive against India but the righteousness of my ideas are entirely upon you guys to judge. I will discuss them in detail in later part.
7. See being short of ammo while fighting out cold wars !! with two nuke nations is a sign of systemic diseases. It only shows how much careless our entire system has become and this very thing will decide the fate of any future conflict. I will not be surprised if after a quick skirmish either with Pakistan or China or say both a section of our armed forces reveal that we simply forgot to use certain recently procured hardware as they were not formally handed over or no one ever formally asked for it while other section will blame gov for delayed training and lack of ammo & spare parts.I really don't mind sounding like a paranoid if what I said contains even 1% of truth in it.
8. Shallow thrust over the mountain region will not be a part of initial advancement of PLA. They can cut off the Assam (without capturing it entirely by sending army in the land & just by chocking the chicken neck to make the bell ring as mildly as possible) while keep thrusting along Indian boundary with shallow thrust to any retaliatory steps that IA is bound to take.When we look at the breadth of the neck it will be very difficult for Indian army to defend it for that matter I don't think even US can defend it without escalating the war to the extent which is certainly something that India does not have a capability to enforce.
9. I must be a mad man to question the capability of phalcon in any segment. All I was trying to convey is the fact that the MKI's are top notch when comes to A2A and icing on the cake will be sight when they work with a support of phalcon but what is questionable is MKI's A2G capability and not that of Phalcon's. Here I will tell you what I understand ( feel free to correct me ). Just because a fighter jet is data link enabled it is not obvious that data obtained this way can also be filtered and proceed to the desired accuracy by the Jet. This depends on the specification of mission computer and lots of others things including the exact type of bus material used internal data flow.
10. As per my view Chinese misadventure will mainly depend on few extremely powerful and long range weapons & warning systems for deep and massive penetration in order to shock and awe IA. 1. S 300 SMU2 May be even S 400 (if acquired by then at least in small nos.) Objective: to keep any invading IAF formation into Chinese territory at bay. 2. A-100 MBRL Objective: to quickly smash through the concentrated Indian defenses in the chicken neck & to neutralize all that little bit of old rusted Howitzer IA is left with 3. CJ-10 LACM Objective: to take out long range Indian radars as well as critically placed or fortified SAM installations 4. OTH radars Objective: both B & SW type will be used in tandem to make sure that Phalcon frequency is at least interfered and IAF gets blurred data.The use of OTH-SW type will give PLA the laxury of not using AWACS for a wide range of issues for the rest PLA will resort to UAV's 5. WLR such as SLC-2. Objective: well known 6. Highly advanced UAVs & drones Objective: eavesdrop ,wage EW in the form of ECM , ECCM etc MBRL correction and other fire guidance. Apart from all these well known and mentioned aspects of technology chinese doctrine can indeed think of original solutions to well known puzzles.This should be of another concern for Indian army which until now ( at least in the last 1 decade) have completely failed to impress me as I have always found it to be ill prepared, short of information and idea when it came to smart solutions. I don't pay tax to raise an army to shout "mera bharat mahan" and then die a painful death because of his ill informed and ill prepared careless generals & politicians sent him to fight & leave behind a distressed family in tears whose pain and agony is further canalized by one of the most insensitive,corrupted Gov in the Earth ( it has no political pun, once in the seat party colour hardly matters).
11. I am neither a super hero nor a pussy. I did a bit of independent thinking on my part & certainly I can be wrong but I dont believe that any war can be won with ego. There is a difference between confidence and ego for the later the best examples would be Saddam and Pakistan as a whole. We all know what became of them.Hiding weakness will not protect us. we gotta find the unconventional weaknesses of our enemy, we have to think of ways to use their strength against them, in a nutshell we have to do something unique and unthinkable to stop Chinese aggression and give them a bloody nose, but noting can be better than a NO WAR as we have seen enough blood & I hope the good sense prevails in the world as a whole.