Will China attack India again?

[Known_Unknown]

This is a bit OT, but I think it should be considered that India has NEVER, in its history as an independent country or before, fought a "total war". All wars that were waged by India were waged by the Indian Armed Forces, not the Indian people. The same is also true for Pakistan.

On the other hand, China has experience fighting total wars, both from the Second Sino-Japanese War (which was a fight for national survival) and the Chinese Civil War that followed. China in those days was a poor, undeveloped country with hardly any industrial capability, but the Chinese people showed that they were capable of withstanding tremendous hardship in the face of a superior, technologically advanced enemy, and were able to ultimately prevail through a sheer war of attrition (somewhat similar to the case of Soviet Union vs. Germany).

In the India-China context, the "total war" concept is irrelevant because neither country's armed forces have the ability to comprehensively defeat the armed forces of the other. The Chinese cannot hope to defeat the several million strong Indian armed forces and march into Delhi. Not least because India may attempt to deploy nukes as a last resort.

Similarly, India does not have the capability to defeat the PLA, so there's no question of a "total war".

However, in the case of a total war scenario involving India, I have my sincere doubts as to whether the people of India would show similar determination and steadfastness in the face of the enemy. If history is any indicator of the future, quite a few Indians would probably try to collaborate with the enemy, and many would probably be passive towards the war effort. It would be the ultimate test for the Republic of India, and would show whether or not there is anything concrete behind Indian nationalism.

I would be a bit cautious in applying historical examples to draw conclusions about today's India. Throughout history, there was rarely a pan-Indian nationalist empire emphasizing the Indian identity over caste, religious or linguistic identities. Large Indian kingdoms were always fractured by internal differences. If you look at smaller kingdoms though, you will see that in cases of foreign aggression, many of the kings and their relatives fought to their deaths on the battlefield while the womenfolk committed suicide.

Even in the Mahabharata, the Kauravas fought to the bitter end without compromising on their war aims.

While it is not quite the same as a "total war" in the European sense, due to the clearly defined caste identities in Indian society, the non-Kshatriya castes generally did not generally take up arms.

 

[Known_Unknown]

im surprised to notice that most of the above are defensive reaction strategies fighting more or less on our soil ......even pakistan with its' much smaller military has always held the position that once the line is crossed , they will nuke ....i think we should give china a bit of this pak -type medicine .... of course the situation is far from that , and so it is understandable that none of our leaders has had to pass such a message to dragon ..... but they shoudl perhaps be told on this forum , that that option always exists

Pakistan is suicidal, India is not. This is not a MAD scenario-China will have the upper hand if India does use nukes.

Bluffing only works up to a point.

EDIT: In case India used nukes, China will have an excuse to mobilize for total war. In this case, @civfanatic will be right, and a comprehensive Indian defeat is likely.

 

[DivineHeretic]

If it does boil down to a full blown war, the winner will more than likely be the side that will be willing to throw the most men to the frontlines. The chinese cant deploy the bulk of their airforce or navy against us without severely compromising their defensive grids against Japan-and to a lesser extent, Russia.

 

[Ray]

Very true. Agreed on the Sikkim/chicken's neck aspect; the terrain is tactically unfavorable for mechanized operations, but on a higher strategic level, it's the easiest place to inflict game-ending damage on India and force it to the negotiating table. India might use convoys and shipping in the BoB instead of forcing Bangladesh to open its routes up for supplies--I know if I was India's PM I would prefer doing that, as if Bangladesh says no and aligns with China and Pakistan, then India will have major major problems. Plus, it's highly unlikely the PLAN has the operational capability to operate in the BoB.

On the second point, I agree as well. Alpine combat results in horrific casualty rates. The largest example of alpine fighting was the Italian Campaign of World War I. It resulted in 3 million killed and wounded out of the 13 million men both sides deployed, all for little gain. Most of the casualties occured from disease and exposure. This picture should tell you what the fighting was like:

Trenches and infantry assaults at 4000M elevation = mass death

BY Chicken's Neck that will cut off India's NE, are you implying the Silgiguri Corridor?

Check the map.

From the study of the map, I find that it is a very interesting scheme of things that you suggest. As I see it, it will be a Herculean task for the Chinese, if not impossible.

How do the Chinese reach that?

Through the Chicken neck of China that is from Shigatse to Bhutan's Dolam Plateau?

Are you suggesting the China will take over Bhutan's Dolam Plateau and then roll down to the Plains of India and then go for the Siliguri Corridor?

What would be the forces that China would apply to do so, the timeframe and the logistic backup to sustain the move of this force and during the action?

Have you considered the Chicken's Neck of China that is the corridor between Bhutan and India that is of Tibet upto the Dolam Plateau?

Think it over.

 

[Singh]

Pakistan is suicidal, India is not. This is not a MAD scenario-China will have the upper hand if India does use nukes.

Bluffing only works up to a point.

EDIT: In case India used nukes, China will have an excuse to mobilize for total war. In this case, @civfanatic will be right, and a comprehensive Indian defeat is likely.

Apparently the world considered India top be more suicidal than Pakistan in 98 ;-)

I have made two points previously

1. Random response to Chinese / Pakistani actions. Nobody should be able to predict our response. We should publicly insinuate NFP is a joke. and we will hit not only the enemy but their friends and if we are going down we'll take every one down.

2. Redefine parameters of victory. Killing all Pakistanis while losing north India is a victory, destroying Chinese cities whilst losing most of India is a victory. Hint:kargil

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk HD

 

[W.G.Ewald]

How do you say Louisiana Purchase in Sioux?

You are very glib in your rationalizing of Chinese aggression, usually by citing events of centuries ago. Why is that - -do you think the argument is successful?

 

[Ray]

Louisiana was Purchased.

If history is to be quoted, then what about the forced assimilation of non Han into Han in pursuit of Han expansionism and imperialism?

Yues, Hmongs.being some people amongst others who have been converted into Han.

For approximately the last six generations, an estimated 300,000 Hmong have come to call Laos home. Most Hmong know their forefathers emigrated from China but that's been the extend of their historical knowledge. Few know of such legendary figures as Chiyou, Tao Tien and Ba yue Wu. Due to limited written documentation, migration and forced assimilation as Han, the history has become obscure.

This is not out of the hat. It is an acknowledged fact even by China.

Relearning and interpreting Hmong roots recently began at China's Xiangtan University in Hunan province where a handful of U.S. Hmong students attended a two-month summer program in ancient Hmong history and culture. The program included a month of intensive (6-hour days, six day weeks) classroom lectures and a month of field research to Hmong villages in southwestern China. The summer program was initiated by Xiangtan philosophy professor, An-ping Lei..

The term 'Miao" appeared in the Chinese Classics and early historical records such as the 'Zhanguo ce' ("Intrigues of the Warring States") and the "Shiji' ("Records of the Historians). After the Han Dynasty in 220 A.D., "Miao" disappeared from historical records until the Song Dynasty (A.D. 947-1279). The reason for the mysterious disappearance remains unclear.

Scholars seem to agree that the Hmong had gone through numerous dreadful periods in history in which the term 'Miao" also underwent some changes: from "Miao" to "Miao-Man" or "Man-Miao", "Wuling Man," 'Wuxi Man," or simply "Man," and then eventually back to "Miao". Whether the ancient Miao are today's Miao is debatable among scholars.

How did the term "Miao' or 'Hmong" come into being? Although the term 'Miao" appeared in Chinese historical records, the term 'Hmong' never did. What did they call themselves back then, "Hmong or 'Miao?'. The answer to this question varied from region to region. For example, the western Hunan Hmong call themselves "Guo-xiong". Those in eastern Guizhou call themselves "Amaot" or "Mo'. And those in Yunnan and southeastern Sichuan call themselves 'Meng" or "Hmong". They may indeed have called themselves "Hmong" as many assumed, but "Miao' is probably a name given to them by the Chinese, at least in writing. In his "Insurgency and Social Disorder in Guizhou: The "Miao" Rebellion, 1854-1873," Robert Jenks wrote, "The most convincing explanation of the origin of the term 'Miao' is that it represented an effort on the part of the Chinese to recreate the sound of the word (pronounced 'Mong' or 'Mu,' as the 'H' is unaspirated) used by members of the ethnic group to refer to themselves."

(Details from my computer)

 

[DivineHeretic]

The biggest deterrent to a chinese invasion is not really military, rather simple economics coupled with a state fearful of its own people. Several statements made by the chinese premier,the President,the CCP mouthpiece and scholarly article clearly warns that for the CCP to retain power the populace will need to be kept satisfied and if you will subdue by providing them more enticing alternatives such as empkyment and financial security. To do that the state must grow by a about 8% for a long time,until the lower and lower middle classes reach a certain strata. A war with India and ifor that matter with japan is like the worst nightmare coming to town for the Politburo. Any economic sanction by the west(rest assured there will be) will cripple their export oriented economy. It wont force a collapse of the financial system,but the CCP will have set its foot on a slippery slope,the only way being down.

 

[s002wjh]

The biggest deterrent to a chinese invasion is not really military, rather simple economics coupled with a state fearful of its own people. Several statements made by the chinese premier,the President,the CCP mouthpiece and scholarly article clearly warns that for the CCP to retain power the populace will need to be kept satisfied and if you will subdue by providing them more enticing alternatives such as empkyment and financial security. To do that the state must grow by a about 8% for a long time,until the lower and lower middle classes reach a certain strata. A war with India and ifor that matter with japan is like the worst nightmare coming to town for the Politburo. Any economic sanction by the west(rest assured there will be) will cripple their export oriented economy. It wont force a collapse of the financial system,but the CCP will have set its foot on a slippery slope,the only way being down.

so how is economic saction got into ind-china war. US/euro/jap will continue to export/import from china, the war doesn't affect them, heck US/japan/ASEAN would love to see china-ind throw at each other, therefore weaken both. :thumb:

 

[Ray]

so how is economic saction got into ind-china war. US/euro/jap will continue to export/import from china, the war doesn't affect them, heck US/japan/ASEAN would love to see china-ind throw at each other, therefore weaken both. :thumb:

Weaken India and China would be disastrous for them all.

Because then India and China would have seen through the game and would unite.

If that happens, then it is Armageddon for them!

 

[DivineHeretic]

I guess you are right partly that we cant organise our defence on the hopes of westen sanctions and also that US/Nato will prefer both their future rivals to be engaged with each other.
But to imagine that the japs and koreans, not to forget the vietnamese will not take advantage of a clossal conflict involving their biggest regional threat would be well,foolish at best.
They may not involve directly in conflict but will use this opportunity to resolve the SCS conflict on much more favourable terms with a govt under intense duress.

 

[t_co]

But to imagine that the japs and koreans, not to forget the vietnamese will not take advantage of a clossal conflict involving their biggest regional threat would be well,foolish at best.
They may not involve directly in conflict but will use this opportunity to resolve the SCS conflict on much more favourable terms with a govt under intense duress.

Depends on how long the conflict lasts. I'd expect a border crisis to end somewhat quickly, since both sides have strong incentives to keep a conflict "short and sweet". After all, Pakistan has just as much (or even greater) problems with India as Japan does with China, and unlike Japan, it has nuclear weapons.

 

[t_co]

The biggest deterrent to a chinese invasion is not really military, rather simple economics coupled with a state fearful of its own people. Several statements made by the chinese premier,the President,the CCP mouthpiece and scholarly article clearly warns that for the CCP to retain power the populace will need to be kept satisfied and if you will subdue by providing them more enticing alternatives such as empkyment and financial security. To do that the state must grow by a about 8% for a long time,until the lower and lower middle classes reach a certain strata. A war with India and ifor that matter with japan is like the worst nightmare coming to town for the Politburo. Any economic sanction by the west(rest assured there will be) will cripple their export oriented economy. It wont force a collapse of the financial system,but the CCP will have set its foot on a slippery slope,the only way being down.

The CCP is a lot more resilient than you think. And how could the West impose sanctions when so many Western corporations are invested in China's economy? In the end, Western corporations are the ones that call the shots in Parliament and the White House.

 

[DivineHeretic]

Not to mention that they are the only nation that would threaten a fly with nukes,if they could.
But I doubt either of us has any appetite for a skirmish at this stage or for a long time to come.
The problem could lie with situations like the 1967,1987 events that happened because tense troops on either side of the border lost their cool and started a chain of sorts.
Such a thing is the real threat rather than a planned invasion by either side, coz if somethong similar happened now,national pride and blind patriotism would force us into an uncontrollable downward spiral with tragic consequences

 

[t_co]

Not to mention that they are the only nation that would threaten a fly with nukes,if they could.
But I doubt either of us has any appetite for a skirmish at this stage or for a long time to come.
The problem could lie with situations like the 1967,1987 events that happened because tense troops on either side of the border lost their cool and started a chain of sorts.
Such a thing is the real threat rather than a planned invasion by either side, coz if somethong similar happened now,national pride and blind patriotism would force us into an uncontrollable downward spiral with tragic consequences

I wholeheartedly agree. Both sides should adopt crisis hotlines at the theater/military region level, or even at the group army/corps level, and "dispute resolution mechanisms" at the company and battalion level, to prevent any disputes from escalating out of control.

As recently at 1920, the US made war plans to invade Canada and stationed large numbers of troops on the Canadian border, on top of having long-running border disputes with Canada. By 1950, though, the US-Canadian border was basically unpoliced and both sides had shelved most of their disputed territories, and even integrated their air defense and long-range radar networks. There is no reason why China and India can't achieve a similar diplomatic accomplishment.

 

[DivineHeretic]

A mechanism does exist,but its effectiveness is questionable.
And our situation is differentt from the US-Canada one in that the sole superpower was not a party to the tension,and neither was a nuclear armed mullah another headache to be contended with.

 

[t_co]

A mechanism does exist,but its effectiveness is questionable.
And our situation is differentt from the US-Canada one in that the sole superpower was not a party to the tension,and neither was a nuclear armed mullah another headache to be contended with.

Actually, I'm interested in what this mechanism is. Is it public? (There's no reason for keeping it secret, but it could be secret just out of habit)