India's strategic implications, challenges, opportunities and quest for great power status

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Indx TechStyle, Aug 23, 2016.

  1. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    India may confront many internal & external challenges: President Pranab Mukherjee
    The President said that emergence of Asia as the new 'centre of economic power' has gradually shifted the centre of gravity of the world financial power from the West to the East.
    BY: PTI | NEW DELHI |Published On:November 1, 2016 9:04 PM
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  2. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    [​IMG]
    India’s Aspirations
    Reshaping the World's Biggest Democracy

    By
    Daniel Ten Kate | Updated June 7, 2016 4:44 AM UTC


    The Situation
    [​IMG]
    SOURCE: DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY AND PROMOTION
    The Background
    [​IMG]
    SOURCE: GOVERNMENT OF INDIA PLANNING COMMISSION
    The Argument

    The Reference Shelf
     
  3. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    ‎US pivot to Asia uncertain, India may have to reassess its Act East policy
    [​IMG]

    Exactly the point I raised when Trump won US Elections.:)
     
  4. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    India, Japan and a new regional architecture
    India’s World War II conception of Asia has finally turned on its head.
    Livemint
    [​IMG]Illustration: Jayachandran/Mint
     
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  5. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Donald Trump and India: President-elect's hawkish views on China bode well for us
    Jaideep Prabhu Nov 14, 2016 18:29 IST[​IMG]
     
  6. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Cross Posting
    Government bridging gap with West Asia

    [​IMG]
    PM Narendra Modi in a meeting with the Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia
    HIGHLIGHTS
    • Narendra Modi has travelled to UAE, Qatar, Iran and Saudi Arabia.
    • Sushma Swaraj has touched down in Bahrain, Israel and UAE.
    • In the coming months, India will play host to leaders from UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran.
     
  7. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    The article has some points exact what I've been raising for long. I'll highlight them in red.:)
    Countering China: India’s Uncertain Response – Analysis

    [​IMG]India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi with China's President Xi Jinping. Photo Credit: Narendra Modi, Wikipedia Commons.
     
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  8. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    [​IMG]India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi addresses a rally in a cricket stadium in Srinagar, India (November 7, 2015).
    Image Credit: REUTERS/Danish Ismail
    The Myth of India’s Non-Aligned Boycott
    Why India’s media was so ready to buy into the idea that Modi boycotted the Non-Aligned Summit.

    Bureaucracy and a Birthday, Not a Boycott

    Media Hype and Distortions

    The Non-Aligned Movement in a Contested World Order
     
  9. prohumanity

    prohumanity Senior Member Senior Member

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    The pseudo-liberal media mafia spreads and controls the narrative but now, in USA , average citizen has understood this game and thus,they voted Trump as their President.

    US foreign policy has been dictated by this small group of clintonites who wanted to attack and destroy four nations..Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran. Two have already been destroyed..Syria is being destroyed as we speak.

    As for India, it seems the nation is safe in the hands of BJP leaders. There is no doubt about their patriotism and dedication for the country. They have all the info and they are trustworthy when it comes to national security.

    Pakistan is a major problem, I think it is secretly still being supported by old masters..Saudi, UK and may be USA.
    This might change soon as Prez. Trump is not fond of Pakis and Paki influence in US is waning by the day.
    Americans do not like Pakis and India has earned the respect and admiration of American people.

    India must continue on the path of stronger and more powerful military to deal with Paki evil army heads whose existence and meaning depends on India hatred and spreading terrorism in Indian kashmir.

    At the end of the day, Trump is a businessman..and he will do what is good for business..there are good early signs that Prez Trump has positive feeling for India and has high regard for PM Modi.

    The eagle and elephant can join together and that could become an amazing partnership. Let Russia also join the party and that indicates end of Al Quida and bloody ISIS.
     
  10. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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  11. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Once again, American propaganda magazine pitching for making India a US ally.
    [​IMG]Image Credit: Flickr/ NATO
    India and NATO: Partners in Arms?
    The time is ripe for increased cooperation between India and the U.S.-led alliance.

    Recent Turnaround Events

    Fundamental Commonalities and Emerging Synergies

    Roadblocks for Cooperation

    Where To Next?
     
  12. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    India’s interests tilt eastwards, it walks a new tightrope
    India’s economic and strategic interests are hugely tied to the Indian Ocean, the 21st century’s theatre of huge rivalries. If Trump translates his rhetoric into reality, a harried China will be a nightmare there.
    WRITTEN BY RAM MADHAV |Updated: January 2, 2017 8:16 AM[​IMG]
     
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  13. dude00720

    dude00720 Regular Member

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  14. HariPrasad-1

    HariPrasad-1 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Pranav da told that very correctly. Emergence of a great power is never easy. For any stone to be a beautiful statue, it has to undergo many hammering, cuts and polishing. We can never be a great nation untill we fix our issues and set our frame work right. We can not allow that established forces to dominate the nation polity, economy and other spheres of influence. Arrival of Modi is a challenge to these establish forces. He has also re-engineered the international relation in very pragmatic way. His act east policy is an example. Many revolutionary steps have been taken to upgrade infrastructure to curb corruption. There are many new equation that are taking place. Country has emerged as a strong nation and people today hope that we get a respect that we deserve. We need to pursue our national interest very aggressively to emerge as a great and respectable nation.
     
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  15. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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  16. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    There’s An Indic Way Of Thinking About Foreign Policy But We Are Doing It The Wrong Way[​IMG]
    Datta Ray’s book provides some fascinating insights into the workings of India’s Ministry of External Affairs.

    Datta-Ray, Deep. The Making of Indian Diplomacy: A Critique of Eurocentrism. New Delhi: Oxford University Press, 2015. 380 pp.
    The Body of the Beast
    Intellectual Weltanshauung
     
  17. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    India is a Fourth Global Power on World Map along with US,Russia,China

    Never expected something positive about Indian Emergence from Pakistani Media, anyway, start watching from 6:30.:)
     
  18. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Welcome to an emerging Asia: India and China stop feigning friendship while Russia plays all sides[​IMG]
    In a hard place. (Reuters/Danish Siddiqui)

    [​IMG]Pawn for giants: China strives to curb the influence of the Dalai Lama, who lives in India. The religion emerged in India during 5th century BC and has numerous sects. (Data: Pew Research and Dalai Lama’s schedule)
     
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  19. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    [​IMG]Image Credit: Flickr/ MEAIndia
    At Raisina Dialogue, Modi's Blueprint for Indian Foreign Policy in 'Unsettled Times'
    India continues to reckon with what kind of power it wants to be, this time in acknowledgement of global shifts.
     
  20. Indx TechStyle

    Indx TechStyle War Mongerer Veteran Member Senior Member

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    by The Diplomat
    [​IMG]A view of the interior of the newly-constructed Lemon Tree Premier hotel, located outside the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi April 2, 2013. The cluster of hotels built here is known as Aerocity.
    Image Credit: REUTERS/Adnan Abidi
    Life In Aerocity: Finding India’s Place in the New Strategic Context
    “India will be a leading author in the next chapter of world politics.”

    Over the past three years, through periodic observations, I have measured the rise of New Delhi Aerocity, the commercial complex adjacent to Indira Gandhi International Airport. Unlike the unruly and burgeoning outskirts of this megacity – the teeming slums, clogged arteries, impromptu shrines and haphazard construction – Aerocity is sterile and organized, and, hopefully, a secure compound of paned-glass modernity. Like its cousins, Gurgaon’s DLF Cyber City and Noida’s Jaypee Sports City, Aerocity is a planned urban-development with a specific commercial design, in this case an international business hub intended to enhance the airport’s economic engine beyond aeronautical activities, a common characteristic of our futuristic global age.

    [​IMG]Aerocity construction Credit: Roncevert Ganan Almond
    In the shadow of the future, history always awaits in India. At Aerocity, the nearby Delhi Metro connects you to the city center, and within half an hour you can wander through Old Delhi to Kashmiri Gate, locus of the siege of Delhi, a key battle during the Mutiny of 1857. Sometimes known as India’s First War of Independence, an event credited by Karl Marx as a national revolt, the Mutiny ushered in a new age in the history of the subcontinent and the world: the establishment of the British Raj and direct colonial rule, the beginning of an end. The Congress party – of Gokhale, Tilak, Gandhi and Nehru – would be founded a generation later. The seeds of change were planted in the reddened soil of Delhi.
    With the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, a revolt of sorts, a new era appears in the making once again. As Arun Kumar Singh, the former Indian ambassador to the U.S., notes, the Trump presidency remains undefined; and it is unclear, in my view, whether President Trump will sustain America’s global leadership. In its report on global trends, prepared every four years for the incoming president, the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) describes an international landscape in flux, as the post-Cold War, unipolar moment has passed and the rules-based international order is being subject to revision. Without a doubt, India will be a leading author in the next chapter of world politics and the Asia-Pacific will be the manuscript upon which it is written.

    The new café at Aerocity, therefore, seemed like the appropriate place to consider the NIC’s findings and India’s place in the new strategic context.

    Victim of Success

    The period of the greatest globalization in the world economy – from 1989 to 2008 – fueled a historic rise in living standards for almost a billion people. As described by the NIC, the biggest “winners” included members of the new middle class in emerging economies, with India being an exemplary example. [Among the “losers” were lower-to-middle-income households of advanced economies, a political reality confirmed by the 2016 U.S. presidential election.]

    Beginning in the 1990s, India enacted liberalizing economic reforms fueling historic growth rates that crested in 2010. The scale and speed of the growth was exceptional: India doubled its per capita income in 17 years; the United Kingdom took 154 years to perform the same feat. As a result, many of the world’s households who graduated from subsistence – living in “extreme poverty” (below $2 a day) – reside in India. And with increased wealth comes increased hope.

    Among the global trends identified by the NIC is a growing distrust of governments and elites due to a widening gap between government performance and public expectations. In this vein, the rise of Narendra Modi, with his Gujurat-model, may be interpreted as a response to India’s economic downturn in 2011 and the perceived incapability of the Congress-led coalition government. In turn, the test for the prime minister is satisfying the increasing middle class sensibilities of his electorate while addressing India’s profound structural and societal challenges.

    Fortunately for South Block, the NIC predicts that India will be the world’s fastest growing economy during the next five years as China’s economy slows. At the same time, India is facing escalating demands for education and employment that accompany its rising, youthful population. According to the NIC report, India will need to create as many as 10 million jobs each year in the coming decades to meet new demand in the workforce. In the meantime, disruptive technologies like artificial intelligence and increased automation could eliminate jobs and place India in a middle-income trap. Insufficient opportunity may lead to radicalization of the country’s bulging youth.

    For example, in search of meaning and identity, disaffected youth could turn to religious and ethnic identity, which in India, despite its worthy efforts at promoting tolerance, could mean sharpened communal divisions. Recent protests in Chennai, the country’s fourth largest metropolitan area, asserting Tamil culture may be evidence of this phenomena. Moreover, India is projected to surpass Indonesia as having the world’s largest Muslim population in 2050. In the words of the NIC:

    “The perceived threat of terrorism and the idea that Hindus are losing their identity in their homeland have contributed to the growing support for Hindutva, sometimes with violent manifestations and terrorism. India’s largest political party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, increasingly is leading the government to incorporate Hindutva into policy, sparking increased tension in the current sizable Muslim minority as well as with Muslim-majority Pakistan and Bangladesh.”

    Added to this dynamic is the problem of widespread prenatal sex selection. The NIC projects that within 20 years, large parts of India will have 10 to 20 percent more men than women. Such societal imbalances – which take decades to mitigate – have been linked to abnormal levels of crime and human rights violations such as rape, human trafficking and sexual exploitation. Even if anecdotal, newspaper headlines of sexual violence, on any given day in Delhi, is a black and white reminder of this problem.

    In sum, the NIC warns that India could become a “victim of its own success” as the country’s growing prosperity leads to a “paradox of progress” where effective governance runs into the complications of the youth bulge, rapid urbanization, inadequate infrastructure, poor public health, severe environmental degradation, and exclusionary identity politics. Nowhere is this dynamic more evident than in India’s megacities.

    Megacity Mania

    By 2035, the NIC forecasts that more than three-fifths of the world’s population will live in urban areas, an approximate 7-percentage point increase from 2016. This means that an overwhelming majority of the world’s projected population of 8.8 billion (a 20 percent increase from today) will reside in cities. By this time India will have become the world’s most populous country with 1.5 billion people, almost half of whom (42.1 percent) will be urban dwellers; the subcontinent may have three of the world’s 10 biggest cities and 10 of its top 50.

    The challenge of megacities (measured at 10 million or more) is enormous. Again from the NIC report:

    “Although megacities often contribute to national economic growth, they also spawn sharp contrasts between rich and poor and facilitate the forging of new identities, ideologies, and movements. South Asia’s cities are home to the largest slums in the world, and growing awareness of the economic inequality they exemplify could lead to social unrest. As migrants from poorer regions move to areas with more opportunities, competition for education, employment, housing, or resources may stoke existing ethnic hatred, as has been the case in parts of India.”

    As Katherine Boo so memorably recorded, slums like Annawadi, adjacent to Mumbai’s Chhatrapati Shivaji International Airport, are scenes of intense human drama and immense tragedy. Slums can also overwhelm the capacity of local governments. From Google Earth you can see how Mumbai’s slums have altered the symmetry of the airport layout, with one arm of Terminal 2 stunted to account for the protruding tent city. These slums present a unique security threat, providing potential access for terrorists seeking to capitalize on the high-visibility and strategic value of Mumbai’s airport.

    And with rising urbanization comes increased pollution. The NIC reports that South Asia already has 15 of the world’s 25 most polluted cities, and more than 20 cities in India alone have air quality worse than Beijing’s. By 2035, air pollution is projected to be the top cause of environmentally related deaths worldwide. The incredible levels of Delhi’s air pollution already alter the daily lives and life spans of its citizens.

    Traffic on Delhi’s beltways – a snarling slow-moving parade of two-wheelers, three-wheelers, and four-wheelers (in addition to the occasional horse-drawn cart) – leaves one bleary-eyed and sniffling. Many days the air quality index (AQI) is “hazardous,” meaning that conditions causing “serious aggravation of heart or lung disease and premature mortality in persons with cardiopulmonary disease and the elderly” and “serious risk of respiratory effects in general population.” In order to curb pollution, the Supreme Court has intervened to enforce an odd-even system wherein daily vehicle-use is segregated based on license plate numbers.

    These new urban centers also serve as hotbeds for religious movements. For example, the NIC categorizes India’s Hindutva, or Hindu nationalism, as a “predominantly urban phenomenon.” In support, the report cites Shiv Sena – the most radical Hindutva political party – which has governed Mumbai for several decades. The future could see growing support for sectarian elements and the potential for violence in efforts to enforce cultural homogeneity in the community. For India, which still has fresh scars from Partition, this is not an idle threat. To borrow from Shiv Visvanathan, the “silences of Partition” could give rise to new and unpredictable voices. In measuring norms of democracy and tolerance, the NIC cautions that the world will look to see how India “tames its Hindu nationalist impulses.” Given India’s civilizational influence, the most attentive audience will be its neighbors.

    Limited War, Unlimited Consequences

    Since its founding modern India has struggled with securing its periphery – the frontier arch extending from the headwaters and tributaries of the Indus River to those of the Brahmaputra. In turn, India’s national security policy has focused on the immediate threat from Pakistan, volatility in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, and a lurking China peering over the Himalayas.

    The NIC counsels that Pakistan, unable to match India’s economic prowess, will seek other methods to maintain even a “semblance of balance.” The risk of conflict with Pakistan must be understood within a greater trend toward interstate conflict due to diverging interests among major powers, ongoing terrorist threats, continued instability in weak states, and the spread of lethal and disruptive technologies. According to the NIC report:

    “Future conflicts will increasingly emphasize the disruption of critical infrastructure, societal cohesion, and basic government functions in order to secure psychological and geopolitical advantages, rather than the defeat of enemy forces on the battlefield through traditional military means.”

    Weaker parties may resort to asymmetric warfare and surrogate attacks, a form of limited war, but with the potential for unlimited consequences in the case of nuclear-armed India and Pakistan.

    Indeed, New Delhi has struggled with finding the balance between “confrontation” and “engagement” with Islamabad, to paraphrase Srinath Raghavan in his keen contribution to Shaper Nations. In 2016 we witnessed a re-occurrence of this dynamic in Kashmir. India accused Pakistan of supporting incursions over the Line of Control (LOC), including by Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, a designated terrorist organization. In turn, New Delhi allegedly engaged in “surgical strikes” against Pakistani forces in Kashmir. Most recently, Modi signaled the terms for future engagement: “Pakistan must walk away from terror if it wants to walk towards dialogue with India.” The subcontinent’s security dilemma, however, may not allow for such tightrope finesse.

    The blurring of war and peace in South Asia may lead to potentially catastrophic violence. The NIC report predicts that Pakistan will seek to develop a credible nuclear deterrent by expanding its nuclear arsenal and delivery means, including short-range, “battlefield” nuclear weapons and a sea-based option, which lower the threshold for nuclear use. In one of its future mock scenarios, the NIC forecasts a “mushroom cloud in a desert in South Asia” – a nuclear exchange between Delhi and Islamabad – the first nuclear conflict since 1945.

    In a more positive frame, the NIC tributes India with being the region’s “greatest hope” to drive regional trade and development. As part of a broader effort to assert its role as the predominant regional power, the NIC predicts that New Delhi will expand its orbit by offering neighboring countries – Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Burma – a stake in India’s economic growth through development assistance and increased connectivity to India’s economy. In Afghanistan, New Delhi has sought to foster a direct and productive relationship, having spent more than $2 billion on economic cooperation.

    For China relations, the picture is complex. India must carry the burden of having an irredentist great power on its northern border. New Delhi is still recovering from shock of the 1962 war. Despite Indian objections, China is continuing to build the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which passes through Pakistan-controlled Kashmir. According to the NIC, China’s actions and indifference for India’s interests are driving New Delhi’s to balance and hedge. The strain in the bilateral relationship is further aggravated by Beijing’s position in world governing bodies.

    Seat at the Table

    Unsurprisingly India is seeking an expanded role in international institutions to match its increasing presence on the world stage. For example, New Delhi would like a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and membership in the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), a club of countries that contributes to non-proliferation by controlling access to nuclear technology. This is consistent with the NIC’s finding that states, in an attempt to gain new privileges, will seek to adjust the hierarchy in existing institutions.

    New Delhi is growing increasingly frustrated with Beijing’s blocking of India’s seat at the table of global governance. However, necessary reform of international institutions to reflect a new distribution of power is unlikely given conflicting interests among member states. The NIC foresees the exercise of veto power by key players:

    “Competing interests among major and aspiring powers will limit formal international action in managing disputes, while divergent interests among states in general will prevent major reforms of the UN Security Council’s membership. Many agree on the need to reform the UN Security Council, but prospects for consensus on membership reform are dim.”

    During this struggle, international norms and institutions may stagnate and decay. Joseph Nye warns that the U.S. may turn inward with a corresponding loss in global public goods. The global community may lose what my graduate professor Bob Keohane described as gains in cooperation, efficiency and interdependence from regimes developed over the course of the last century. A devolvement to regional bodies, spheres of influence, and improvised crisis-management will create new costs and uncertainty.

    One result of this 21st century disorder will be the strengthening of U.S.-India relations. The NIC characterizes India as “an increasingly important factor in the region as geopolitical forces begin to reshape its importance to Asia” and predicts that the United States and India “will grow closer than ever in their history.” Some of the foreign policy landmarks of former U.S. President Barack Obama’s legacy reflect this convergence: his announcement of U.S. support for India’s permanent UNSC seat; the decoupling of Pakistan from the U.S.-India relationship; and the U.S. backing of Delhi’s inclusion in the NSG despite earlier conflict related to nuclear proliferation. Indeed, India and the United States, as the world’s two largest democracies, will be key architects for building a future based on liberal values related to civil, political, and human rights.

    A State of Motion

    India faces significant challenges in moving forward to achieve its full potential. As the NIC observes, the country sits at the vanguard of global trends related to world trade, urbanization, environmental impact, terrorism, inter-state conflict, religious identity, and international governance. India must be prepared to shape its destiny, not be a passive participant in its “tryst with destiny.” The future of world politics requires an active and assertive India.

    Much like with the geopolitical landscape, construction continues here in Aerocity. Laborers, migrants from dry villages of the Gangetic plane and abandoned Himalayan hill stations, new megacity residents, enter each day to realize the promise of 21st century India. Swaying cranes, swinging shovels, rumbling bulldozers, Aerocity is in constant motion, kicking dust into the air, another layer in the fog above Delhi. When the jackhammer pauses, I put down the NIC report and look upward, in search of the sky.
     

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