India's strategic implications, challenges, opportunities and quest for great power status

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I had to post the topic a long back and must have collected many articles, but I got late. Now, got the mood with a fresh article and kicking it off. Just in few posts, you guys will come to know, what sort of stuff is to be posted here.:)
India's strategic implications, challenges, opportunities and quest for great power status in a Bipolar World
 

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Is India Dipping Its Toes In The Syrian Mess? – Analysis

India’s recently anointed Minister of State for External Affairs M J Akbar is currently on a nearly week-long visit to West Asia from August 17. A visit seen by some as using the minister’s astute understanding of the region’s complex interplay of religious and social forces to get a closer assessment of the ground situation in the Middle East. Some see it possibly as a precursor to the long awaited Indian move for a more ‘substantial’ role in the Middle East. On August 20, during his tour, Akbar was in Damascus where he met with the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
During the meeting Assad reportedly said that India as a growing power has a role to play in meeting the challenge of terrorism and the two countries agreed to upgrade their security consultations. Assad also invited India to play an active role in the reconstruction of the Syrian economy. Both leaders agreed that as secular nations, India and Syria believe in faith equality.
The geopolitics in the Middle East has hit a troubling note post the failed coup attempt in Turkey. A week before Akbar, Chinese Rear Admiral Guan Youfei was in Damascus to meet Syrian Defence Minister Fahd Jassem al-Freij. Guan is head of the Office for International Military Cooperation under the Central Military Commission that oversees China’s 2.3 million-member armed forces. The Chinese military, it appears, wanted to use Guan’s trip to better understand the current state of events in Syria, where over 300,000 people have died and over four million of its citizens have been displaced in the fratricidal many-sided conflict. According to Xinhua News Agency he also met the following day with a Russian general who is coordinating Russia’s military assistance to the Syrian regime.
Xinhua went on to say that Guan expressed China’s willingness to boost military cooperation with Syria, and reportedly the Chinese Defence Ministry said that both sides agreed to expand personnel training and humanitarian aid via the Chinese military. Chinese military advisers are on the ground in Syria helping train soldiers in the use of weapons purchased from China, which include sniper rifles, rocket launchers and machine guns.
The Chinese outreach comes even as Russia, as distinct from its ‘drawdown’ a few months back, is reportedly prepared for a longer stay in Syria. Iran, on the other hand, is pushing the limits of the terms of its nuclear deal by allowing Russian warplanes to use its Hamedan air base in western Iran as a launching pad for strikes in Syria. A top Iranian lawmaker was quoted as saying that Russia would use the base primarily as a refuelling transit point for sorties over Syria. There is also a pending Russian request to launch cruise missiles over Iranian airspace.
Though the Iranians have been quite open regarding the involvement of their Revolutionary Guards in Syria and Iraq, in a recent interview published in the Mashregh News, a retired commander of the Revolutionary Guard was reported as saying that the Iranians are reorganising their militias into a so-called ‘Liberation Army,’ which would include foreign fighters and will be deployed to fight abroad. This is a move sure to rile the Saudis. Iran is backing President Assad in Syria, advising Shia militias in Iraq, and supporting Houthi fighters in Yemen.
The Saudis, after flexing the muscle of their 34-nation Islamic anti-terror coalition, are increasing the intensity of their fight in Yemen for an early closure. They are supported in the conflict by the Gulf emirates. The US, which had being providing material and intelligence support to the Saudis in Yemen, have indicated that they are scaling down their advisors involved in Yemen with the Saudis and the US Congress has been making noises about stopping weapon sales to Saudi Arabia because of the human rights excesses by the Saudis in Yemen.
Post the Putin-Erdogan talks and the fall of Manbij on the Turkey-Syria border to the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, Turkey with a purged military and reeling under Islamic State (IS) orchestrated terror attacks, has just declared that it will play a “more active “ role in Syria. With Turkish Special Forces already operating on Syrian territory and strategically important city of Aleppo surrounded by the Syrian government forces, it remains to be seen if Turkey acts in concert with the Russian plan or has one of its own.
India’s policy on the Middle East has so far served Indian domestic interests well, despite some observers criticising the government for not addressing the humanitarian issues in the region. However fast changing geopolitical developments, falling price of oil, energy security, regional security implications and the impact on Indians working abroad in the Middle East would compel the government to make sure its current policy adapts to these changes.
With an impending visit to Israel and Palestine by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, it remains to be seen how M J Akbar’s ongoing assessment of the Middle East geopolitics influences India’s Middle East policy.
 

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IDN TAKE: Militarization Of South China Sea – Golden Opportunity for India

Area of contention between different nations in the South China Sea region
The South China Sea disputes involve both island and maritime claims among several sovereign states within the region, namely Brunei, China, Taiwan, Malaysia, and Vietnam. China claims the entire South China Sea by its historical nine dotted lines.
In 2014 People's Republic of China government started reclamation activity to construct a large artificial island to support an approximately 3,300 meters (10,800 ft) airstrip and seaport on Fiery Cross Reef, also known as "Northwest Investigator Reef", Yongshu Island or Yongshu Reef by the Chinese, in the South China Sea. The area is controlled by China and is also claimed by the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Fiery Cross Reef was occupied by china in 1988 and in 2014 it was converted into an artificial island of 2.74 sq. km. There were around 200 Chinese soldiers on the reef in 2014, though this number would have significantly increased till now, the entire island has been converted into an airbase with early warning radars to check the activities of other claimants of the reefs.
This reclamation activity of China raised the immediate alarm bells in other countries involved in South China Sea dispute (Taiwan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei), this also triggered the start of militarization of entire region as all these countries were wary of growing military clout of China and thus in order to safeguard their interests these countries started upgrading their military resources and increased their defense budgets. In this pursuit of upgrading of military infrastructure, these countries got closer to countries such as USA, Australia, Japan and India for getting military assistance to improve their infrastructure.
Now this entire scenario of South China Sea may look bleak for the Asia-Pacific region security but for India it provides a golden opportunity to consolidate its stake against China, for long India has been victim of Chinese aggression and bullying nature as India was not strong economically and militarily to respond back, China’s open support to “terrorist factory of the world” Pakistan and its unaccounted military and economic aid to Pakistan is a headache for India. China also played a major role in Pakistan nuclear program resulting in the creation of nuclear bombs by Pakistan and thus created a migraine for the entire world. In 2016 when India’s is growing rapidly economically and militarily South China Sea dispute provides perfect opportunity for India to give tit for tat treatment to China, India has strengthened its defense and economic ties with Vietnam, India has provided $100 million concessional line of credit to Vietnam for purchasing defense equipment and is also mulling to provide lethal “Brahmos Cruise missiles” to it, additionally India has also moved its defense ties closer to the Philippines, another country party to South China Sea dispute, recently India has won the contract for building of Frigates for Philippines navy.
China after International Court ruling on the South China Sea is already at back foot, as Court has outright rejected the China claim of entire South China Sea in addition to this US, Japan, and other G-7 countries has increased their pressure on China to abide by the ruling. US and Japan have increased the patrolling in the South China Sea without giving any heed to warnings of China and India in collaboration with Vietnam has started exploring Oil in the South China Sea, thus putting a wide question mark on the claims of China. Utilizing this vulnerability of China is in India’s interest if it has to overcome the Chinese pressure on its borders, China has never given any importance to India’s concerns and the latest example of it was Failed NSG bid of India due to Chinese protest, China has continued to carry on development work in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir even after number of reminders by India that this land belongs to India and it is disputed.
If we consider entire Asian and African region as a game of chess then it will be clear that both India and China are putting their pawns in form of ports, military base and economic aid in different countries, like China has created Gwadar port in Pakistan, Chittagong in Bangladesh, Hambantota in Srilanka, deep water port in Myanmar, Port in Djibouti etc, India has responded by creating Chabahar port in Iran, Naval base in Seychelles, Naval base in Mauritius and upgrading the ports in Andaman and Nicobar Islands . China has infiltrated India’s backyard inform of Bangladesh, Myanmar, and Srilanka, and South China Sea dispute has given the golden opportunity to India to make its presence felt in Vietnam and Philippines the China’s backyard. In this game, the stakes are high for India and it totally depends on Indian diplomacy and will that how it utilizes South China Sea dispute to force India’s interests in China.
 

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IDN TAKE: Militarization Of South China Sea – Golden Opportunity for India

Area of contention between different nations in the South China Sea region





Very good article .

Modi Doval combo has now started with "two eyes for one" attitude.I have read online somewhere that aggression may backfire but we can't live with our pride held to the wall. China long played paki card which is now getting worn out and India is giving a befitting reply to both neighbors,be it growing diplomatic relations in SCS or feeding the Baloch mirchi.
 

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Too long article. Not writing in quote for easier read.
India's new rules of engagement
Photo-illustration
Offensive defence. The phrase is an oxymoron that originates from the adage, "the best defence is a good offence". The principle behind it is to be proactive rather than passive when attacked, thereby regaining the strategic advantage and cramping an opponent's ability to launch a counter-offensive. Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu was a key advocate of this idea, as was Italian philosopher and diplomat Niccolo Machiavelli. George Washington had employed it to good effect more than 200 years ago when he fought America's War of Independence. Mao Zedong, too, was a firm believer of the tactic while leading the 1949 Chinese Revolution.

Now, Prime Minister Narendra Modi joins the long list of leaders who have sought to employ this curiously phrased approach to their advantage. In his Independence Day address this year, Modi stunned the Pakistani ruling establishment, which had launched a major international offensive against India following the recent turmoil in Kashmir, by signalling his willingness to take the battle deep into its territory.

From the ramparts of the Red Fort, Modi stated: "Today, I want to greet and express my thanks to some people. In the last few days, the people of Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir have thanked me, have expressed gratitude, and expressed good wishes for me. The people who are living far away, whom I have never seen, never met-such people have expressed appreciation for the Prime Minister of India, for 125 crore countrymen. This is an honour for our countrymen."

MODI'S BOLD GAMBIT

Modi's mention of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK) was par for the course, as India always regarded reclaiming Gilgit-Baltistan as the "unfinished business of Partition". But making common cause with the people of the troubled Balochistan province of Pakistan infuriated Islamabad and startled capitals across the world. The ostensible reason was the alleged human rights violations by the Pakistan Army against the protesters who were demanding azadi. But it was viewed as more than just a tit-for-tat response to Pakistan's charges of 'brutality' by the Indian security forces in the Kashmir Valley. Modi was clearly warning Pakistan that India was changing the rules of engagement from its current posture of conciliation to an offensive defence. India was now willing to get tough-and rough, if needed. The implication was that India had decided to make it a costly proposition for Pakistan to back terror groups and strikes.


By upping the ante, the Indian prime minister had slapped the Pakistan Army, particularly its chief Raheel Sharif, with a direct challenge. The army had thwarted any effort by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to improve relations with India and is suspected to have engineered the attack on the Pathankot air base this January. India was indicating that it was willing to stir the pot in territories far removed from the Line of Control (LoC). In doing so, Modi was making an audacious gambit fraught with risks.
There were questions raised about whether this was more of a tactical manoeuvre by India to deflect world attention from the ongoing turmoil in Kashmir. Also, whether Modi had thought through taking on Pakistan and China simultaneously, as the move also challenged Beijing's vital interests in Balochistan. It raised several other concerns: How can India seek world action against Pakistan's continuing perfidy if it is also seen to be backing separatists? Would India cede the moral high ground in its war against terror if it got involved in Balochistan? Also, if Pakistan raised the stakes and carried out a series of attacks on Indian territory, was India prepared to retaliate strongly and even risk a nuclear war?

THE YO-YO EFFECT
From bonhomie to badmouthing, Modi has seen it all in a short span of two years while trying to build relations with India's hostile neighbour. Opposition parties have charged Modi with following a "yo-yo policy" with Pakistan that is largely knee-jerk, lacks cohesion and has no long-term strategy. Modi backers quote Churchill's dictum that "consistency is the virtue of only donkeys". A senior official points out, "You cannot be brain-dead to what the other guy is doing. If the situation is rapidly changing in Pakistan, how can your policy not change? Should we be consistent if Pakistan is inconsistent?"
To his credit, Modi was quick off the blocks with his "neighbourhood first" policy by inviting Nawaz Sharif along with other South Asian leaders for his swearing-in ceremony in May 2014. But the mood changed when foreign secretary-level talks were called off, with India accusing Pakistan of crossing the red line by playing the Hurriyat card. Then, a meeting between Modi and Sharif at Ufa in Russia in July 2015 produced a ray of hope before ending in a fiasco, with talks between the two national security advisors being called off over whether Sartaj Aziz could meet the Hurriyat leaders or not when he came to Delhi. India was clear there would be no third party in the negotiations with Pakistan and would call off talks if Islamabad disrespected it.
Relations were repaired when Modi met Sharif at the sidelines of the Climate Change Summit in Paris in November 2015. Within weeks, there was a breakthrough with Union minister for external affairs Sushma Swaraj announcing in Islamabad, along with her Pakistani counterpart Sartaj Aziz, that the two countries had agreed to restart what they called a Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue. The word 'bilateral' was inserted on the insistence of India to ensure that the Hurriyat would not be involved in the negotiations. The announcement signalled the resumption of formal talks seven years after these were called off, following the Mumbai attack. In a grand gesture, Modi made an impromptu stopover at Lahore on Christmas to greet Sharif on his birthday. Everyone was all smiles, till the Pathankot attack happened a week later.
The attack on the Pathankot air base by heavily armed groups resulted in the death of eight Indians, including seven security personnel, apart from four attackers. For once, Pakistan didn't deny that the attackers were operating from its soil and pointed to the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) as being responsible. Sharif even had an FIR registered in Gujranwala, based on documents given by India. Then, in April 2016, India agreed to allow a Joint Investigative Team from Pakistan to visit Pathankot to collect evidence for the case-another first.
However, Pakistan inexplicably cooled off when India insisted that, as reciprocity demanded, its investigation agency team go to Gujranwala to cross-examine those arrested. Pakistan High Commissioner Abdul Basit blamed India for embarrassing Sharif by leaking out unsubstantiated findings from the JIT's visit, breaking the understanding that secrecy would be maintained. He also claimed there was no agreement on reciprocity. India's deduction was that a serious battle for power between the two Sharifs had broken out and changed the ground dynamics for better relations. The assessment would prove accurate.

SHARIF VS SHARIF
In late April, the Panama Papers, containing 11 million documents held by a Panama-based law firm, were leaked. They exposed links between many political leaders and businessmen around the world and revealed the details of offshore companies and accounts. For Nawaz Sharif, this was bad news. The documents showed three of his children owned offshore companies that were not shown in his family's wealth statement. On the defensive, Sharif rejected the charges and said he would institute an inquiry under a retired judge, but that suggestion was nixed by the Opposition. Army Chief Raheel Sharif chose the occasion to state that terrorism could not be checked unless the "menace of corruption" was not curbed.
Raheel Sharif had grown in popularity after he successfully launched full-fledged army operations, called Zarb-e-Azb, to wipe out Taliban groups inimical to Pakistan in its North Waziristan and Swat regions. He was also credited with cleansing Sindh of terrorists and restoring law and order in strife-torn Karachi. Raheel is to retire this November, and there has been much speculation in the past few months over whether the Nawaz Sharif government will be forced to give him an extension. The power tussle between the two has impacted Pakistan's relations with India, with the army chief disapproving of Nawaz Sharif's 'softness' towards Modi. This tension began to manifest itself almost immediately on the LoC, with the Indian Army reporting that infiltration attempts went up and money flowed from across the border to militant groups.
Meanwhile, China began to increase its efforts to build the $46 billion China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which it had announced the previous year. Described as a "game-changer", China proposes to build a highway which runs from Kashgar in China, through PoK, including Gilgit-Baltistan, right up to Gwadar in Balochistan, on the edge of the Persian Gulf. The plan also includes building power projects that will add 10,400 MW to the grid and ease Pakistan's power shortage. India vociferously protested to China, saying they were building the highway through the disputed territory of PoK. Raheel flew to China to seal a deal that would give army protection to the whole project (see accompanying report).
Under its all-powerful president Xi Jinping, China also began to assert itself aggressively on international issues. India felt the heat when it openly backed Pakistan and vetoed India's membership for the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). China also blocked a move at the UN Security Council to bring sanctions against JeM chief Masood Azhar despite India's protests. Emboldened by China's support, Pakistan began meddling in Kashmir again with renewed vigour. Then, much to Pakistan's glee, Kashmir began to spin out of control because of internal dissensions in India.

THE KASHMIR TRIGGER
When the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and the BJP formed the historic coalition government, with Mufti Mohammed Sayeed as the chief minister of Jammu & Kashmir, in January 2015, Pakistan was dismayed. It had hoped to prey on the fractured mandate in the assembly elections, but the coming together of the Hindu right-wing BJP with the Muslim soft-separatist PDP put paid to its plans. Sayeed had hoped to be the bridge between his state and India and between India and Pakistan, but that was not to be. His untimely death in January 2016 propelled his reluctant daughter, Mehbooba Mufti, to power.
Mehbooba's supporters in Kashmir were uncomfortable with the alliance with the BJP, and she refused to assume charge till Modi put in a set of confidence-building measures in place. Barely three months after she took over as the state's first woman chief minister, security forces killed Burhan Muzaffar Wani in an encounter in Kokernag on July 8. Though he was proclaimed as the poster-boy of the new militancy sweeping the Valley, security and police forces regarded him largely as a 'virtual tiger' because of his extensive use of social media.
Both the state and central government underestimated the backlash that would follow, and did not take adequate security measures for his funeral, for which there was a massive turnout, followed by a wave of protests. Wani's death proved to be the trigger for simmering discontent that had spread in the Valley, especially among the youth. The resultant confrontation with security forces has led to more than 68 deaths, and parts of the Valley have been under curfew for over a month-and-a-half.
Though much of the initial uprising was spontaneous, Pakistan seized the opportunity and reportedly activated its dormant cells in the Valley to add fuel to the flames. It simultaneously launched an international propaganda campaign on Kashmir. Under pressure, Nawaz Sharif, who had so far maintained a restraint in his statements against India, stepped up the rhetoric, saying that it was 'obligatory' of him to become the "voice of Kashmir". He shot off letters to the UN Secretary General and the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, urging them to intervene to end the "persistent and egregious violation of basic human rights". Part of the noise was for electoral politics in PoK, with the so-called Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK) elections being held last month, and Sharif's party, the PML (N), winning a majority.
Meanwhile, Modi moved swiftly to bring the situation under control. Union home minister Rajnath Singh was sent to the state to provide whatever assistance was required. The prime minister then held an all-party meeting to discuss the best course of action and bring a unity of purpose. Modi and his team were angered by Pakistan's demand for a foreign secretaries' meeting to discuss Kashmir's internal situation. Rajnath too was shown discourtesy when he went to Islamabad for the SAARC summit, where Pakistan interior minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan didn't attend the lunch he had hosted. There was also the much tom-tommed arrest in Balochistan of Kulbhushan Jadhav, who was charged with being an Indian spy (South Block called it 'absurd'), and was refused consular access by Pakistan. It was then that Modi, ever willing to take risks, went on the offensive and played the Balochistan card.

WHY THE 'B' WORD
Why Balochistan? Simply because, apart from being Pakistan's largest and most backward province, it provides a strategic passage to West Asia and Central Asia. The province harbours the Gwadar port, whose modernisation China has invested in heavily, along with leasing mines to tap its abundant gold and copper deposits. Much of the ambitious CPEC project cuts through Balochistan, making it of crucial importance.
Balochistan is also Pakistan's Achilles' heel. It has a 2,500-km border with Afghanistan and Iran that has been the hotbed of cross-border militancy and strife. Since the merger with Pakistan in 1948, the Balochis have waged periodic battles for both autonomy and azadi that have often been brutally crushed by the Pakistan security forces. India's external intelligence agency, the Research & Analysis Wing (RAW), has been regularly accused by Islamabad of fomenting insurgency, though it has never come up with convincing proof.
In 2009, when Manmohan Singh, as prime minister, permitted the mention of Balochistan in a joint statement with his Pakistan counterpart Yousaf Raza Gilani at Sharm el-Sheikh, he was castigated for his 'blunder' by BJP leaders, who said "the waters of the seven seas won't be able to wash the shame". It was seen as conceding that India was meddling in Pakistan's affairs and Manmohan was forced to backtrack. It must be galling to the former prime minister that while he was accused of being timid for putting Balochistan on the table, Modi's statements are being hailed as bold and brave by experts.
Modi's backers dismiss criticism about having double standards on Balochistan. A senior official pointed out that when Manmohan mentioned the B-word, it was a defensive reaction to accusations made by Pakistan that India was stirring trouble in Balochistan, and he had agreed to discuss their concerns. In Modi's case, he argues, India is on the offensive by charging Pakistan with human rights violations in Balochistan. Using a cricketing analogy, he says, "If you pick up a bat and get bowled, it's not the same thing as me hitting it for a six."
To criticism from Pakistan that India had crossed the 'red line' while invoking Balochistan, India's foreign affairs spokesperson Vikas Swarup retorted, "Pakistan recognises no red lines in its own diplomacy. Its record of cross-border terrorism and infiltration is at the heart of the problem of the region today." He also pointed out that India had raised concerns about human rights violations in Balochistan several times in the past. Another official asked whether there is an 'unwritten rule' that India and Pakistan keep their conversations to disagreements and violent activities in Kashmir. Pakistan is known to have gone beyond Kashmir in the past, extending support to the Khalistan movement and facilitating terror strikes in Mumbai and Pathankot. As the official puts it, "If they are not playing by the Queensberry rules, should we be doing it?" Pakistan's worry is that National Security Advisor A.K. Doval is an offensive defence expert and months before he took charge, he warned Pakistan: "If you do another Mumbai, you will lose Balochistan."

THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
The space for reconciliation between the two countries is narrowing rapidly. Pakistan has instigated activists all over the country to demonise Modi and burn his effigies to whip up nationalistic support on Balochistan. Pakistan officials charge Modi and the RSS of creating a divide with the ulterior motive of winning the forthcoming elections in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. A Pakistan official said that India is mistaken if it thinks it can destabilise either Balochistan or Gilgit-Baltistan.
Modi and his team's calculus is that the world is not going to poke its nose into Kashmir. After the Nice, Brussels and Paris attacks, the world has no sympathy for terrorists posing as freedom-fighters. As an official put it, "If Burhan Wani was in their country, would he have been tolerated? Also, Kashmir is like a Ranji match between India and Pakistan, not the Ashes-so Pakistan won't gain any traction." The prime minister has wisely engaged the entire political spectrum on what to do next in Kashmir. He has heeded former J&K chief minister Omar Abdullah's request to "find a more permanent solution" by engaging all political forces.
By raising Balochistan, Modi has succeeded in blunting Pakistan's offensive on Kashmir and also addressed the public demand for a strong answer. But it has limited tactical utility. While Iran and Afghanistan may be happy that India is taking on Pakistan on Balochistan, they would be wary as they have sizeable populations of Balochis in their respective countries. China, too, may begin to flex its muscle, and India would find it difficult to combat two foes on its borders. So Modi needs to follow intent with action. He needs to have an organised game plan to follow through in a carefully calibrated manner. Modi has shown that he is capable of thinking out of the box. But he has to be careful not to be boxed in by his actions.
 

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PM Narendra Modi’s Vietnam visit is to signal India’s presence in South-East Asia

Delhi and Hanoi have drawn closer to each other over the past decade amid China's growing aggression and ambitions in SE Asia including South China Sea (SCS) region.
NEW DELHI: Narendra Modi's to visit Vietnam on September 3 enroute to China for the G-20 Summit signalingIndia's growing strategic presence in South East Asia in Beijing's periphery. Delhi is expected to offer additional support to Hanoi's military establishment, including finance and training, assistance to space sector, greater investments besides acquiring possible stakes in supplementary hydrocarbon blocks.
While the highlight of PM's day-long visit will be signing of contract for supply of four patrol boats to Vietnamese military under the $100 -million line of credit that was extended during its PM's India visit in October 2014, India could offer additional financial support in building capacity of Hanoi's military establishment and may increase quota for training of armed forces personnel and undertake further repair and maintenance of defence hardware, hinted persons familiar with the developments. India's support to Vietnam's defence sector is aimed at augmenting capacity of the Southeast Asian nation's military establishment.
Vietnam — the current country coordinator for India in the ASEAN -- has an expanding strategic partnership with India in the region in more than one way. Today, Hanoi besides Singapore is among the two top strategic partners in ASEAN. While the growing defence partnership --based on common Russian military platform — has captured the popular imagination, maritime and cyber security covers the other areas of security cooperation, hinted official sources. A key outcome of the visit could be a document on cyber security partnership.
Built on the bonhomie of the Cold War era when India extended emotional and moral support to the forces fighting American military, Delhi and Hanoi have drawn closer to each other over the past decade amid China's growing aggression and ambitions in SE Asia including South China Sea (SCS) region. That he chose to visit Vietnam, a claimant in SCS, ahead of China and later Laos for East and ASEAN Summits itself has a symbolic significance.
Experts of India-Vietnam affairs, however, point out that both sides prefer to keep key strands of the strategic partnership under wraps to avoid reaction from Beijing. While India is not militarily active in South China Sea (SCS) region and advocates peaceful resolution, Delhi has asserted that it favours rules based global order based on UNCLOS and against unilateral actions after the Arbitration Court in Hague on July 12 dismissed Beijing's historical claims in SCS in a case vis a vis Philippines.
India has been advocating Freedom of Navigation in international waters including SCS --key sea lane of communication for substantial part of India's global trade. It may be recalled Vietnam is the only country in the region whose military has experience of fighting China in late 1970s, 1980s and again in mid 1990s over territorial matters including claims in SCS.
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Vietnam|South China Sea|SEA|Narendra Modi|India|Cyber Security
 

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India and Vietnam: Long Lost Cousins?
Emphasising on the need to strengthen the bonds between India and Vietnam, the author enumerates the areas of cooperation between the two countries.
By Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee
Tagore poetically stated that the closeness that people of India and Vietnam shared had a link that was embedded in history. The cultural and economic relations between the two date back to the ages of the Champa and later, the Mauryan and Gupta civilisations. The links embedded in Buddhism, language, social structure, as well as mindset, has made rebuilding linkages much easier than others.
A Historical Link
Vietnam remains among the most important South-east Asian nation for India’s security interests. People of Vietnam resolutely supported the freedom struggle in India; and while facing international reprimand, India stood by Vietnam in its testing times during the 60s and 70s.
People of Vietnam resolutely supported the freedom struggle in India; and India stood by Vietnam in Vietnam’s testing times during the 60s and 70s.
The two had strategically remained closer to the Soviet Union than the US or China due to ideological differences, their individual strategic relations with either US or China, relations with neighbours, and Cold War politics. Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and President Ho Chi Minh made state visits during the 50s, making the Indian Prime Minister the first to visit Hanoi. India also supported the Hanoi government during the Vietnam War.
The relationship in between India and Vietnam started getting a formal shape after India joined the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996. Within that time frame, India established a MoU on defence cooperation with Malaysia, which established a Malaysia-India Defence Cooperation Meeting (MIDCOM) at the senior officer level. Politically, Vietnam was a viable option for Indian decision makers as the other neighbours Myanmar was under a strong military junta, while Cambodia and Laos had strict communist regimes. India had close economic and strategic links with Singapore, while Thailand’s closer ties with China has instigated India to build a closer link with Vietnam. Presently, the Indian government provided a $100 million credit line in October 2015 to help Vietnam in defence procurement and the modernisation of its armed forces, including submarine training. This line of credit is being utilised by Vietnam presently for procurement of four Offshore Patrol Boats for their Border Guards.
India assured Vietnam of its full commitment to the strategic partnership between the two countries during a meeting in New Delhi between former Vietnamese defence minister PhùngQuang Thanh and Prime Minister Narendra Modi in May 2015.
During Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung’s visit, India agreed to supply four naval patrol vessels to Vietnam, increase the level of training of its military personnel, and raise its involvement in Vietnam’s energy sector. India’s entry into the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) would legitimise and speed up the process of selling the BrahMos to Vietnam. The recent strategic engagement with Vietnam has been seen by many analysts as the Indian desire to protect its investments in the oil fields off Vietnam’s coast while strengthening Vietnamese naval power.
India’s Strategic and Commercial Interests
India has always stressed on freedom of navigation and over-flight, and unimpeded navigation in the South China Sea region. India signed an agreement with Vietnam in October 2011 to expand and promote oil exploration in the South China Sea and then reconfirmed its decision to carry on.
The ingrained economic relations that Vietnam and China share and the geographical closeness, make China an important neighbour, though not strategically unreliable. It is full of Vietnamese interests to tacitly strengthen its position militarily, without disturbing the regional balance. It has been one of the motivators of building a close strategic and defence cooperation with India, which had significant similarity in the defence hardware, along with a significant leverage in technology and skill.
According to former deputy prime minister of Vietnam Vu Khoan, “We understand that our country, in comparison with China, is a small one…Although they say friendship, they have invaded our territory. Ultimately, China must respect our nation and our sovereignty. Otherwise, Vietnamese will be ‘allergic’ to China”.

India has been participating actively in the modernisation of the defence forces of Vietnam. | Photo Courtesy: Passel
Vietnamese Defense Modernisation and India
Vietnam also turned its eye towards military modernization during the last five years. Vietnam is partnering with India to build a jointly operated satellite data transmission station.
Participation in Vietnamese modernization of defence forces by India will not only strengthen the diplomatic and military bond between both the nations but also open the doors of strategic exports.
The recent visit by Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar to Vietnam in June 2016 to discuss new initiatives in the military sector. Both defence ministers discussed the need for sharing white shipping information to facilitate an exchange of data in the maritime domain. The two sides also focused on enhancing hydrographic cooperation. The major areas that has been identified for working together are for upgrade of Soviet legacy systems, up gradation of Thermal Sights and Fire Control Systems for – BMP, T 54 and T 55 Tanks, upgrade of MI 17 / Mi 8 Helicopters, Shipbuilding Programmes, Missile Systems from India and Software Defined Radios for Vietnam. The Indian defence minister stated that he desired Indian private sector to lead the initiative and explore and actively participate in Vietnamese modernization of defence forces. This will not only strengthen the diplomatic and military bond between both the nations but also open the doors of strategic exports (Indian Express, June 6, 2016).
India’s joint counter-piracy patrols help shore up sea lines of communications (SLOCs). Both the countries’ navies are also part of MILAN, a multinational exercise and interaction with the navies of South East Asia [Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei and the Philippines] in the Bay of Bengal. It was initiated in 1995 and is a biennial gathering hosted by the Indian Navy.
Suggested Areas of Cooperation
There are multiple avenues that can strengthen defence and strategic cooperation between these two nations:
  • An area of defence cooperation in between India and Vietnam is in providing training to submariners particularly in regard to the Russian submarines.
  • Indian Air Force can actively cooperate through the training of technicians of the Sukhoi Aircraft as well as pilots on an annual basis. This arrangement can be set up in collaboration with the Indian Air Force, where a five-member training team can provide operational training to the young Vietnamese pilots.
  • Vietnam also lacks in the manufacturing of small arms which is associated with coastal security. There is significant scope for the manufacture of assault rifles that is used by Indian Coast Guard personnel. The Indian defence establishment can also set up manufacturing facilities of carbines and small range missiles for which the potential buyers will be both from India and Vietnam.
  • Both countries can work out a coastal defence mechanism to integrate coordination between marine or sea police, coastguards and navy, to thwart away attacks on commercial or strategic installations along the coast of both the countries.
  • Another area of cooperation remains to be the area of nano and microsatellite technology. Both India and Vietnam hold a wide range of offshore assets, including oil exploration sites and islands. The security of these assets should be reinforced by better aerial surveillance systems; and in this regard, the scientific and technological institutions along with universities that have developed itself on such research can undertake pioneering research based projects. These satellites can be used for geospatial mapping as well as for gathering environmental data and sea explorations.
  • There are other defence collaborative possibilities. The case of exporting Dhruv and Kamov helicopters, which are produced under Russian license, to Vietnam will also remain beneficial. The versatility of the Kamov helicopters would remain significant as they are efficient for monitoring and undertaking difficult terrain operations. India has also developed the Griffon/GRSE 8000 TD, a multi-purpose hovercraft which has been inducted by the Indian Coast Guard. Such technology will certainly benefit the Vietnamese Marine Police significantly.
Assessment
With the rise of the Asian century, there is a need to strengthen the ancient bonds that existed before. With various strategic regional forums in place, India with a robust expertise in defence and space technologies and hardware production is slowly turning into a destination as well as a viable partner for such forums. India and Vietnam have come a long way together, fostering a relationship based on mutual trust and understanding.
With the fast-changing scenario in the neighbourhood and the rising challenges that are faced by Vietnam, India can play a larger role in strengthening the regional strategic theatre by coming closer to Vietnam in the strategic and defence sectors.
With the sharing of each other’s expertise and technological know-how, together they can counter the larger powers at play, threatening the regional stability and strategic maritime routes.
Dr Dhrubajyoti Bhattacharjee is a Research Fellow at the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), Sapru House, New Delhi.
 

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Why India needs an overarching strategic discourse in national interest
To recall the wise words of Robert Greene who advocates interest calls the ‘Grand Strategy’, be prepared to lose battles but win the war.

For the first time Arup Raha, India’s serving Air force Chief came out with a strong indictment of India’s lopsided foreign policy post-independence in an apparent reference to the much contentious Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK). To quote, “Our foreign policy was enshrined in the charter of the Non-Aligned Movement and the Panchsheel doctrines. We have been governed by high ideals and we did not follow a pragmatic approach, to my mind the security needs. When hoards of raiders attacked Jammu and Kashmir in 1947 a military solution was in sight, taking moral high ground, I think we went to the UN for a peaceful solution to this problem. The problem still continues, PoK still remains a thorn in our flesh today.”
Meanwhile, the Indian Express has begun a poll seeking opinions from readers if they agreed or not if India could have taken PoK militarily? However time and again, the key point being missed by the media or any other relevant stakeholder is that there is no argument or for that matter a debate or a discussion on whether India lacked strategic impetus with respect to its foreign policy vis-a-vis national interests.
Arup Raha’s words signify how India lacked the strategic culture in determining its foreign policy to suit national interests. Since independence and well up to the 90s, India has witnessed elected governments unabashedly compromising national interest at critical junctures. These Governments of the day have always opted for a safe passage (the Non-Alignment Movement being a prime example) instead of pragmatic solutions in asserting India’s place and unfortunately these wounds still hurt the country.
For instance, staying with PoK, a pertinent question which remains unanswered till date is why didn’t the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi order the liberation of PoK and Gilgit-Baltistan after East Pakistan’s liberation in 1971, considering that these areas are an integral part of India’s territory under illegal Pakistani occupation.
Another strategic blunder with respect to Jammu and Kashmir was again committed thanks to Indira Gandhi, who ordered the release of 93,000 war prisoners in East Pakistan under the 1972 Shimla Agreement. Senior retired intelligence officers like late B. Raman in his writings have questioned the return of prisoners without insisting on a formal recognition in writing by Pakistan that Jammu and Kashmir is an integral part of India? This question has not just confounded but continued to bleed India.
However, having produced one of the world’s finest strategic minds in Chanakya, India has not been deprived of strategic thinking in contemporary history. Traces of this were witnessed under then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao which has been recorded aptly by Vinay Sitapati in the ‘Half Lion – how P.V. Narasimha Rao transformed India’. A noteworthy excerpt from the book is about when India realised that the road to Washington DC passed through Tel Aviv. On inputs from government and intelligence officials, Narasimha Rao led India to vote in favour of Israel at the UN in 1991. Interestingly that same month, Rao decided to invite the Palestine leader late Yasser Arafat - who understood and acknowledged that any choice of the Indian Government will be respected - to Delhi for a bilateral. And in January, 1992, India announced full diplomatic relations with Israel.
India’s composite strategic culture has a glorious past; lessons from Arjuna’s charioteer Krishna in the Mahabharata can serve as directive principles for a country in pursuit of a strategic doctrine. Krishna’s move such as taking Vidura away from Duryodhana to advise the Pandavas on strategic affairs is a significant lesson. Vidura was such a genius that he went on to set the rules and regulations of the Mahabharata war. In addition, India has produced several treatises pre-dating Chanakya Neeti, like the Vidura Neeti (dialogue between Vidura and Dhritarashtra), the Yaksha Prashna (dialogue between Yudhistir and Yaksha – a crane) which till date serve as invaluable catalysts in weaving one’s thoughts, words and deeds into strategic culture and thinking.
In his book 33 strategies of War, Robert Greene describes the necessity to arm oneself with strategic thinking. He writes, “Everyone around you is angling for power, all trying to promote their own interests, often at your expense. Your daily battle with them makes you lose sight of the only thing that really matters: victory in the end, the achievement of greater goals, lasting power. The grand strategy is the art of looking beyond the battle and calculating ahead.”
India under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated signs of ‘calculating ahead’. At an all-party meeting called to discuss the situation in Jammu and Kashmir recently, PM Modi made it amply clear that the Government was keen to find lasting solutions under the framework of the Indian constitution. In addition and most importantly, the Prime Minister also conveyed to leaders cutting across party lines that PoK belongs to India and that the time had come to expose Islamabad's atrocities in Balochistan.
And the Prime Minister did not stop there; he took the same message to the ramparts of the Red Fort on the occasion of India’s 70th Independence Day. He said, “I want to greet and express my thanks to some people. In the last few days, people of Balochistan, Gilgit, Pakistan-occupied Kashmir have thanked me, and expressed good wishes for me. The people who are living far away, whom I have never seen, never met - such people have expressed appreciation for Prime Minister of India, for 125 crore countrymen.”
This gesture from the Prime Minister came as a certain follow up to the all-party meet to signal that India will use Balochistan as a pressure point vis-à-vis Pakistan. This particular strategic trait was found missing in the previous regimes which chose to ignore Pakistan especially in the case of Balochistan.
Another case in point is Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Vietnam just before the G20 summit in Hangzhou, China. India’s willingness to partner Vietnam in defence exports and marine preparedness can be discerned as a move to contain the growing Chinese military assertiveness. Therefore just the visit to the country by an Indian PM (a first in 15 years) will certainly be seen as a counterstroke to China’s policy of arming India’s enemy Pakistan.
Thus, if one wants to achieve overarching goals in life by embracing alternatives and uncertainties, then it is not enough if just the Prime Minister or a Chief Minister or an MLA or an MP practise strategic thinking. It becomes vital for every citizen to imbibe this trait every step of the way. To recall the wise words of Robert Greene who advocates what he calls the ‘Grand Strategy’, this can be a timely reminder for everyone to follow.
He writes, “In the Grand Strategy, be prepared to lose battles but win the war. This requires that you focus on your ultimate goal and plot to reach it. In grand strategy you consider the political ramifications and long-term consequences of what you do. Instead of reacting emotionally to people, you take control, and make your actions more dimensional, subtle and effective. Let others get caught up in the twists and turns of the battle, relishing their little victories. Grand strategy will bring you the ultimate reward: the Last Laugh.”
 

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Targeting sovereignty of an insignificant plagued with terrorism and problems is not an big achievement, but doing surgical strikes inside a country with huge geographical and do diplomatic benefits, nuclear armed and ally of two Great Powers USA and PRC over that, this country claimed to be your arch rival with all it's India centric policies, is undoubtedly a nice example of demonstration of India's capabilities to project the power. It simply implies that India is also capable of protecting it's interests and can avenge martyrdom of it's soldiers beyond the borders in worse conditions.
India’s Surgical Strikes Against Pakistan- A Game Changer
Sep 30, 2016
Ramaharitha Pusarla

As the news of surgical strikes by India against Pakistan was abuzz, the hues of response varied from elation, surprise and suspicion. For all those, who undermined the Indian leadership and military capabilities there was a formidable lump in the throat. Details apart, the surgical strikes carried out by the Northern Command were much needed to infuse confidence, sense of pride and respect for valor. The massive casualties inflicted by terrorists during the Uri attacks had not only exposed chinks in India’s armor but greatly dented morale of the armed personnel. Indian public too felt infuriated as Indian government had in no clear terms called for an instantaneous response. Having borne the brunt of brutal terrorist attacks, Indian public felt cheated when the party which vociferously denounced every act of Pakistan in opposition failed to deliver instantaneous justice. Though the DGMO Lt. Gen. Ranabir Singh asserted that “We will avenge the killings of our soldiers, but we will do so on cold-blooded professionally military assessment, and on a timeline our choosing, not one dictated by political imperatives or the prime-time news cycle”people hardly found any respite.

In the meanwhile, Indian leadership critically evaluated plausible options to inflict damage to Pakistan on a long term. India finally harped on a multi-pronged approach to rein upon the brazen terror attacks. A range of diplomatic, political and economic assaults were considered. On diplomatic front, exercising right to reply India lacerated Sharif’s claims at UN word by word by saying that “the Land of Taxila, one of the greatest centers of ancient learning is now host to Ivy League of terrorism. It attracts aspirants and apprentices from all over the World”. India added that Pakistan had a “long standing policy of sponsoring terrorism, the consequences of which have spread well beyond our region.” The first secretary Eenam Gambhir added that Pakistan “channelizes billions of dollars, much of it is diverted from international aid, to training, financing and supporting terrorist groups as militant proxies against its neighbors”. This coincided with the US Senators Ted Poe and Dana Rohrabacher tabling a bill in Congress designating Pakistan as terror state. Simultaneously Indian Americans launched an online White House petition asking for declaring Pakistan as terrorist state gained tremendous response. The petition which promises action on local, state or international problems if the campaign receives 100,000 signatures. Before its official deadline of Oct 21stthe target was reached. Now the White House is forced to respond to it within 60 days. Besides, India openly snubbed Pakistan and decided not to attend the SAARC Summit at Islamabad. Fresh from the humiliating reception extended to Rajnath Singh when he attended the Interior Affairs Ministers Meeting of SAARC, Finance Minister later didn’t participate in SAARC Finance Ministers meet. Continuing the precedent, Prime Minister will abstain from SAARC. With India’s position actively backed by Bangladesh, Bhutan and Afghanistan the process of the regional isolation of Pakistan has officially begun. While experts questioned the relevance owing to SAARC’s miniscule clout internationally, India religiously followed the agenda of diplomatic isolation irrespective of the outcomes.

To turn the heat on, India began reviewing the historical Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) brokered by World Bank in 1960. While India initially contemplated on scrapping IWT, it was perceived to be counterproductive. Instead India is considering three ways to use provisions of treaty to its advantage-firstly, suspension of meeting of Permanent Indus Commission so that grievance redressal mechanism is halted and Pakistan would meet a dead end, secondly restarting the Tulbul Project ( Pakistan calls it Wullar Bridge), India suspended the construction across Jhelum river in 1987 following objections from Pakistan, thirdly an inter-ministerial task force would be set up to monitor the water usage from Western Rivers-Ravi, Beas, Sutlej. India is considering on maximizing the use of waters from rivers governed by Pakistan-Jhelum, Chenab and Indus. While the repercussions may not be spontaneous desired effect will be felt within a span of 5-10 years. Finally, India is now seriously reconsidering the Most Favored Nation (MFN) status accorded by it in 1996 under the GATT where country grants a special favor like lower custom duty. But Pakistan hasn’t reciprocated citing non-tariff barriers and huge trade imbalance. Modi government is now critically reviewing all these aspects on a war-footing basis. Since perceptible outcomes are not immediate, Indian public failed to comprehend and appreciate the endeavors of NDA government.

Over the decades, emboldened by India’s meek response to relentless terror attacks Pakistan heavily relied on its low cost warfare to inflict heavy damage on India. Unchecked, unhindered the terror outfits flourished. The surgical strikes by Indian Army are thus timely, sending strong message to war-mongers and sections of Indian public that decried leadership for its inaction. India refrained from a full-blown conventional war, as India is at the cusp to progressive economic resurgence. In the Global Competitiveness Report for 2016-17 released few days back India climbed 16 places to settle at 39 position among 138 countries, while China is ranked 28. Clearly, a conventional war might undo the recent economic gains, India rightly overcame the catch-22 kind of situation by the timely surgical strikes. Meanwhile, National Sensex crashed after the reports of strikes and suffered its worst fall post-Brexit. Despite the negative impact on trade and economy Indian Chamber of Commerce strongly supported surgical strike. Aside, retribution at this point has become inevitable to drive home the point that India is capable of defending itself and if need arises can retaliate reciprocally.

India’s surgical strikes against Pakistan invariably reminded of Indian Army’s “Operation Hot Pursuit” conducted inside the Myanmar territory to avenge the killing of 20 military personnel by the militants of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (Khaplang) in Chandel District of Manipur. India then warned that “Western disturbances will be equally dealt with. Friendship and tolerance will go hand in hand. This is a beginning. India is Strong. This message should go to everyone” implying that India is not averse to launch such operations on its neighbors that harbor anti-Indian terror groups. However, Pakistan chose to downplay and deliberately hinted that Pakistan is not Myanmar and India shouldn’t think of any such action. These surgical strikes, a first by Indian army across LoC, undoubtedly punctured the bloated ego of Pakistan.

As the details emerge, DGMO announced that these strikes were launched to neutralize the terror pads gearing to push infiltrators across the border and were extremely successful. In the operation that lasted for four hours, Indian paratroopers targeted ventured into 2km of PoK, and destroyed 7 launch pads. 38 terrorists and 2 Pakistan soldiers were killed. Now with Pakistan accusing India of fabrication of truth, Indian attacks might soon evade international attention. Also, since Indian operations are carried out in PoK, a legitimate Indian territory, this operation will be considered as a massive combing operation aimed at extricating militants. Moreover, presence of Pakistan soldiers at the terror dungeons confirms Pakistan’s Army is hand is glove with its illegitimate bed partners-the UN designated terrorists.

But by all means, this retributory action would indeed propel Pakistan to retaliate with more force and India must be prepared for any eventuality. Further, these kind of action can’t force Pakistan to mend its ways. But inflicting significant damage might make enemy wary and threat of punitive retaliation will force enemy to reconsider the veracity of its clandestine activities. For the past seven decades, in various encounters with Pakistan it was proved beyond doubt that Pakistan understand the language of guns. India, by strategically executing the surgical strikes delivered the message in a language Rawalpindi clearly understands. Finally, Modi government deserves a big pat on back for walking the talk and demolishing the rhetoric. But for the exceptional valor and supreme sacrifice of Indian military India and political commitment country would be wallowing the swarm of pusillanimity.
 

roma

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this is one reason as to why my consistent stand has been to
not pursue with too much vigour a chair at the UBSC high table but rather

use our non-membership of permanent 5 to say , sorry we cant commit our resources to your backyard problems ....... the usa and uk , nato would love to have "inexpensive " troops from india at their disposal , as if it was the brit raj all over again

so we should turn our non membership of p5 and say a nice no thanks

instead we gotta got full steamm on the economy and G9 or perhaps G!0 membership ( minus russia but include s korea china and india as full members as soon as WE qualify )

@Defcon 1 @Ghanteshwar @Akshay_Fenix
@Ramdasrathsuryavanshi @vinay535
@Darth Malgus @Rushil51
@rishivashista13 @Ramdasrathsuryavanshi @Imaxxx
@Eastman @Berkut @raheel besharam @Bullet

@Ankit Purohit @raja696 @aditya10r
@Akask kumar @airtel @angeldude13 @aditya10r @Abhijat @ @Ancient Indian @ @anupamsurey @ @aliyah @ @Alien @ @Alien @Aravind Sanjeev @A chauhan @asingh10 @aditya g @asianobserve @Bahamut @BATTLE FIELD @bose @Bornubus @brational @blueblood @Blackwater @Blood+ @bhai-117 @Bangalorean @bengalraider @Bengal_Tiger @biswas_k11 @Bharat Ek Khoj @Brood Father @cobra commando @Chirag @Chris Jude @Chinmoy @Cadian @DingDong @dhananjay1 @ersakthivel @FRYCRY @G10 @Gessler @garg_bharat @guru-dutt @Hari Sud @hit&run @hardip @HeinzGud @indiandefencefan @I_PLAY_BAD @Indian Devil @Indibomber @Jangaruda @Jay Patel @jackprince @Kshatriya87 @kstriya @LETHALFORCE @laughingbuddha @mhk99 @Mikesingh @mayfair
@MetsaMan @Mark Antony @manutdfan @maomao @Navneet Kundu @Neil @Nicky G @OneGrimPilgrim @pmaitra @parijataka @PaliwalWarrior @Pulkit @PrashantAzazel @Rahul Singh @Rowdy @Razor @Rashna @rock127 @R.parida @shade @sasum @smestarz @Sakal Gharelu Ustad @Srinivas_K @sunnyv @sgarg @sabari @Sameet2 @saik @sorcerer @Superdefender @sydsnyper @Sridevi @SREEKAR @Screambowl @Sylex21 @Tactical Frog @TejasMK3 @The enlightened @tejas warrior @tharun @thethinker @tsunami @TODELU @VIP @VaghaDeva @Vishwarupa @Vishal Guts @Yusuf @Yumdoot @Zebra
 

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this is one reason as to why my consistent stand has been to
not pursue with too much vigour a chair at the UBSC high table but rather

use our non-membership of permanent 5 to say , sorry we cant commit our resources to your backyard problems ....... the usa and uk , nato would love to have "inexpensive " troops from india at their disposal , as if it was the brit raj all over again

so we should turn our non membership of p5 and say a nice no thanks

instead we gotta got full steamm on the economy and G9 or perhaps G!0 membership ( minus russia but include s korea china and india as full members as soon as WE qualify )

@Defcon 1 @Ghanteshwar @Akshay_Fenix
@Ramdasrathsuryavanshi @vinay535
@Darth Malgus @Rushil51
@rishivashista13 @Ramdasrathsuryavanshi @Imaxxx
@Eastman @Berkut @raheel besharam @Bullet

@Ankit Purohit @raja696 @aditya10r
@Akask kumar @airtel @angeldude13 @aditya10r @Abhijat @ @Ancient Indian @ @anupamsurey @ @aliyah @ @Alien @ @Alien @Aravind Sanjeev @A chauhan @asingh10 @aditya g @asianobserve @Bahamut @BATTLE FIELD @bose @Bornubus @brational @blueblood @Blackwater @Blood+ @bhai-117 @Bangalorean @bengalraider @Bengal_Tiger @biswas_k11 @Bharat Ek Khoj @Brood Father @cobra commando @Chirag @Chris Jude @Chinmoy @Cadian @DingDong @dhananjay1 @ersakthivel @FRYCRY @G10 @Gessler @garg_bharat @guru-dutt @Hari Sud @hit&run @hardip @HeinzGud @indiandefencefan @I_PLAY_BAD @Indian Devil @Indibomber @Jangaruda @Jay Patel @jackprince @Kshatriya87 @kstriya @LETHALFORCE @laughingbuddha @mhk99 @Mikesingh @mayfair
@MetsaMan @Mark Antony @manutdfan @maomao @Navneet Kundu @Neil @Nicky G @OneGrimPilgrim @pmaitra @parijataka @PaliwalWarrior @Pulkit @PrashantAzazel @Rahul Singh @Rowdy @Razor @Rashna @rock127 @R.parida @shade @sasum @smestarz @Sakal Gharelu Ustad @Srinivas_K @sunnyv @sgarg @sabari @Sameet2 @saik @sorcerer @Superdefender @sydsnyper @Sridevi @SREEKAR @Screambowl @Sylex21 @Tactical Frog @TejasMK3 @The enlightened @tejas warrior @tharun @thethinker @tsunami @TODELU @VIP @VaghaDeva @Vishwarupa @Vishal Guts @Yusuf @Yumdoot @Zebra
Being at UNSC with a veto gives us quite a leverage. In realpolitik it is used as a favour to by P5 for other nations.
Even when we face adverse revolutions we have to do lot of lobbying to block these.

Regarding troops we are already largest contributor in peace keeping.

Being a permanent member would increase our clout and we can still tactfully avoid getting drawn into conflicts .
China didn't jumped in Syria while supporting Russia.

We will naturally be in any future G10
Being in UNSC compliments that
 

hit&run

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Looking at extrinsic impediments and challenges is appraisal of half the picture.

Our geo-political assertiveness that will translate into so called strategic strength or value is complimented by our internal strength.

Before we can spread outwards and create a bigger sphere of influence we must raise the bar for all HDI markers at home.

I am not saying there should be absolute procrastination; that we neglect power projection for sake of paying attention internally. This will be like agreeing with leftists and our detractors's fallacies when these morons mock our space program citing poverty.

It must run parallel to our policies and action of uplifting masses out of poverty, removing bottlenecks, reform and industrialization.

Before redeeming benefits our our strategic inertia that involves out smarting our adversaries who now know how to unsettle us internally, we must pay more attention on internal factors including internal security.
 

Indx TechStyle

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Japan wants India to speak on South China Sea dispute: How prudent is it for New Delhi?

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi visited India before the G-20 summit and said that it was upto India to decide what position it wished to take vis-à-vis the issue of the South China Sea.
Wang's visit could be seen as a subtle warning to India before the crucial G-20 summit. The need to warn India may have risen considering the gradually toughening stand of the country on the South China Sea ruling and Beijing's suspicious activities in the region, which have had an impact on New Delhi's key partners.
As Beijing defies norms and moves ships in the disputed region, Japan is looking at India as an indispensable partner in preventing China from altering the maritime status quo in South China Sea. A Times of India report quotes deputy director of Japan's foreign ministry's regional policy division which handles South China Sea Yuki Tamura as saying, "We are encouraging India to speak up on issues related to South China Sea because maritime security is important.”
According to Japan Times, China believes that the matter should be resolved only by the parties concerned and outsiders have no role.
Japan has repeatedly claimed that Chinese vessels have been moving into territorial waters around the disputed islands in the East China Sea.
In August this year, Japan noticed more than 200 Chinese fishing boats operating in the contiguous zone around Senkaku islands, according to the report in The Times of India. Tokyo had protested to Beijing after coast guard ships sailed into territorial waters and even summoned the Chinese ambassador. "The situation surrounding the Japan-China relationship is markedly deteriorating," Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida told Beijing's envoy Cheng Yonghua.
Tokyo's concerns come amid the growing aggression in the South China Sea following The Hague Tribunal's ruling. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said, "Japan is seriously concerned about Beijing's increasingly muscular claims in the South China Sea.” The possibility of the dispute spilling over from South China Sea to East China Sea makes Tokyo anxious and forces it to muster support from other regional powers to stop China.
China had attempted to enforce an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) in 2013 in the East China Sea, which included the Senkaku islands. ADIZ is an extension of a country's normal airspace, providing the country an early warning system to detect and respond appropriately to foreign, and possibly hostile, aircraft, according to The Trumpet.
Tokyo's insistence on India making a strong statement on the South China Sea dispute is possibly an evidence of India's growing reputation as a regional power. It shows that India's statement and stand on the issue will send a strong message to Beijing.
India's stance on the dispute until now has somewhat been very vague. It has not made any concrete statement on the issue. From keeping mum on the dispute to issuing a joint statement with Japan asking all parties to avoid the use of force, India is gradually moving towards making stronger statements.
In January 2015, India's joint statement with the United States affirmed the "importance of safeguarding maritime security and ensuring freedom of navigation and over flight throughout the region, especially in the South China Sea."
In the joint statement issued in July by Indian defence minister Manohar Parrikar and his Japanese counterpart, Gen Nakatani, the ministers expressed concern over recent developments in the South China Sea. They also called for all parties to ensure "freedom and safety of navigation and over-flight as well as unimpeded lawful commerce in international waters,” reported The Diplomat.
Now, the risk for India to come out and say something in this regard is high. A statement can tilt the stakes in any direction.
If India keeps following the trail of its actions, it will most likely disappoint the United States and Japan. They might not be too pleased with New Delhi for not speaking up. However, such a refusal is unlikely to affect the bilateral relations.
But if it does decide to speak up, it might endanger its own security in its own North east and provoke Beijing to take a harder stance against it. India's Nuclear Suppliers Group membership was blocked primarily by China and its bid to put sanctions on Hafiz Saaed was also blocked by Beijing.
An irate China might also exploit its "all-weather friendship” with Pakistan to attack India. Subsequently, Pakistan may have carte blanche to aggravate the ceasefire violations along the Line of Control (LoC) and launch attacks on Indian soil.
Speaking out on the South China Sea India will likely exacerbate the security situation on its border by taking on China on this issue.
Will India take that risk? Only time will tell.
 

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Yes it is indeed a risk..

This will test the diplomacy maneuvers of Modi and team.My view is India must not take any decision until NSG and azhar decision from China.Yes and to keep plan B ready.
Errr!!!
china has openly supported JeM chief..
If India didnt take a stance India will lose credibility with Japan and other alliances.
because all that muscle flexing by India will seem hollow.
If we want other world nations to take us seriously we need to show the LEAD role in siding and settling disputes.. because other world nations are watching and taking notes.

If we dont take a credible stance on SCS china wil think that their pressure tactic against INdia using JeM is working and that in a way is telling that china's pakistan ploy is working.
So thats bad for India..
This will also make pakistan very relevant for china.

India should call the chinese bluff and stay with the INTERNATIONAL NORMS on SCS which other nations are calling for.


In future china would use the same tactic coupled with terrorism to get things done by India.


On NSG..china has maintained that 5 other nations are the one blocking India's bid..and its not china.
So we have to make sure that the 5 other nations comply with us and that makes china alone blocking us...which is something china wont be able to handle for the terrorists state of pakistan.
Close all the escape reasons china gives and china will comply..
This attitude of china shows that china hides behind reasons and bluffs

Pound pakistan on every attempt against India and china will themselves put Azhar on the list to save face. or get Azhar by whatever means with covert intel. and show a big middle finger to china

 
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The Pursuit of National Goals Needs Strategic Communication, Not Chaos and Noise
In the aftermath of Uri and the surgical strikes, atavistic calls for revenge blurred the focus on terrorism as the enemy of peace and development, as well as efforts to seek a settlement of outstanding issues with Pakistan through dialogue.

File photo of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Credit: PTI
“Those with the most extensive and strongest communication bridges will command power in the global communication era’’ – R.S. Zaharna
Twenty-first century statecraft, they say, is about “smart power”, the effective leveraging of both hard and soft power. When it comes to India’s handling of the surgical strikes across the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir, it would be fair to say that the government has exercised its power smartly. Through the strikes, the government managed to foil an impending attack by militants based in Pakistan-occupied territory near the LoC. This was a calibrated and surgically precise operation that was not intended to escalate bilateral tensions. The dissemination of information on the strikes, which was prompt and measured, demonstrated the well-coordinated efforts of the diplomatic and defence establishments. Also worth noting is the palpable empathy with which the transnational public sphere has responded to India’s case against terrorism exported from Pakistan.
Leaving aside India’s soft power advantages and its hard power – both military and economic – which is poised to increase exponentially if it maintains its present trajectory, let us examine the concept of strategic communication within India’s policy structure. Strategic communication embodies the confluence of policy goals, effective persuasion and power – political, military and economic. It embodies advanced planning and involves what is termed the ‘purposeful use of communication’ to fulfil the mission of the concerned organisation. In the case of a country’s government, this mode of communication helps keep the national focus on the goals of national advancement, maintaining law and order, vigilant defence of borders and homeland security, sustainable development, faster economic growth and amity between diverse ethnic and religious groups in a globally connected world. Its message is simple, consistent and also has a compelling storyline. This message is not a one-time dissemination done in the form of statements or press releases; instead, it has to be an interactive one – executed through communicating in real time and by responding to various players and audiences at home and abroad. As experts have noted, strategic communication is about building extensive interactive networks on various communication platforms and not just being the one that commands the most amount of information on a given situation.
Given the long-drawn, bitter and indecisively confrontational relationship shared between India and Pakistan, it is important that we triangulate the right measurements between diplomacy, defence and public outreach. Diplomacy, the first of these elements must serve the purpose of the second – defence – as well as the larger national mission of peaceful development. It must be imbued with passion and a sense of political purpose. It should not detract from the basic, long-term goals of the nation or seek short-term gratification. These long-term goals are securing the national interest in consonance with strategic goals in security and defence, ensuring transnational support for India’s case on various global issues, raising the country’s profile in the Indo-Pacific world, building a South Asian commons, even without Pakistan if need be, catalysing the flow of foreign investment and technologies for the growth of key industries, but overall, using tools of powerful and convincing persuasion to build confidence in the idea and the practice of Indian nationhood. Public diplomacy must target an audience wider and larger than the immediate national echo chamber. In the case of India-Pakistan relations, our public diplomacy must target audiences in the region, particularly in Pakistan and beyond.
Combating terrorism, a “message with no words”
In a May 1997 interview with CNN, Osama bin Laden described terrorism as a “message with no words”. Terrorism’s message has a consistency and a purpose that negates dialogue, discussion or debate on solving problems peacefully and through negotiation. Its target is not only to kill and terrorise but also to disrupt communication networks and generate disorientation. Governments engaged in a war against terror must anticipate this. Countering terror and its wordless message must involve, in addition to targeted kinetic action, well-modulated plans of negating terrorism’s ideology by working through various channels. These channels include the use of the world wide web, social media platforms, press and television channels, spokespersons – governmental and non-governmental – to refute terrorist propaganda, instil confidence in the public about government actions against terrorism and expose the illegitimacy of those who support and sponsor terrorist groups.
The media cannot arbitrarily outsource this process to itself. The jingoistic responses to the Uri attack and surgical strikes from certain sections of the media showed little evidence of an underlying core of strategic communication that involved the government in the dissemination of these messages. Atavistic calls for revenge and an eye-for-an-eye rhetoric – sounding chaotic and incoherent – blurred the focus on terrorism as the enemy of peace and development, as well as efforts to seek a settlement of outstanding issues with Pakistan through dialogue. The feelings of an outraged national audience may have been assuaged, but what about the rest of the region? Diplomacy’s purpose of influencing opinions beyond Indian shores was overtaken by hysterical displays of patriotic nationalism aimed at Indian viewers, listeners and other participants on various media platforms. Can this instil global confidence in India’s stated desire to be a real power on the global stage?
Civilians – the people in between
One important point that seemed to have been largely ignored was the fact that our quarrel is not with the Pakistani people – themselves victims of terrorism – but with the Pakistani state and its creation and support of anti-India terror groups. Of course, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in his Kozhikode speech of September 24, did exhort the Pakistani people to fight poverty, illiteracy and infant mortality, saying, “let both countries fight to eradicate poverty and lets see who wins,” instead of listening to their leaders “reading out scripts written by terrorists on Kashmir.” Yet, by banishing Pakistani actors from Bollywood – because some sections of opinion in the country demanded it – we have achieved little but the further alienation of India in the minds of the common people and civil society in Pakistan. The latter are what Robert Gates once called – albeit in a different context – the people in between, neither friends nor complete adversaries, a group among which there are those who favour peaceful relations with India, although this number is yet nowhere near a critical mass. In any crisis situation short of war, keeping avenues of communication and interaction with public sentiment in the adversary’s society open cannot do harm. Here again, it would seem that the decision-making apparatus in the government allowed the guillotines to fall without timely intervention. Our struggle as a nation is not only to end that scourge without words – terrorism – but also to build support for peace and negotiate settlements to problems in Pakistan, as well as the rest of South Asia. If India were to engage in more pre-emptive strikes, in the name of self-defence, to take out terror camps on the Pakistani side of the LoC, there is little the rest of the world could say or do to condemn such actions. The world would understand. But retribution practised in the cultural sphere or involving people-to-people interaction is rarely endorsed by anyone beyond a sympathetic national audience.
The issue here is that modern technology caters to different communities of interest – as we see on social media platforms today. As far as the government is concerned, when it comes to communication, everything planned and executed should be done with the awareness that a global audience is networked into the domestic and that the world is watching and listening. The government has to function in a multi-tasking mode, it not only has to deal with the demands for ‘action’ from the national audience, but also handle the skepticism about our policies abroad (the world is tired of the 70-year-old feud between India and Pakistan but also worried about the threat of nuclear confrontation) and the need to articulate India’s policy goals clearly and cogently.
A new approach to communication
In today’s world of pervasive media, communication cannot be based on just firing ideas at people with a one size fits all perspective. We must understand that people are being influenced by the “ecology” of ideas thrown at them from various sources. For the government narrative to predominate, it cannot just be a reactive one – one that reacts to a story disseminated in the media, or a call from the public. The government’s message has to set the tone and formulate content, it has to have the capacity to influence opinion in a lasting and credible manner. In other words, it has to be the story that leads. And the story cannot be set in stone: it has to be constantly added to, amended and amplified to accommodate the government’s responses to different sections of opinion. It has to address questions of both war and peace. Traditional methods and content (for example, just collating evidence of terror attacks and Pakistan’s perfidy will not be enough. There must also be references to the persistent efforts made by India for peace with Pakistan; how Pakistan has egged on separatism in Kashmir and prevented the maturing of efforts by the Indian government to promote reconciliation and normalcy of life in the state and address the grievances of the population there). Each of these aspects needs to be highlighted and nuanced selectively depending on the audience addressed.
The Indian government needs a cadre of specialists in strategic communication, in policy articulation and projection who also cater to audiences well beyond the domestic audience, non-resident Indians and persons of Indian origin. As a first step perhaps the government may consider setting up an office of strategic communication and coordination under the National Security Council, which coordinates inputs from the ministries of defence, external affairs, home as well as information and broadcasting and provides the direction and planning for the government’s information and communication outreach across various media platforms. Much greater global power and responsibility await India. The government must prime itself to project the country with more creativity, coherence, calculation, confidence and consistency of focus on long-term national goals than in decades past.
 

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India may confront many internal & external challenges: President Pranab Mukherjee
The President said that emergence of Asia as the new 'centre of economic power' has gradually shifted the centre of gravity of the world financial power from the West to the East.
BY: PTI | NEW DELHI |Published On:November 1, 2016 9:04 PM

President Pranab Mukherjee on Tuesday cautioned that India is likely to confront many challenges both from within and outside the country in its march towards its “justifiable position” in the comity of nations. In his address to the members of 56th Course and Faculty of National Defence College, the President said that emergence of Asia as the new ‘centre of economic power’ has gradually shifted the centre of gravity of the world financial power from the West to the East. “Global war on terror and threat to the nation states from terrorists are likely to be another aspect which will take time and energy of the world community.
“India is likely to confront many challenges both from within and outside the country in its march towards its justifiable position in the comity of nations,” he said. Speaking about the multi-party democratic system like India, he said various departments of the state must understand the strengths and limitations of those organs. “All wings of the State – the political leadership, the civil leadership and the armed forces need to strategise in a manner so as to enhance our defence capabilities and project our strengths effectively,” he said.
He said the role of the armed forces has also expanded far beyond traditional military matters with revolutions in military affairs and globalisation. “It is clear that future conflicts in the complex defence and security environment will require a more integrated multi-state and multi-agency approach,” he said.
In his address, the president spoke about the numerous challenges being posed in the context of today’s global environment because of changing dynamics. “The astonishing pace at which events have unfolded in the recent past could not have been foreseen even a decade earlier. Each country is guided in its actions by its national interests and objectives.
“The relationships are constantly changing and unless a country understands and adjusts itself to the changes that are taking place around the world, its own security could be seriously endangered,” he said. Mukherjee spoke about intense competition among nations to take control of natural resources which are are always at a premium leading to changes in concept of security of a nation.
“This adds to the challenges created by changing power equations. The concept of security has also undergone a major change. Security is no more confined to preservation of territorial integrity alone. “It also encompasses economic, energy, food, health, environmental and all other dimensions of national well being. It is thus a comprehensive concept including all elements of national power. Intensive research and quality analysis in all fields and disciplines is thus a prerequisite which calls for a holistic approach to studies across a vast spectrum of disciplines.”
The President said there must be a conscious effort to strengthen the linkages between different organs and not divide them into watertight compartments. “Adopting such an integrated approach is the only option to seek rich dividends and meet the emerging challenges,” he said, adding the success of any nation depends on how effectively it harnesses all the available resources at its disposal, foremost among these being the human resource.
Complimenting the NDC for training officers in various fields, he said multidisciplinary approach to problems of national security was recognised by ancient philosopher and political thinkers like Chanakya, the author of ‘Arthashastra’. The President recalled that even Jawaharlal Nehru, the architect of modern India, while inaugurating the National Defence College in 1960, had articulated that ‘defence is not an isolated subject. It is intimately connected with the economic, industrial and many other aspects in the country and is all encompassing’.
 

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