Would India give Russia a naval base in the Indian Ocean?

[SHASH2K2]

Good point, their economy is based on oil and it was based on the rise of oil as well. The actual industrial and services sectors of the Russian economy were stagnant during their oil boom and now is in steep decline. Most of their oil wells will be drained in the next 5-10 years. Where is the rise of Russia?

I think we are deviating from the main topic but let me answer you. their industrial output is on decline and they badly need some rapid industrialization but their GDP is still very good.
and regarding oil reserve please check it out.
http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/russia/100228-0.html
very soon USA is getting Russia into WTO as well.

 

[Armand2REP]

I think we are deviating from the main topic but let me answer you. their industrial output is on decline and they badly need some rapid industrialization but their GDP is still very good.
and regarding oil reserve please check it out.
http://www.bradynet.com/bbs/russia/100228-0.html
very soon USA is getting Russia into WTO as well.

Their economic outlook has something to do with whether they can afford bases in India. Russian oil wells are drying up and it is a costly endeavour to reach the ones they have not tapped. So where is Russia's rise?

http://www.newsru.com/finance/30mar2008/oil.html

 

[Neil]

Good point, their economy is based on oil and it was based on the rise of oil as well. The actual industrial and services sectors of the Russian economy were stagnant during their oil boom and now is in steep decline. Most of their oil wells will be drained in the next 5-10 years. Where is the rise of Russia?

russia will have more oil wells in coming decades than any other country due to effects of global warming......so they can rise.....
but the problem for russia is that countries are increasing turning away from oil and russia both of which are undependable....

 

[Armand2REP]

russia will have more oil wells in coming decades than any other country due to effects of global warming......so they can rise.....
but the problem for russia is that countries are increasing turning away from oil and russia both of which are undependable....

The cost of drilling Arctic wells and the deep Siberian wells is not cost effective enough for them to make a profit selling it. Once they start drilling that we will have already reached peak production and oil will become a distant memory. So where is Russia's rise?

 

[samarsingh]

As of now, Russia does not have any strategic interest in the Indian Ocean, primary interest is in central asia and they have the CSTO...
having said that our base in tajikistan would not have materialised without tacit approval from Moscow, so in future should Russia need a base in Indian Ocean, we should help...could have a joint base in a neutral country for instance ,maldives
there is this danger of alienating Russia with our growing defence ties to US/Israel/Europe...and such a move will help.
as far as US is concerned , I remember Kissinger's interview with Karan Thapar where he was talking about realist foreign policy based on common interests. so the US will understand t..we cant ditch out oldest ally.(soviet Union/Russia)...
but I dont think we will join CSTO or Sanghai Cooperation....we dont want to be seen too close to China...there has been a remarkable change in our foreign policy since the fall of Soviet Union..and India probably does not want to be too close for comfort with any group....

 

[LETHALFORCE]

http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=3799548

Russian Navy to Hold War Games in Indian Ocean
MOSCOW - The Russian navy will hold war games in the Indian Ocean in a bid to boost its global presence, a navy spokesman said Nov. 1, announcing Moscow's latest move to flex its military muscle.

"Ships from the Pacific Ocean Fleet and forces from the Northern Fleet will meet and carry out joint military exercises in the Indian Ocean basin," navy spokesman Igor Dygalo said in a statement.

Dygalo did not specify when the exercises would take place, but he said warships from Russia's Vladivostok-based Pacific Ocean Fleet would leave "shortly" for the Arabian Sea, docking in various ports on the way.

He called the Indian Ocean maneuvers part of an effort to raise the Russian navy's worldwide profile before the end of the year.

"In the remaining months of 2008, Russian Navy Central Command will increase the presence of Russian Navy forces in the world ocean in the interests of strengthening stability and security in its various regions," he said.

This month, a flotilla of Russian warships from the Northern Fleet, based in the Arctic port of Severomorsk, are to hold exercises with the Venezuelan navy in the Caribbean Sea.

The flotilla, led by the massive nuclear-powered missile cruiser Peter the Great, stopped in Libya last month as part of a global show of Russian might not seen since the Cold War.

 

[sandeepdg]

I think its high time we need to project the Indian Ocean as our backyard, and hence its in our interests to hold a strategic fort in different zones of IOR. Though the Americans have a substantial presence in Diego Garcia, I think they won't complain of us having bases in various places in IOR, as it hardly hurts any of their interests, on the contrary we now have convergent interests in IOR. Our interests are far greater than any other nation in IOR as our exclusive economic zone is huge stretching from the Malacca straits to the east coast of Africa, and we should make the world see it that way. About giving a base to Russia, I would say that we can collaborate with the Russians in establish a base, that way it will serve our common interests, because logistically its will huge problem for the Russian navy to operate so far from its homeland and maintain any permanent presence in this region.

 

[sandeepdg]

By the way, folks, this is an interesting read from the Pentagon's South Asia Defense and Strategic Yearbook:

http://ceps.anu.edu.au/publications/pdfs/gordon_strategic_interests_yearbook.pdf

 

[civfanatic]

The US-UK agreement to use Diego Garcia as a naval base will expire in 2036.

By that time the Indian Navy needs to develop into a full-fledged blue water navy, and excercise full authority over the IOR.

Every great power needs a sphere of influence. And since India is hemmed in by the Himalayan mountains, we have no other choice but to stake our claim in the seas.

 

[sandeepdg]

Yeah mate, hopefully by that time we will have many Arihant class and Akula class subs in our armoury and hence will be able to kick anyone's a** who messes with us in our sphere of influence !

 

[SHASH2K2]

Yeah mate, hopefully by that time we will have many Arihant class and Akula class subs in our armoury and hence will be able to kick anyone's a** who messes with us in our sphere of influence !

By 2036 these subs will be outdated . We will have something bigger and better and definitely kick A** .

 

[sandeepdg]

By 2036 these subs will be outdated . We will have something bigger and better and definitely kick A** .

Comeon, we don't even have a single sub in our armoury of the Arihant class, even when we do (2012 probably), we definitely won't have any SLBMs for it !! That might take another 5-6 years to materialise, say around 2017-18, by that time we might have at the most 2 Arihant class subs plus the Akula we are supposed to lease from Russia. So you really think that these subs will become outdated in the IN in a span of 18-20 years, considering that is the approximate useful lifespan of these subs ? No man, we don't upgrade that fast as regards our history tells us, only the USN does ! Though, I am hopeful we might get the Borei class from the Russians by then !

 

[sandeepdg]

Another interesting read, this time from a research scholar from ISS, Islamabad. The Pakistanis have already started having nightmares, seeing the apparent growth of the IN and are cooking up scenarios asking other South Asian nations in IOR to partner among themselves and protect themselves from the Indians !!

http://www.issi.org.pk/ss_Detail.php?dataId=183

 

[SHASH2K2]

Comeon, we don't even have a single sub in our armoury of the Arihant class, even when we do (2012 probably), we definitely won't have any SLBMs for it !! That might take another 5-6 years to materialise, say around 2017-18, by that time we might have at the most 2 Arihant class subs plus the Akula we are supposed to lease from Russia. So you really think that these subs will become outdated in the IN in a span of 18-20 years, considering that is the approximate useful lifespan of these subs ? No man, we don't upgrade that fast as regards our history tells us, only the USN does ! Though, I am hopeful we might get the Borei class from the Russians by then !

These subs will not be outdated but submarines of other countries will be more modern and will be more powerful and we would be getting new subs to match them . Arihant is just a prototype/ initial desoign of our Nuclear subs. we need to improve them a lot . We need to make them more stealthy and lethal . As of now Arihant class subs are not the quietest in world.

 

[sandeepdg]

These subs will not be outdated but submarines of other countries will be more modern and will be more powerful and we would be getting new subs to match them . Arihant is just a prototype/ initial desoign of our Nuclear subs. we need to improve them a lot . We need to make them more stealthy and lethal . As of now Arihant class subs are not the quietest in world.

Well, mate, even as of now the subs of most countries are far more modern than us ! You should very well know that half of the weaponry in our armed forces are obsolete, and still they make do with them, courtesy our government's pathetic strategic foresight ! Even the Pakistani Agostas are better than our subs, that's why we went in for the Scorpenes and the Kilo sub upgradation program. Arihant may not be quietest since it is still a design that needs perfection, but the Akula we are getting is the most lethal sub in the world and also the quietest one, it would be a pity if we don't utilize it for what its worth !!

 

[sachinkur]

is Russia want a navel base here? i think no bcz Russia is not USSR

 

[Rahul92]

it may give on the Chinese aggressive basis mostly to counter advance missiles

 

[sandeepdg]

it may give on the Chinese aggressive basis mostly to counter advance missiles

What's that supposed to mean ?? Please elaborate.

 

[pmaitra]

As you can see, the only hurdle is Pakistan. Once we've reached Kazakhstan, we're home-free to Russia.

Actually, we do share a border with Afghanistan but then we will have to get territorial control of POK (Gilgit-Baltistan region). Once we do that, we can get access to Tajikistan by crossing the Wakhan Corridor, a narrow strip of land in Afghanistan that seperated the then British Indian Empire and Russian Empire in the days of the Great Game. However, we will still need to lay tracks to connect to Chkalovsk through Kohistani Badakhshan province of Tajikistan, whence we can have connectivity to Central Asia and Russia.

N.B.: One point to note here is that it is difficult to use existing tracks in Tajikistan for connecting India and Russia because there is no existing railway connecting Southern Tajikistan with it's northern neighbours like Uzbekistan, where the railway network is better connected to the rest of the CIS.

 

[LETHALFORCE]

http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Russia_to_expand_foreign_naval_bases_Medvedev_999.html

Russia to expand foreign naval bases: Medvedev

President Dmitry Medvedev said Thursday that Russia intended to expand the number of its foreign naval bases as it tries to catch up with the military capabilities of the West.

Medvedev conceded at a meeting
with Russia's top brass that the country was losing some of its Soviet-era allies and now more than ever need to negotiate a series of new foreign base agreements with new partner states.

"Unfortunately, the reality is that a number of our previous opportunities have disappeared," Medvedev said in televised remarks.

Medvedev said that he now had "certain ideas" about how these could be replaced.

"But for obvious reasons, I will not say them out loud," he added.

Russia has in the past decade lost several of its most important Soviet-era bases, including in Cuba and Vietnam.

These and other losses have left Russia unable to support major naval exercises, leaving the once-mighty force largely confined to the European seas and Russia's Pacific coast.

Medvedev admitted that this has left Russia at tremendous disadvantage to Western powers, which have supported and built new bases since the Soviet Union's collapse.

"In this sense, our current partners have much better conditions because they have put up bases the world over. And they enter them and refuel."

Russia, meanwhile, has to support all its major sea operations with a fleet of refuelling ships, "which is very expensive and completely inefficient," Medvedev said.

"All in all, this is a subject demanding careful government involvement," Medvedev said.