Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi came to Washington this week armed with a long list of topics to discuss. Or to be more accurate, he arrived with a hodgepodge wishlist of unrealistic propositions. However, the most unlikely proposal -- that Pakistan be given a civilian nuclear deal similar to the one India was granted in 2008 -- could be the one that finally wins those elusive "hearts and minds."
It has become a mantra of the war on terror that poverty, desperation, and hopelessness breed militancy. A population that is contented, it is said, will never strap on suicide vests.(its something like younis khan said last year when most of the cricket team refused to visit pak,"by refusing to travel pakistan world teams are taking bat away from us.do they want pakistani players too leave cricket bat and pick-up guns to become terrorists".it is well known fact that most of the dreaded terrorists are well off.) Solving Pakistan's power crisis, a source of great exasperation for many Pakistanis that is getting progressively worse with each passing year, should be a priority in Washington. And providing nuclear energy may be the cheapest, most efficient way to deal with this crisis.
A poll conducted by Gallup in July 2009 found that 53 percent of the Pakistani population goes without electricity for more than eight hours a day. Since then the electricity shortfall in the country has increased by 42 percent from 3,500 megawatts to 5,000 megawatts. The Pakistani government has tried a variety of piecemeal measures -- building a power plant here, placing pleading ads in the newspapers begging consumers to cut their consumption there -- but technical and financial constraints do not allow wholesale reform. There is also a lack of will on the part of political governments to invest in long-term solutions since the benefits of such investment would not be felt for many years to come. This is where the United States and its civilian nuclear deal could rush in and save the day.
The benefits to the United States of such a deal should be obvious. Millions of electricity-starved Pakistanis might be thankful to the United States for providing aid that has a tangible impact on their lives. The civilian and military aid currently provided by the United States has not touched the life of the average Pakistani. This will also allow the Obama administration to keep a closer watch on Pakistan's nuclear activities. By attaching the condition that all nuclear materials and technology provided under the agreement be monitored by the Americans, the U.S. government will gain greater knowledge of Pakistan's nuclear know-how. The Pakistani government, though, would have to spin such conditions to patriotic Pakistanis by boasting that Pakistan has been offered the same nuclear deal as the one given to India. The desire for parity with India should override questions of sovereignty, especially if the deal comes with a guarantee that Pakistan's existing nuclear capabilities will remain untouched and unmonitored. In the long run the United States could help avert the next regional war, which may well be over the water that Pakistan so desperately relies on for electricity generation -- water that Pakistan is now accusing India of withholding.
The most outlandish objection to a Pakistani nuclear deal is that the Taliban will take over Pakistan and with it the nuclear material provided by the United States. Given that the Taliban only control parts of the tribal areas in the country's rugged northwest -- land that has never been fully under the authority of the central government in Pakistan's history -- and that even the mainstream religious parties have never won more than 10 percent of the vote in general elections, this is an eventuality this is unlikely to come to pass. Then, there is the fear that Pakistani soldiers and officers with extremist sympathies could hand over a 'dirty' bomb to the Taliban, which somehow ignores the fact that the Pakistani army already has plenty of nukes to distribute to the Taliban if they so desired.
Pakistan might not "deserve" nuclear technology given its illegal past proliferation. By that standard, Pakistan also didn't ‘deserve' vast amounts of U.S. military aid to fight the Taliban considering its previous support for the regime. But international politics doesn't work on the principle of treating countries like schoolchildren. Give Pakistan the civilian nuclear deal and leave the demerit-badges-for-past-performance idea for the Boy Scouts.
Nadir Hassan is a journalist working for Newsline magazine in Pakistan.
Pakistan's hopes for civil nuclear cooperation have been a non-starter in Washington, but experts say the United States can use it as a dangling carrot as it seeks influence in Islamabad.
The two nations Thursday wrapped up a first-of-a-kind "strategic dialogue," which the United States hopes will show Pakistan's widely anti-American public that it cares about the country beyond seeking help against Islamic extremists.
US officials stayed carefully on message, pledging respect for Pakistan and never explicitly saying no to its requests -- a refusal that would have been sure to steal the headlines.
Pakistan is seeking a civilian nuclear deal along the lines of a landmark agreement that the United States struck with India in 2008. The South Asian rivals stunned the world in 1998 by carrying out nuclear tests.
Asked about the Pakistani request, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the United States would listen to "whatever issues the delegation raises" and highlighted a 125-million-dollar US package to boost Pakistan's energy sector.
A nuclear deal could help ease the developing country's chronic energy shortages. But it would also amount to US recognition of Pakistan as the Islamic world's only nuclear power, a point of pride for many Pakistanis.
"At the moment this looks like a non-starter, but it shouldn't be," said Marvin Weinbaum, a scholar at the Middle East Institute and former State Department official.
"There is no reason why we couldn't use this as a bargaining tool to get more cooperation, to say, 'This may not be something we can deliver now, but we would like to work something out with you,'" he said.
"It could have a very positive impact both with the Pakistani elite and public."
But the United States has longstanding concerns about proliferation from Pakistan -- and policymakers are said to have quietly drafted a crisis plan in case the nuclear arsenal risk falling out of government control.
The father of Pakistan's bomb, Abdul Qadeer Khan, has admitted leaking nuclear secrets to Iran, Libya and North Korea, although he later retracted his remarks.
The level of separation between Pakistan's military and civilian nuclear programs also remains a matter of dispute. Pakistan returned to civilian rule in 2008 and President Asif Ali Zardari a year later handed over control of the nuclear program to Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani.
"I think it's extremely premature to be talking about any civil nuclear cooperation between the US and Pakistan at this stage," said Lisa Curtis, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation think-tank.
"It would be more appropriate and important to be talking about conventional military cooperation, economic support and breaking down trade barriers," said Curtis, who served in the State Department in former president George W. Bush's administration.
Bush championed the nuclear deal with India, the signature part of his drive to build an alliance between the world's two largest democracies.
The agreement faced criticism from some members of President Barack Obama's Democratic Party, who argued that it sent the wrong message as India, like Pakistan and Israel, refuses to sign the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.
"One of the reasons the US was able to move forward in Congress was because of India's solid record against proliferation and Pakistan doesn't have that," Curtis said.
Some critics who believe the Bush agreement was too easy on India said that Pakistan's requests confirmed their fears.
"I think the fact that we gave India such a sweetheart deal set a very dangerous precedent and it's no surprise that Pakistan wants a similar deal," said Leonor Tomero of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.
She also said that Pakistan's request was "odd" coming so close to Obama's April 12-13 nuclear security summit in Washington and the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference a month later.
WASHINGTON: The two-day strategic dialogue between the United States and Pakistan has opened up new possibilities for further talks on a range of issues — from a nuclear deal to Islamabad’s role in the Afghan reconciliation process.
But there was silence on Pakistan’s “most heavily advertised” proposal: a civil nuclear agreement similar to the one the Bush administration signed with India. The silence also underlined the need for further talks on this issue.
During the talks that ended on Thursday, the two sides also discussed a possible role for Pakistan in the Afghan reconciliation process. US officials were particularly interested in knowing Gen Kayani’s views on this issue as they believed that he was “critical to determining the role Pakistan will play”.
Three tangible results include: $125 million for energy development, $51 million for upgrading three thermal plants and $40 million for the construction of priority roads in the NWFP.
All of these come from last year’s $7.5 billion aid to Pakistan legislation known as the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill and some were already announced during US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s visit to Pakistan in October.
Pakistani diplomatic sources confirmed to Dawn a US media report that the Obama administration also had agreed to expedite the delivery of F-16 fighter jets, naval frigates and helicopter gunships, as well as new remotely piloted aircraft for surveillance missions.
The United States, however, made some significant pledges too. These include improved market access for Pakistani goods, the creation of special economic zones, known as ROZs, along the Pak-Afghan border and a Bilateral Investment Treaty to stimulate investment in Pakistan.
The dialogue, however, also had some impressive optics: sitting side by side at the State Department, instead of confronting each other, a visit to the White House, an audience with Vice President Joe Biden, although he had no separate meeting with Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, and lots of smiles and warm handshakes.
Nuclear Issue
Mr Qureshi, however, told journalists on Thursday that his delegation had “very satisfactory” talks with the Americans on civilian nuclear cooperation and that the A. Q. Khan issue was “behind us”.
Diplomatic sources also confirmed the foreign minister’s claim, but added that the Americans did not want to discuss this issue publicly and had also advised Pakistan to remain silent.
The New York Times on Friday interpreted this meaningful silence as indicating that there would be more talks on this issue.
“Given Pakistan’s history of selling nuclear technology to Iran, Libya and North Korea, such an agreement would realistically be 10 or 15 years away,” a senior Obama administration official told the Times.
“Still, the administration was careful not to dismiss the idea out of hand,” the Times observed.
The Indian media — perhaps more concerned than the Pakistanis about the proposed nuclear deal — also noted that the Americans had not “said a no” to Pakistan’s request. “Instead they asked them to initiate steps that would restore the confidence of the international community in its nuclear programme.”
Quoting their own sources in Washington, the Indian media reported that Pakistan had apparently assured the Americans that it was willing to initiate the steps they had suggested.
The Americans told the Pakistanis that “they would closely monitor the developments” before considering the Pakistani request.
Topping the list is the complete disbanding of the Khan network, so that the US is convinced that it would not re-emerge.
The suggested steps also require international monitoring/inspection of Pakistan’s nuclear facilities.
The joint statement issued after the talks, however, stressed a mutual desire to reinforce strategic ties.
Both agreed to “redouble their efforts to deal effectively with terrorism” and would work together for “peace and stability in Afghanistan”.
The New York Times noted that the term “strategic dialogue” was by itself meant to send a message: “The administration used the term reserved for the substantive, wide-ranging exchanges it carries on with important countries like China and India. Pakistan and the United States held three such dialogues during the Bush administration,” the newspaper observed.
The Washington Post said the Obama administration’s primary goals for the gathering were to create a new level of bonding between the two countries and to win increased Pakistani cooperation in the fight against the Taliban and Al Qaeda. US officials, aware of Pakistan’s often-prickly response to perceived slights, were deferential to the Pakistanis and offered fulsome praise, the Post observed.
According to the Post, Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani was clearly the star of Pakistan’s delegation, if not its official leader.
“At a Tuesday evening reception at the Pakistani Embassy, Gen Kayani’s entry brought a hush to the crowd and the appearance of dozens of cellphone cameras, wielded by Pakistanis and Americans alike,” it reported.
The Washington Times said: “Washington’s long-time suspicion and mistrust of Pakistan and questions about its commitment to fighting extremists have vanished, and the Obama administration has agreed to fast-track Islamabad’s pending requests for military equipment.”
Bruce Riedel, a Pakistan expert at Washington’s Brookings Institution agreed with Gen Kayani that the military’s campaign in the Swat Valley and South Waziristan had improved the tenor of Islamabad’s relationship with Washington. But the success has also raised America’s expectations, he warned.
“Yes, you get a pat on the back,” Mr Riedel told NYT. “But now that you’ve shown you can do something, you’ve got to do more.”
If USA is planning an attack on Iran giving Pakistan a nuclear deal will make it look like a hypocrite and a laughing stock to the rest of the world, giving Pakistan a non -NPT signatory Pakistan a nuclear deal and attacking an NPT signatory Iran. Iran made this exact point against India during the Bush nuclear deal.The question is not whether Pakistan will get a civil nuclear deal? But whether its illegitimate nuclear programme get any legitimacy? This nuclear deal seems to be a smokescreen being floated...
Thread starter | Similar threads | Forum | Replies | Date |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rafael’s Next Gen Litening 5 targeting pod may be offered to India | Indian Air Force | 8 | ||
India may accept South China Sea offer | Foreign Relations | 0 | ||
K | India may be offered a share in GLONASS | Defence & Strategy | 7 | |
G | India may offer to train Myanmar Army | Indian Army | 18 |