The Syrian Crisis

[Armand2REP]

I tend to agree. It was probably Pantsir.

That video shown by Syrian state television didn't even sound like AAA, nor did it show anything being hit. Fake like CCP does it...

 

[pmaitra]

That video shown by Syrian state television didn't even sound like AAA, nor did it show anything being hit. Fake like CCP does it...

Well, whatever it is, as long as it was shot down, good on Syria.

Turkey is a pretty big country. If they were 'training' their pilots so close to the Syrian border in these trying times, there were definitely looking for trouble - and they got it.

 

[W.G.Ewald]

And you remain incapable of answering any of my questions.

This is your question.

Can you prove that Syria poses a threat to America and American interests?

I don't believe I made that claim. I believe Syria's production, storage, and deployment of chemical weapons is a threat to the entire region, especially in the civil war scenario.

Your "questions" in post #311 were just an anti-American rant, to which I do not feel compelled to respond. After all, they are a dime a dozen here.

 

[Son of Govinda]

World Powers Reach Syria Compromise

World Powers Reach Syria Compromise - WSJ.com

BEIRUT—An international meeting on Syria's crisis agreed to support the creation of a transitional body in Syria that would lead a United Nations-backed political transition, but left open whether and how President Bashar al-Assad would have to step aside.

The compromise agreement reached in Geneva on Saturday still offers the firmest support yet from Russia, a crucial ally of Mr. Assad, for a transition in Syria that could potentially strip the president of his executive authority whether he agrees to step aside or not.

Kofi Annan, the special envoy on Syria who convened the meeting, said Mr. Assad's role in a transition would have to be determined by Syrians themselves. He said he hoped to see results from the process "within a year."

But the carefully-worded agreement--after days of negotiations that culminated in Saturday's meeting--appeared to underscore the limited scope for an international, diplomatic resolution to the bloody conflict in Syria.

Officials at the meeting also said any chance for a political transition to succeed rests on the willingness of the Syrian regime and government to cooperate, a dim prospect given the hardened position of both sides as violence surged again this month

Mr. Assad, who has characterized the country's conflict as a war, said ahead of the meeting that he would not accept any solution imposed by international powers.

The wording of a final communiqué from the meeting calls for "clear and irreversible" steps toward a political transition. But it leaves open the question of Mr. Assad's fate in such a transition, a compromise reached after the U.S. agreed to back off an earlier draft that suggested certain members of government would have to be excluded from the process, an official at the meeting said.

The U.S. and Russia, at loggerheads for weeks over Syria, each defended their interpretation of the final text after the meeting.

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Mr. Assad would still have to go. "We agreed to some changes that we did not believe affected the substance, because frankly, we read the results to be the same. Assad will still have to go," Ms. Clinton told a press conference after the meeting. "He will never pass the mutual consent test, given the blood on his hands."

The statement says that a transitional body would have to be formed through "mutual consent," and could include current members of government. Mr. Annan said he expects the Syrian president to ask him to designate an interlocutor that would then begin talks with a chosen interlocutor for the opposition. Syria's opposition broadly refuses to take part in a national unity government with Mr. Assad or his associates still in power, and is divided on whether to negotiate with members of government on a transition at all.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted the plan doesn't stipulate Mr. Assad leave power, saying there is "no attempt in the document to impose on the Syrian people any type of transitional process."

Mr. Annan, who convened the meeting to help salvage a peace plan for Syria he brokered in April, warned that the country's deepening conflict posed "extreme dangers" to the region and the world, and reprimanded countries for competing agendas which have locked the international community in a stalemate while often fueling the violence inside Syria.

"No one should be in any doubt as to the extreme dangers posed by the conflict – to Syrians, to the region and to the world," he said in opening remarks. "This is the situation we allowed to emerge," he said.

Violence in Syria has surged in recent months, as the government unleashed heavy artillery including helicopter gunships, and antigovernment rebels became better equipped and more effective. June has been one of the deadliest months in an uprising that began with a peaceful protest movement and has increasingly veered toward civil war.

Syria's opposition barely heeded the talks in Geneva on another bloody day, pointing to the escalating violence in the country as proof of the futility of any diplomatic initiative. Government forces on Saturday drove opposition fighters out of Douma, a suburb of Damascus, after a weeklong shelling campaign by government forces that intensified on Friday night.

"Bodies are on the streets, no one can bury them or remove them," said Susan Ahmad, an activist in the suburbs of Damascus. Most residents in Douma had fled in the days leading to the apparently final assault on Saturday, Ms. Ahmad and other activists said.

Throughout the day, a handful of explosions were reported in Zamalka, another suburb of the capital, in Syria's largest city Aleppo, and the eastern city of Deir el-Zour, where activists said an oil pipeline was bombed. At least 55 people were killed in the violence, said the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a U.K.-based opposition watchdog.

The meeting in Geneva gathered foreign ministers from the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the U.S., Britain, France, Russia and China—as well as Turkey, Iraq, Qatar and Kuwait. European Union and Arab League officials also attended. It excluded Iran—after U.S. objection to the attendance of a Syrian ally seen as aiding the regime in its domestic crackdown—and Saudi Arabia, a main backer of the Syrian opposition.

The idea was to bring together the countries with the most influence on both the Syrian government and opposition, to help forge consensus on a transition plan that would then be presented to both sides in Syria. But the special envoy's opening comments also directed a warning to the international parties clashing over Syria—which have either bolstered the Syrian government or rebel fighters throughout the uprising—to halt their rivalries or risk a much wider conflict.

"Without unity between you, any action by one will lead to the opposite reaction by another, thwarting the aims of either side," he said. "We have already seen this taking place."

 

[ejazr]

Fawaz Gerges, one of the best experts on the ME IMO on the Syrian crisis

 

[pmaitra]

Fawaz Gerges is making certain comments that are disputable. I am not sure he has a clear idea who the minorities are. Moreover, the Houla Massacre, blamed on Assad by the West, is largely disputed, with conflicting reports emanating out of European sources.

He says Assad will be around for a while, "unfortunately." I would read between the lines. He did mention Iran and Iraq supporting Assad and sending in weapons, but he is silent on the smuggling of arms and imported mercenaries by Turkey and KSA.

I don't know much about Fawaz Gerges, but am willing to bet a small wager, that he is Sunni.

 

[ejazr]

^^^^ He is a Christian orthodox of lebanese origin.Fawaz Gerges - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I think the amount of support that is coming via Iran, Russia is in no war comparable from whatever little support if it is coming from Turkey/GCC states. I think its more likely that they want to do so but the US is holding them back and asking them to wait till the elections are over. Rebel equipment is still very small arms and rudimentary as compared to say the equipment Libyan rebels had when they were taking Gaddafi down.
At the same time though, Gerges opposed any military intervention of course particularly from the US as he thinks it will just lead to increasing the civil war to more bloody heights without geting rid of Assad as such.

 

[pmaitra]

^^^^ He is a Christian orthodox of lebanese origin.Fawaz Gerges - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

I think the amount of support that is coming via Iran, Russia is in no war comparable from whatever little support if it is coming from Turkey/GCC states. I think its more likely that they want to do so but the US is holding them back and asking them to wait till the elections are over. Rebel equipment is still very small arms and rudimentary as compared to say the equipment Libyan rebels had when they were taking Gaddafi down.
At the same time though, Gerges opposed any military intervention of course particularly from the US as he thinks it will just lead to increasing the civil war to more bloody heights without geting rid of Assad as such.

Thanks for the corrigendum about his religion. I accept that point of yours.

Other than that, I still believe Fawaz Gerges is biased, or he is compelled to speak what the West wants the world to hear.

There is dispute about the Houla massacre.

Rebels: Syrian Army shelled civilian areas, because they were against Assad.
Syria: Syrian Army was in Houla's suburbs, where the massacre took place, and found many civilians with bullet and knife injuries. This is confirmed by western reports and also from pictures. Such injuries are absurd, given the allegations of shelling.

Point and Counterpoint: BBC News - Syria crisis: Assad denies role in Houla massacre

Journalist Alex Thomson reports that Syrian rebels set him and his crew up to be killed by Syrian troops in a bid to show Damascus in a negative light.

Full report: http://www.rt.com/news/syria-journalist-rebel-trap-436/

Finally, neither side is willing to negotiate. Assad has blamed anti-talks rebels of murdering pro-talk rebels and blaming it on Assad. Rebels accuse Assad of not honouring cease-fire.

The British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said local doctors had confirmed the names of 80 government troops killed by the rebels.

Insurgents told the group they had killed more than 100 soldiers and destroyed some tanks in clashes across Syria, including Damascus and Idlib province in the northwest.

Syria's state news agency reported the burial on Monday of 30 members of government forces killed by rebels.

Another report: Syria rebels no longer respect truce, blame Assad | Reuters

 

[Armand2REP]

Assad massacres Syrians in funeral procession

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PLyfkN9g1Cs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RlBM2wj-44M

GRAPHIC

 

[pmaitra]

GRAPHIC CONTENT

Type in "Houla Massacre" in Google and do image search. The pictures reveal that in all likelihood, the victims were shot at close range or knifed, and not shelled.

 

[Armand2REP]

IDK about Houla... but this was a mortar attack.

 

[pmaitra]

^^

Yes, the video your posted definitely is artillery effect. Rebel sources claimed Syrian Army shelled civilians during Houla Massacre, which is impossible given the kind of injuries the victims have had.

 

[pmaitra]

Leaked: Shock footage allegedly shows Syrian family slain by rebels (GRAPHIC VIDEO)

GRAPHIC VIDEO

 

[pmaitra]

Houla massacre carried out by Free Syrian Army, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

By Chris Marsden
13 June 2012
The May 25 Houla massacre was perpetrated by opposition forces aligned with the Free Syrian Army (FSA), according to Germany's leading daily newspaper, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung.

Read more: Houla massacre carried out by Free Syrian Army, according to Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

[HR][/HR]

Syrian president condemns Houla massacre, rejects accusations

Assad Condemns Houla Massacre, Blaming Terrorists

 

[Armand2REP]

There is no proof of that, just that some of the victims were Shia... but then some were Sunni too so it proves nothing. This latest massacre was by Assad and you can watch it.

 

[pmaitra]

Houla: Rebels commit massacre, blame on Assad - German Newspaper

Original excerpt in German:

Rebellen erhalten 300-Millionen-Dollar-Fonds

Eine angegriffene Straßenkontrolle rief Einheiten der syrischen Armee zu Hilfe, die 1500 Meter entfernt eine Kaserne unterhält und umgehend Verstärkung schickte. Bei den Kämpfen um Hula, die 90 Minuten gedauert haben sollen, wurden Dutzende Soldaten und Rebellen getötet. Während der Kämpfe waren die drei Dörfer von Hula von der Außenwelt abgeriegelt.

Nach Angaben der Augenzeugen habe sich das Massaker in dieser Zeit ereignet. Getötet worden seien nahezu ausschließlich Familien der alawitischen und schiitischen Minderheit Hulas, dessen Bevölkerung zu mehr als neunzig Prozent Sunniten sind. So wurden mehrere Dutzend Mitglieder einer Familie abgeschlachtet, die in den vergangenen Jahren vom sunnitischen zum schiitischen Islam übergetreten sei. Getötet wurden ferner Mitglieder der alawitischen Familie Shomaliya und die Familie eines sunnitischen Parlamentsabgeordneten, weil dieser als Kollaborateur galt. Unmittelbar nach dem Massaker hätten die Täter ihre Opfer gefilmt, sie als sunnitische Opfer ausgegeben und die Videos über Internet verbreitet. Vertreter der syrischen Regierung bestätigten zwar diese Version, verwiesen aber darauf, dass sich die Regierung verpflichtet habe, öffentlich nicht von Alawiten und Sunniten zu sprechen. Staatspräsident Baschar al Assad gehört den Alawiten an, die Opposition wird überwiegend von der sunnitischen Bevölkerungsmehrheit getragen.

Unterdessen haben im Ausland lebende syrische Geschäftsleute in der qatarischen Hauptstadt Doha zur Finanzierung der syrischen Opposition und Rebellen einen Fonds mit 300 Millionen Dollar eingerichtet. Mustafa Sabbagh, der Präsident des syrischen Businessforums im Exil, stellte den Fonds vor. Wael Merza, der Generalsekretär des oppositionellen Syrischen Nationalrats, äußerte, die Hälfte des Betrags sei bereits ausgegeben und teilweise an die Freie Syrische Armee geflossen.

Der russische Außenminister Sergej Lawrow schlug derweil die Einberufung einer internationalen Konferenz zu Syrien vor, an der alle Länder teilnehmen sollten, die Einfluss auf die Akteure in Syrien hätten. Der Kreis müsse über die Länder hinausgehen, die sich in den "žFreunden Syriens" zusammengeschlossen hätten, sagte Lawrow. Denn diese Gruppe unterstütze lediglich die "žradikalen Forderungen" des Syrischen Nationalrats. Konkret nannte Lawrow neben den Mitgliedern des UN-Sicherheitsrats, der EU und der Arabischen Liga auch die Türkei und Iran. Ziel solle sein, den Annan-Plan "žkorrekt und ohne Zweideutigkeiten" umzusetzen.
[HR][/HR]
Translation of the antepenultimate paragraph of the article:

According to the eyewitnesses to the massacre had occurred during this period. Had been killed almost exclusively families and the Alawite minority Shiite Hulas, which is more than ninety percent are Sunni. Thus, several dozen members of a family were slaughtered, which had in recent years by Sunni converted to Shiite Islam. Killed were also members of the Alawite family Shomaliya and the family of a Sunni member of parliament, because this was considered a collaborator. Immediately after the massacre, the perpetrators would have filmed their victims, they issued a Sunni victims and spread the videos via the Internet. Although representatives of the Syrian government confirmed this version, but pointed out that the government had agreed not to speak publicly of Alawites and Sunnis. President Bashar al Assad is a member of the Alawites, the opposition is supported mainly by the Sunni majority.

Read full article: Neue Erkenntnisse zu Getöteten von Hula: Abermals Massaker in Syrien - Politik - FAZ

 

[ejazr]

@pmaitra

The Houla massacre is one incident. And you are quite right that rebels could have been involved in some of the killings. But Assad forces have also unwittingly gotten involved in waging a war on its own people. The overall issue is that there is pretty much a civil war like situation. Assad could have stepped down and replaced the President post and reached out to oppposition groups and co-opted them during the initial protests like in Tunisia or Egypt. The militaries in both states still yeild enormous influence even though Mubarak and Co. are gone. The human cost is that the Syrian people suffer while the proxy war between Iran vs Saudi states is fought out there.

From the Indian perspective, Syrian regime has been a close ally historically because of their Soviet leaning. They were one of the few that supported India's position on Kashmir rather than just be neutral like most other countries. But at present its really difficult for India to take a side of the Assad regime like the Russians have done. Neither does Syria provide strategic benefits like Iran does for example with our access to CAR states. This is why we see GoI basically, possibly reluctantly following the US/West/GCC stance on Syria.

For the US and Western countries, its a way of removing one of the last remaining Russian allies in the region. And certainly Russia will oppose its downfall with all its might. Israel would also very likely prefer the fall of the Assad regime as it acts as an arms conduit and safe haven for HAMAS and Hezbullah. The Saudi/GCC states want to establish their influence in Syria to keep a check on Iran. And both Iran and Iraq will continue to provide help to Assad to maintain their only other state ally in the region. Hezbullah and HAMAS are there, but they are not state actors and are unlikely to play a role as a state in the near future.

Assad still has support of his minority sect supporters but also big Sunni businessmen as well as most of the Army. Until the Army can stay intact and the Rebels don't get heavy weaponry, then it would continue like it has.

 

[pmaitra]

@pmaitra

The Houla massacre is one incident. And you are quite right that rebels could have been involved in some of the killings. But Assad forces have also unwittingly gotten involved in waging a war on its own people. The overall issue is that there is pretty much a civil war like situation. Assad could have stepped down and replaced the President post and reached out to oppposition groups and co-opted them during the initial protests like in Tunisia or Egypt. The militaries in both states still yeild enormous influence even though Mubarak and Co. are gone. The human cost is that the Syrian people suffer while the proxy war between Iran vs Saudi states is fought out there.

From the Indian perspective, Syrian regime has been a close ally historically because of their Soviet leaning. They were one of the few that supported India's position on Kashmir rather than just be neutral like most other countries. But at present its really difficult for India to take a side of the Assad regime like the Russians have done. Neither does Syria provide strategic benefits like Iran does for example with our access to CAR states. This is why we see GoI basically, possibly reluctantly following the US/West/GCC stance on Syria.

For the US and Western countries, its a way of removing one of the last remaining Russian allies in the region. And certainly Russia will oppose its downfall with all its might. Israel would also very likely prefer the fall of the Assad regime as it acts as an arms conduit and safe haven for HAMAS and Hezbullah. The Saudi/GCC states want to establish their influence in Syria to keep a check on Iran. And both Iran and Iraq will continue to provide help to Assad to maintain their only other state ally in the region. Hezbullah and HAMAS are there, but they are not state actors and are unlikely to play a role as a state in the near future.

Assad still has support of his minority sect supporters but also big Sunni businessmen as well as most of the Army. Until the Army can stay intact and the Rebels don't get heavy weaponry, then it would continue like it has.

• Assad has been killing his own people - yes.
• Assad should have stepped down - no.
• Why not? (1) Assad was elected, (2) the Rebels have consistently refused to talk.

Now note, even Gaddafi offered peace talks, but as they started receiving arms shipments, they became more obstinate and refused any dialogue. Moreover, Assad is under no compulsion to speak to outsiders (imported non-Syrian Arab mercenaries), and many of those in opposition who wanted to talk have also been eliminated by the Rebels.

I also disagree that it is difficult for India to side with Syria. If Assad goes, it will be replaced with a radical Wahhabi Sunni extremist group, and Al Qaida affiliated elements. Libya and Egypt are cases in point. Most of the Sunni world has been anti-India. Pro-India exceptions are Saddam Hussain and Ahmad Shah Masood. Muhammed Najubullah does not count, because he was a Communist.

I agree that the US wants to remove Russian influence.

Israel is acting rather hypocritically in this case. While they took all action when Turkish ships tried to enter Israel, citing violation of their maritime territory, they are silent supporters of this KSA-NATO backed smuggling of arms for Syrian Rebels, simply because of this silly paranoia about Iran. This short sighted act by Israel could cost them dear. Personally, I'd take Iran over the Saudis any day. They are much reliable partners, supporters in international fora, and treat Indian expats living there extremely well.

Also, the rebels' weapons are not trickles. See my earlier post - "Rebellen erhalten 300-Millionen-Dollar-Fonds." They don't have tanks and helicopter gunships, but are flush with RPGs, LMGs, MMGs, mortars, mines, apart from assault rifles. If all they had were trickles, they would have been decimated long time back.

 

[pmaitra]

On Civil War:

But Assad forces have also unwittingly gotten involved in waging a war on its own people. The overall issue is that there is pretty much a civil war like situation.

Assad has been killing his own people. Yes, I agree. What else would you expect? In every civil war, you kill your own countrymen. Abraham Lincoln did it. Stalin did it. So what? Let them fight it out. Why is Turkey and KSA needling them?

 

[Armand2REP]

Russia could have probably saved its position in Syria if they told Assad to step down. The US wants him gone more to hurt Iran than it does Russia. It is a full blown civil war and the regime forces are not exactly doing a good job of containment. Their situation becomes more precarious every week.