Neil
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Absolutely. The problem with everything above is they were all derivative of a single programme- PFAK FA. Neither the programme went as per our requirement nor is the technology mature enough. And the result is that Indian air capabilities are suffering. We are left with close to 250+ aircrafts that is unable to keep up with changes in the region and provide a sustained capabilities edge to IAF.The MKIs will definitely get mid-life upgrade; there is no doubt about that but the point is what kind of upgrade we are looking for. There was a concept called "Super Sukhoi" based on which it was thought that the MKI could be equipped with technologies and engines derived from front-line Su-35 & PAK-FA/Su 57. As you have indicated, Zhuk AESA and more reliable Al 41 FP engines were proposed along with assortment of changes in avionics, RAM coatings, and sensors. But the problem is that this concept is doing rounds for more than half a decade yet there is no significant progress on these two important components i.e. Engine and RADAR proposed for Super sukhoi from Russian side.
Hence, my inclination towards west. And the only country open to integrating its state of the art AESA on a Russian platform will be Israel.
The benefits are enormous. Israel AESA is one the best in its class in the world, source code wont be issue which only expands su30s ability to integrate more weapons profile particularly western and it will create commonality between LCA and su30s streamlining our logistics of weapons inventory.
Agreed, but It already is a bomb truck. In the future su30s should evolve as a fighter with long range detection, tracking and attacking aircrafts. Eg. Its huge RCS doesn't allow it to be air defence penetrating strike aircraft, but its large size does allow it to carry some of the biggest missiles in IAF inventory to carry out strikes from stand off distances.Latest, what I heard is that the Russia has proposed a joint working group with India to explore up gradation of MKI fleet in line with the up-gradation program for their own Su-30SM fleet. Quite a fair proposal as it doesn't intend on pulling a 5th Gen capability out of a 4th Gen aircraft; what they wanted incremental improvements aimed at better serviceability (improvement on engines) and survivability (sensor improvements). Like India, Russia also faces similar conditions w.r.t the defense expenditure (Russian GDP is very much affected by commodity prices) and it doesn't have enormous resource like the US to fund massive programs. Therefore, it's more reasonable to adopt high end up-gradation for a few squadrons which will act as spear of attack; for rest of the fleet, incremental up gradation should be followed to improve serviceability and most importantly equipping it better BVR AAMs. With the coming of 4+/5 gen AMCA, Rafales, MWF in numbers , probably by 2035, I only foresee the MKI role in IAF as a "Bomb Truck".
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It need to evolve similar to F15. A bomb truck with a profile as supporting fighter used for ECM/ECCM and long range stand off capability for larger mission goals.
Put in context: If mirages are conducting deep penetrating strikes, su30 are providing ELINT AND SIGINT support, acting like a mini JSTAR and can carry long range AAMs. Just an example.
HAL is a screw driver agency. Its classic slave company. It will do as much as it is asked for. Nothing more but certainly less.This discussion however begs a follow-up question; As the HAL is building MKI right from raw material as it claims, why doesn't it try to develop a test-bed aircraft for testing upgradation technologies into it? where it can try to integrate any AESA radar in combination with avionics proposed for 5th gen program like AMCA. Nashik assembly line which soon to become idle could explore tinkering existing MKIs for further improvements.
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